Memorandum from the Demographics User
Group
The value of the Census and its questions to commercial
companies
1. The Demographics User Group (DUG)[1]
represents the views on matters relating to official statistics,
of major commercial companies—Barclays, Boots, Co-operative
Group, E.ON, John Lewis, Marks & Spencer, Sainsbury's, Tesco,
The Children's Mutual, and Whitbread—which make extensive
use of the Census.
2. These and many thousands of other companies
turn to the Census to provide information when making vital business
decisions, such as:
— Where are the best places for our new
outlets?
— Which branches should we close?
— What products and services should we
be offering in each of our existing stores?
— Where should we advertise?
— Who are our best customers, and our best
prospects?
— Which areas and people should we survey?
These issues are typical for the commercial
world, but there are also close parallels amongst public services.
(Further illustrations are given in a paper "Meeting the
needs of Census users in the UK's private sector").[2]
These are of course commercial decisions, but ensuring that evidence
exists, and is freely available, promotes business efficiency,
and in some cases, the UK's position as a worldwide leader.
3. The Census underpins many decisions involving
investments of billions of pounds by businesses every year. Very
few large companies still rely solely on "gut feel"
when reviewing their branch network or which prospects to target.
Making the right investment decisions is vital to business success.
The sums of money involved are considerable. For example, the
refurbishment of just one pub or restaurant often costs many hundreds
of thousands of pounds, whilst the development of a single new
superstore can exceed £20 million. Large companies with national
chains of stores, branches or restaurants each make decisions
about the investment of hundreds of millions of pounds a year:
Sainsbury's, for example, have stressed the importance of Census
information in developing their "Sainsbury's Local"
convenience stores.[3]
Further down the scale, a new start-up company might sink or swim
depending on whether its first outlet is in the best location.
Faced with the worst recession for 50 years, businesses need the
best possible information.
Why the Census is still better than alternative
sources of information
4. In order to understand their markets,
companies seek statistics for small neighbourhoods, across the
whole of United Kingdom, for a wide range of question topics.
Only the Census can currently provide this. Sample surveys only
produce estimates for large areas. Administrative sources, as
discussed in the Treasury Sub Committee's report "Counting
the Population"[4]
are not yet sufficiently integrated to classify people and areas
by several topics at once.
The importance of a wide range of questions
5. Since starting to use the Census 1981,
commercial companies have valued many of the established topics
that were also asked again in 1991 and 2001. Sometimes the interest
is in just one aspect (eg the population aged 25-29), but there
is often increased value in segmenting the population further
(eg the potential market of males, in professional occupations,
aged 50-64). Commercial companies are also heavy users of geodemographic
classifications, which classify every small area throughout the
UK by neighbourhood type, and typically are built using at least
40 diverse Census variables. The commercial classifications Acorn
and Mosaic, and the ONS's OAC, are used extensively to profile
local areas and also customer files.
Census consultation on questions—users'
varied needs
6. Members of the Demographics User Group
appreciate that the choice of questions for the Census form is
never easy, and has to cope with conflicting demands for limited
space. In our opinion, the Census Offices have done a good job
in seeking to assess users' needs, and making recommendations
for parliamentary approval.
7. Extensive consultation was held in 2005
which ranged across users in central and local government, business,
and academia. Many questions were supported by all users. Others,
such as a question on "Carers", are of great interest
to particular users.
8. Following the publication of a detailed
report in March 2006, there were doubts that the following established
topics could be included: Qualifications; Industry; Hours Worked;
Number of Employees. This would have severely damaged existing
classifications, and members of DUG were pleased that funding
for a 4th page was secured. Turning to the new questions proposed
for 2011, commercial users are pleased to see Second Residence
(making sure that every household is recorded at one of its addresses);
and Language (for local marketing). Other users, primarily in
central government, have made the case for new questions on national
identity and citizenship; month & year of entry, and intention
to stay; and number of bedrooms.
9. Our one major regret is that there are
no plans to include a question on Income, due to fears about the
possible effect on response. This topic is important to users
in all sectors. Income is regularly asked in censuses held in
Australia, New Zealand and the USA, and it is planned to be asked
in Scotland in 2011 for the first time.
Scope, cost, and maximising value
10. The Census is a unique opportunity to
collect detailed information which is of immense value to decision
makers in both businesses and government. The Test Census showed
that the inclusion of a 4th page had no significant effect on
response rates. Also, completion of the form on the internet will
be easier for many users. The cost, when weighed against the scale
of decisions to be taken by government and business over the decade
2013-2023, is small. The deletion of even a full page of questions
would make little difference to the cost, but result in many ill-informed
decisions. Our particular fear is that, in seeking to cut costs,
the ultimate outputs would suffer for very little saving. For
the 2001 Census, only 3% of the budget was spent on creating the
final statistics, which are of course the sole purpose of the
project. There is a real danger that, having carried out a much-needed
Census data collection, the Government will fail in the last hundred
yards to maximise the valuable statistical information that should
be produced.
November 2009
1 http://www.demographic.co.uk/dug.html Back
2
http://www.unece.org/stats/documents/2009.10.census.htm Back
3
"The 2001 Census and its significance for the commercial
world". Alison Green, Strategic Development Manager, Sainsbury's.
British Retail Consortium Solutions, March 2004. Back
4
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200708/cmselect/cmtreasy/183/183.pdf Back
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