Written evidence from Professor Norman
Dombey, University of Sussex
SUMMARY OF
ARGUMENT
After the Second World War the US passed
the McMahon Act in 1946 in an attempt to preserve its monopoly
of nuclear weapons. In 1958 the US amended the McMahon Act so
that the US may transfer nuclear weapon design information, nuclear
materials and specialised components to allies, that have made
`substantial progress in the development of atomic weapons'. This
means the ability to build thermonuclear weapons (H-bombs).
The UK is the only beneficiary of this Amendment. In that sense
the US-UK relationship for nuclear cooperation for defence purposes
really is special. Under the Mutual Defence Agreement (MDA)
of 1958 the UK is not allowed to communicate any information transferred
to it by the US to third parties.
US scientists noted after their first
meeting with their UK counterparts after the MDA came into force
in 1958 that `it appeared likely that certain advances made by
the United Kingdom would be of benefit to the United States'.
This referred in particular to the spherical secondary developed
by Keith Roberts, Bryan Taylor and colleagues at Aldermaston.
A second meeting of scientists from both
sides under the MDA was held in September 1958. At this meeting
actual "blueprints, material specifications, and relevant
theoretical and experimental information" of warheads were
exchanged. This allowed the UK to build US-designed weapons in
this country.
Aldermaston and the Treasury have subsequently
learned that it is much safer to copy established US designs than
to design a new warhead.
Since 1958 all UK nuclear weapons contain
elements of US design information and therefore those designs
cannot be communicated to third parties without US permission.
Hence it is not possible to consider sharing nuclear weapon information
with France.
The effect of the 1959 Amendment to the
1958 Agreement is to allow the US to transfer to the UK what Senator
Anderson called "do-it-yourself kits" for making nuclear
weapons.
At Nassau in 1962 the Prime Minister
suggested, and the President agreed, that some part of UK forces
would be assigned as part of a NATO nuclear force and targeted
in accordance with NATO plans. British forces under this plan
will be assigned and targeted in the same way as other NATO nuclear
forces.
"During the Cold War, NATO's nuclear
forces played a central role in the Alliance's strategy of flexible
response. To deter major war in Europe, nuclear weapons were integrated
into the whole of NATO's force structure, and the Alliance maintained
a variety of targeting plans which could be executed at short
notice."[138]
But even during the Cold War, the control
arrangements for the UK's Polaris fleet were not transparent.
While Defence Ministers from NATO countries
dutifully met twice a year in the Nuclear Planning Group after
1990 there was generally nothing to discuss other than disposal
of old weapons. No communiques were issued updating NATO's new
nuclear posture.
NATO has radically reduced its reliance
on nuclear forces. According to the NATO website `their role is
now more fundamentally political, and they are no longer directed
towards a specific threat'.
I conclude that there is no meaningful
assignment of the Trident force to NATO, since NATO no longer
has a nuclear posture.
NATO may not have a nuclear posture but
the United States certainly does have one. Its Single Integrated
Operational Plan or SIOP specifies how American nuclear weapons
would be used in the event of nuclear war.
It seems to me that the only possible
meaning of "assigned to NATO" or the equivalent phrase
"international arrangements for mutual defence and security"
is that the UK Trident fleet is in practice assigned to the US:
it operates in conjunction with the US fleet under SIOP or the
successor to SIOP.
By sleight-of-hand the Trident fleet
is a national fleet and a NATO fleet at the same time.
The US possesses a National Target Base
of potential nuclear strike targets as part of SIOP or the successor
to SIOP. These are drawn up at US Strategic Command [STRATCOM]
headquarters in Omaha where there is a UK liaison mission. Any
British plans can be incorporated if approved into the US operational
plan. There is a Nuclear Operations and Targeting Centre in London
which co-ordinates with STRATCOM. But the targetting software
is provided by STRATCOM and its affiliates in the US. The software
includes data which the UK cannot provide by itself.
The UK could not target New York because
STRATCOM would not prepare the target software.
It seems to me that while the UK may
well have had good reasons in 1958 for entering into the MDA with
the US, it needs to reassess the situation. It is very surprising
that the MDA has endured for 50 years with only minor amendment
to its terms. In my opinion it is very unlikely that it will survive
the next 50 years.
