Adapting to Climate Change - Environmental Audit Committee Contents


Examination of Witnesses (Questions 101-131)

MR GIDEON AMOS OBE AND DR HUGH ELLIS

8 DECEMBER 2009

  Q101  Chairman: Good morning and thank you for coming in. You will have heard the previous evidence and, as I said earlier, we have got about half an hour to try and get through some of the key issues. Could I ask you to begin with what demands you think adaptation places on the planning system?

  Mr Amos: I think there are two broad areas. Of course there are hundreds of areas of adaptation one could look at but there are two broad areas clearly where we need to adapt the environment. One is in terms of the increased temperature, particularly exemplified by the urban heat island effect, and the other is managing water in its broadest sense, so that is fluvial flooding, coastal change and weather-related rainfall flooding. Those are two very broad areas. Obviously one could expand a lot more on all the adaptation measures needed, and I suppose the main point I want to make in response to your question, Chairman, is that the planning system, if you take a decades-long perspective, actually is a huge lever to create major environmental change. You can look at regional parks such as the Lea Valley, you can look at green spaces throughout cities, the fact that hundreds of our houses, post-War, have gardens, all these changes to the landscape crucially have had planning behind them, and of course river catchment planning is another tool in that armoury. I suppose the benefit of an active and purposeful approach to planning is that over the long term these changes can be made and new development can be used as a catalyst to try and retrofit the neighbouring neighbourhood at the same time. I suppose those are the kinds of changes we would like to see in the impacts of new development on existing towns and cities.

  Q102  Chairman: So in that way the planning system is capable of helping the country adapt to climate change. Are there other ways in which the system itself needs to be modified to make that easier for planners to make a contribution?

  Mr Amos: I think the most important thing for us is probably having a plan-led approach. There is a lot of evidence before you and Members about the need for strategies and the need for adaptation plans and green infrastructure strategies. None of these land-use changes is really going to take shape unless there is some sort of statutory plan-led process behind it. We regarded it as a huge step forward in 1990 when developments and planning applications became the subject of a plan-led approach. As it happens, just a brief point of history, Chairman, 100 years ago last Thursday Parliament got Royal Assent for the first Planning Act in the world which empowered local authorities for the first time to have development plans, `Town Planning Schemes', and that unleashed a whole generation of garden cities and garden suburb-type development. We will return to the subject of gardens, but I think it just shows how important a plan-led approach is and how important it is that we do not lose that in the next few years of undoubted change in policy and legislation.

  Q103  Chairman: On another point of history, the plan-led process you referred to in 1990 occurred when I was a Planning Minister.

  Mr Amos: I was aware of that.

  Q104  Colin Challen: You said that the planning system must be transformed if climate change is to be placed at the heart of decision-making. What is preventing this from happening at present?

  Dr Ellis: There are some complex reasons and we touched on these in the coalition work we did producing a framework for a new PPS[21] on climate change, but two or three top headlines would be political will, skills and culture, as perhaps the biggest driving force behind the difficulties that planning has to deliver. There are complexities in the structures of planning which we could probably sort out as well, but there are also complexities about the duties and priorities. One of the things that has to be addressed really carefully is what tasks we set the planning system to do. At the moment those tasks are confused and although there are critical duties in the 2004 and 2008 Acts on climate change, those duties are written in the weakest possible form, and so it is not surprising they do not necessarily drive transformational change. That means that local planners are conflicted about what they need to be doing. In our view, there is no greater challenge than climate change and the fact that we are not delivering anything like the way we should on the ground is scandalous and we need to sort it out, but that requires changes to skills and education and it requires changes to duties, and it requires changes to resources.


  Q105  Colin Challen: Are we going to get a two-tier system where major infrastructure projects now of course have a separate planning route and then there is all the rest. Are there going to be any lessons learned when this really comes into force next year?

  Dr Ellis: I do not think the two systems are well-related and there is already a fairly critical lesson there about the kind of narrative that we need from top to bottom on policy. There are the overarching principles of adaptation which are really well established. We know what we need to deliver mostly, but that kind of narrative is not clearly laid out. National policy statements are extremely controversial obviously and Parliament is examining them at the moment. The content on adaptation seems to me to be relatively good, but underneath that what we found is that the transformational PPS on climate change published in 2007 did not have that much effect on local government. Why did it not? Because even though the rhetoric was strong, it did not send a powerful enough signal to say that this is your first and foremost priority.

