Memorandum submitted by Association of
Police Authorities (APA)
PREAMBLE
This document should be read in conjunction
with a submission by the Association of Chief Police Officers
(ACPO) to the Home Affairs Select Committee on behalf of all police
forces throughout England and Wales.
The Committee's original call for submissions
suggested that individual police authorities might provide a joint
response with their forces. However, both ACPO and the Association
of Police Authorities (APA) have elected to provide separate,
though complementary corporate responses to ensure full and accurate
representation of their respective views on the issue of police
service strength.
This document does not include specific data
about officer and civilian headcounts, nor financial impact and
mitigation strategies of individual forces. Rather, when read
together with ACPO's position paper, it contextualises the wider
funding environment, notably the anticipated financial pressure
upon police authorities. Police authorities were consulted by
their forces about metrics supplied with ACPO's submission and
are accordingly endorsed by the APA.
A Strategy for the Service
The APA and police authorities acknowledge the
deteriorating state of public finances and the difficult choices
ahead for government spending. Prioritisation always has, and
always will be a fact of life for government expenditure and the
forthcoming period is no exception. What's changed is the size
of the challenge.
The police service is steadfastly focused on
continuous improvement to increase value for money and deliver
an ever superior service to the public. An enormous volume of
activity is underway across the service to squeeze ever greater
savings from budgets and increase productivity. Many significant
gains have already been made. But we can, and must go further.
Similar to every area of public expenditure,
police funding should not be immune from scrutiny under the circumstances.
But we argue that change takes time and needs investment. To reduce
funding now will seriously impact the ability of the police service
to implement new business models to produce a second wave of productivity
and service delivery enhancements. Current business improvement
initiatives are typically frame-breaking and mostly untested.
Examples include new service delivery models that mix police officers
and unwarranted police staff, experimental forms of collaboration
between forces and third party providers, better integrated and
streamlined systems and processes across the criminal justice
system, innovative use of IT and outsourcing.
Policing is complex. Arbitrary delineation between
"back office" and "frontline" activity, for
example, seriously undermines and misjudges this complexity. "Bobbies
on the beat" (if this in fact defines "frontline")
are merely the tip of a sophisticated system of skills, information
systems, relationships and networks required to deliver policing
services. A cut to any part of the system has flow-on consequences
for the productivity and effectiveness of other parts. In the
event, many efficiencies have already been exploited within existing
business models across the police service. A shift to new models
will require additional resources and time for transition.
There is no easy solution to the funding dilemma.
However, we must be clear. The ability of police forces to maintain
existing levels of service with smaller budgets has limits. At
some point, service must diminish. In particular, calls to maintain
"frontline" policing, regardless of funding available
jeopardises further productivity improvements, risks backsliding
on previous gains and is likely to hollow out the capacity and
capability of forces as budgets are skewed to accommodate a simple,
narrow conception of policing activity—visible, reactive
patrolling.
Of course every government department will argue
their case for priority funding. However, the provision of effective,
adequately resourced policing is one of government's primary responsibilities
in a developed, civil society. We urge the government to consider
the vital role of policing as an enabler of economic recovery,
by contributing to public safety and security within the commercial
sector.
The remainder of this document provides further
context in support of the APA's argument that police funding should
be maintained at least at present levels from 2011 and outyears.
Commencing with an executive summary of strategic
options and considerations for the service to improve productivity
and increase value for money, the report goes on to give an account
of change initiatives to date, the challenges faced by forces
and argue for maintenance of current funding levels.
Strategic options and considerations
Government and the police service
— Initiate a fundamental debate on the
future role of the service, and how it contributes to national
priorities.
— Implement a broad-sweeping, ambitious
programme to reduce bureaucracy and aversion to risk, including
a review of roles and accountability of partners.
— Modernise pay and reward structures to
professionalise the police service and increase productivity.
Police authorities and forces
— Move the productivity agenda onto a new
level, addressing directly the issues raised in the Green Paper
and Jan Berry's review, and progressing QUEST and Workforce Modernisation
improvements.
— Police authorities assume a more prominent
role in local efficiency planning targets.
— Police authorities and forces should
promote wider collaborative and joint working between forces,
authorities, and beyond the police service where this improves
services and/or reduces costs without undermining local provision
or accountability.
— Encourage more innovative solutions to
delivery services locally; building and strengthening the right
culture throughout the service.
— Establish the necessary structures to
enable modernisation. These include:
— Management structures and resource management
capacity.
— ICT and data collection systems.
— Development of new skills in change management
and organisational improvement.
— Development of new techniques in resource
allocation and benefits assessment.
Government
— Articulate a strategic vision for the
police service, including priority deliverables and expectations.
— Take a realistic approach to new responsibilities;
recognition through New Burdens funding when this is unavoidable.