I hope that I have demonstrated that
the US-UK relationship in nuclear matters is unequal. The UK is
the perpetual supplicant and the US is the provider. This cannot
be healthy: it means that the UK government lives in constant
fear that the US may not supply or may restrict the supply of
whatever it requires for nuclear defence.
Today nuclear weapons are much better
understood but the codes describing their behaviour were developed
in the US, not the UK. Los Alamos and Livermore Laboratories would
scarcely notice if Aldermaston gave up its work.
If Scotland were to secede from the UK
it is likely that England would have to give up possession of
nuclear weapons. This would lead to the termination of the MDA
and the Polaris Agreement. The Special Relationship would come
to an end. It would be sensible for the government to make contingency
plans for that possibility.
"In sum, the benefits to Britain
of its nuclear weapons are at best meagre and mainly hypothetical.
What then of the costs?
The financial burden is not really significant
(about 5% of the defence vote). However, the need for technological
support is largely responsible for the country's political dependence
on America."
1. BACKGROUND
1.1 The agreement between the UK and US on co-operation
on nuclear energy for mutual defense purposes (I use the US spelling
because that is what was used in the original agreement signed
on 3 July 1958 and is a pointer to the subordinate role of the
UK in the relationship) originates in the Manhattan Project of
the Second World War when under the Quebec Agreement the UK, US
and Canada pooled their resources to work on nuclear energy for
both military and civil applications. Following the defeat of
the Axis powers, the US Congress which had not been informed of
the Quebec Agreement passed an Atomic Energy Act [the 1946 McMahon
Act] which severely limited the transfer of restricted nuclear
information and materials to any other state. One of the major
goals of British policy after 1946 was to resume the nuclear relationship
with the US.[139]
This goal was achieved in 1958 by the passage of an Amendment
to the US Atomic Energy Act which allowed the transfer by the
US of nuclear information and materials for military use to allies
which have made "substantial progress" in nuclear weapon
development. This was code for the capacity to make thermonuclear
weapons (hydrogen bombs) in addition to fission weapons (atomic
bombs).
1.2 Britain demonstrated that it had made substantial
progress in nuclear weaponry when it exploded Short Granite in
May 1957 in the presence of US observers which was followed by
a meeting of US and UK nuclear scientists in August 1957 when
the British were allowed to discuss their weapon designs: to the
surprise of the Americans they demonstrated a compact two-stage
thermonuclear weapon with a spherical secondary. Short Granite
was a hydrogen bomb [a two-stage thermonuclear device] but did
not attain the desired yield of 1 MT (equivalent to one megaton
of TNT equivalent). Nevertheless the Grapple X test of 8 November
1957 did achieve a yield of over 1 MT and was followed by the
Grapple Y and Z tests of 28 April and 2 September 1958 which refined
the design and achieved the design target of a warhead weighing
less than 1 ton with a yield of 1 MT.
1.3 On the political front the US amended the
McMahon Act on 2 July 1958 allowing the first of the two agreements
between the US and UK on co-operation on the uses of atomic energy
for mutual defence purposes: the first of which was signed on
3 July 1958. The Agreement was amended the following year to include
matters that were more politically difficult for Congress to deal
with. The 1958 Agreement as amended in 1959 together with subsequent
amendments which extend the time frame lay the framework for the
US-UK Mutual Defence Agreement (MDA) which still is in force today
over 50 years later. I would like to consider it in some detail.
1.4 The preamble of the 1958 Agreement is important
as it outlines its basis in US law and thus how the US views the
MDA. The first two clauses state (i) that both the US and the
UK need to deploy nuclear weapons for their "mutual security
and defense" and (ii) that requirement may well involve thermonuclear
weapons in addition to fission weapons since both the US and the
UK have made substantial progress in the development of atomic
weapons. The third clause points out that both the US and the
UK participate in "international arrangements" [code
for NATO] for their "mutual defense and security". The
remainder of the preamble states that the transfer of information,
equipment and materials allowed under the agreement will benefit
their mutual defence and security.
