4. At the time of Budget 2008, the Treasury forecast
that GDP growth would be 1.75% to 2.25% in 2008, 2.25% to 2.75%
in 2009 and 2.5% to 3% in 2010.
This forecast was revised downwards in the 2008 Pre-Budget Report
later that year, in which the Treasury forecast 0.75% GDP growth
in 2008, a range of -1.25% to -0.75% in 2009 and 1.5% to 2% in
2010, with growth reaching 2.75% to 3.25% in 2011.
5. Budget 2009 saw another significant downward revision
to the Treasury's growth forecasts. The Treasury now forecast
a far sharper contraction in the UK economy of 3.5% in 2009, compared
to their forecast of -1.25% to -0.75%approximately five
months earlierat the time of the 2008 Pre-Budget Report.
Budget 2009 also forecast the resumption of economic growth of
1.25% in 2010 with growth then accelerating to 3.5% in 2011.
Table 1: HM Treasury, economic growth
|2008 Budget||1.75 to 2.25%
||2.25 to 2.75%||2.5 to 3%
||-1.25 to -0.75%||1.5 to 2%
||2.75 to 3.25%||-
||-3.25 to - 3.75%||1% to 1.5%
||3.25% to 3.75%||-
||-4.75%||1% to 1.5%
||3.25% to 3.75%||3.25% to 3.75%
Source: HM Treasury
6. The continuing uncertainty about the outlook for
the UK economy was demonstrated in the 2009 Pre-Budget Report,
with the Government yet again downgrading its growth forecasts.
The Treasury now forecasts that the UK economy will contract by
4.75% in 2009 1.25 percentage points more than its forecast
eight months earlier in Budget 2009. For later years, the 2009
Pre-Budget Report forecast a return to growth of 1.25% in 2010,
with growth then increasing sharply to 3.5% for the two subsequent
forecasts of growth in the UK economypublished by HM Treasury
alongside the 2009 Pre-Budget Reportbroadly concur with
the Government's revised growth projections for 2009 and 2010.
The average of new forecasts was also for -4.5% growth in 2009,
with a range of -4.1% to -4.7%. The average of new forecasts
for 2010 was 1.4%, but with greater uncertainty than in 2009,
represented by a far wider divergence in forecasts which ranged
from -0.5% to 2%.
7. The UK economy remains in recessioneconomic
growth was calculated at -0.2% for the 3rd quarter
in his statement to the House on the Pre-Budget Report the Chancellor
said that he was confident that the UK economy would start growing
by the turn of the year.
In contrast many other developed economiessuch as Germany,
France, USA and Japanhave already emerged from recession,
although some of these countries have experienced a larger peak-to-trough
downturn than the UK.
The Chancellor acknowledged that the UK was "slower coming
out of recession than other countries" and attributed this
to the large size of the financial services sector in the UK relative
to the size of the UK economy.
8. There has been some concern amongst economists
that the nascent economic recovery is still not firmly established
and that recovery could be undermined if fiscal stimulus was to
be withdrawn prematurely from the economy, a point made both by
Martin Weale, Director of the National Institute of Economic and
Social Research (NIESR), and Karen Ward, Chief UK Economist for
or if credit conditions do not improve sufficiently we
discuss both these issues later in this Report.
9. The Government has justified its forecast for
growth to increase rapidly to 3.5% in 2011, arguing that strong
growth will result "as credit conditions continue to ease
and the continuing and lagged effects of the significant monetary
policy support, and the depreciation of sterling take hold".
The PBR also cited historical evidence from past recessions, stating
that it was "usual for GDP growth to pick up in a recovery
as spare capacity is brought back into productive use".
Using data from the recessions of the early 1980s and early 1990s,
it argued that "GDP growth was strong in the five years from
1982 and again in the five years from 1993, averaging 3.25% a
10. There has also been some scepticism around the
Treasury's prediction that the UK economy will grow so strongly
from 2011 onwards. For example, Roger Bootle, Managing Director
of Capital Economics, whilst acknowledging that the 2010 forecast
for 1.5% growth was "fairly modest and should be achieved",
expressed unease about the forecasts for 2011 onwards:
It would be wonderful if we could secure such
growth. But in the current state of the world economy, and working
with a weakened banking system and overloaded domestic balance
sheets, I think this is unlikely. I think that the economy will
struggle to achieve growth of 2%.
