Further supplementary memorandum submitted
by Rainer
INTRODUCTION
Rainer Communities that Care (RCtC) has been
working with local communities across the UK since 1998 when the
first three demonstration programmes were set up in Swansea, Barnsley
and Coventry. RCtC recommends to local partners that they re-survey
young people at regular intervals (three years) in order to:
— monitor the effectiveness of the
interventions, — keep the focus on preventative work,
and
— spot any new influences which may have
come into a community and which might change the risk and protection
profile to which young people are subjected.
To date, three areas (Swansea, Bridgend and
Wirral) have taken this advice and have asked us to resurvey and
analyse the new data so that it can be compared to the original
data. The following report gives a brief summary of the results
from these very detailed studies.
SWANSEA
The Swansea programme area is on the Eastside
of the city. It consists of one full ward and a small section
of an adjoining ward. The total population is around 10,000 and
is predominantly white with a higher than average proportion of
young people under 18 compared to the national average. The full
ward is in the top 100 of the Welsh Index of multiple deprivation.
The original 10 year prevention plan for the area
was developed during 1999 using the RCtC process—that is
by prioritising risk factors (based on an audit carried out in
1998) and assessing existing resources by comparing them with
interventions in Promising Approaches which have evidence of effectiveness
in reducing risk factors.
An evaluation of the Eastside programme carried
out by Sheffield University confirmed that the local partnership
followed the RCtC process closely and had been able to implement
most of the action plan due to three main reasons—it had
good project infrastructure and management, there was good partnership
working across all aspects of the project, the action plan was
quickly built into a number of long term developments taking place
in the area ensuring access to funding.
In 2001 the City and County of Swansea decided
to use the RCtC audit across the whole of the local authority
area and this allowed for resurveying to occur on Eastside using
the newly revised school survey. This provided a baseline against
which to measure the impact of the action plan. The survey was
repeated with those schools serving the Eastside in 2005 and a
detailed analysis undertaken to identify the changes in risk and
protective factors impacting on young people. The summary of that
analysis is shown below.
1. Demographics
— No significant differences between
the samples except for car ownership which has increased over
the time period. — Number of respondents who say they
have two cars has risen from 31% to 39%, three or more cars from
6% to 11%.
2. Problem behaviours
Alcohol Use:
Reduction has occurred in all five drinking
behaviours. NB The 2001 survey showed alcohol use to be significantly
higher in Eastside than the rest of Swansea.
Tobacco use:
The survey showed reductions in all three smoking
related questions.
Illegal Drug Use:
There were reductions in three of these responses.
No increases in other usage were recorded. Significantly, there
was no increase in self reported cannabis use.
Youth Crime:
There were recorded decreases in six types of
crime and antisocial behaviour questions. There were no reported
increases in other areas of criminal/anti-social behaviour.
3. Recorded changes in Risk Factors
The following table shows the risk factor scores
for those factors measured by the survey. Risks considered high
priority at the time of the 1999 survey are blocked in yellow.
Those risks identified as significantly lower than the rest of
Swansea in the 2001 survey are blocked in bold.
|
| Factors | 2001
| 2005 | Comments
|
|
| Poor Parental Supervision and Discipline
| 9.9 | 9.1 | Changes are reported in parents supervision of alcohol use and school truancy.
|
| Family Conflict | No significant difference
|
| Family History of Problem Behaviour | 8
| 6.4 | Less likely to have a sibling who regularly drank alcohol under 18.
|
| Parental attitudes condoning problem behaviours
| 5.7 | 5 | Parents less likely to condone cigarette smoking or cannabis use.
|
| Aggressive behaviour at school: bullying |
No significant difference
|
| Low commitment to school | No significant difference
|
| School disorganisation | No significant difference
|
| Community disorganisation | 13.8
| 11.2 | Less likely to say there are lots of fights, crime, drug dealing, abandoned buildings or graffiti in their area.
|
| Availability of drugs | 13.2
| 9.9 | Less likely to say it would be easy or very easy to get hold of alcohol, cigarettes, cannabis, cocaine/LSD/ecstasy or heroin.
|
| Alienation and lack of social commitment |
13.8 | 12.1 | Less likely to say it is OK to beat people up, take something without asking, cheat at school or that they ignore rules that get in their way.
|
| Attitudes condoning problem behaviours |
10 | 8.2 | Less likely to say that it was only a bit wrong or not wrong at all to play truant, drink alcohol, smoke cigarettes or pick a fight with someone.
|
| Early involvement in problem behaviours |
9.8 | 8.2 | Less likely to report having been excluded from school, drank alcohol regularly or smoked at 13 or younger.
|
| Friends involvement in problem behaviours |
10.1 | 8 | Less likely to say they had best friends who had been excluded from school, tried alcohol without their parents knowing, smoked cigarettes regularly, used other illegal drugs or carried a weapon to school.
|
|
Thus there has been a significant reduction in the level of nine
of the risk factors, four have remained at the same level and
none have deteriorated. Of the nine risk factors which have improved
four are ones which were specifically targeted by the action plan.
