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Memorandum
submitted by Dr James Lee GEO
01
1. Summary of Main Points
Cloud seeding is
a geo-engineering tool that is widely used by more than 30 countries. With
climate change, fresh water resources will be in decline in many parts of the
world, particularly around the equator. One result may be an increase in the
use of cloud seeding.. As cloud seeding becomes more effective and widely
disseminated, it may be a factor in conflict situations or a reason to
precipitate conflict. Disputes over cloud seeding could fall under the
Environmental Modification Treaty.
2. Brief Introduction about Me
I currently hold administrative and faculty positions at American University. Prior to that, I have worked at the U.S. Trade
Representative and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
3. Factual Information
Most recently, I am the author of Climate Change and Armed Conflict
(Routledge, 2009), "Global
Warming Is Just the Tip of the Iceberg", Washington
Post, January 4, 2009, and "A Brief History of Climate Change and Conflict",
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, August 14, 2009. I also run the web site, Inventory of
Conflict and Environment. http://www1.american.edu/ted/ICE/index.html
4. Recommendations
There needs to
be a better understanding of the modes for cloud seeding and its impacts. A
beginning point would be a multilateral registry of cloud seeding events with
information and data collection on key characteristics.
Cloud Seeding, Conflict, and Climate Change
Table of Contents
1. Climate
Change and Cloud Seeding
2. The
Environmental Modification (ENMOD) Treaty
3. A
Brief History of Cloud Seeding
4. Hostile
and Peaceful Uses of ENMOD
5. Building
a Multilateral Registry of Cloud Seeding Events
1. Climate
Change and Cloud Seeding
Countries will take measures to
counteract and adapt to climate change, namely trends of declining precipitation
and increasing temperature. There will be a great temptation and need to use cloud
seeding, the oldest and most common form of environmental modification (a type
of geo-engineering). Cloud seeding is an issue regarding fresh water resources,
rights, and obligations. As with other water issues, cloud seeding can be a
source of dispute. Climate change will cause differing regional impacts and thus
a variety of motivations for cloud seeding.
It is important to distinguish
between climate change and weather, since cloud seeding is more likely to
affect the latter. Weather is a state of the atmosphere over the short-term and
more likely at specific points and places. Climate is a long-term phenomenon
expressed as average weather patterns over a long period. Cloud seeding could affect
climate when carried out over a long period. Key measures of weather and
climate are precipitation and temperature.
The line between hostile and
peaceful uses of cloud seeding (and environmental modification in general) is
extremely thin and at times ambiguous. One country in the midst of a severe
humanitarian emergency may perceive cloud seeding as a benevolent act. A
neighbor country, encountering the same drought and humanitarian crisis, may
perceive their lack of rain as being "stolen" by their neighbor. The key word
here is "hostile", which of course is in the eye of the beholder.
2. The
Environmental Modification (ENMOD) Treaty
During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet
Union explored differing Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) that
included the use of nuclear, biological, and chemical devices. In 1945, the
mathematician John von Neumann met with other U.S. scientists to discuss the
possibility of deliberately modifying weather (a new WMD) as a tool of war (von
Neumann, 1955). Weather modification was one way to destroy Soviet agricultural
harvests, cause mass starvation, harm their economy, and incite internal
dissension. The goal was to make the Cold War very cold.
There was widespread use of geo-engineering during the Vietnam War. Between 1967 and 1972, the United States ran Operation Popeye, a cloud
seeding operation to disrupt transport of military supplies along the Ho Chi
Minh trail and aimed at parts of South and North
Vietnam, Laos
and Cambodia.
The operation occurred during the dry season when it was ordinarily easiest for
the North Vietnamese to move men and materials south. While the program was successful in causing
heavy rains out of season, it was not successful in stopping the flow of men
and materials southward. Heavy rains attributed to the cloud seeding program led
to catastrophic floods in 1971 that caused a poor harvest in North Vietnam.
