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Nepal is the poorest country in South East Asia and the fifteenth poorest country in the world. It is regarded as a fragile state, having suffered 10 years of conflict prior to the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2006. We examined the Department for International Development's (DFID) programme in Nepal in the context of the policy shift announced in its 2009 White Paper of focusing more of its resources on fragile and conflict-affected states.
Nepal managed to make progress on a number of poverty indicators despite the deaths, displacement, and disruption to services which occurred during the years of conflict. However, poverty and inequality remain acute in Nepal. One in three people lives in poverty and half of all children are malnourished. The mountainous terrain compounds the difficulty in gaining access to essential services such as health, education and livelihood support. Inequalities based on ethnicity, caste and religion exacerbate exclusion and poverty.
A high proportion of post-conflict states fall back into conflict within five years of a peace agreement being signed. The risks for Nepal are clear. The political situation remains fraught; agreement is yet to be reached on a new Constitution; and the future of the 20,000 ex-combatants who fought for the Maoists during the conflict has yet to be resolved. It is for the people and Government of Nepal to find long-term solutions to these issues and to decide on the new federal structure which will be put in place. The international community should support the mechanisms set up under the CPA to facilitate a long-term solution and to help to ensure that the voices of the many and varied communities are heard.
DFID has a range of innovative and effective programmes in place, including support for livelihoods and economic growth. However, governance, justice systems and the security sector remain weak and open to corruption. Additional support to strengthen these systems is required. DFID should move quickly to agree new programmes in these areas, particularly given the commitment in the White Paper to treat justice and security as a basic service.
Climate change compounds Nepal's vulnerability. Predicted impacts include more rain during the monsoon and less during the already dry winter, and more frequent and more severe extreme events such as floods. Despite uncertainties over exact timescales, in the shorter term melting of the Himalayan glaciers will increase flood risks in Nepal and the wider region. In the longer term loss of ice cover combined with changing rainfall patterns could lead to increased strain on water resources. Nepal is now very close to having an agreed National Adaptation Programme of Action. DFID has committed funding for its implementation. It must also support the Government of Nepal to give climate change the policy priority which it merits.
DFID must ensure that its programmes in Nepal reach the poorest people and those least capable of gaining access to essential services. Its new focus on fragility needs to include targeted assistance for the most vulnerable people and communities, as well as supporting fragile countries more broadly. Besides being a moral imperative, if donors fail to assist the millions of people living in the most dire conditions, the global targets for poverty reduction enshrined in the Millennium Development Goals will not be achieved in Nepal or globally.
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