— Demonstrate realistic expectations about
further efficiency savings and risks to service levels.
— Maintain non-block grant funding streams.
— Commit financial, advisory and technical
support for the service to innovate and reduce bureaucracy.
— Recognise the importance of local prioritisation
when resource levels are being reduced. This includes a realistic
debate around local council tax levels. The proportion of police
spending raised locally has doubled over the last 10 years, and
now stands at over 25%. Local consultation exercises confirm that
in many areas, the public would be prepared to pay a little more
each year if it means that their local policing services would
be protected or improved. Arbitrary capping or even the threat
of it takes away that freedom.
— Review central roles and regulations
to allow as much flexibility as possible for the service to allocate
resources where they are most needed.
— Facilitate closer working with other
parts of the public sector (including the Criminal Justice System)
on ways that will provide mutual benefit.
BACKGROUND
1. The theme for the last CSR Submission
was "Sustainable Policing". It was prepared at a time
when the service foresaw growing demands but a financial outlook
that was likely to tighten. Compared to what faces the service
now, the situation in 2006 was optimistic.
2. The priorities in 2006 were to preserve
the fabric and the infrastructure of the service, and consolidate
the positive progress which had been made in establishing neighbourhood
policing and filling the protective services gap.
3. Even then, it would be a challenge. Funding
levels for both grants and Council Tax would be constrained, and
future pay levels could add to the pressure. The role of the efficiency
strategy in releasing cash savings which could be at least partially
recycled assumed even more significance.
4. There was also the matter of "expectations",
set by Ministers, the media, the public, and the service itself.
In an environment of reducing real resources, expectations can
accentuate the pressures.
5. Financial prospects for the next CSR
period are a step into the unknown. The scale of the required
adjustment to public spending has still not been confirmed, but
it could rewrite the resource assumptions for the next 10 years.
Services such as police may face real terms reductions of 10%
or more over the three years from 2011-12. Public services have
had no experience of such a change in modern times.
6. This is the financial backdrop facing
all public services. Those which will secure a degree of protection
from the worst of the impact will be those which contribute significantly
to the Government's wider economic and social objectives; those
which have already grasped the need for modernisation; and those
which are operating effectively with a wide range of partners
in both the public and private sectors. The police service meets
all three of those criteria. If so, the next CSR is a time for
consolidation and taking steps not to lose the positive momentum
built up in the relatively prosperous years of the early 21st
century.
7. Policing is not only a victim of the
global economic crisis, but a catalyst to recovery.
8. The service must look to its inherent
strengths:
— Successful policing helps shape social
attitudes and values.
— Many national strategies depend upon
effective policing.
— There are obvious policy linkages between
Policing, Education, Social strategies, Health and Transport.
— Effective policing is a critical enabler
of social security and economic development. Commerce, local regeneration
and public standards depend on police enforcement of property
rights and personal protection.
9. Ineffective policing risks lowering the
prospects of a quick economic recovery and ongoing economic stability.
10. Policing fully pervades the fabric of
society and is accordingly a complex business operating on at
least four broad levels—international/national/regional
and local. It is also driven by many external factors, including
demographic trends, advances in technology, and political events.
11. Disregarding the policing "multiplier
effect" may have dangerous consequences for security of delivery
of many other public services. ie every £ decrease in police
funding may produce a corresponding increase in costs to other
services, broadly diminishing the capacity and effectiveness of
the public service.
12. For the next 10 years the central focus
for policing will be on capacity. The service has been very successful
in improving efficiency and cost effectiveness since 1999, but
the first signs of a levelling off are beginning to appear. This
is at a time when Home Office is demanding that police authorities
set ever more ambitious targets for efficiency savings. Consequently,
the productivity and performance of policing services will come
to the fore over the next CSR period. Up to now, the debate—and
the targets—have been built around concepts such as cash
or non cashable savings, with very tight definitions of what constitutes
savings or gains.
13. While it is true that the capacity for
continuing efficiencies in the traditional sense may be levelling
off, this does not mean that the capacity to improve is also declining.
14. Improvements will flow from several
sources. There will be cash reductions in some budgets, but these
will be complemented by productivity improvements (doing more
for the same) and service improvements (doing the same, or more,
but better).
15. If the economic prospects are at the
lower end of the scale, there may be a need to look again at the
mix of policing services and the levels to which they are delivered.
The demand for policing services from the public and government
is almost infinite, and the constant flow of new legislation will
add to the demands. Resources will almost certainly grow at a
slower rate than demands over the next couple of CSR periods.
Affordability will be paramount, and within the financial limits
it will be about achieving the optimum mix.
16. It will also be essential to manage
expectations, to ensure that the public and other stakeholders
appreciate the scale of the challenge facing the service, and
the practical limits on what can be achieved. By informing and
listening to communities, it will help shape a more effective
response to the reduction in resources.