The disclosure of Operation Popeye
led many to realize that such a tactic took the idea of "all-out war" to a new
level, and one that was disturbing. As a result, in 1977 countries agreed to the
"Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use of
Environmental Modification Techniques" (ENMOD). The treaty forbids the use of
environment in hostile circumstances and supports the use of weather
modification for peaceful purposes. Climate change is but one of a number of
environmental phenomena covered by this treaty.
Earthquakes, tsunamis;
an upset in the ecological balance of a region; changes in weather patterns
(clouds, precipitation, cyclones of various types and tornadic storms); changes
in climate patterns; changes in ocean currents; changes in the state of the
ozone layer; and changes in the state of the ionosphere.
(Convention
on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use of Environmental
Modification Techniques 1978)
A re-confirmation of the ENMOD principles occurred
at the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 1992 Earth
Summit in Rio de Janeiro.
The statement suggests far-reaching implications in the jurisdiction of a
nation's sovereign area.
"States have... in accordance with
the Charter of the United Nations and the principles of international law, the
(...) responsibility to ensure that activities within their jurisdiction or
control do not cause damage to the environment of other States or of areas
beyond the limits of national jurisdiction." (UNFCC, 1992)
Most techniques covered by the ENMOD
treaty are quite speculative. Causing earthquakes or tsunamis is far beyond the
capacity of current technology. Cloud seeding, on the other hand, is a
technology that is often used.
No country has invoked ENMOD, but
cases have been possible candidates. During the 1991 Gulf War Iraqi forces
burned oil wells on a large scale, placing huge amounts of particulates in the
air that may have affected weather patterns in neighbor countries. Iraq also polluted the Persian
Gulf with oil that did cause environmental damage to other states,
upset the ecological balance in a region, and led the mass sea life destruction.
3. A
Brief History of Cloud Seeding
Cloud seeding is one of several
rainmaking techniques. The first scientific demonstration of cloud seeding
occurred in 1946 in the United
States. The use of cloud seeding has
substantially grown over the last half century.
There is nonetheless controversy over
the efficacy of cloud seeding. While many countries report successes, the U.S. National
Academy of Science, National Research Council, published a study in 2003 that questioned
the utility of cloud seeding and the extent of impacts outside of local areas. The
report called for greater research into practices for understanding and
improving cloud seeding effectiveness. The reality is that many countries
practice cloud seeding and believe it works. Regardless of the scientific
debate, the perception of the viability of cloud seeding can lead to
dispute.
Cloud seeding causes precipitation
by introducing substances into cumulus clouds that cause condensation. Most
seeding uses silver iodide, but dry ice (solid carbon dioxide), propane, and
salt are also used. At least 30 countries have identified programs and some,
like China and the United States,
have extensive programs (See Figure 1). Most countries that practice cloud
seeding are parties to the ENMOD treaty, but China is not.
Figure 1
("Overview of Weather Modification
Programs Around the World", National Center
for Atmospheric Research)
There has been extensive use of
cloud seeding in the United States (see Figure 2), largely in the southern
states near the Mexican border. Programs concentrate on two geographical areas.
First, there are several south central states, such as Texas, prone to dry conditions in the summer
or during spring planting. Hail suppression is a concern in Kansas
and Oklahoma.
The other major nexus of use is the states in the Colorado
River Basin, including Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, Nevada, and California, who use it
to increase winter snowpack. North Dakota seeds
clouds for hail suppression and Idaho
for increasing fresh water resources.
Figure 2
Weather Modification in the United
States
("Overview of Weather Modification
Programs Around the World", National Center
for Atmospheric Research)
The year that the Katrina and Rita
hurricanes devastated the U.S. Gulf Coast, Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson of Texas introduced S. 517
[109th Congress] the "Weather Modification Research and Development
Policy Authorization Act of 2005". It
calls for greater research and development into cloud seeding (Section 5, "Duties
of the Board") with two key goals. (The measure has never become law.)