1.5 Article I then spells out that the transfers
allowed by the Agreement will promote mutual defence and security
since both the US and the UK participate in "an international
arrangement for their mutual defense and security". Note
that the agreement to co-operate is limited to "while the
United States and the United Kingdom are participating in an international
arrangement for their mutual defense and security" so that
if the UK were to withdraw its nuclear forces from the "international
arrangement", ie NATO or its equivalent, the US would no
longer be bound by the agreement.
1.6 Part A of Article II is a paragraph which
is common to all agreements between the US and its NATO allies
which allows those allies to receive classified information about
nuclear weapons so that US nuclear weapons can be transferred
to them in time of war when SACEUR, who is always a US General,
would take command. By this means, allied air forces in NATO can
practice with dummy weapons on board. NATO allies who can take
advantage of these arrangements are Belgium, Germany, Greece,
Holland, Italy and Turkey. Part B of article II is only for the
benefit of allies that have made substantial progress in nuclear
weapons, that is to say, Britain and France. President de Gaulle
refused to allow France to participate in these arrangements,
so Britain is the unique beneficiary. In that sense the US-UK
nuclear co-operation arrangements for defence purposes really
are special.
1.7 Part B of Article II allows the US and UK
to exchange nuclear weapon designs together with information needed
for the fabrication of nuclear weapons.
1.8 Article III concerns nuclear-powered submarines.
Britain was able to launch its hunter-killer submarine fleet as
a result of the transfer of a complete reactor propulsion plant
authorised by Article III together with the transfer of high enriched
uranium 235 to fuel the reactor. Note that Britain needs to pay
for that U-235 under Part C and to indemnify the US against liabilities
under Part E so that it is not correct to say that this Agreement
has no spending implications.
1.9 Article VII does not allow the UK to communicate
any information transferred to it by the US to third parties without
authorisation by the US. In particular the US retains intellectual
property rights for any nuclear weapon design information transferred
by it to the UK under Article II Part B.
1.10 The effect of the 1959 Amendment is to
allow the US to transfer to the UK what Senator Anderson in the
hearings of the subcommittee of the US Joint Committee on Atomic
Energy called "do-it-yourself kits" for making nuclear
weapons. While Article II Part B of the original Agreement allows
US nuclear weapon design information to be communicated to the
UK, the new Article III bis allows complete non-parts of nuclear
weapons to be transferred together with "source, by-product
and special nuclear material, and other material, ... for use
in atomic weapons" to be transferred. Special nuclear material
refers to uranium 235 and plutonium; source material refers to
natural uranium or uranium 238 while by-product material refers
to tritium and lithium 6.
1.11 I will not pursue the matter here but this
arrangement whereby as General Lopez for the US Department of
Defense conceded at the hearings: "1. you can transfer design
information, and 2. you can transfer non-nuclear components, and
3. you can transfer nuclear materials unfabricated if you apply
all the sections of the law that are pertinent to the subject.
Now, taking all these three things together, one could, if he
got all of them, build himself an atomic weapon. I don't think
that there is any question but that this technicality exists.
We would not say that it does not." So as I concluded in
an article written 25 years ago "in the future language of
the NPT, the US-UK Agreement of 1958 [as amended] does not allow
the direct transfer of nuclear weapons but it does allow the indirect
transfer of nuclear weapons from the US to the UK". Yet this
is forbidden by Article I of the NPT which came into force in
1970.
1.12 Almost immediately following the passage
of the Amendment to the McMahon Act and the 1958 US-UK Agreement
on Co-operation a meeting of scientists from both sides was held
in August 1958 in Washington. At that meeting there was an exchange
of information on the gross characteristics of the weapons in
stockpile or in production. The US noted that "it appeared
likely that certain advances made by the United Kingdom would
be of benefit to the United States". This referred in particular
to the spherical secondary developed by Keith Roberts, Bryan Taylor
and colleagues at Aldermaston. The original Ulam-Teller design
developed in the US involved a cylindrical secondary and the subsequent
adoption of a spherical secondary by the US following the 1958
Co-operation Agreement allowed the US to build compact thermonuclear
weapons as they do today.