THE FINANCIAL
AND SOCIO
ECONOMIC BACKGROUND
17. Current spending on Policing in England
and Wales is £11.2 billion. In per capita terms, that is
equivalent to £208 per year. Because of the high proportion
of funding which comes from government grants, the actual local
perceived cost is much lower. Band D Council Tax levels range
from £81 to £199, averaging around £3 per week.
The gearing effect of central/local funding has a downside in
the sense that small marginal changes in local spending can seem
disproportionately expensive in cash terms.
18. Police authorities have acted responsibly
in setting their 2009-10 budgets. The realities of the financial
situation facing the country are obvious, and Authorities have
not risked alarming the public unnecessarily about funding gaps
and cuts in service. Wherever possible, Authorities have sought
to assure communities that they can continue to rely on their
policing services, and that the service will strive to ensure
that, by working more effectively, it will protect the public
from loss of services even though the funding is falling.
19. Nevertheless, many Authorities and Chief
Constables face some hard choices over the next few years, and
it appears inevitable already that there will be an impact on
police officer numbers. When this happens, it will be important
to view it in context. Numbers do not tell the whole picture,
and it is important to look at capacity in the round. For many
years, the service has been moving uniformed officers from support
roles into front line policing, and at the same time establishing
specialist technical teams. The combined effect has been to increase
capacity and productivity at the front line. This process has
further to go.
20. The period between now and the start
of 2011-12 provides a degree of breathing space, and the opportunity
to reconfigure the base spending level and to put in place the
measures which will enable the service to operate effectively
within a significantly reduced resource level in the future. In
the immediate future the service as a whole should have the resources
available, and the opportunities for increased productivity, to
protect service levels from unacceptable cuts. The pressure bears
differently on individual Authorities; simplistic assumptions
on the capacity to absorb more or make savings do not apply equally
across the country. A lot depends on the original starting point,
and the measures which have already been put into effect locally.
There are already some forces which are being forced to cut services
while at the same time using reserves to keep within capping limits;
at the same time, other forces are continuing to generate efficiencies
which are enabling services to be protected.
21. The long term prospects get considerably
worse.
22. The service is feeling the effect of
the recession in a variety of ways, and at the same time, there
is evidence already of an increase in volume and acquisitive crime,
which can be expected to increase if unemployment keeps rising
and community regeneration goes into reverse. Evidence from previous
recessions is that there could be a time lag before the full effect
is apparent; it could take up to three years (2012) before the
impact of unemployment feeds through fully into crime patterns.
There is evidence of a correlation between serious disorder and
rising unemployment since the 1970s.
23. Overall, therefore, the 2009-10 settlement
provided welcome stability, but the service needs longer term
flexibility, and recognition that not all police authorities are
at the same starting point, or face the same range of pressures,
or have the same capacity to increase productivity. Police authorities
need room for manoeuvre in the short term on local funding levels,
but also assurances that other central funding streams—which
support substantial numbers of policing posts—will not be
withdrawn without careful consideration of the consequences.
24. The service is already taking steps
to adjust to the expected reduction in resources. Recent surveys
suggest that the action being taken during 2009-10 includes:
— Higher efficiency targets.
— Adoption of QUEST or similar initiatives.
— Collaboration projects.
— Invest to save projects.
— Increase in income and charges.
— Cancellation or deferral of revenue and
capital projects.
25. Only a small number of Authorities are
expecting to reduce police officer numbers or staff establishments
as a whole in 2009-10.
EFFECTIVENESS OF
POLICE INVESTMENT
26. The service has enjoyed substantial
levels of growth over the last 10 years, and the ability to generate
efficiency savings over and above this has provided effective
potential to increase resourcing by up to 3% p.a in real terms.
However, while acknowledging the real growth, it is fair to point
out that some of the growth in the early years was to offset reductions
in the early to mid 1990s. Also the real growth in funding has
been matched by real growth in demand for policing; this is referred
to in more detail later in this section.
27. It is important to draw the distinction
between national and local policing budgets. While local resources
have expanded, there has been an even bigger expansion in central
resources to deal with serious and organised crime, primarily
through SOCA, and in respect of the national terrorism threat.
28. Cuts of 10% and more are unlikely to
be feasible without impacting upon officer numbers, which remains
the primary criterion by which policing capacity is measured.
Whole of force productivity, however, cannot be reduced to a simple
metric of officer numbers. It seems quite feasible that officer
numbers might reduce while productivity and service levels are
maintained, or indeed increased. However, while the current misplaced
debate continues, the ability of forces to take a holistic approach
to improving organisational productivity is constrained. While
the public and politicians may continue to focus on police officer
numbers, attention needs to shift to overall service delivery,
29. Regardless of definition, it stands
to reason that cuts to funding must at some point impact service
levels and possibly police officer numbers. Such an outcome is
sorely undesirable and must be avoided.
