Conclusions and recommendations
1. Should
a successor to our Committee not be appointed at the start of
the 2010 Parliament, we recommend that the Public Administration
Select Committee, which has a remit to examine the work of the
UK Statistics Authority and the Cabinet Office, consider the response
to the report from the UK Statistics Authority and the Government
and determine whether any follow-up action is necessary in the
run-up to the 2011 Census. (Paragraph 19)
2. While we acknowledge
the overall success of the 2001 Census exercise in counting the
population of England and Wales, it is important not to lose sight
of the serious and acknowledged issues which arose in counting
the population in London. We recommend that particular issues
with a potentially serious effect on the accuracy of the 2011
Census in London are properly addressed. (Paragraph 23)
3. We are concerned
to note the lack of confidence some London boroughs have in the
official mid-year population estimates derived from the 2001 Census,
both as a means of planning for services and as a basis for funding
distribution. It is of substantial concern to us that some boroughs
have had to commission their own population estimates based on
administrative data sources for the purposes of planning service
provision. (Paragraph 45)
4. We welcome the
decision explicitly to include short-term migrants and those with
second homes in the scope of the 2011 Census. We expect these
steps to contribute to greater accuracy in the Census in London.
(Paragraph 52)
5. We welcome the
commitment of ONS to discuss its proposed outputs from the 2011
Census with local authorities before publication, and to revise
them if necessary. We consider this to be a potentially significant
step forward in meeting the concerns of London boroughs about
the accuracy of Census outputs. Noting the lengthy process which
resulted in the adjustment of Westminster's 2001 Census outputs,
we recommend that any discussions over the outputs of the 2011
Census in London be resolved speedily and fairly. (Paragraph 61)
6. We acknowledge
the significant efforts made by the Office for National Statistics
to learn from the outcomes of the 2001 Census, both in London
and nationwide, and note with approval the changes which the ONS
has made to its methodology and its practical arrangements in
order to achieve as accurate a Census as possible in 2011. (Paragraph
65)
7. Welcome as these
changes are, it is entirely likely that issues not encountered
in 2001 will arise during the preparations for, conduct of and
aftermath of the 2011 Census, both in London and elsewhere. We
expect ONS to have in place systems to recognise and respond to
any fresh risks and challenges as they arise. (Paragraph 66)
8. We recommend that
ONS co-ordinate its approach to tackling issues of under-enumeration
across those London boroughs where similar issues have been identified.
(Paragraph 73)
9. We welcome the
approach made by the Office for National Statistics to the London
Voluntary Service Council to seek dialogue on improving participation
rates in the Census. We are nevertheless concerned that a programme
of community engagement apparently initiated in 2006 had failed
to contact a prominent body representing the voluntary sector
in London until February 2010. We recommend that ONS take immediate
steps to review and intensify its work with the voluntary sector
in the run up to March 2011. (Paragraph 79)
10. Time to make adequate
preparations for meaningful community engagement in the 2011 Census
exercise is running worryingly short. We encourage ONS to build
on its existing contacts and to accelerate its plans for community
engagement through the voluntary sector in the run-up to April
2011. (Paragraph 81)
11. We are encouraged
by the development of a national address register for the 2011
Census. Such a register is vital for a successful Census in London.
(Paragraph 87)
12. We note the work
which ONS has already done to check and resolve conflicts between
the draft register and local authority and Post Office databases.
It is nevertheless important not to underestimate the challenges
of maintaining an accurate register of addresses for London in
the months which remain before Census night. We encourage ONS
and London boroughs to maintain and increase present levels of
collaboration, in order to ensure that the address register produced
for London is as accurate as possible. (Paragraph 90)
13. An accurate and
well-maintained national address register is an invaluable tool
for the 2011 Census, and will be vital for any future exercises
to quantify London's population. We find it barely credible that
the address register developed for the 2011 Census at substantial
effort and expense is to be abandoned following the Census for
reasons connected to the ownership of the intellectual property.