  Q106  Colin Challen: Can you give me an example of that signal in terms of being able to translate it into concrete terms?

  Dr Ellis: We have sent the planning system confused messages about priorities. We are talking about nothing less than the most significant transformation of the system post-War, and that requires very strong national prescriptive guidance. There is no other way forward because the amount of time we have left, given that we should have started adapting our cities a decade ago, is extremely short and that means that the overall national framework needs to set very clear guidance. We need to have national centres for knowledge which we talk about in our paper. It means that the profession needs to step up to the challenge through a very radical education programme. On top of all that you are talking about transforming local political leadership on climate change.

  Q107  Colin Challen: I get the impression that perhaps we have conflicting PPSs, some advocating other priorities. Could you provide any examples of that, if you agree?

  Dr Ellis: There is definitely a mixed message not between climate and housing but between climate and economic development. Economic development post-Stern should not be in conflict with dealing with climate change and a low-carbon economy, but I think in many local planners' minds, the traditional methods of economic development are taking precedence. That means that we are still engineering our cities and urban spaces to be problems for the future of climate change. We are not grasping overall nationally the need, for example, to consider the redistribution of population, which we are probably going to have to deal with if we do not get an agreement to limit temperature change below two degrees. That is the biggest conflict. Those things should be integrated. There is a huge opportunity to deliver a low-carbon economy but we have not managed somehow to grasp the opportunity yet.

  Q108  Colin Challen: Should PPSs be so prescriptive that they prevent for example building new housing on floodplains?

  Dr Ellis: There is still certainly some very disturbing practice given the risks of development on floodplains. I hasten to add that means that we then have to find sites for the housing we desperately need in other places, but the coalition document asks DCLG for a higher level of prescription for planning policy statements. To give you an example of the precise conflict, a planning policy statement's status in planning is defined only in case law, which is unhelpful. A national policy statement has clearly defined legal status for the new national framework. Those sorts of gaps and uncertainties could be resolved, but essentially this is not like any public policy-making that I have ever known. If we are to deal with climate change there has to be a level of clear central framework.

  Q109  Colin Challen: You make these points; do you think the DCLG is listening?

  Dr Ellis: Yes I do but I think there are barriers to them delivering on the ground. They can write what they like, but if local decision-makers and local practitioners are not skilled enough to deliver it and do not have the resources to deliver it and do not feel they have political support, then plainly that has little effect.

  Q110  Chairman: You mentioned that you thought the draft national policy statements were quite helpful. Do you want to enlarge on that a little bit?

  Mr Amos: Can I declare an interest, Chairman. I have accepted an appointment as an IPC[22] commissioner so I am leaving all the questions on NPSs to my colleague.

  Dr Ellis: The contents of section five of the overarching Energy NPS for example sets out what I regard as a reasonably straightforward, commonsense framework. You need to think about adaptation. It would be desirable if our new nuclear build was not within one metre of sea level, for example. However, there are difficulties I think—and this is a very important point—because the duties that exist on secretaries of state in the preparation of NPSs on climate to think about climate change have had some effect on adaptation and no effect on mitigation, which we are frankly terrified about, but the question is that those duties do not apply to the decision-maker, so there is no duty to think about climate change inside the IPC or placed upon the IPC. That means that there are big questions about whether or not the IPC has a sufficient skill-set (although of course there are some very talented people amongst the commissioners!) for example to interpret properly the UKCIP projections or the weather generator inside UKCIP to enable them to make a judgment about whether or not any of our infrastructure, our nuclear build, should be anywhere close to the North Sea, for example.

  Q111  Chairman: Just on an example local to my constituency, to respond to the likely establishment of another nuclear power station at Sizewell and the definite establishment of offshore wind power, National Grid are proposing to upgrade the transmission capacity. They are doing that through the upgrade of their overhead power lines. Presumably, an adaptation strategy would encourage the burying of power lines rather than creating more overhead ones at a time when one of the certainties is bigger storms, higher winds and more violent conditions?

