GS(Afg) 28: FCO written update: Afghanistan and Pakistan

 

London Conference update

1. Afghanistan: The London Conference took place on 28 January 2010, and covered three key areas: security, governance and economic development, and regional co-operation and international architecture. The more than 70 countries and international organisations present agreed a final Communiqué document which included the following commitments:

· To develop a plan for phased transition to Afghan security lead province by province to begin, provided conditions are met, by late 2010/early 2011;

· Targets for significant increases in the Afghan Army and Police Force supported by the international community: 171,000 Afghan Army and 134,000 Afghan Police by the end of 2011;

· Measures to tackle corruption, including the establishment of an independent Office of High Oversight and an ad hoc independent Monitoring and Evaluation Mission;

· Better co-ordinated development assistance to be increasingly channelled through the Afghan government, supported by reforms to structures and budgets;

· A civilian surge to match the military surge, including new civilian leadership of the international community's programmes, with the appointment of Mark Sedwill, previously British Ambassador to Afghanistan, as NATO's Senior Civilian Representative, a new UN Special Representative of the Secretary General (Staffan di Mistura) to take over from Kai Eide in March;

· Enhanced sub-national government to improve delivery of basic services to all Afghans;

· Support for the Afghan government's national Peace and Reintegration Programme, including financial support for a Peace and Reintegration Trust Fund, to offer economic alternatives to those who renounce violence, cut links to terrorism and agree to work within the democratic process;

· Work to ensure the integrity of the 2010 parliamentary elections and to prevent any irregularities and misconduct. The Afghan government will also work closely with the UN to build on the lessons learned from the 2009 elections to deliver improvements to the electoral process in 2010 and beyond;

· Support for increased regional cooperation including looking forward to Afghanistan and its regional partners developing and further coordinating regional initiatives.

2. The aim of the conference was to align the military and civilian resources of every coalition partner behind a clear political strategy, to help President Karzai and his Government deliver the ambitious agenda that he set out in his inaugural speech last November. The themes of mutual responsibility, Afghan and international, and of unity behind a clear plan came through very strongly.

3. There was clear consensus on the outcomes across the international community, and key now is delivery. Work is ongoing in Kabul to transform these commitments into tangible results. The next step to assess delivery against these commitments will be at the proposed Kabul Conference later in the spring.

Security update (Ministry of Defence lead)

4. There is no doubt that the security situation remains difficult, particularly in southern Afghanistan. The UK, as part of ISAF, continues to work with the Afghan National Security Forces to improve security for the Afghan people. ISAF has prioritised southern Afghanistan, as has been made clear through Operation Moshtarak, undertaken in partnership between ISAF and Afghan forces, and NATO's largest military mission since 2001.

5. 2009 was a year of decision-making, both within Afghanistan and the wider international community, as we decided on the resources requested by the Commander of ISAF. Since December 2009, nearly 40,000 new troops have been pledged to ISAF. Of these, the US are providing 30,000 and the remainder come from 15 countries. The majority of the US troops will be deployed in southern Afghanistan. Of the non-US forces the UK and Romania are significantly increasing our presence in RC(S) with 500 and 600 troops respectively and Georgia intend to deploy around 700 troops with the US in RC(S) in 2010. The full laydown of additional troops has not yet been finalised, but we expect contributing countries to deepen their presence around their existing deployments throughout Afghanistan.

6. The Government of Afghanistan has prioritised sending new troops to the areas in which the insurgency is most active, in particular Helmand province. They are currently in the process of deploying these additional troops as they complete their training, and we expect their deployment to be completed within the first half of 2010.

7. At the London Conference the international community endorsed ISAF developing a plan for phased transition to Afghan security lead province by province to begin, provided conditions are met, by late 2010/early 2011. We are working in partnership with the Afghan National Security Forces to ensure that they have the capability to take the lead in providing security and meet these conditions.

8. With the growing capability of the Afghan National Security Forces we should see an increase in the leadership of the Afghans in security throughout the country. In Helmand, successful military operations by ISAF and Afghan Security Forces have allowed more of the Province to come under the control of the Afghan Government. Operation Panther's Claw brought security to 80,000 people and allowed reconstruction and development teams to begin work in the Babaji area. The area in which Operation Panther's Claw was conducted is already showing the signs of success. Check Points and Patrol Bases have been created helping the Afghan Government, through the Afghan National Security Forces with ISAF support, establish their permanent presence in the area and work against the return of insurgents. Shuras are now being held throughout the area, demonstrating the ability of local elders and leaders to hold and attend local governance meetings in public. Civil effect is taking place in the Babaji area including a school refurbishment project, the development of health centres and alternative livelihoods programme, for example wheat seeds to replace opium.

Operation Moshtarak

9. Building from Operation Panther's Claw, one of the main focuses for ISAF has been the need to bring security to the full Central Helmand Valley. That is the aim of Op Moshtarak. It is an international mission involving ANSF and ISAF (US, UK, Danish and Estonian) forces working in partnership. The Afghan Government and Armed Forces have been fully involved in planning this operation and the Afghan National Security Forces are playing a leading role in its conduct. Operation Moshtarak will extend the authority of the Afghan Government in central Helmand, removing the largest remaining safe havens in the area for the Taliban, insurgents and narco-criminals. It will improve freedom of movement along key transport arteries, critical to the local economy. Immediate stabilisation activities will follow on as soon as possible after the clear phase of the operations. This 'hot stabilisation' will roll directly into longer-term stabilisation and development activity.

