Memorandum submitted by the British Geophysical
Association (GEO 02)
1. Our recommendation is that, before any
proposed geoengineering project proceeds, evidence-based geophysical
modelling of its effects should be carried out and must demonstrate
that, with appropriate hazard mitigation measures, relevant risks
are low and proportionate to the benefits that will be obtained.
2. Geophysics is the application of physics
to the study of the Earth and planetary systems. It includes the
understanding of atmospheric dynamics and atmosphere-Earth-Sun
interactions crucial to the prediction of climate and weather,
and the rock-fluid-gas interactions crucial to secure carbon dioxide
(CO2) sequestration. Much of this understanding has
come from computer modelling; with the sophistication of these
models increasing as computing power has increased. Where such
modelling is isolated from real evidence, there is a danger that
it can become unrealistic. By evidence-based modelling we mean
that the computer models used to test the effects of a geoengineering
intervention in the Earth's system have themselves been proved
against observations. Such observations depend on steady funding
and in some cases, a legal obligation to deposit them with a government
agency and hence are endangered by legal or financial neglect.
3. A variety of observations can be used
to test Earth system models. Laboratory experiments on real or
artificial rocks under pressure and permeated with fluid or gas,
and downhole and remotely-sensed (eg seismic) observations of
gas flow through rocks, have been used for many years by the oil
industry in enhancing production of subterranean oil and gas.
The storage and curation of records from these experiments is
needed to ensure that they are available for future proving of
geoengineering-related models. The British Geological Survey,
for instance, has recently announced plans to integrate its "library"
of borehole cores and logging records from onshore and offshore
UK into a single modern facility within the National Geoscience
Data Centre. The evidence against which to gauge weather and climate
models includes centuries-long unbroken weather records. Continuing
to add to and preserve records such as these incurs a regular
cost that is prone to be cut when short-sighted cost savings are
made, because the economic benefit is not immediate. Further back
than the purposeful records, historical, archaeological, palaeontological
and geological evidence can all be gained by research. Such research
is expensive, painstaking and frequently unglamorous, as exemplified,
for instance, by the drilling of many boreholes in the seafloor
and careful identification and counting of microfossils in the
borehole cores by experienced palaeontologists. The Integrated
Ocean Drilling Program, to which the UK subscribes through NERC
and the EC, carries out such work. A commitment to continuous
support of this programme is essential to secure the evidence
of past climates and climate change that is necessary to predict
the likely effects of geoengineering.
4. Key to both the modelling and the testing
against evidence is the education of the next generation of geoscientists.
A strong maths and science background at school is required for
a geophysics degree. A 2006 report on university geophysics
education in the UK, commissioned by the BGA, found that a poor
appreciation of subjects such as geophysics and of their societal
impact leads many students to make ill-advised choices at entry
to Key Stage 4 that leave them unable to begin such a degree.
The Institute of Physics and especially the School Seismology
Project (based at the British Geological Survey) runs teacher
professional development courses that try to address this ignorance,
but teachers are finding it difficult to get time off work to
attend such courses. This contributes to a global deficit of geophysicists,
already noted by the oil industry. Unless addressed through improved
science and technology education at secondary school level, the
lack of good geoscience graduates will sap our national capability
to evaluate geoengineering projects rigorously.
The BGA represents UK geophysicists, particularly
in the fields of solid Earth and geomagnetic studies, and is a
joint association of the Royal Astronomical Society and the Geological
Society. Geophysics, the application of physics to the study of
the Earth and planetary bodies and their surroundings, is crucial
to the prediction of the effects of geoengineering.
We recommend that as well as incorporating the
attached submission into your final report you seek oral evidence
from leading geophysicists in the fields of Earth systems observation
and modelling.
Sheila Peacock
Secretary, British Geophysical Association
December 2009
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