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The Government is broadly right to use the objective of limiting the rise in average global temperature to no more that 2°C as the backbone for its targets and budgets. Its approach to setting emission reduction targets based on equalising per capita emissions globally is sensible and equitable. But the Government must be ready, if needed, to establish credible emissions reduction pathways that go well beyond what is currently regarded as politically possible.
The Government's position in international climate change negotiations must be predicated on getting emissions to peak as soon as possible. This will be very challenging but a failure to reverse the rise in global emissions before 2020 could render much of the UK's domestic action meaningless.
The Committee on Climate Change is right to use the IPCC's findings as a basis for its work. But they must keep scientific developments under review, first as part of the review that will be undertaken in preparing its advice on the fourth budget period, and second following the publication of the IPCC's 5th Assessment Report. The Committee on Climate Change and the Government should take into account that the growing evidence base for climate change impacts is reducing levels of scientific uncertainty, emissions are still growing and impacts are occurring faster and in more damaging ways than was previously thought likely. Both the Committee on Climate Change and the Government must be open to the possibility that as our scientific knowledge and understanding grows the case for taking action beyond the commitments we have already made will grow. There is a case for taking a more precautionary approach and adopting targets at the upper end or in excess of what is currently recommended by the IPCC.
There are currently no credible ways to reduce emissions faster than the Committee on Climate Change has recommended. The Government should prioritise reducing the likelihood that temperatures will exceed 2°C down from a level that is 'as likely as not' to at least 'unlikely'. This is more important than aiming for a lower temperature rise target.
Ministers must ensure that policy makers in all parts of government have a good understanding of the importance of limiting cumulative emissions.
We recommend the Government should move to a target of a 42% cut by 2020 and should implement the intended budget irrespective of whether or not the EU moves to a 30% target for cutting its emissions. Setting a target of 42% now and moving to the intended budget should increase the long-term stability of the policy framework by removing any uncertainty about whether the higher target and budget might be imposed. But the Government should only move to increase the 2020 target once it is on track to meet its current targets and budgets.
The Government must deliver the carbon savings it has identified in the Low Carbon Transition Plan and then increase the rate at which emissions are falling to meet the 2-3% annual reduction recommended by the Committee on Climate Change. In doing so it must take account of the milestones that the Committee is using to monitor progress. In responding to the call by the Committee on Climate Change for a 'step change', the Government must strengthen existing policies and bring forward new measures, which must be rigorously monitored. Strengthening the policy framework and bringing forward new measures to get the UK to meet its existing targets and budgets are higher priorities than setting more stretching targets, even if new targets would be justified on the basis of science. Unless we are on track to meet current targets, increasing targets will only widen the shortfall in delivery.
The Government cannot place too much reliance on the price of carbon to drive investment in low-carbon technologies as the current price is too low and too volatile. It must put the right regulatory framework in place to ensure that the right investment decisions are made. It is vital that we do not invest in the wrong high-carbon infrastructure. Through interventions in the market and complimentary policy measures, using the full range fiscal and policy instruments available, the Government should drive up the price of carbon steadily to a level where renewable and low-carbon investments become economically viable.
The management of the carbon budget is as vital as the management of the fiscal budget. It requires the same level of political attention and civil service commitment, and the same degree of parliamentary scrutiny. Our successors should lead the way in rigorously monitoring the robustness of the carbon budgets and the progress the UK makes in meeting them.
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