1.13 A second meeting of scientists from both
sides under the MDA was held in Albuquerque in September 1958.
At this meeting actual "blueprints, material specifications,
and relevant theoretical and experimental information" of
warheads was exchanged. This allowed the UK to build US weapons
in this country. Note that details of the XW-47 warhead were included:
this was the warhead that was to be fitted to the US Polaris missiles
in the early 1960s. This was replaced by the W-58 on US A3 Polaris
missiles from 1964 until 1982 whose design would have been passed
on to the UK under the MDA for use in the UK fleet. Details of
the Mark 28 hydrogen bomb were also transferred: that was used
by the RAF from 1961 onwards and called Yellow Sun Mark II [Yellow
Sun Mark I was the high yield fission bomb referred to above].
1.14 The present Trident fleet is reported to
use a version of the W-76 warhead first developed by Los Alamos
National Laboratory in 1972. Indeed since the massive over-budget
expenditure on the Chevaline project in the 1970s and 1980s which
was the last time that the UK attempted to design its own warhead,
Aldermaston and the Treasury have learned that it is much safer
to copy established US designs than to design a new warhead.
1.15 Since 1958 all UK nuclear weapons contain
elements of US design information and therefore those designs
cannot be communicated to third parties without US permission.
Hence it is not possible to consider sharing nuclear weapon information
with France because unlike France, the UK does not possess intellectual
property rights over its nuclear weapon designs, unless it were
to go back to the designs discussed in the 1958 meetings in the
US. Nor is it possible to design a new warhead for a cruise missile,
for example, in place of the Trident missile system without US
agreement.
1.16 The MDA has now been extended many times,
most recently in 2004.
2. POLARIS AND
TRIDENT (1962-90)
2.1 On 21 December 1962 President Kennedy and
Mr Macmillan issued a joint "Statement on Nuclear Defence
Systems" at Nassau. The subsequent Polaris Sales Agreement
is subject to that statement according to Article I of the Agreement.
The statement includes:
`(6) The Prime Minister suggested, and the President
agreed, that for the immediate future a start could be made by
subscribing to NATO some part of its force already in existence.
This could include allocations from United States strategic forces,
from United Kingdom Bomber Command and from tactical nuclear forces
now in Europe. Such forces would be assigned as part of a NATO
nuclear force and targeted in accordance with NATO plans.
(7) Returning to Polaris, the President and the Prime
Minister agreed that the purpose of their two Governments with
respect to the provisions of the Polaris missiles must be the
development of a multilateral NATO nuclear force in the closest
consultation with other NATO allies. They will use their best
endeavours to this end.
(8) Accordingly, the President and the Prime
Minister agreed that the United States will make available on
a continuing basis Polaris missiles (less warheads) for British
submarines. The United States also study the feasibility of making
available certain support facilities for such submarines. The
United Kingdom Government will construct the submarines in which
these weapons will be placed and they will also provide the nuclear
warheads for the Polaris missiles. British forces developed under
this plan will be assigned and targeted in the same way as forces
described in Paragraph 6.
These forces and at least equal United States
forces would be made available for inclusion in a NATO multilateral
nuclear force. The Prime Minister made it clear that, except where
her Majesty's Government may decide that supreme national interests
are at stake, these British forces will be used for the purposes
of international defence of the western alliance in all circumstances.'
2.2 Following Nassau, the Polaris Sales Agreement
was signed on 6 April 1963. Note that in addition to agreeing
to supply the missiles including guiding capsules, the US also
supplies missile launching and handling systems, missile fire
control systems, ship navigation systems and spare parts, together
with full technical documentation. Furthermore the UK is allowed
to use missile range facilities in the US for test launches.
2.3 Note that Article XIV restricts any transfer
of information relating to the missiles to any recipient other
than a "United Kingdom officer, employee, national or firm"
without the consent of the US. So the UK may have legal ownership
of missiles provided under the agreement, but as with nuclear
weapon designs it does not have intellectual property rights.
