House of Commons - Police Service Strength

Police Service Strength - Home Affairs Committee Contents

2 Trends in service strength

Trends over the past five years

5. The most recent Home Office figures show that as of 31 March 2009 the police service employed:

147,085 (full-time equivalent) police officers, including 2,811 employed by the British Transport Police (BTP) and 504 seconded to central services;
80,542 police support staff, including 1,246 employed by the BTP;
16,831 Police Community Support Officers (PCSOs), including 324 employed by the BTP;
469 traffic wardens;
3,083 designated officers; and
14,469 special constables, including 218 employed by the BTP.[6]

6. The Association of Chief Police Officers (ACPO) provided us with a table showing how figures for the two largest categories have fluctuated over the past five years, broken down by force.[7] The table shows that over the five-year period:

Despite a tiny fall in officer levels of -0.15% in 2007-08, overall there was a 4.8% increase in police officers and a 15.49% increase in police staff across the service;
13 forces out of 43 reported an overall decrease in officer numbers between 2004 and 2009, ranging between -0.9% to -7.04%;
Three forces reported a rise of over 10% in officer numbers;
Three forces reported an overall decrease in staff numbers; and
Ten forces reported an increase in staff numbers of over 25%.

In the most recent financial year, officer numbers rose by 2.89% across the service and staff numbers by 3.04%.

7. This appeared to indicate that concerns about reduced officer strength were largely unjustified. The Home Office has emphasised that officer numbers are at a "record high".[8] ACPO also acknowledged that:

It is clear that there are no notable changes to police force strengths (officers or staff) during the current financial year.[9]

Factors influencing these trends

8. We put these findings to our first two witnesses, selected to represent a large urban force and a small force covering a mix of urban and rural areas, and asked them to discuss them in the context of their own experiences. The Metropolitan Police employs 33,318 officers and 14,226 staff. Officer numbers rose by 9.4% and staff numbers by 12.1% over the five-year period. Deputy Commissioner Tim Godwin agreed that "our numbers appear quite stable".[10] He explained that one of the advantages possessed by the Metropolitan Police as a larger force is its ability to "package initiatives together", moving officers from business areas where efficiency savings can be made to areas where Government (or Mayoral) initiatives have funded more officer places.[11]

9. Bedfordshire employs 1,274 officers and 957 staff. Officer numbers fell annually by between 1.1% and 2.7% between 2004 and 2008, before rising by 6.1% in 2008/09 (constituting an overall rise of 5.4% over the five-year period). Staff levels rose by 14% during the same period. Chief Constable Parker explained that Bedfordshire's initial losses were caused in part because the force lost more officers than anticipated through resignations or transfers to other forces but that to an extent the force used this natural wastage as a means of balancing the books. The force was able subsequently to increase its establishment "primarily due to an increase in the council tax at that particular time".[12] In her view:

The figures hide a multitude of sins … They are very complex, because they are not just made up from police officers and police staff who are funded from local budgets, they are of course supported by grant-funded officers … On the face of it, the numbers in my own force look fairly constant, but were those grants to be removed then clearly there could be a substantial drop in the numbers.[13]

10. Written evidence from ACPO attributed much of the officer growth across the service to such grants, particularly in the field of counter-terrorism.[14] The Metropolitan Police has recruited over 1,000 officers in relation to the counter-terrorism response and 1,900 officers through neighbourhood policing grants since 2004.[15] In Bedfordshire the number of grant-funded officers increased by 23% in the same period, from 136 to 167.[16] A second key reason for officer growth, cited specifically by 14 forces in their submissions, is the allocation of extra resources by chief officers to close the identified gap in protective services.

11. In the majority of the 13 forces who have reduced their officer establishments overall, these losses were explained by workforce modernisation initiatives which have identified a number of roles, particularly in back-office functions and custody, which could be filled by staff rather than warranted officers. All bar four of these forces have increased staff levels by over 10%. Warwickshire Police and Police Authority explained that "posts can be filled in many cases by … support staff at a lesser cost".[17] Where an increase in staff is greater than the reduction in officer numbers, this would appear to be beneficial as it can enable forces to make more police officers available for operational duties.[18] According to the Minister:

That [increase in staff numbers] is because in part the chief constables themselves have started to move some of the policing roles that were undertaken by police officers to civilian support staff to ensure that we maintain a presence on the frontline for officers doing what I think the Committee would want police officers to do, which is to give reassurance, patrol the streets, detect crime and tackle some of the issues of frontline crime rather than some of the issues of backroom bureaucracy.[19]

12. There were only two forces in which staff increases did not outnumber officer reductions: City of London and North Wales. The submission from the City of London Police and Police Authority drew attention to the "extremely unfavourable position" in which the force has found itself because it has received less than the minimum increase of 2.5% promised to forces by the former Home Secretary in the three-year funding settlement she announced in December 2007.[20] North Wales explained their losses were the result of "funding shortfalls": their officer reductions were minor compared to that of some others, at less than 1%.[21]

13. Figures provided to us by forces in England and Wales show overall rises in both the number of police officers and the number of police staff employed across the service over the past five years. Overall rises of 4.8% and 15.5% respectively appear to indicate that reports of reduced service strength are unjustified. However, figures varied significantly between forces, with 13 reporting a reduction in officer levels over the same period. In the majority of these forces, reductions were linked to workforce modernisation initiatives and were therefore accompanied by large increases in staff levels. Only a small minority admitted that they were obliged to make cuts because of funding shortfalls, blamed in part on the current distribution of the police national grant. Witnesses also warned that the rise in officer numbers was largely the product of an increase in specific grant-funded posts, particularly in the area of counter-terrorism, which obscure the trends and could be withdrawn at any point.