(1) improved forecast
and decision-making technologies for weather modification operations, including
tailored computer workstations and software and new observation systems with
remote sensors; and
(2) assessments and
evaluations of the efficacy of weather modification, both purposeful (including
cloud-seeding operations) and inadvertent (including downwind effects and
anthropogenic effects).
The United
States began technical assistance on
clouding seeding to the Mexican state of Coahuila in 1996. Canada uses cloud seeding for hail suppression
while Brazil, Argentina and Cuba use it for precipitation
enhancement. In November 2009, Venezuela
began cloud seeding operations after El Nino conditions led to droughts and
water rationing in Caracas.
Cuba provided technical
assistance to Venezuela
in carrying out the program.
China's
cloud seeding program is the largest in the world, using it to make rain,
prevent hailstorms, contribute to firefighting, and to counteract dust
storms. On New Year's Day in 1997, cloud
seeding made snow in Beijing,
for probably no other reason than popular enjoyment. During the 2008 Olympics, China
extensively used cloud seeding to improve air quality. China sees
cloud seeding as part of a larger strategy to lower summer temperatures and
save energy.
The Soviet Union and later Russia use
cloud seeding to assure good weather during political events, such as a rain-free
May Day parade. To save money, the mayor of Moscow proposes use to lessen winter snowfall
in the city.
Employing cloud seeding in
emergencies illustrates how perceptions of impact may differ. Soviet air force
pilots seeded clouds over Belarus
after the Chernobyl nuclear disaster of 1986 to
prevent radioactive clouds from reaching Moscow
and other major populated areas. (Grey, "How we made the Chernobyl rain", 2007). While Moscow saw benefit, Belarus surely did not.
Many Middle Eastern
countries are natural candidates for cloud seeding. France
conducted tests in Algeria
as early as 1952. Libya began
testing in 1971, Jordan in
1986, Iraq under Saddam
Hussein in 1989, and Syria
in 1991. Israel
has a long-standing cloud seeding program. Saudi
Arabia has experimented with cloud seeding, beginning in
1990 and is increasing its programs, particularly in the southwest portion of
the country near the Yemen
border.
Iran has long experience with cloud
seeding, especially around Yazd, the driest
major city in Iran.
"Statistical evaluation of the effectiveness of regular cold-cloud seeding
operation, carried out over the project territory in the Central part of Iran during the
period of operation, shows that from 0.7 to 1.9 km3 of additional water was
obtained about 22-40% of the natural seasonal precipitation annual." (Khalili, "Results of Cloud Seeding
Operations", 2008)
4. Hostile
and Peaceful Uses of ENMOD
Article I of the ENMOD treaty
requires members "not to engage in military or any other hostile use of environmental
modification techniques having widespread, long-lasting or severe effects as
the means of destruction, damage or injury to any other State Party". The
general intent of the treaty is to limit the use of ecology in a military
context. It distinguishes between weather related actions (short-term) from
those that are climate related (long-term). The key word of course is "or",
meaning any one of the three is sufficient to cause a treaty violation. The "Understanding Relating to Article
I" provides the three indicators of environmental modification covered by the
treaty and de minimus levels of
impact.
(a)
widespread: encompassing an area on the scale of several hundred square kilometers.
(b)
long-lasting: an act whose duration lasts months, or approximately a season.
(c)
severe: involving serious or significant disruption or harm to human life,
natural and economic resources, or other assets.
The treaty is clear on what
it forbids: widespread, long-lasting, or severe environmental modification. It is
thus quite revealing to consider what the treaty allows. It does permit cloud
seeding (or other actions) that may adversely affect a neighbor so long it is
undertaken without a military or hostile intent. Further, military personnel
could carry out a non-hostile action as long as it was without military intent.
The treaty permits weather modification by the military even with a hostile
intent when it is localized, short-term, and produces positive outcomes. These
exceptions obviously can lead to ambiguity in real situations.