30. It may be possible to link productivity
improvement more firmly to costs by:
— using productivity and increased capacity
to take on new roles; and
— switching between uniformed and non uniformed
establishments.
31. While it has been commended for its
achievements in bringing down crime level, and expanding officer
numbers, there remains a view in some quarters that the extra
money has not bought everything that was intended.
32. This view has been articulated on more
than one occasion by the Home Affairs Committee. While the service
would be the first to agree that there is more to be done by way
of reducing bureaucracy and working more productively, it has
responded robustly to some of the Home Affairs Committee's arguments.
In particular the Committee has tended to focus very simplistically
on the relationships between funding, officer numbers and crime
levels. All three are important criteria, but by restricting the
debate to these three factors alone, it ignores many of the realities.
33. The true comparison is between police
workload (what has to be done) and police capacity (the
effective resources with which to do things). Both are much
wider concepts, and the effectiveness of Policing is the ratio
between the two.
34. Workload is a function of:
— Statutory duties—which keep expanding
(examples in recent years include: PACE, Criminal Justice Act,
Sex Offender monitoring; Licensing laws; ASBOs, Immigration policy,
Freedom of Information, Stop and Search, Health and Safety).
— The rules and regulations which govern
how Policing is delivered; the outcome of public inquiries such
as Lawrence, Laming, and Bichard inevitably lead to changes in
the way that issues are handled in the future, and these include
new codes of practice, data collection and recording systems,
and the establishment of new specialisms (child protection being
an example).
— Procedures—because it can affect
how long things take.
— Governance—because it adds to the
process.
— Demands—there is a big difference
between crime types in terms of the work needed to deal with them.
— Expectations—from Government, the
media, the public.
— Changes in the customer base, in absolute
terms (population/infrastructure) and in the mix (age, migration,
ethnicity, religion).
— Changes in the style and level of service,
including more extensive response to specific policing issues
(eg. community intelligence).
— External factors such as technology and
international tensions.
— Inspection and audit requirements.
35. Capacity is a function of:
— Support staff/support resources (equipment,
advice, buildings).
— IT and technical support (it may enable
things to be done better and quicker).
— External influences (transfer of functions;
expansion of the wider policing family).
— Delivery models and productivity.
36. Some of the issues are interconnected.
Capacity can be influenced by workload. For example, expansion
of crime prevention may generate a longer term reduction in crime
which leaves spare capacity to utilise on other areas. Similarly
CCTV and DNA make the service more effective, but they impact
on both capacity (by enhancing the ability to solve crime) and
workload (by generating more information and potential crimes).
37. The choices for the future are stark.
The short term effect of recession will have a double impact—resources
could be reduced at a time that demands are increasing, and this
could widen the gaps. Labour markets may be reshaped as unemployment
rises and the country looks to the sectors which will drive the
economy out of recession. In the immediate future, this could
leave vulnerable groups (the elderly and immobile, young people,
low skills groups, single parents). It is also proven that people
living in generally deprived areas perceive more problems in community
safety and crime.
TAKING STOCK
38. The service has delivered on its objectives;
it can point to many positive indicators:
— Performance levels are holding up.
— Officer numbers have increased, together
with the quality and ranges of services delivered.
— Overall crime levels are falling, even
after allowing for changes in recording practice.
— The service has outperformed most other
parts of the public sector in efficiency gains and "use of
resource" audits.
— Rank structures have been reviewed, and
the major element of the growth in officer numbers has been concentrated
on police Constables and PCSOs.
— National initiatives such as QUEST are
helping to deliver improved services while releasing resources.
— There are many powerful examples of local
innovation, collaboration and partnership working.
— The investment in Neighbourhood Policing
has delivered gains in confidence and satisfaction: a 42% fall
in crime has been accompanied by a reduction in risk of being
a victim from 40% (1995) to 24% (2007).
— Neighbourhood teams are demonstrating
the effectiveness of "joined up" policing.
— Successful regional programmes, and an
expansion of regional collaborative working.
39. At the same time however, there are
some significant negative indicators:
— Perceptions—despite the reality,
only one in five people believe that crime is falling; less than
half believe officer numbers are increasing.
— Public confidence in the service remains
too low.
— The public focus on Neighbourhood level
action could take resources away from equally essential protective
services.
— The pressures—both financial and
operational—are increasing; future efficiency savings could
hit core functions.
— Future funding levels cannot be guaranteed.
— The obsession with police officer numbers
can restrict options.
— The biggest threat for the immediate
future is whether crime levels start to increase again; if they
do, it will have a compounding effect on the fear of crime, and
could undermine some of the community cohesion which has been
carefully rebuilt over the last five years.