  Dr Ellis: The IPC may very well conclude that but that is certainly what they would have to consider, absolutely.

  Q112  Martin Horwood: I want to follow up on this. That is quite a major spanner in the works you are throwing in terms of the new nuclear build because almost all the sites are going to be based on existing power station sites which are almost all on the coastline.

  Dr Ellis: Yes.

  Q113  Martin Horwood: So you think there is a major problem with the whole nuclear new build plan?

  Dr Ellis: There is undoubtedly a major problem. In TCPA[23] in the climate unit we have three sets of science. We have the IPC, we have the mainstream generally, but if we take where the science is going on climate change and sea level rises, by mid-century, if we do not get an agreement in Copenhagen, then the maximum sea level rise, if we lose all the ice, is 22 metres.[24] No-one is suggesting we get that necessarily by the end of the century but it does not seem sensible to have nuclear facilities with a lifetime of 150 years, 200 years post-decommissioning, anywhere near sea level.



  Q114  Martin Horwood: This is moving back on to some of the comments you made about green infrastructure and the planning of green infrastructure. CABE[25] in their evidence suggested that one of the problems was the lack of a clear national database of information about green infrastructure, and that it was not properly mapped. Do you think that there would be a benefit to planners in particular of having that database and having a very clear process of mapping and identifying green infrastructure?

  Mr Amos: I think also one of the points CABE made about assessing the quality of green space is particularly important in terms of whether green infrastructure are delivering the adaptational benefits or not, because there is a whole variety, so having a database and knowledge in that whole area has got to be beneficial. The short answer is yes.

  Q115  Martin Horwood: What would you include in that database? Would you include gardens and things like that?

  Mr Amos: Absolutely and clearly the whole issue of back gardens is central to this whole debate. There has been a small move forward with regulation to require planning permission before paving over front gardens but we did not make the same advance on back gardens and obviously with the classification of back gardens as previously developed land, and therefore brownfield land, the quantity of building on back gardens has to be a serious concern given that 60% of new housing is meant to be on brownfield. A huge amount of that could be impacting on gardens. The way the data is collected at the moment means that you cannot easily get at those figures. There is data on the quantity of development on existing residential land, and that is the closest you can get to an estimate of how much of that is garden land. It is a very difficult issue. Obviously the Mayor of London has been grappling with this as well. However, it must be central to value urban green space, and green space close to where people live, very highly in our planning processes, if we are concerned about adaptation, and the current system, partly because of the data gathering, does not do that.

  Q116  Martin Horwood: Can I just ask you about definitions. You said "urban green space" but you also said "green space close to where people live". I want to ask a specific question which is about some work that the old Countryside Agency did before it was abolished talking about "green space on the urban fringe", which is often some of the most volcanically contentious in planning terms because developers love it and local people obviously want to protect it. Do you think that urban fringe countryside should also be counted as part of that urban green space and identified and mapped and protected in that way?

  Mr Amos: Obviously we have pretty tough green belt policy to protect that urban fringe if that is the objective. I think for the adaptation debate what is particularly important is the fact that, as the Manchester research shows, a 10% decrease in green cover can mean a seven degree Celsius change in temperature. That is a massive change in temperature. It does not matter so much whether you are living on the urban fringe or right in the centre of an urban area or in the middle of suburban London, the important thing is to have that green cover and those green spaces integrated with the way people are living and where the housing and development is. I would suggest it is of the same value whether it is on the urban fringe or further in and we need to integrate these two much more closely.

  Q117  Martin Horwood: Groundwork UK suggested that all local authorities should be required to prepare a green infrastructure strategy as part of their LDF? What do you think of that?

  Mr Amos: I think having an LDF would probably be the first step in that direction.

  Q118  Martin Horwood: Do you think it is logical to do it on a local authority level or do you think, given what we know about the landscape and catchment areas, that these landscape policies need to be on a larger scale?