2.4 The NATO multilateral force never took place.
But on the renewal of the Polaris Sale Agreement every government
has affirmed that the missiles supplied by the US will be assigned
to NATO barring exceptional circumstances when supreme national
interests are at stake. For example when Britain decided to replace
Polaris by the Trident I C4 missile in 1980 Francis Pym, then
Defence Secretary stated to the House of Commons that the missile
"Once bought, it will be entirely within our ownership and
operational control but we shall continue to commit the whole
force to NATO in the same way that the Polaris force is committed
today".
2.5 Similarly when Britain decided to replace
the Trident I C4 missile with the Trident II D5 missile, Mrs Thatcher
wrote to President Reagan that "Like the Polaris force, and
consistent with the agreement reached in 1980 on the supply of
Trident I missiles, the United Kingdom Trident II force will be
assigned to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation; and except
where the United Kingdom Government may decide that supreme national
interests are at stake, this successor force will be used for
the purposes of international defence of the Western alliance
in all circumstances".
2.6 Even during the Cold War, the control arrangements
for the UK's Polaris fleet were not transparent. SACEUR, always
a US General, controlled US nuclear weapons assigned to NATO forces.
SACLANT (an American Admiral) controlled the US fleet in the Atlantic,
presumably including US submarines armed with Polaris or Poseidon
missiles. If the British and an equivalent US Polaris/Poseidon
fleet were assigned to NATO in normal circumstances, either SACEUR
or SACLANT would be expected to have overall control although
the British submarines would report to the Commander at Northwood.
2.7 NATO's Nuclear Planning Group decided the
posture of nuclear forces assigned to NATO. According to NATO
itself "During the Cold War, NATO's nuclear forces played
a central role in the Alliance's strategy of flexible response.
To deter major war in Europe, nuclear weapons were integrated
into the whole of NATO's force structure, and the Alliance maintained
a variety of targeting plans which could be executed at short
notice".
2.8 The nuclear weapons assigned to NATO were
generally for theatre or non-strategic purposes. These were, for
example, the US freefall bombs carried by allied airforces from
the 1960s onwards and the cruise missiles and Pershings of the
1980s. It is therefore not clear how Britain's strategic forces
fit into this scenario. Nor is it clear how US submarines assigned
to NATO differed in their tasks from US submarines directly controlled
within the US force structure.
3. POLARIS AND
TRIDENT (1991-2009)
3.1 Once the Soviet Union disintegrated, the
Warsaw Pact followed taking with it NATO's policy of flexible
response. While Defence Ministers from NATO countries dutifully
met twice a year in the Nuclear Planning Group there was generally
nothing to discuss other than disposal of old weapons. No communiques
were issued updating NATO's new nuclear posture. The Intermediate
Nuclear Forces Treaty of 1987 eliminated nuclear and conventional
ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between
500-5,500 km from Europe and 846 US missiles were destroyed by
1 June 1991.
3.2 NATO has therefore radically reduced its reliance
on nuclear forces. According to the NATO website "their role
is now more fundamentally political, and they are no longer directed
towards a specific threat". The latest document available
on NATO's nuclear posture dates from 2002 and is entitled NATO's
Nuclear Forces in the New Security Environment. It contains
just two references to the UK's Trident fleet, namely:
(i) "Not depicted on the chart [showing
NATO's residual nuclear forces] are the sea-based nuclear systems
belonging to the United States and/or the United Kingdom that
could have been made available to NATO in crisis/conflict and
(ii) "The chart also does not reflect a
small number of UK Trident weapons on nuclear-powered ballistic
missile submarines (SSBN), available for a sub-strategic role.
3.3 So even though Tony Blair wrote to President
Bush on 7 December 2006 repeating the usual pledge that the Trident
force will continue to be assigned to NATO in all circumstances
barring a threat to UK's "supreme national interests",
I conclude that there is no meaningful assignment of the Trident
force to NATO, since NATO no longer has a nuclear posture.
3.4 NATO may not have a nuclear posture but
the United States certainly does have one. Its Single Integrated
Operational Plan or SIOP specifies how American nuclear weapons
would be used in the event of nuclear war. Since both SACEUR and
SACLANT are US officers, it seems to me that the only possible
meaning of "assigned to NATO" or the equivalent phrase
"international arrangements for mutual defence and security"
is that the UK Trident fleet is in practice assigned to the US:
it operates in conjunction with the US fleet under SIOP or the
successor to SIOP.