The role of the Police Service in a modern society
40. The police service plays a diverse and
wide-ranging role:
— Crime solving and prevention.
— Maintaining public order.
— Promoting confidence and feelings of
safety.
— Enforcing standards of behaviour.
— Maximising the socio-economic benefits
of policing.
41. So Policing "helps set the tone";
but to do this successfully the service has to be responsive to
how society evolves and the challenges it faces.
42. The challenges facing society now and
in the next five years:
— Responding to the social and economic
impact of the downturn.
— Shortage of money, which impacts directly
on individuals and families, but also indirectly due to the reduction
in the resourcing of other public services.
— Maintaining confidence in public services.
— Tendency towards lower respect for the
law/growth of the black economy as a response to social and economic
problems.
— Loss of direction as money becomes the
primary factor in public services.
— Loss of momentum—strategies which
have been carefully developed over many years, such as Equalities,
Youth engagement and regeneration, could be sidelined or disrupted,
and take many years to re-establish. This could have a detrimental
impact on crime levels.
— Maintaining LAA commitments, and the
impact on confidence when they have to be abandoned.
43. .. in this scenario, what does the police
service need to do in order to meet what people and the Government
want?
— Visibility must be maintained
— The psychological significance of police
numbers must be acknowledged
— There needs to be a speedy response to
calls of all types
— .. and effective action when dealing
with the problem
— Officers must be well trained to deal
with the business of policing and community safety
— The service must provide good and visible
VFM and |
— | install and maintain top class management
— Authorities and Forces must maintain
good governance standards in areas such as ethics/standards/ fairness/holding
to account
— It must be accessible and embedded within
the fabric of local communities
Risks of under-resourcing the police service
44. The benefits of a well resourced police
service are easily visible in terms of public confidence, safer
communities, and the reputation of the country as a well ordered
society. Over the last decade, the police service has enhanced
its capabilities in investigation and response, and has invested
massively in community/neighbourhood policing resources. Investment
needs to be maintained as far as possible in all three areas.
The risks of reducing the resources available in such a way that
existing service levels cannot be maintained are significant.
— Public confidence—Community Policing
is crucial to the service's ability to deliver the confidence
target, and any reduction in this area—in order to protect
response and investigation—could have a serious impact;
instead of increasing in line with the Home Office's aspirations
in the single target, there could be a downward spiral, which
could gain momentum. The psychological impact of a return to increasing
crime levels and social disturbance could be very deep, and take
many years to reverse.
— If expectations continue to increase
at the same time—because people look to the service to protect
them when everything else is under threat—the gap will be
accentuated.
— National resilience could be threatened
at a time when it is most needed, in the run up to 2012 and with
continuing fears about worldwide terrorism.
— The expansion and embedding of Neighbourhood
Policing within communities could stall at a time when the public
most need confidence in their local support.
— Potential loss of continuity on long
term crime and community safety which could change the pattern
for future generations.
— A reduction in the police contribution
to delivering other public sector programmes.
— Unfinished developments; wasted investment
in research and change programmes.
— More difficulty for national and regional
police units to target the local areas most in need, because the
community presence will have reduced.
DEVELOPING A
STRATEGY FOR
THE SERVICE
45. The first requirement for the next CSR
period is realism. There is no point in aiming for unaffordable
aspirations. The message on public funding is clear, and while
it has not been set out publicly, services could well be advised
to plan for a new lower level of spending which may last for up
to 10 years.
46. The long term underlying trend in demand
for Policing is upward, driven by government, demographic and
economic changes, and expectations. There is no reason to think
that these influences will be any less strong in the next CSR
period and beyond. Therefore, a priority for the service will
be to manage stakeholder expectations effectively, so that people
understand what it is reasonable to expect in the future. This
may involve a reduction in current levels in some areas, if other
aspects of the service are to be protected. This is where the
use of resource allocation techniques and a better understanding
of capacity and workload will assist achieving overall VFM for
the service.
47. It is also essential to be realistic
about timescales. Over a period of three years, which is effectively
covering most of the next CSR period, the emphasis should be on
productivity and achieving efficiency gains on current programmes.
Over a longer period (up to five years), it is feasible to look
at new ways of doing what is done now. Beyond the five year horizon
there is real scope to consider more transformational changes
in what the service does, who it interacts with, and how it is
delivered. With fixed three year CSR periods, it is easy to fall
into the trap of simply fine tuning current services.
48. In the forthcoming climate, it is even
more important to enter into discussions as early as possible
on new approaches to service delivery which might provide the
flexibility to join up services and improve outcomes, which will
assist the police service in managing within the likely reduced
long term funding levels.