  Mr Amos: Exactly. Obviously there are some questions that can be dealt with entirely locally but there are also huge issues that need to be dealt with at a strategic level. Earlier with the previous witness you were mentioning river catchment planning, which obviously crosses local authority boundaries. We are concerned about rumblings of a move away from any kind of strategic or regional planning given that these problems are not local. We accept that the environmental debate is international, do we not, and we accept that these things need to be tackled over international boundaries. We need to recognise that when it gets down to a UK level, and an England level, some of these problems also breach, believe it or not, local authority boundaries. We are going to have to have solutions. Those may be new solutions on regional planning or sub-regional planning, different structures, different governance and so forth, but we need to have a strategic overview.

  Q119  Martin Horwood: Can I ask you about one specific sentence in your submission as well. In talking about the 60% re-use of brownfield land for redevelopment target, you said: "Regional Spatial Strategies and Local Development Frameworks have used this target to encourage urban regeneration and discourage potentially sustainable greenfield developments, rather than considering the benefits of proactive planning and re-use of brownfield and greenfield land to form a network of green infrastructure to contribute towards adaptation."[26] It is quite clear what the benefits of the proactive planning approach are for urban areas, but are you actually saying that local authorities could benefit the environment by proactively planning greenfield sites as well?

  Mr Amos: We are not suggesting that every single application would be better done on greenfield land—that would be quite wrong—but I think it does fall to us to speak up for the point that there are occasions where a greenfield location, particularly some which are very heavily farmed with perhaps high levels of chemicals, very poor biodiversity, perhaps neighbouring brownfield sites, could be part of a development that actually brings about environmental improvement through development. The RSPB has done a lot of work about biodiversity in urban gardens. Some of these options do come up, especially if public transport is also excellent perhaps around a country station. The important thing is that we are very happy to support the 60% brownfield target, but it is important to recognise that there are opportunities to do highly sustainable developments which improve the natural environment through development, on occasion, and it is not as simple as saying greenfield will always be bad.

  Q120  Mark Lazarowicz: In your submissions you say that there is a need for "a step change in the skills and education of decision-makers, both political and professional, in local and regional government."[27] What evidence is there of a coherent strategy for delivering a step change in the skills of planners? Is the necessary training available or does it need to be put in place?

  Dr Ellis: There is no doubt progress and the RTPI[28] have announced progress in the education of planners. I think given the scale of the challenge I keep coming back to these words "transformational change". That is not just about young planners being trained on climate, which needs to be mainstreamed much more centrally, but it is also about continuing professional development. You almost need to take the profession out for a month and re-skill them on climate change. When you look at some of the statistics that are quoted in our submission from the Arup study about the number of planning applications in authorities that go through the system with no consideration of climate change or adaptation at all, it is frightening. There is also the interface between professional planners and particularly between elected members and their training. Our experience of that is difficult because there are some fantastic elected members out there prioritising climate change, but there is also a significant body of elected members who remain climate deniers, which is very difficult.


  Q121  Mark Lazarowicz: Should central government be doing anything to help address the skills gap?

  Dr Ellis: Absolutely they should. They need to put as much pressure as possible on the profession to evolve and change and re-skill itself. That is partly about resources. Some of that is pointing in the right direction. In terms of communicating key strategies, to give one example, it would be the renewable energy strategy, so a programme of communicating that to both professionals and to elected members is absolutely critical if we are going to get the right kind of renewable energy, and the same applies to adaptation.

  Q122  Mark Lazarowicz: Can local government do more to either improve skills within a particular local authority or even the climate of opinion or understanding amongst local planners and local communities, for example?

  Dr Ellis: I certainly think it is beginning to happen, but the problem we have got is that it is driven by events rather than driven by strategy, so we have the North West, we have had floods elsewhere and we now have increasing awareness in the profession about the allocation of housing in extremely vulnerable areas to flood. We need to be more strategic about that. That does require a big programme of public communication, I guess, to make this work.

  Q123  Mark Lazarowicz: I was interested in what you were saying about a lot of local councillors denying climate change. Are they denying climate change is happening or do they just not think it is that important?

  Dr Ellis: When you seek to pursue climate through the energy route—I have been roasted many a time, probably fairly, at events on renewable energy, particularly onshore wind, so where you approach the climate debate from that perspective there is tremendous resistance, perhaps for understandable reasons. There simply is not the grasp of the scale and urgency and there simply is not the accessible science or information. One critical example of that is that UKCIP does a fantastic job but the way that they have conveyed risk and probability through their findings is not one that is easily understood, so what they are saying is should you pick a 50/50 risk of a major event happening or an 80% risk of it happening, and that kind of probability does not work. What people need at the local level is, as the previous witness said very well I think, a clear scenario about what will happen in their community and then people can coalesce around that.