(Paragraph 93)
14. We concur with
the UK Statistics Authority in recommending that the address register
prepared for the 2011 Census be maintained as a public resource.
We recommend that the Government urgently seek to resolve any
outstanding issues with the maintenance of the register after
April 2011, and to provide sufficient resources for its continued
maintenance and development. (Paragraph 94)
15. A crucial element
of the Census exercise is the confidentiality of the personal
data collected. We are satisfied that the arrangements ONS has
put in place for maintaining the confidentiality of the information
gathered in the Census are robust. We recommend that ONS and local
authority campaigns urging participation in the Census emphasise
not only its confidential nature but also the impact that non-completion
or under-completion of Census returns can have on local authority
funding and ultimately on local provision of services. (Paragraph
100)
16. We recognise the
balance which must be struck between ensuring a high response
rate to the Census in London and ensuring that the Census operation
for England and Wales as a whole is properly resourced. It is
nevertheless crucial that, given the challenges facing the Census
in London, the proportion of Census staff allocated to enumeration
in London is adequate to the task. (Paragraph 116)
17. We recommend that
ONS publish for discussion, as soon as is practicable, its detailed
plans for hand-delivery of Census forms in London, and engage
London boroughs and other stakeholders in dialogue about the most
effective ways to ensure that Census forms can be delivered and
collected in hard-to-count areas of the capital. (Paragraph 117)
18. We recommend that
in its final preparation for the Census ONS should work closely
with local authorities to learn from their experiences of electoral
registration. (Paragraph 127)
19. We recommend that
ONS and Capita work intensively with Jobcentre Plus and local
jobs partnerships in London boroughs to ensure that advertisements
for 2011 Census field force roles are actively targeted to reach
as diverse a cross-section of London's communities as possible.
(Paragraph 129)
20. Following recruitment,
we recommend that ONS takes particular care in assigning enumerators
to neighbourhoods where forms will be delivered and collected,
to ensure the best match between enumerator and local community.
(Paragraph 130)
21. We recommend that,
in its response to our report, the Government include the memorandum
promised by the Minister for London on the effect on London boroughs
of population underestimates in the 2011 Census outputs and subsequently.
(Paragraph 139)
22. We welcome the
steps which have been taken thus far to ensure that the 2011 Census
does not repeat the mistakes of 2001. At the same time, we urge
the Office for National Statistics and the UK Statistics Authority
to be forward-looking and prepared to respond to fresh challenges
as Census night approaches. There is merit in ensuring that the
Census exercise is geared up to meet in 2011 the challenges which
defeated it in London in 2001; but the danger of preparing to
fight again the battles of the last war is that incipient new
difficulties may be overlooked. (Paragraph 145)
23. While we acknowledge
the efforts made by ONS to deliver a successful Census in London,
we consider that there is more preparatory work to be done, and
we urge ONS to intensify its dialogue with London boroughs, especially
those with substantial hard-to-count populations. (Paragraph
151)
24. We recognise the
vital importance of the 2011 Census to the UK's statistical framework.
At present, there is no realistic alternative source of data which
can provide comprehensive and uniform coverage of the UK at a
variety of output levels. (Paragraph 152)
25. The fair funding
of London's public services throughout the next decade depends
on a Census which is comprehensive and accurate. We therefore
strongly support the 2011 Census. If it is to succeed in its aims,
and if it is to provide as accurate a picture as possible of the
population of London, the Census must continue to receive wholehearted
support and adequate levels of resourcing from the Government.
(Paragraph 153)
26. We note the aims
of the ONS Beyond 2011 project, which is examining options for
the future gathering of population data. It is important that
population data is as accurate and reliable as possible, and we
support any proposals designed to provide a more accurate picture
of London's unique population structure than that available through
the Census and the annual mid-year estimates. (Paragraph 154)
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