Home Office priorities
49. The first five of the priorities in
the Home Office Strategy 2008-11 relate directly to the police
service:
— To help people feel secure in their homes
and local communities;
— To cut crime, especially violent, drug
and alcohol related crime;
— To lead visible, responsive and accountable
policing;
— To support the efficient and effective
delivery of justice;
— To protect the public from terrorism;
Local Indicators
50. The latest guidance shows that there
are 188 indicators in the National Indicator Set (NIS). Of these,
19 are APACS indicators. In addition, however, there are at least
36 other indicators which feature in the NIS but not APACS, but
where the police service has a direct involvement. Taken together,
the two categories represent 29% of the national indicators.
Potential new developments
51. The next CSR is not the time for launching
major new initiatives unless the costs can be found within existing
resource levels by working more cost effectively or by changing
the mix of services.
52. In establishing the future planning
environment, however, it is helpful to capture some of the future
changes which have been identified by the service and by independent
research, and which will have an impact directly or indirectly
on policing in the next five to 10 years.
— Short term and longer term impact of
the economic downturn (impact on individuals, communities, acute
localised problems).
— An increasingly diverse society (there
are over 120 nationalities represented in some force areas already).
— New population clusters; increased risk
of local tensions.
— Continuing globalisation (in terms of
industry, migration and crime).
— Terrorism and international instability,
and the need for early, effective intervention.
— Policing the Olympics and the preparation
for the event.
— Population growth (up to 2020, growth
due to migration and longevity is expected to exceed that of the
1980s and 1990s).
— Family and community structure changes.
— Changes in the role and delivery of other
public services (as they are affected by the financial crisis).
— The generations now reaching middle and
old age have higher expectations of public services than their
predecessors.
— Impact of housing and economic growth.
— The accelerating growth in high-tec crime.
53. Resource forecasts for the future:
— Drawing on recent independent studies
of the national finances, the arithmetic concludes that the service
could at worst face cash reductions of over 10%, possibly phased
in over three years from 2011-12. Even on the most optimistic
assumptions, the service could face a cash standstill for several
years, which would be the equivalent of 2% or more per annum reduction.
— | so the challenge for the police will
be to maintain services and provide what the public wants/society
needs, within a severely reduced resource guideline.
— Reducing the unit cost of services through
efficiency savings.
— Adjusting expectations about what is
achievable.
— Reducing service levels by cutting out
functions, transferring them or reconfiguring them.
Exploring the potential impact under the most
pessimistic scenario
54. The impact of a 10% cut in funding would
be nearly £1.2 billion per annum. Can this amount of money
realistically be cut from policing budgets?
55. The cost structure of the service is:
| |
|
| Net costs after
income/grants
£m (*)
| % |
| |
|
| Uniformed police officers | 5,441
| 46.7 |
| PCSO/traffic wardens | 395 |
3.4 |
| Other staff | 2,485 | 21.3
|
| Police pensions | 1,889 |
16.2 |
| Other running costs | 1,311
| 11.2 |
| Capital financing charges | 138
| 1.2 |
| 11,659 | 100.0
|
| |
|
Notes:
— * figures taken from the last published outturn figures, for 2007-08
— Pension costs have been extracted from police pay, based on analysis in CIPFA Stats
— Income and specific grants have been apportioned over police pay, capital financing, and other running costs based on analysis in CIPFA Stats
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56. Using the figures above, the required savings for
different assumptions on the reductions in total spending are
as follows:
| |
| £m |
| |
| 5% cut in total spending | 585
|
| 10% cut in total spending | 1,170
|
| 15% cut in total spending | 1,755
|
| 20% cut in total spending | 2,340
|
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57. The capacity to make reductions in spending will
vary across the main budgetary heads if the aim is to minimise
the impact on front line, visible, policing. For example, external
third party costs, or supplies and services might be considered
the first targets as they are distanced from the front line. By
contrast, continuing to measure service performance in terms of
absolute numbers of police officers strictly limits the capacity
to reduce costs without adverse consequences.
58. The capacity to release costs across the budget is
affected by a number of factors:
— The scale of the expenditure on particular functions.
— The ease with which savings can be released.
— The timescales over which that could be managed.
— The impact on "front-line" policing or the
quality of service.
59. Some elements of the budget—capital financing
costs and large parts of the Pensions budget—are essentially
fixed in the short term.
60. There are very important interdependencies in other
areas. For example, a reduction in police officers numbers may
be offset by transferring more operational support work to non-uniformed
staff. By the same token, directing reductions towards the "back
office" (whatever that is) will not necessarily improve the
cost effectiveness of services if it means police officers picking
up additional routine bureaucracy, or that the impetus for improvement
through IT development and specialist support functions is lost.