Martin Weale also expressed a "fear" that
growth would be slower than forecast in the years ahead .
11. The Treasury's forecast in the Pre-Budget
Report is for the economy to register growth of 1.5% in 2010 before
going on to achieve much stronger growth of 3.5% in 2011 and 2012.
There is, however, considerable scepticism among economists around
the Government's growth forecasts for 2011-12.
Rebalancing the economy
12. The 2009 Pre-Budget Report noted that private
sector demand contracted significantly in the second half of 2008
and the first half of 2009, but that during this period, government
spending had continued to contribute positively to growth, whilst
current accommodative macroeconomic policy was expected to boost
private sector demand through 2010, "helping smooth adjustment
towards a more balanced economy".
This macroeconomic adjustment was likely to entail increased investment
by firms, with investment forecast to contribute around 1 percentage
point to GDP growth in 2011 and 2012. Net trade was forecast to
contribute 0.5 percentage points to growth from 2010 onwards.
The Government envisages that in 2011 and 2012 private consumption
will play a smaller role as a component of growth in the UK economy,
with private consumption accounting for 2 percentage points of
the 3.5% estimate for growth in those two years. By way of contrast,
over the 2000-2007 period, private consumption accounted for 1.75
percentage points of the 2.75% growth recorded by the UK economy
over those years.
We discuss investment and net exports in greater detail below,
and household consumption and saving later in this chapter.
13. Our expert witnesses were divided over the Government's
forecast that investment would increase sharply over the next
few years and play a much stronger role in UK growth from 2011
onwards. Martin Weale told us that whilst this was possible, it
was not what he was expecting and that he did not believe there
would be any support for GDP growth from gross fixed investment
in 2011. Karen Ward
disagreed, telling us that it was reasonable that we could see
a "quite robust improvement in investment", especially
given that policy instruments such as the UK's low interest rate
would support increased investment activity.
14. Net trade is forecast to become a much more important
component of growth in the UK economy over the next few years.
Indeed, the PBR stated that "the rebalancing of external
and domestic sources of demand is likely to be driven by a combination
of export competitiveness and import substitution as UK consumers
respond to higher import prices and switch towards domestically
produced goods and services".
Mr Dave Ramsden, Chief Economic Advisor to HM Treasury, highlighted
the importance of net trade as a source of growth in the UK economy
over the next few years, confirming that net trade would contribute
0.5 percentage points to growth through the recovery, whilst from
2000-2007 it had made a negative 0.2 percentage points contribution
15. Ms Ward agreed that the rebalancing of the UK
economy would be "to some extent export led", but did
not feel that the recovery of the UK economy would rely purely
on export growth: she felt that the depreciation of sterling would
"encourage export growth", but would also encourage
"more import substitution".
Ms Ward added that she was "disappointed" by the way
net trade had performed over the last year. She noted that imports
had collapsed, but said that at the same time the car scrappage
scheme had encouraged "quite a large increase in imports,
considerably more than exports", which had led to a deterioration
in the trade deficit over the last few months.
Martin Weale also expressed concern that, despite the fall in
sterling since 2007, the economy was in labour cost terms actually
less competitive than it was when Britain was in the Exchange
Rate Mechanism in the early 1990s and that this was indicative
"of the sort of mountain that we [the UK] have to climb in
order to perform well in world markets".
16. Mr Ramsden defended the Government's forecasts
of the rebalancing of growth in the UK economy. He confirmed that
the Government was "expecting a recovery in business investment
from 2011 onwards" and said that the growth rates being forecast
for investment in 2011 and 2012 were not "unprecedented"
and followed the pattern of the 1990s. He argued that businesses
were currently delaying investment decisions because of continuing
uncertainty, but that "as the outlook for demand becomes
more sure you would expect businesses which want to invest to
get on and do that investment".