  Mr Amos: Could I add very briefly that we are leading a European project to provide the skills and methodology to produce Adaptation Action Plans which would then do exactly as Hugh says: identify what the changes are in the particular area and how then you respond to those through adaptation measures in development plans.

  Q124  Chairman: You have advocated a Climate Change Technical Advice Body. Why on earth do we need yet another organisation?

  Dr Ellis: A coalition of 60 organisations came up with that idea. I was very struck, given that there is a huge presumption not to have another body and yet more complexity, about the massive consensus there was around that. That is because there needs to be, as I have just described, a body at sub-national level really, providing local authorities with a trusted source of information. There are two dimensions to it which are important. The first is that we must not have adaptation organisations split off from mitigation because strategising about both resolves the conflicts that exist between them. Some mitigation strategies will conflict with adaptation strategies. Unless that is done and the methodologies and data are collected by one body, there is a horrible risk of conflict between the two ideas. The CCTAB[29] idea was not simply to re-create organisations but to pool the information in an accessible form. It is interesting for example that although the Environment Agency and UKCIP work well together, I am sure, there is no formal agreement between the organisations and there is significant uncertainty amongst local decision-makers about what each organisation's remit might be. That is replicated in mitigation, particularly in relation to information on energy for example. The idea of the CCTAB is essentially a laboratory. It is not a political body, if you like, but a laboratory where you can access—and the phrase has been used—in a one-stop shop everything you need to know to come up with a decent climate response in a local authority area. There is a fairly desperate need for that, although little sign that it will appear, because the greatest sin of all in responding to climate change is the fact that most local decision-makers do not know where to access critical information that would really transform communities.


  Q125  Chairman: If we accept there is a case for this body, who will pay for it?

  Dr Ellis: I have two responses to that. The first one is we did not work out who would pay for it. We hoped that it would sit within the regional planning function and obviously there is debate about where the regional planning function might go. There are other bodies and other examples of how that is done, in relation to aggregates planning for example, where it is dealt with in a similar way, so we were not thinking of creating an entirely new structure. It sits within the regional planning function, but the other side of that coin, which is reflected by Stern and the Manchester mini Stern,[30] is simply the cost of not having an effective response to climate change, which seems to be so appalling and so extreme. I do not mind if we go down and lose the argument on climate change for good reasons but losing the argument on climate change because we could not find the data does seem to be too appalling a prospect to contemplate.


  Q126  Martin Horwood: Lots of the issues we have talked about today touch on areas outside of planning. We have talked about energy and water management and things like that, and you could add in transport and health. The only body that exists to co-ordinate the response to adaptation at the moment is the Government's Adapting to Climate Change Programme. Do you think that has the necessary resources and clout to actually bring all these different people together and make them work together in a co-ordinated way?

  Dr Ellis: All I can say is that I do not see it happening at the moment. I would suspect that the departmental split on responsibilities for climate change will probably have to be considered very carefully. There is certainly a need for a strong unity of purpose between the three departments with responsibilities on climate change, in particular the relationship between Defra and DCLG. I am not suggesting they do not work well with each other but it is in the nature of departmental conflicts that we do not have time for any kind of uncertainty. Let me apply this test: are we driving towards adaptation in urban and rural areas effectively enough to avoid significant damage to civil society and the economy? No, absolutely not. What that will require is a much more unified approach, centrally, to dealing with adaptation and much more resource.

  Q127  Chairman: What can the planning statistics tell us about how current buildings are being improved?

  Mr Amos: I covered this in one of my earlier answers, Chairman. Actually it does not tell us an awful lot. One of the crucial issues that we have already pointed to is how much development is going on in urban gardens, and the figures do not tell us that specifically. There are all sorts of other things the data do not tell us. For example, planning permissions are not monitored so we do not know how many permissions are out there. We know there are a number of decisions but we do not know what permissions have been granted, so the debate about the effectiveness of planning and adaptation and a whole range of other areas is somewhat obfuscated by that. I guess we are really arguing, particularly with regard to development of green space, that there might always be important development impacts on flooding, water management patterns, those kinds of impacts of development which we need to be gathering some data on, and we are not at the moment.