61. In many ways, staff budgets are the easiest to adjust
in the short term, as there is always a natural turnover of staff
through retirements and leavers. The biggest element of policing
budgets is uniformed officers, which on its own represents nearly
half of the costs. It is not surprising, therefore, that many
Forces will have to look at these areas of the budget if the required
saving in total costs is beyond the service's short term capacity
to release savings in other parts of the budget.
62. Many of the significant productivity and cost efficiency
improvements will take several years to design and deliver fully.
Some areas of the policing budget are subject to long term contracts,
which will take time to adjust. Similarly the real capacity for
collaborative savings will be shaped by the need to bring all
the collaborating forces to the same starting point at the same
time. This may mean that the short term reaction, in 2009-11,
will be in those areas of the budget where the tap can be adjusted
easily and swiftly. The more medium term response may look different
if the service is successful in making the more fundamental changes
which will be required in order to manage within substantially
reduced budgets.
Exemplifying the implications of a 10% reduction
63. Taking a very basic approach, the order of priority
for cost savings might be considered to be:
(i) non operational support costs;
(ii) operational support; and
(iii) front line resources.
64. For the reasons outlined in the previous section,
this is a gross over simplification of the picture. However, given
the cost structure of policing budgets, simple arithmetic indicates
that there is a limit to the amount that can realistically be
removed from available non-front line budgets without adversely
affecting front line delivery. Supplies and services budgets include
many outsourced or critical operational services such as custody,
forensic science and pathology, interpreter fees, investigation
expenses; in addition there are substantial commitments to key
infrastructure such as telecoms networks, radio communications
and computing. Cuts in these areas could have as big an impact
as reducing police officers or staff.
65. Even if for example, 20% of support staff budgets
were removed, it would only reduce total financial requirements
by around 4%. Theoretically taking 20% out of these budgets, even
if supplemented by cuts in accommodation, transport and supplies
on the same scale, would not create the headroom to take 10% out
of the service as a whole without impacting on front line resources.
Even in the support budget areas, there are significant elements
of costs which are fixed or semi-fixed, and there is a minimum
level below which costs cannot fall without affecting the infrastructure
of the services. The appropriate level will differ for every force.
The make up of staffing costs
66. Nevertheless, if operational capacity is to be maintained,
and the headline commitment to police officer numbers protected
as far as possible, it is inevitable that non operational staff
establishments and other support budgets will come under the spotlight
initially. The scope to reduce costs will vary from area to area.
Options will include measures to improve productivity, collaboration
within the service (between Authorities or regional groups), collaboration
with other public services, and national initiatives to promote
functions in support of the whole service. There will also be
a need to look critically at the functions which are undertaken,
and ask challenging questions. Nevertheless, cutting support staff
budgets is not a risk free option. In making reductions, it is
vital that the basic processes of governance and accountability
are maintained. Also, force based support staff play a significant
role in maximising police officer capacity by taking on administrative
functions. The service must be careful that it creates the most
effective balance.
Potential implications for uniformed resources
67. Working through the arithmetic, purely for illustration
because the impact would differ in every force, if it were feasible
to take 20% out of non staff budgets and up to 25% out of non-operational
staff budgets, it would still require significant reductions in
uniformed staff budgets.
| |
| £m |
| |
| Savings required from uniformed staff budgets
| |
5% cut
| Nil |
10% cut
| 260 |
15% cut
| 845 |
20% cut
| 1,430 |
| |
| |
Implications for police numbers
68. Total uniformed police numbers are approximately
140,000 at present.
69. Working on an average cost per employee of £45,000
(including pensions and other employer costs), the implied reduction
from the assessment above is a reduction of between 5,800 officers
(10% real cut) and over 30,000 officers (20% real cut).
70. This demonstrates quite starkly that because there
are practical limits on how much can be taken out of non uniformed
areas of the budget, the potential impact on police officer numbers
increases disproportionately as the overall savings target increases.
While the assumptions in the model can be challenged, it is unrealistic
to assume that more than 20-25% can be taken out of support budgets
without a direct impact on police officer capacity. So the overall
conclusion would be unlikely to change.
Service implications
71. Reducing the absolute numbers of police officers
sacrifices one of the principal national and political objectives.
It also potentially undermines the priorities of the public in
terms of measures such as visibility, speed of response, follow
up, and community involvement.
An alternative approach: increasing output
72. To a degree it may be possible to offset some of
the impact by working more effectively and productively, so that
the same volume of work is done by fewer police officers.
— How realistic is this given current commitments and
expectations? Can these be adjusted downwards, and what is the
educative process that needs to take place in order to achieve
this?
— Do the measures currently being evaluated by NPIA,
HO/WEF and individual Authorities offer the capacity to achieve
that level of reduction in the short term? Do we in fact need
a more fundamental look at Policing and how it is delivered, and
by whom? (ie does everything which is done now actually need to
be done by uniformed police officers?)
