5 Conclusions
86. The carbon targets and budgets will only be successful
in keeping the rise in global average temperature below 2°C
if there is both international and domestic action. The UK's targets
and budgets must be scientifically credible, based on an equitable
share of the global burden and lead to a transformation of the
economy.
87. International commitments are meaningless unless
they are backed by credible commitments on action to be taken
domestically. Domestic action will achieve nothing in terms of
the overall climate objective unless other countries are making
efforts commensurate with their share of the global burden. It
is right that the UK should provide a clear signal about its commitment
to domestic action in support of international efforts. It is
crucial that the UK shows leadership and the UK's negotiating
position in any future talks on climate change that follow the
Copenhagen Accord will only be credible if developing countries
see that our position is backed by real commitments to action.
88. The transition to a low-carbon economy presents
an opportunity for the UK to position itself to take advantage
of emerging low-carbon markets and to develop expertise in low-carbon
technology and climate change adaptation. The UK seems reluctant
to move unilaterally but unless it does it is unlikely to secure
true competitive advantage in a low-carbon economy. Despite the
gains from being an early adopter in terms of skills and knowledge
there are risks, especially if global standards adopt an approach
at odds with that pursued by the UK. The risks can be minimised
if the UK is active in shaping the international standards that
will govern a low-carbon global economy. The short-term cost and
loss of competitiveness is better than paying a much higher cost
to mitigate emissions and adapt to climate change in the long-term.
We make similar points in our recent report on green jobs and
skills.
89. The UK has policies that have been successful
in reducing emissions but not sufficiently quickly to meet its
targets and budgets in the longer-term. There needs to be a step
change in the rate at which emissions are falling and the policy
framework must be strengthened and new policies introduced. The
UK needs a flexible and adaptive policy response but also one
that gives some certainty about the shape of policy going forward.
It is important that we get the right investment framework with
necessary policy and fiscal incentives to encourage long-term
investments and changes in behaviour. The EU ETS remains a centrepiece
of the Government's approach to reducing emissions and we will
make some recommendations on it in a report we will publish shortly.
90. Climate change is probably the most significant
challenge to sustainable development. The move from business as
usual to stable atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases
is not a small perturbation around an existing development path
but involves moving our economy from its existing development
path to a new one.[208]
Going forward growth must be based on the principles of sustainable
development and must avoid negative impacts on social and ecological
systems. Tackling climate change should be integral to the broader
goals of entrenching socioeconomic development and equity throughout
the world.[209] There
is inertia in social and economic systems but overcoming this
will be helped by linking climate change with the broader issues
of sustainable consumption, human rights and the promotion of
democratic values, as societies across the globe towards more
sustainable development pathways.[210]
91. We must live within environmental constraints.
There should be some means of accounting for emissions on a consumption
rather than production basis in order to account for the fact
that developed countries like the UK are responsible for many
of the emissions in other parts of the world.[211]
A means for measuring green growth or some other alternative measure
of wealth may also need to be developed.[212]
208 Hepburn and Stern, A new global deal on climate
change, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol 24, Nov 2008,
p260 Back
209
University of Copenhagen, Synthesis Report from Climate Change:
Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions, held in Copenhagen
March 2009 see-http://climatecongress.ku.dk/pdf/synthesisreport Back
210
University of Copenhagen, Synthesis Report from Climate Change:
Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions, held in Copenhagen
March 2009 see-http://climatecongress.ku.dk/pdf/synthesisreport Back
211
Q 80 and Q 207 Back
212
Q 178 Back
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