First, widespread refers to the geographic scope covered by the
treaty. Treaty violations occur when impacts
exceed 300 square kilometers (or 186.4 miles), so a square of roughly 17.3
kilometers (or 10.7 miles) in length and width.
Washington, DC (a partial square city) is 177 square
kilometers in comparison, so these are not extremely large areas but they could
be home to millions of people.
The second concept is long-lasting, denoting time duration. One season corresponds
to about three months. The chosen months however would produce differing
impacts. If cloud seeding occurred during a planting season, it would mean the
loss of an entire year of production. If cloud seeding occurred in the winter,
to build snow pack for example, the impact may be benign or even positive.
The third premise focuses on
a severe disruption to the
environment and may be the most difficult concept to pinpoint. Specific indictors might use socio-economic
indicators (such as income) or human health markers (such as infant mortality).
A violation might significantly reduce ecological, economic or health
indicators. A full understanding of impacts may not occur until long after the
act occurred.
The treaty references assisting other
countries in transferring technology related to the development of harmful or
hostile ENMOD techniques. This implies the trade of materials, equipment,
technology, or expertise. Export technology treaties cover materials that may have
military application as dual-use technologies. The ENMOD Treaty suggests that
exports of cloud seeding technologies may as well fall into such categories.
5. Building
a Multilateral Registry of Cloud Seeding Events
ENMOD Article III, 2. The States
Parties to this Convention undertake to facilitate, and have the right to
participate in, the fullest possible exchange of scientific and technological
information on the use of environmental modification techniques for peaceful
purposes.
Little scientific exchange seems to
have resulted from the ENMOD Treaty. Exchanging information is of course a
first step in a confidence building process in the development of a treaty and
its understandings. In cases of environmental modification, collecting
information on activities is a necessary beginning point, starting with cloud
seeding. A multilateral cloud-seeding registry, that is voluntary, can begin to
reduce possible future ambiguities over weather modification by compiling and
releasing reports of country activity.
Registry information could include
detail on the clouding seeding event, starting with the scope, intensity, and
particular economic impacts on human health and economy. Countries might also
report the type of chemical used to induce rain and the subsequent
precipitation amounts in target and adjacent areas. The data collected might
also include specific indicators of widespread, long-lasting, and severe
impacts. The registry could be open to non-signatories. Countries that have not
joined ENMOD Treaty include China,
France, Nigeria, Indonesia,
Spain, Mexico, South
Africa, and Saudi Arabia.
As climate change and technology proceed, the desire and the ability
to claim fresh water will extend into the atmosphere and far underground. The
registry may be a means to offer transparency to uses of cloud seeding and
avoid ambiguities that may be the basis for dispute.
References
Cotton, W.R.,
and R.A. Pielke, Sr., 2007, Human Impacts
on Weather and Climate. Cambridge University
Press.
Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use of
Environmental Modification Techniques 1978.
Richard Gray, "How we made the Chernobyl rain", April 22, 2007, Telegraph,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1549366/How-we-made-the-Chernobyl-rain.html.
Morteza Khalili Sr.,
M. Seidhassani, F. Golkar, and V. Khatibi, "Results of Cloud Seeding Operations for Precipitation Enhancement in Iran
during 1999-2007", Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification/Weather
Modification Association, April 21, 2008.
http://ams.confex.com/ams/17WModWMA/techprogram/programexpanded_492.htm.
National
Academy of Science,
National Research Council, Critical Issues in Weather Modification Research,
2003.
"Overview of Weather Modification
Programs Around the World", National Center
for Atmospheric Research http://www.rap.ucar.edu/general/press/presentations/wxmod_overview/index.html
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, New York, 1992.
http://www.unfccc.de/resource/conv/conv_002.html.
Von Neumann, J., 1955,'Can We Survive Technology?' Fortune:
504-519.
Dr. James R. Lee
Associate Director for Technical Support and Training
Center for Teaching Excellence and Adjunct Professor, School of International
Service
American University
Washington, DC
December
2009
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