3.5 According to the Eighth Report of the Commons
Defence Committee for 2005-06 the UK's nuclear forces were part
of SIOP during the Cold War.[140]
It seems to me that this situation persists. That would also explain
why UK submarines do not collide with US submarines, although
they have collided with France's much smaller submarine fleet.
3.6 If that is the case, the NATO link is purely
formal: as far as I understand it the NATO command structure for
Trident is based on the British Commander-in-Chief Fleet, having
two roles just like SACEUR. He is CINCFLEET with operational headquarters
at Northwood, Middlesex, where the UK's forces joint headquarters
are situated. But a NATO Regional Command, Allied Maritime Component
Command Northwood is sited there too. CINCFLEET is dual-hatted
as Commander AMCCN. So by sleight-of-hand the Trident fleet is
a national fleet and a NATO fleet at the same time. CINCFLEET
has operational control of the Trident fleet and a missile cannot
be fired without permission from the Prime Minister.
3.7 But how operationally independent is the
Trident fleet? I discuss this in the next section.
4. AN INDEPENDENT
DETERRENT?
4.1 I have already pointed out that the warhead
used in the Trident fleet is a copy of a US design; that the missiles
are made, tested and serviced in the US; and that the Fire Control
system is provided by the US. Aldermaston is now principally operated
by an American company. Nevertheless in the Eighth Report of the
Defence Committee already referred to Sir Michael Quinlan gave
evidence that "in the last resort, when the chips are down
and we are scared, worried to the extreme, we can press the button
and launch the missiles whether the Americans say so or not".
Does that mean that the UK has operational independence?
4.2 I will argue that this is not the case. This
is not a question of the US disabling the GPS system so that the
UK's missiles cannot function for the Trident missile has an inertial
guidance system, supplied by the US. The crucial point concerns
targetting.
4.3 The US possesses a National Target Base
of potential nuclear strike targets as part of SIOP or the successor
to SIOP [the name keeps changing]. These are drawn up at US Strategic
Command [STRATCOM] headquarters in Omaha where there is a UK liaison
mission. Any British plans can be incorporated if approved into
the US operational plan. There is a Nuclear Operations and Targeting
Centre in London which co-ordinates with STRATCOM. But the targeting
software is provided by STRATCOM and its affiliates in the US.
The software includes data which the UK cannot provide by itself:
photographic information of the target; measurements of the gravitational
and magnetic fields in the vicinity of the target and a catalogue
of star positions for navigation are required and are provided
by the US.
Furthermore day-to-day weather information needs
to be relayed to the Trident fleet from the US Fleet Numerical
Meteorological and Oceanography Center. So although the UK can
suggest targets, it cannot insist on them, nor can it independently
provide targeting software for the missiles, while the US can
always withdraw support or include lines of code in the software
it provides to limit the UK's ability to operate its missiles.
4.4 To take an extreme example which I have
used before, the UK could not target New York because STRATCOM
would not prepare the target software.
4.5 I therefore agree (at least as far as the
words "British" and "independent" are concerned)
with Chris Huhne who wrote that "Voltaire famously stated
that the Holy Roman Empire was neither holy, nor Roman, nor an
Empire. I suspect that Trident as presently constituted is neither
British, nor independent, nor a deterrent".[141]
5. THE POLITICAL
COST OF
THE SPECIAL
RELATIONSHIP
5.1 I am a physical scientist not a political
scientist and so I do not claim to be an expert on politics. Nevertheless
I have studied the US-UK nuclear co-operation agreement for over
25 years and I have visited the US regularly for over 50 years
since enrolling as a PhD student at the California Institute of
Technology in September 1959. It seems to me that while the UK
may well have had good reasons in 1958 for entering into the MDA
with the US, it needs to reassess the situation. It is very surprising
that the MDA has endured for 50 years with only minor amendment
to its terms. In my opinion it is very unlikely that it will survive
the next 50 years. I agree with William Wallace and Christopher
Phillips[142]
that it is necessary for the UK to reassess the special relationship.