  Q128  Chairman: What is the cost of doing that?

  Mr Amos: When the TCPA is large enough to have a huge financial department we could estimate the cost, but I am afraid we have not got that far in our submission, Chairman.

  Q129  Mark Lazarowicz: As you well know, 80% of the buildings that will be around in 2015 have already been built. Does the Government have a coherent approach to encouraging the adaptation of existing buildings and what should the Government be doing to encourage owners of those builders to do so?

  Mr Amos: One of the interesting things about planning is that when it comes to climate the whole area is going to change. It does not actually matter whether it is an area zoned for development. The whole country is going to be subject to a change in temperature and other changes, so environmental change will be happening across existing urban built-up areas and sites of new development, so to answer your question I think that we need to be seizing the opportunities that new development offer to retrofit existing neighbourhoods. We also of course need retrofitting of existing neighbourhoods even where there is no new development, and that might be regeneration schemes. Ironically, it could be the case—and Hugh referred to movements of population earlier—that large amounts of our housing stock become pretty much untenable, for example very small flats in highly dense urban areas with a heat island effect, with insufficient ventilation, these kinds of units may need to be replaced on a fairly large scale, so ironically there may be an even greater need for development and redevelopment of existing neighbourhoods as well as retrofitting of the buildings one keeps.

  Dr Ellis: There is a priority in terms of section 106 or CIL[31] money that is generated through planning, particularly on the social justice aspect of that, because some of the scenarios the University of Manchester are generating for where Manchester city might end up are already indicating that the urban heat island effect is much more severe and will have a much more lasting effect on populations who are least able to adapt to it. If there was prioritisation about the retrofitting it would certainly be in that direction.


  Q130  Chairman: Do you think there is an opportunity to encourage both retrofit but also in the case of new build better environmental standards by offering people concessions in the planning system? One of the perennial complaints is the delays that are incurred by developers. If there was a fast track offered for schemes which achieved higher environmental standards, would that be appropriate?

  Mr Amos: Do you mean like eco-towns, Chairman?

  Q131  Chairman: There are all sorts of other problems associated with that but someone who is trying to get permission to put up a dozen houses on the edge of a village, it might take him two or three years to get through the process. If it could be given in two or three months by saying these will be zero-emissions houses, would that be a good idea?

  Mr Amos: I mention eco-towns partly in jest, but it was an attempt to do something quickly in terms of an exemplar. It ran into some problems, although now the local authorities are very supportive. I suppose there is always a danger of setting up a special procedure in planning for a special kind of development. My stock answer would be that if it is such an excellent development, it should be getting permission straight away anyway, it should be meeting all the policies and standards, so it should be fast-tracked. Why that is not happening is another question. I do not know if my colleague wants to add anything.

  Dr Ellis: Absolutely. I would also highlight one of the recommendations in the coalition document which is about climate change being the first amongst equals of material considerations. At the moment climate change is so novel I have yet to see a planning application refused because of its climate impact, even now, which is again fairly disastrous. If climate change was raised up as one of the critical considerations, then in theory that would solve that problem because developers coming along being able to meet that high standard on climate change would find their pathway through the planning system much easier.

  Chairman: I think we have probably come to the end of our time. Thank you very much for coming. Climate is a very crucial aspect to all of this so we are grateful to you for your evidence.





21   Planning Policy Statement Back

22   Infrastructure Planning Commission Back

23   Town and Country Planning Association. Back

24   Note from witness: These comments on the prospect of a much higher sea level rise than government predictions are based on a paper by Jim Hansen, "Scientific reticence and sea level rise", published on 24 May 2007. Back

25   Commission for Architecture and the Built Environment Back

26   Ev 52 Back

27   Ev 50 Back

28   Royal Town Planning Institute Back

29   Climate Change Technical Advice Body Back

30   Deloitte MCS ltd, "Mini-Stern for Manchester: Assessing the economic impact of EU and UK climate change policy on Manchester City Region and the North West, September 2008 Back

31   Community Infrastructure Levy Back


 
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