4. Protective Factors
The following table shows the protective factor scores.
|
| Factors | 2001
| 2005 | Comments
|
|
| School opportunities for pro-social involvement
| 25.9 | 26.9 | More likely to say that they had a chance to help decide things like class activities and rules and that they had lots of opportunities to be part of class discussions and activities.
|
| School rewards for pro-social involvement |
24.9 | 26.1 | More likely to say that their school lets their parents know when they have done well and to say that their teachers praise them when they work hard.
|
| Family attachment | No significant difference
|
| Family opportunities for pro-social behaviour
| No significant difference |
| Family rewards for pro-social behaviour |
No significant difference. |
|
NB, In these last two protective factors it is noticeable that
the Bonymaen area of Eastside, where most of the family activity
has been focused, has higher mean protective factor scores than
the Llansamlet and Birchgrove communities where there has been
little such work.
BRIDGEND
In 2000 Communities that Care started to work with four communities
identified as having significant levels of disadvantage. Three
of these communities are typical South Wales Valley communities
hit by the closure of the mines in the 70s and 80s whilst the
fourth is adjacent to the M4 and characterised by a high proportion
of public housing. Work started by surveying 7,500 or so 11 to
16 year olds living in the borough. With the benefit of this data
from young people, the community planning teams in the Garw, Llynfi
and Ogmore Valleys and the Pyle Cornelly region were able to develop
targeted prevention plans to reduce the level of risk factors
that young people would be exposed to over the coming years. Between
2001 and 2003 the planning teams in each community worked hard
to ensure that their action plans were implemented by the many
agencies whose work impacts on the lives of children, young people
and their families. In 2004 the survey was repeated and analysis
undertaken to compare the results from each of the four communities
where the RCtC process has been followed. The results are shown
below.
1. Demographics
Family structure has changed in the three valleys communities
between 2000 and 2004. In each area young people are now less
likely to be living with both parents. There has been no change
in the Pyle Cornelly region in this respect.
In all four communities there are signs of growing affluence with
young people being more likely to report having their own bedroom
and more likely to report that they live in a household with two
or more cars.
2. Problem Behaviours
There are significant improvements in the levels of problem
behaviours reported by young people in all four areas as shown
in the table below. There were no incidences of increased involvement
in any of the problem behaviours.
|
| Behaviour | Llynfi
| Pyle/Cornelly | Ogmore
| Garw |
|
| Use of alcohol | Reductions in five drinking behaviours eg binge drinking reduced from 41% to 35%
| Reductions in five drinking behaviours eg binge drinking reduced from 48% to 35%
| Reductions in two drinking behaviours eg regular drinking dropped from 37% to 24%
| Reductions in four of the five drinking behaviours eg binge drinking reduced from 43% to 35%
|
| Use of tobacco | Reductions in four types of smoking behaviour eg smoking at age 11 or younger down from 27% to 15%
| No changes in reported smoking behaviours |
No changes in reported smoking behaviours | Reductions in two types of smoking behaviour eg smoking at the age of 13 or younger down from 57% to 43%
|
| Use of illegal drugs | Reductions in three types of illegal drug use eg first sniffed glue aged 13 or younger down from 9% to 5%
| No changes in reported use of illegal drugs
| Reductions in seven questions about illegal drug use. Eg Ever used drugs down from 27% to 21%.
| Reductions in nine questions about illegal drug use. Eg ever sniffed glue aged 13 or younger down from 13% to 8%
|
| Youth crime and anti-social behaviour | Reductions in six types of criminal behaviour eg 19% said they had vandalised property in the past year compared to 28% in previous survey
| Reductions in three types of criminal behaviour, less likely to have stolen or tried to steal or vandalised property
| Reductions in four types of criminal behaviour, eg shoplifted in the past year down from 26% to 16%
| Reductions in eight types of criminal behaviour eg 23% said they had vandalised property in the past year compared to 36% in previous survey
|
|
3 .Risk and Protective Factors
The underlying risk and protective factors which have driven
the changes in problem behaviours are obviously complex given
the number of communities and risk factors involved. The following
table gives a brief summary and perhaps the most important point
to note is that there is a correlation between those communities
where the problem behaviours have improved most and those where
the risk and protective factors have improved.