Reintegration and Reconciliation update

10. At the London Conference, President Karzai pledged to establish a National Council for Peace, Reconciliation and Reintegration. This received widespread support from the international community in attendance. He set out the next step in this process - the convening of a Peace Jirga by the Afghan Government. This will be a further opportunity for the Afghan Government to secure the support of key constituencies in the Afghan population, including tribal leaders from across the country.

11. The international community also announced its intention to support Afghan-led reintegration efforts by establishing a Peace and Reintegration Trust Fund at the conference. So far, over £100m has been pledged to the Fund, including substantial contributions from Japan, Germany, Australia, Spain, Greece, and £5m from the UK. Several other countries have also committed to provide funding, without specifying a sum. We hope that the Afghan-led reintegration programme can be launched at the Kabul conference later in the spring, and we are continuing to work with our partners to ensure the fund is fully resourced.

12. The reintegration programme will be led by the Afghan Government. The UK, alongside international partners, is working closely with the Afghan Government to help them define how the programme will operate. Ensuring co-ordination at the national level, effective delivery of the programme to districts and communities, developing monitoring and oversight mechanisms, and preventing corruption are all the subject of this work.

Governance update

Elections

13. Presidential and Provincial Council elections took place in Afghanistan on 20 August 2009. In contrast to the 2004/5 elections, the organisation of the elections was Afghan-led, primarily through the Independent Elections Commission (IEC). The election was held under difficult circumstances and was by no means perfect, but it was credible - allowing the political will of the Afghan people to be clearly expressed and a President to be chosen. After fraudulent votes were investigated and removed by the Afghan Independent Election Commission (IEC) and Election Complaints Commission, the final IEC figures showed that 65,489 people had voted in Helmand. For the whole of Afghanistan 4,597,727 votes were cast. Millions of Afghans across the country also voted in the Provincial Council elections, held the same day.

14. After fraudulent ballots had been removed the results showed President Karzai in first place with 2,283,907 votes (a 49.67% share), Dr. Abdullah Abdullah in second with 1,406,242 votes (30.59%) and Ramazan Bashardost in third with 481,072 votes (10.46%). The Afghan Constitution states that if no candidate receives over 50% of the votes, a second round run-off election should be held, where the top two candidates go head to head. But before the second round could go ahead, Dr. Abdullah pulled out of the race, leaving President Karzai as the only candidate. The IEC therefore declared President Karzai the winner.

15. In Helmand, Engineer Hadi, the Provincial IEC officer, was responsible for planning and implementation. All 107 polling centres in Helmand opened and remained open all day. ANSF, supported by ISAF, led the largely effective election security operation. Several indirect fire attacks during the morning likely had some impact on turnout, but the insurgency failed to significantly disrupt the election. The expansion of Afghan government control to formerly Taliban-held areas west and south of Lashkar Gah (including Babaji, Nawa and Now Zad) in the months running up to the election enabled the location of polling centres across 11 of the 13 Districts in the Province. Many Helmandis defied intimidation to vote. However, the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) identified some instances of electoral fraud and manipulation across Helmand.

16. The newly elected Helmand Provincial Council met for the first time in January. Four of the fifteen members are female (including the Secretary of the Council). The Helmand Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) meets regularly with the Council, and will work with the four new Council sub-committees covering finance, development, security and education.

17. The Afghan Independent Electoral Commission postponed the parliamentary elections under Article 55 of Afghan electoral law. They cited a lack of funding, as well as security concerns and logistical difficulties, as the reason for the delay. The extended timetable should allow the Afghan Government the time to consider and implement the necessary reforms to build on the lessons of the 2009 elections to meet our shared aim of a more robust electoral process going forward. At the London Conference the Afghan Government committed to ensuring the integrity of the 2010 parliamentary elections, rescheduled to be held in September, and to delivering improvements to the electoral process. We, along with other international partners and the UN, will look to provide support for credible, fair and robust elections in 2010.

Building sub-national governance

18. Increasing the visibility of Central and Provincial Government in Districts has been critical to the international community's politically driven approach to counter-insurgency, helping to strengthen the population's belief that local, provincial and national government structures are more capable and responsive than any alternative offered by the insurgency. The Helmand PRT has helped support two key initiatives in this area: the Afghan-led Afghan Social Outreach Programme (ASOP), and the District Delivery Programme (DDP)

19. ASOP aims to better connect the Afghan Government to its people through the establishment of district level Community Councils. These Councils are elected from representative local caucuses of community elders by secret ballot. In Helmand the programme has been led by Provincial Governor Mangal, and managed by local Independent Directorate of Local Governance (IDLG) staff, with training, mentoring, and funding from the Provincial Reconstruction Team.