Future projections

14. Our evidence highlighted greater uncertainty about future funding settlements and its impact on the workforce. Police funding is mainly derived from a combination of locally levied precepts and central grants from the Home Office. Forces can also raise money through partnership and sponsorship funding, charging for goods and services, interest from investment of reserves, sale of assets and reinvestment of efficiency savings.[22] Government spending on policing for 2008/09-2010/11 was detailed in the Comprehensive Spending Review (CSR) announcement in December 2007.[23] The grant for next year is expected to be along the lines indicated in the CSR, a 2.7% increase across the service.

15. Few indications have been given about future years. In his pre-budget report the Chancellor of the Exchequer estimated that current spending will fall by 0.8% across the board between 2011/2 and 2014/5 but guaranteed:

Sufficient funding to maintain the number of police and community support officers. That means that I can confirm not just that we will increase spending as planned next year on hospitals, schools and policing, but we can pledge that spending on these crucial front-line services will continue to rise over and above inflation.[24]

16. Clearly specific settlements will depend on political decisions taken after the general election, but police witnesses anticipated that their funding will be squeezed regardless of the result, because of the state of the economy.[25] According to the Association of Chief Police Officers:

Without exception, all forces are concerned as to the future outlook and the funding position into the next year and beyond. The recession is a clear driver in this, coupled with messages from Government on driving down public sector spending to reduce the national debt, and revenue costs.[26]

The organisation also pointed to measures that forces are already taking in anticipation of future funding cuts, such as freezing recruitment and holding vacancies, which will become visible in workforce figures for 2009/10.[27] Evidence from our two individual forces corroborated this analysis. Chief Constable Parker advised that she is considering reducing her establishment by about 30 officers next year based on the information she currently possesses, and that future years look "bleaker".[28] According to Deputy Commissioner Godwin, the Metropolitan workforce seems "fairly secure" for 2010/11 but future years will be "a challenge".[29]

17. The police service also warned that there was an extent to which they could manage with less funding; but significant cuts would eventually lead to a reduction in the level of policing they could provide. Generally, forces have given a commitment to "protect the 'frontline'" from cuts that will undoubtedly need to be made.[30] But the Association of Police Authorities stated:

We must be clear. The ability of police forces to maintain existing levels of service with smaller budgets has limits. At some point, service must diminish.[31]

Gwent Police Authority, for example, told us that "further unexpected cuts" in government spending plans would "inevitably" result in reductions in frontline policing numbers, and neighbourhood policing in particular.[32] The Association of Police Authorities estimated that forces may be able to manage a 5% cut in spending without making savings from uniformed staff budgets; a 10% cut in total spending on the other hand would be likely to result in cuts of £260 million from these budgets, constituting 5,800 officers.[33]

18. Chief Constable Parker indicated that the recent history of her force demonstrated the causal relationship between officer reductions and force underperformance: "it is the people who deliver the service, so there has to be a direct correlation between the numbers of staff … and the service you are able to deliver".[34]

19. Moreover, innovative means of delivering long-term savings—such as collaboration and private sector partnerships that we explore in the next chapter—often require initial investment. The Association of Police Authorities argued that:

Change needs time and needs investment. To reduce funding now will seriously impact the ability of the police service to implement new business models to produce a second wave of productivity and service delivery enhancements.[35]

20. The Minister of State responsible for crime and policing was more optimistic about the impact of financial pressures on policing, telling us that "I do not recognise in the next 12 months the arguments for a 20% cut in funding".[36] He did acknowledge that the Comprehensive Spending Review for 2011-14 would be "more challenging than the CSR of previous years" but added:

There is a range of deployment issues and overtime and management issues that can still maintain the numbers even if we have not sufficient growth as we have had in the past in funding.[37]

21. Previous witnesses had told us that police forces and authorities had struggled to plan ahead effectively because Government decisions about funding are taken so late.[38] The Association of Chief Police Officers highlighted the benefits of Comprehensive Spending Reviews for police forces and authorities:

For a number of years police forces have benefited from a three-year Comprehensive Spending Review settlement. This is very welcomed by forces as it provides financial planning stability. However, the CSR for the next period has been postponed pending the general election, and its future is uncertain. A return to annual settlements would increase uncertainty and be detrimental to the progress seen in recent times. ACPO fully endorse maintaining the three-year CSR settlements.[39]

22. On the basis of provisional financial information from the Government, some forces are planning to cut officer numbers in the next financial year, others are not, depending on their overall financial position. The position after 2011 is unclear as the Government has given no indication of funding settlements beyond that point; however, all forces believe they will be expected to make significant spending cuts.

23. There is a general commitment to protect frontline services across the police service, but there is a limit to the extent to which this will be possible. We see no reason to dispute the Association of Police Authorities' assertion that forces may be able to manage up to a 5% spending cut without affecting uniformed officer budgets, but would struggle to protect these budgets beyond this. Moreover, significant longer-term efficiencies require an element of up-front investment; it may therefore be counter-productive to impose spending cuts at this stage.

24. The police service has greatly appreciated the advent of three-year Comprehensive Spending Reviews, which have increased their ability to plan over the medium term. We endorse this approach to financial planning and recommend that a further Review is carried out as soon as possible.

6 Home Office Statistical Bulletin, Police Service Strength, July 2009, p 1 Back

7 Ev 69-70 [ACPO, Appendix B]. Contains data from all 43 territorially-based forces in England and Wales. Back

8 Home Office Statistical Bulletin, Police Service Strength, July 2009, p 1 Back

9 Ev 56 Back

10 Q 6 Back

11 Q 7 Back

12 Q 17 Back

13 Q 2 Back

14 Ev 58 Back

15 Q 7 Back

16 Q 1 Back

17 Ev 47 Back