— Can the visibility target be achieved with fewer officers?
It may mean:
— Changes in the style of working, with front line officers
concentrating purely on visibility and presence, and other staff
dealing with the bureaucracy and the follow up. There would be
consequential changes to job content, working regulations and
procedures, and information systems.
— Transferring as many uniformed officers as possible
onto front line, visible duties. Risks "hollowing out"
support functions and actually decreasing productivity as functions
and roles are transferred or stopped.
— More use of lower cost alternatives to full time warranted
officers, including PCSOs, specials, wardens or volunteers.
Can any functions be cut out or transferred to other agencies?
73. There have been many reviews over the last 20 years,
with some positive impact on areas such as Highways Management,
escorting big loads, football policing, and stray dogs. The economic
environment we are now facing will make it more difficult for
other agencies to pick up duties transferred from police; however,
this is a national resource allocation issue—is it better
overall to maintain policing presence even if it means even more
pressure on other public services?
74. Even if further scope exists, it does not necessarily
mean that police numbers can be reduced if the "visibility"
criterion remains at the top of the priorities.
Consequential impact on other national priorities
75. The police service assists other public services
to achieve their targets. Reducing police resources can have an
adverse impact further up and down the chain. Examples include:
— The police service input to CDRPs and other local
partnerships.
— Providing the formal statutory frameworks for child
protection.
— Maintaining order and equality in an increasingly
diverse society.
— Balancing enforcement with education in areas such
as drug abuse and anti-social behaviour.
— Using the natural authority of the police service
to help set and maintain standards across all aspects of public
life.
— Leading the fight against serious crime and business/IT
related crimes.
— Providing the community intelligence to support the
fight against international terrorist activity.
76. It is illustrated by the number of national Performance
Indicators which indirectly involve the police service.
Managing expectations
77. This will be one of the biggest challenges for all
public services, but particularly for the police. Ministers, other
services, the media, and the public have all developed a concept
of what the police will do in terms of all the measures such as
visibility, response, follow up, public order, crime solving,
and many other indicators. If the cut in resources is at the upper
end of the scale, then even with increased productivity and significant
cuts in support costs, it is inevitable that there will be an
impact on services. Some things will not be done, or they will
be done less thoroughly, or responded to in a different way. The
public has never had to deal with this situation previously. The
sooner that the problem is grasped and the process of reconstructing
expectations starts, the smoother will be its implementation.
Restating the challenge
78. The anticipated cut back in resources is a national
problem, to be shared by everyone. It will only be achieved with
compromises, and will not be helped by a pretence that somehow
nothing will change, but it will just cost less.
79. The challenge is to be realistic in setting sights
and aspirations. If this isn't adequately accomplished, the service
faces up to 10 years of failure and progressive decline.
CONCLUSIONS
80. Police authorities accept the financial reality and
are utterly resolved to confronting the challenges ahead.
81. Police authorities will adapt as needs demand.
82. Much good work and progress on increasing efficiency
and producing savings has already been achieved, particularly
with support from fora such as the Workforce Efficiency and Finance
Group and the more recently convened High Level Working Group.
83. The future landscape for the police service is changing.
It is inevitable that resource levels will get much tighter in
the immediate future. If and when it is confirmed that this represents
a new long term level of spending on public services, the sooner
the service takes action and adjusts to the new levels, the better
for communities and the nation.
84. The dilemma will be where reductions should fall
if they are required, and the remaining future capacity to absorb
more within current resource levels. The risk of responding with
short term measures is that the longer term, more fundamental,
issues will not be addressed, and the impact could be greater
when that time arrives. Once the gap is quantified, it will be
of longer term benefit if it is addressed now, so that transitional
measures can be put in place.
85. Police spending is over £11 billion a year.
Inflation and real increases could average around £300 million
a year in aggregate.
The preliminary national forecasts for the next CSR included
just over 1% pa real growth in public spending, but this was before
the worst of the financial crisis had fed through. Even at that
level, however, commitments such as benefit payments and pensions
uplift would take all of the real growth and more, leaving other
services well into real term reductions. Every 1% shortfall represents
over £100 million for the police service (average £2.5
million per Force) and the true shortfall will be significantly
higher because there is always inbuilt real growth from demographic
changes and new legislation. At the "consensus" level
of 10% cuts over three years, the police service needs to remove
around £1.2 billion from its budgets.
86. In that scenario, the service will need a planned
transition to the new level, using a combination of:
— Efficiency and productivity improvements.
— Different ways of working.
— Curtailing or transferring specific functions.
— Withdrawing from specific roles.
87. The service will have a better chance of success
if the strategy is planned over at least three to five years.
A year at a time approach is unlikely to achieve this.
November 2009
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