17. There was also some discussion of the potential
changes in the sectoral composition of economic activity as the
UK emerged from recession, with the focus on the future size of
the financial services sector in the UK economy. Dave Ramsden
told us that as a result of the downturn there would be a 5% permanent
output loss to the UK economy, which would lead to a fall in the
size of the financial services sector in the UK. Asked to quantify
the decline in the size of the financial services sector, Mr Ramsden
answered that Treasury calculations suggested that the size of
the financial services sector as a share of the UK economy would
fall from around 7% to 6% of GDP.
Consumption and the household
18. In the 2009 Pre-Budget Report, the Treasury explained
that its growth forecast for 2011 and 2012 would, in part, be
due to strong contributions from private consumption.
We explored how likely such a contribution would be. Ms Ward thought
that a recovery in private consumption seemed "reasonable",
given the recent fallback in consumption, and that monetary policy
was "probably set to remain pretty accommodative".
However, Mr Weale stated that "Treasury is more optimistic
than I am about consumer spending in 2011 and 2012".
Mr Ramsden though defended the Treasury's forecast:
Private consumption is by far the biggest component
of spending; it is 64% of nominal GDP, so it is going to make
a pretty significant contribution, but the growth rate in private
consumption stays below the growth rate in the economy.
Chart 1: Household saving ratio (percent)
Source: Office of National Statistics
19. As can be seen in Chart 1, prior to the banking
crisis, the household saving ratio had been in steady decline.
Mr Weale therefore questioned whether the Treasury's forecast
growth in private consumption would even be welcome, given the
need to rebalance the economy: "the [Treasury's] forecast
is relying on a very strong recovery of consumption and there
is a real question whether that is actually desirable given the
roots of the problems that we have been facing".
He noted the "historical context where the British economy
is the lowest saving of all the advanced economies and that is
a factor behind our long-term economic difficulties".
He warned that he was "not quite sure that the solution to
the problems of the household sector is to go on borrowing on
the sort of scale that happened in the period before the crisis".
The Governor too outlined the type of rebalancing he thought the
economy needed, telling us that "what we ought to expect
is a gradual recovery in business investment at some point and
a switch in demand away from consumption, both public and private,
towards net exports".
Mr Ramsden though explained that the Treasury projection was that
the household savings ratio would remain higher than it had been
in the recent past:
we think that the climate coming out of the recession
is going to be conducive to a big pick-up in the savings ratio
compared to what we have been used to earlier in this decade.
We think savings have already returned to their long-run average
and will go on rising in the early stages of the recovery before
settling at 6%.
Mr Ramsden later explained that the increase in the
household saving ratio in 2010 was due to a forecast in the growth
of real household disposable income by 3.25-3.75%, some of which
will go on consumption, but some will drive a "quite significant
increase in the savings ratio as people build up their balances".
When we asked why the Treasury did not think the household savings
rate would fall further, in line with the pre-crisis trend seen
in Chart 1, Mr Ramsden replied that:
we think it is going to settle at more like 6%
because in some sense, as part of this new rebalanced economy
that we are going to see, that is the appropriate level of savings
that households will want. As you know, some economists disagree
on this, and economists tend to disagree on these medium-term
issues, some think the savings are going to go up much higher
than that. We do not because of the outlook we see more generally
for household finances.
20. Growth in private consumption is expected
to provide a significant part of future GDP growth. The household
saving rate is also expected to rise further, and then stabilise
at a higher level than that seen in recent history. It should
be noted that the period before the current crisis was marked
by a steady decline in the household saving rate. An increase
in the household saving rate above its pre-crisis level will be
an essential part of the economic rebalancing.
Table 2: Claimant count unemployment:
NAO assumption and HMT projection (millions)
|UK seasonally adjusted
|NAO Assumption (Q4)
|HMT Projection (Q4)
Source: Ev 82
The growth in private consumption will depend on
the level of unemployment in the economy, both from rising unemployment's
impact on households' income, and on consumer confidence. In the
Pre-Budget Report, and in its evidence to us, the Treasury provided
projections of the rate of claimant count unemployment, as seen
in Table [xx]. Mr Weale noted that he took a "gloomier view"
than the Treasury's projections, but that he certainly had not
"been one of the people who [were] saying they expected unemployment
to go to three million".
Mr Ramsden however noted that "the interventions and the
general outlook for the labour market are much more supportive
of a more balanced recovery in terms of the labour market than
you saw after previous recessions where you saw very significant
shocks to the labour market".