5.2 I hope that I have demonstrated that the US-UK
relationship in nuclear matters is unequal. The UK is the perpetual
supplicant and the US is the provider. This cannot be healthy:
it means that the UK government lives in constant fear that the
US may not supply or may restrict the supply of whatever it requires
for nuclear defence.
5.3 In 1959, when I first went to the US, the
British and American people and governments could still remember
their common endeavour in the Second World War. Broadly speaking,
the politics of both countries were strongly aligned. The UK was
still a world power: indeed Mr Khrushchev visited the UK in 1956
paving the way for his visit to the US in 1959, which I remember
well as I had just arrived in the US. Mr Macmillan and President
Eisenhower were old friends. Resuming the nuclear co-operation
of the Second World War made sense. Furthermore 50 years ago co-operation
on nuclear weapons was not totally one-sided as I have shown.
Today nuclear weapons are much better understood but the codes
describing their behaviour were developed in the US, not the UK.
Los Alamos and Livermore Laboratories would scarcely notice if
Aldermaston gave up its work.
5.4 What one can say with certainty about the
next 50 years is that they will be unlike the past 50 years. The
US is no longer a similar country to the UK. In many areas of
the US English is a minority language. The US is, moreover, a
profoundly religious countrythe majority of whose citizens
do not believe in evolution: is it likely that the world view
of the US will remain aligned with that of the secular and rationalist
UK for the next 30 years? Already very different approaches to
global warming, the International Criminal Court, international
law, the death penalty and the treatment of prisoners have become
apparent in the last few years between our two countries. Yet
the extensions of the MDA and the Polaris Sales Agreement assume
that US-UK relations will remain completely aligned over that
time period envisaged, which is at least until 2040.
5.5 In Scotland a majority of the population
is against the possession of nuclear weapons, but the UK's nuclear
fleet is based in Scotland. Is this situation likely to persist
over the next 30 years or could Scotland conceivably follow Ireland
and become an independent state within the European Union? If
Scotland were to secede from the UK it is likely that England
would have to give up possession of nuclear weapons. This would
lead to the termination of the MDA and the Polaris Agreement.
The Special Relationship would come to an end. It would be sensible
for the government to make contingency plans for that possibility.
5.6 The veteran NATO strategist and former naval
officer Michael MccGwire wrote recently "In sum, the benefits
to Britain of its nuclear weapons are at best meagre and mainly
hypothetical. What then of the costs? The financial burden is
not really significant (about 5% of the defence vote). However,
the need for technological support is largely responsible for
the country's political dependence on America".[143]
In my opinion that has been demonstrated in spades over the past
few years.
5.7 Britain's dependence and subservience to
the US have resulted from its clinging to these nuclear agreements
and the similar arrangements in intelligence gathering which also
stem from Second World War co-operation. Examples of such subservience
in recent years are the non-reciprocal extradition agreement with
the US; the UK government decision to occupy Iraq together with
the US, and the current desire to increase force levels in Afghanistan.
This should be contrasted with Canada which in spite of sharing
many common security arrangements with the US has a strictly reciprocal
extradition agreement with the US. Furthermore Canada did not
join in the occupation of Iraq and it has decided to withdraw
its troops from Afghanistan by 2011.
5.8 Given that major spending commitments to
Trident renewal have not yet been made, it seems to me to be essential
to reassess the nuclear special relationship in order to allow
the UK to begin to free itself from its current political dependence
on the US. In Michael MccGwire's words the UK needs to remove
its American "comfort blanket" that senior British politicians
assume is needed to survive in the outside world.
2 November 2009
138 See para 2.7 below. Back
139
J Simpson, The Independent Nuclear State, Macmillan, London,
1983. Back
140
Eighth Report of the Defence Committee, Session 2005-06, paragraph
44. Back
141
Chris Huhne, "There are better things to do than replace
Trident", The Independent, 5 November 2007. Back
142
William Wallace and Christopher Phillips, "Reassessing the
Special Relationship", International Affairs, 85 263
(2009). Back
143
Michael MccGwire, "Comfort Blanket or Weapon of War",
International Affairs, 82 639 (2006). Back
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