Annex B
CAVEATS FOR
COST OF
RE-OFFENDING
TEMPLATE
The following caveats should be considered when
using the template.
A. The caveats that would apply are sourced from
the earlier cost of crime estimates (Home Office Research Study
217) but apply to the updated estimates in the Home Office Online
report 30/05.
— The estimates are only an indication
of the cost of re-offending.
— Different crimes within the same offence
category are likely to have different costs. For example,with
shoplifting, at one extreme, high value items may be taken whilst,
at the other extreme, lower value items may be taken.
— The costs of an identical crime may
fall differently on different social or economic groups.
— Particular crime reduction initiatives
may impact on different types of crime within the same offence
category.
B. RDS can not confirm where the estimate
that 50% of crime is committed by offenders with previous convictions
but figures from a 1997 sentencing sample from the Offenders Index
do assist.
The rationale for the estimate is:
1. Crimes resulting in a conviction are
a random sample of crimes committed, and can be allocated to offenders
pro rata.
2. A previous conviction increases the probability
of being caught and convicted, the estimate from old modelling
work is that a known offender is up to twice as likely to be caught
and convicted as an unknown one.
3. The Active offenders who have not yet
been caught could be almost as numerous as the first time convictions,
assuming that very few individuals are caught in their first actual
offence.
4. Offending rates prior to conviction are
unlikely to be significantly different to offending rates of recidivists
after conviction.
5. Desisters after a first conviction will
probably have lower offending rates than recidivists.
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