|
| RCtC area | Llynfi Valley
| Pyle, Cynffig area |
Ogmore Valley | Garw Valley
| Totals |
|
| Risk factors which improved between 2000 and 2004
| 7 | 0
| 4 | 10
| 21 |
| Risk Factors which got worse | 2
| 3 | 1
| 0 | 6
|
| Risk factors that stayed the same | 7
| 12 | 10
| 6 | 35
|
| Protective factors that got better | 0
| 0 | 1
| 0 | 1
|
| Protective factors that got worse | 1
| 2 | 0
| 0 | 3
|
| Protective factors that stayed the same |
4 | 3
| 4 | 5
| 16 |
|
Thus out of a total of 62 risk factors that were measured across
four communities, 35 had remained the same, 21 had improved significantly
and six had deteriorated significantly.
Out of 20 protective factors only one showed a significant
improvement, three had got worse and 16 remained the same.
WIRRAL
The programme in the Wirral began in 2001 when one ward was
selected as one of the 30 or so On Track areas in England and
Wales to be targeted for preventative interventions as part of
a Home Office research programme. The Wirral community used the
RCtC process to draw up and implement an action plan and evaluators
from the On Track Evaluation team used the RCtC survey to evaluate
the change over time.
The results are summarised as follows:
1. Demographics
There were only two significant demographic differences between
the 2001 and 2004 sample. In 2004 young people were more likely
to say that they lived in a house owned by their family and more
likely to say that they lived in a household with two or more
cars.
2. Problem Behaviours
Alcohol Use:
Reduction has occurred in three of the five drinking behaviours
measured by the survey. See graph over page.
Tobacco Use:
The survey showed reductions in one of the three smoking
related questions. Pupils from the RCtC area 2004 sample were
significantly less likely to say that they had tried smoking cigarettes
at age 13 or younger (30% compared to 39% in 2001)
Illegal Drug Use:
There were reductions in five of these responses. No increases
in other usage were recorded.
Youth Crime:
There were recorded decreases in 10 types of crime and anti-social
behaviour questions. There were no reported increases.
3. Recorded changes in Risk Factors
The following table shows the risk factor scores for those
factors measured by the survey.
|
| Factors | 2001
| 2005 | Comments
|
|
| Poor Parental Supervision and Discipline
| 10.3 | 9.2 | Changes are reported in parents supervision of alcohol use and school truancy in particular
|
| Family Conflict | No significant difference
|
| Family History of Problem Behaviour | 10.2
| 8.3 | Less likely to say they had a sibling who regularly drank alcohol under 18, smoked cigarettes under 16 or had taken drugs such as LSD, ecstasy or cocaine
|
| Parental attitudes condoning problem behaviours
| No significant difference
|
| Aggressive behaviour at school: bullying |
No significant difference
|
| Low commitment to school | No significant difference
|
| School disorganisation | No significant difference
|
| Community disorganisation | 17.1
| 13.8 | Less likely to say that there are fights, graffiti, crime or drug selling in their neighbourhood.
|
| Availability of drugs | No significant difference
|
| Alienation and lack of social commitment |
14.1 | 12.2 | There were changes across all the questions asked in this section
|
| Attitudes condoning problem behaviours |
No significant difference
|
| Early involvement in problem behaviours |
10.9 | 6.4 | Less likely to report having tried a cigarette or tried smoking cannabis at age 13 or younger
|
| Friends involvement in problem behaviours |
11.8 | 10.0 | Less likely to have a best friend who played truant, smoked regularly, used illegal drugs, had stolen or tried to steal a vehicle or ever been arrested
|
|
4. Protective Factors
There were no significant differences in the levels of protective
factors experienced by young people in 2004 compared to those
reported in 2001.
CONCLUSIONS
In each programme area where risk and protection audits have
been repeated after a period of three years or more, there are
clear signs that conditions are improving for young people both
in terms of the underlying risk factors to which they are subjected
and in terms of their own involvement in problematic behaviour.
Without a control study, we can't claim that these improvements
are the result of RCtC's actions. The collaborative nature of
the RCtC process is such that any credit due would be shared by
all the partner agencies and the community itself. However, the
fact that we can see measurable improvement, that we have found
such improvement in all the areas which have so far repeated the
survey and the fact that the greatest improvement is in Swansea
where the RCtC process has been going for the longest is both
reassuring and encouraging.
For further information please contact Jonathan Lees on 0207
336 4800 or email jonathan.lees@raineronline.org
Jonathan Lees
August 2008
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