20. ASOP was inaugurated in Helmand in January 2009 when the first Community Council was established in Nad Ali in the wake of Operation Sond Chara. Councils were subsequently set up in Garmsir (March), Gereshk (May) and most recently in Nawa (October). The rollout of the programme has been conditions-based: a supportive and effective District Governor is a pre-requisite.

21. The Community Council acts as a bridge between the local community and the Afghan Provincial Government, representing community positions to the provincial government and conveying information from the government to local communities. Each Council has three sub-committees: Security, Justice and Economic and Social Development, working to an overall Community Plan for their district. Other Community Council achievements to date include resolving local disputes over commercial property, land and irrigation issues; facilitating compensation claims for local people and supporting wheat seed distribution. Community Councils have proven to be effective precursors to a future nation-wide system of elected District Councils which is set out in the Constitution. The success of the Helmand pilot is reflected in the fact that nine other provinces including Kandahar are now planning to roll out ASOP Community Councils.

22. The District Delivery Programme is a new Afghan government-directed initiative to enable the delivery of responsive and effective basic services in 80 critical Districts across Afghanistan. The Helmand PRT is supporting Afghan Government in launching the first ever DDP in Nad Ali District over the coming weeks, following up on the clear phase of Operation Moshtarak. DDP has a strong emphasis on community participation, supporting the District Government in producing a fully-budgeted District Plan in cooperation with Provincial and Central government. The DDP also aims to ensure line Ministry representation in Districts. If successful, this DDP should act as a model for rollout more widely in Helmand and Afghanistan.

23. London Conference outcomes on governance focussed on improving sub-national governance through capacity building national civilian institutions, approval of the IDLG's policy on sub-national governance and preparation of implementing legislation in advance of the Kabul Conference.

The Justice system

24. Working closely in support of Afghan government partners, the PRT has helped deliver progress in the formal and informal justice sectors over the past six months. We estimate that over 90 percent of justice in Afghanistan is delivered through the informal system and it is vital for the international community to engage actively here, especially in developing linkages with the formal system. District Prosecutors are now present in four District Centres, bringing the formal justice sector to these communities. The PRT is also working with the Afghan authorities to ensure that insurgency-related cases are dealt with fairly and promptly through a strengthened Afghan legal system.

25. On the informal justice side, four Justice Sub-Committees (JSCs) have been established under the ASOP Community Councils. JSCs have established themselves as 'go-to' fora for low-level justice in their respective communities, and are effectively linked in to the District and Provincial justice architecture. The PRT has supported basic human and land rights training of members of the JSCs. And the presence of women on the Gereshk JSC has enabled ordinary women to approach the committee with their disputes - mainly on divorce or forced marriage.

26. Prisoner Review Shuras have proven a valuable tool in reducing both arbitrary detention and unlawful release. They represent an intersection between the formal and informal justice sectors in that they use a traditional forum (the shura) while involving the statutory agencies (Afghan National Army, Afghan National Police, National Directorate of Security), as well as community representatives where elected.

27. The PRT has supported the International Legal Foundation - Afghanistan (ILF-A); an international organisation providing free legal defence to citizens with legal disputes. ILF-A employs the only two defence lawyers in Helmand province. Separately, the PRT, working through Action Aid in partnership with the United Nations Development Fund for Women, organised paralegal training for the Independent Commission for Women and Children's Rights, Helmand's only independent women's organisation. This aimed to create a primary, community-based, legal information and referral service to families in the Lashkar Gah area, with planned outreach to outlying districts including Nad Ali.

28. Maintaining progress on justice provision remains essential to effective counter-insurgency in Helmand. The PRT continues to support Provincial Government in building on and institutionalising organic Afghan structures, while strengthening the links to and capacity of the formal system.

Counter-Narcotics

29. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) confirmed a 22% fall in opium poppy cultivation in 2009 (down to 123,000ha) - including a 33% fall in Helmand - following the 19% decrease in 2008. The Number of poppy free provinces rose to 20.

30. The UNODC's Winter Rapid Assessment suggests that levels of opium cultivation will be stable this year. Our own research corroborates this. Despite a dramatic fall in the price of licit crops (primarily wheat), early indications are that farmers are choosing not to return to opium poppy cultivation. The UNODC has assessed that farmers are responding to improvements in governance and security (with significantly less poppy cultivation in areas where the Government of Afghanistan is in control).

31. Helmand's PRT-supported Governor-led Food Zone Programme, the only Provincial counter-narcotics strategy in Afghanistan, helped deliver a 33% reduction in poppy cultivation in 2009 - an achievement for which Governor Mangal received an award of $10 million under the national Good Performers Initiative in November 2009. The Food Zone programme has allowed the Provincial Government to demonstrate its ability to deliver real benefits to the Helmandi population. In its second year, the programme has already delivered wheat seed and fertiliser to almost 40,000 farmers, and fruit saplings and grapevines to 1,200 farmers, across several districts. Around 27,000 farmers will also shortly receive summer vegetable seeds and forage crops. Governor Mangal has personally led Counter-Narcotics shuras, as part of a wider public information effort. Governor-led eradication of poppy grown in Food Zone areas began on 15 February.

18 February 2010