5 Conclusions
142. In this brief inquiry we have concentrated
on the preparations for the 2011 Census in London, and have assessed
the effects on London of the inadequate outcomes of the 2001 Census.
143. The overall enumeration rates—the proportion
of the population surveyed in the 2001 Census—in London
boroughs was very low, and unacceptably so in several inner London
boroughs. A coverage survey and a process of statistical imputation
sought to produce reliable Census population outputs for London
based on the data gathered in 2001. This attempt demonstrably
failed in respect of many London boroughs. Three boroughs succeeded
in achieving an official revision to their population figures.
Even though the Statistics Commission concluded in 2004 that "for
the remaining majority of London boroughs" the 2001 Census-based
population estimates remained the best available,[120]
several more boroughs believe that the 2001 population figures
significantly undercounted their populations, and that a flawed
2001 base has affected official population estimates in London
over the past decade.
144. It is not just the flawed outputs from the
2001 Census which have affected funding and support for service
provision in London. ONS annual mid-year estimates of population,
based on the 2001 Census outputs and using other official statistical
data to estimate population changes, have arguably been at their
weakest in London, since present methods for determining rates
of population churn, short-term migration into and out of London
and the destination of migrants to the UK are acknowledged not
to be robust. London boroughs have argued that poor official population
figures based on Census outputs in 2001 have been rendered more
inaccurate across the past decade through the methodology used
to produce mid-year estimates. Some boroughs now have little or
no confidence in the reliability of the official population figures
used by central Government for the calculation of funding formulae.
145. A 2011 Census exercise conducted in a way
which gave London stakeholders greater confidence in the accuracy
of the outputs would be a significant first step in rebuilding
trust in population statistics in London. We welcome the steps
which have been taken thus far to ensure that the 2011 Census
does not repeat the mistakes of 2001. At the same time, we urge
the Office for National Statistics and the UK Statistics Authority
to be forward-looking and prepared to respond to fresh challenges
as Census night approaches. There is merit in ensuring that the
Census exercise is geared up to meet in 2011 the challenges which
defeated it in London in 2001; but the danger of preparing to
fight again the battles of the last war is that incipient new
difficulties may be overlooked.
146. A comprehensive address register is an excellent
means to ensure that Census forms reach the front door of each
property in London, either by postal delivery via Royal Mail or
by hand delivery and collection by an enumerator. But ensuring
that each property receives a Census form is only the first step
in ensuring a successful Census.
147. Care has to be taken in ensuring that resources
are properly allocated to hand enumeration in London, the area
of the country with the largest hard-to-reach population and the
greatest number of enumeration challenges. We fear that if too
much reliance is placed on post-out and post-back of Census forms
in London, then an unacceptably large proportion of London's population
will not be counted because Census forms will not have reached
them, the significance of the forms will not be understood even
if they reach them, and the likelihood that they will be completed
and posted back will be low.
148. Similarly, we are concerned that sufficient
care is taken in recruiting enumerators who can do the best job
possible in reaching diverse communities in London, and that ONS
and London boroughs work hard to develop community outreach programmes
to communicate the importance of the Census and the need to ensure
as many completed returns as possible.
149. We have posed several challenges for the ONS
in London. We are not confident that, to date, ONS has fully taken
on board the complexity of London's population and the range of
challenges which will face its field force in raising the enumeration
rate and securing more accurate data to include in Census outputs.
150. ONS has described to us its improved liaison
and joint working with local authorities on the preparations for
the 2011 Census.[121]
We were therefore surprised to receive so much evidence from London
boroughs which indicated difficulties in communication with ONS:
we trust that ONS will take time to study the submissions we have
received and act on the points which have been raised. All six
witnesses from the three boroughs who gave oral evidence to us
on 8 February were emphatic that, as matters stood, there was
a real risk of a repetition of the undercounting of 2001 in London.[122]
151. While we acknowledge the efforts made by
ONS to deliver a successful Census in London, we consider that
there is more preparatory work to be done, and we urge ONS to
intensify its dialogue with London boroughs, especially those
with substantial hard-to-count populations.
152. We conclude with some words of support for
the ONS, which is mounting a highly sophisticated operation on
a national scale. We recognise the vital importance of the 2011
Census to the UK's statistical framework. At present, there is
no realistic alternative source of data which can provide comprehensive
and uniform coverage of the UK at a variety of output levels.
153. The fair funding of London's public services
throughout the next decade depends on a Census which is comprehensive
and accurate. We therefore strongly support the 2011 Census. If
it is to succeed in its aims, and if it is to provide as accurate
a picture as possible of the population of London, the Census
must continue to receive wholehearted support and adequate levels
of resourcing from the Government.
154. We note the aims of the ONS Beyond 2011 project,
which is examining options for the future gathering of population
data. It is important that population data is as accurate and
reliable as possible, and we support any proposals designed to
provide a more accurate picture of London's unique population
structure than that available through the Census and the annual
mid-year estimates.
120 Ev56[OfficeforNationalStatistics] Back
121
Ev 58 [Office for National Statistics] Back
122 Q
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