21. In his Pre-Budget Report statement, the Chancellor
noted that this recession had been marked by significantly less
unemployment than might have been expected given the fall in the
GDP. He warned though
that "unemployment [was] still likely to rise".
We examined why fewer jobs may have been lost than expected. The
Governor in his evidence to us on the November Inflation Report
expressed his uncertainty over whether the fact that "unemployment
has not risen by as much as it might have done" was either
"encouraging in the sense that greater flexibility means
unemployment will not rise to the levels we might have feared"
or that there were "further rises in unemployment to come
next year as companies catch up with the need to reduce their
costs". Mr Weale
felt two factors might be at work in lowering the impact of the
fall in GDP on unemployment: "immigration and possible re-emigration"
as the Polish economy had not suffered a recession; and Government
policies "to facilitate transfers into new jobs that we did
not have in the 1980s", a point the Chancellor also made.
The Chancellor also suggested that our workforce was now more
flexible. Some, such
as the Governor, have suggested that a flexible workforce may
not be an explanation, given that the US also has a flexible workforce,
and yet has seen a greater deterioration in unemployment.
Ms Ward though suggested that "very large sectors in the
US are going to be structurally much more damaged than we have
seen in the UK and those are the auto sector and the construction
also felt in the UK that "Actual day-to-day businesscertainly
a number of the businesses that I have been speaking tohas
held up better than the GDP numbers would suggest, so they need
those staff to meet that level of demand".
These two factors, combined with the impact of continuing loose
monetary policy and firms' attempts to keep skilled staff, may
explain the better than expected unemployment data.
22. We were concerned that although fewer jobs had
been lost than might have been the case given the severity of
the downturn, this might mean that unemployment would not fall
as quickly in the recovery. Ms Ward was not concerned about this,
telling us that it was a case of "ensuring that there is
sufficient stimulus still in the economy such that we [are] seeing
new output growth to absorb the labour that is there".
She did not think that the lower than expected unemployment meant
that "we are going to suffer particularly in the recovery".
The Chancellor accepted that firms faced the choice of "whether
they start taking people on or whether they say let us see what
we can do". But he went on to state that "We do believe
that we will see a rise in employment".
23. The recession appears so far to have had substantially
less impact on the labour market than might have been feared.
There seem to be several reasons for this including the structure
of the economy, the flexibility of the labour market, some Government
measures and employers' attempts to retain skilled labour. However,
the Government must remain vigilant to the potential that there
may be further weakening in the labour market above that which
it has forecast, which would of course impact on the public finances.
There also needs to be careful analysis of the changes in the
labour market during the recession, to understand the movements
between full-time and part-time employment, especially differential
employment rates for men and women, as well as changes in rates
24. In our Report on Budget 2009, we noted that "Approximately
40% of the unemployed are likely to be young people aged under
25" and that we agreed "with Professor Blanchflower
[former member of the Monetary Policy Committee] that this necessitates
measures focused on assisting young people".
In his Pre-Budget 2009 statement, the Chancellor also concluded
that "we also need to invest in the skills of young people
to prevent a lost generation of youth unemployment".
Accordingly, he announced that:
Past recessions have had a very damaging impact
on young people, who should have been starting their working lives,
but instead were unemployed. Our package of support for the young
already includes a place for every 16 and 17-year-old in education
or training. I intend to provide funding so that this guarantee
will be available to school leavers again next September. In the
Budget, I went further and announced that every 18 to 24-year-old
would be guaranteed work or training after 12 months out of work.
I do not want them to have to wait that long, however, so I am
going to bring that forward. I have decided that, from next month,
no one under 24 needs to be unemployed for longer than six months
before being guaranteed work or training.
25. Our previous concern over youth unemployment
was well placed, as during our inquiry figures were released that
showed that the youth unemployment rate had reached 18.4%, the
highest rate since 1992.
We questioned the Chancellor over whether more support would be
needed to tackle the problem of youth unemployment. He noted that
"it has been a long-term problem", and that while "the
proportion of young people not in education and not in training
has been stabilised", he thought the numbers "remain[ed]
26. We remain concerned over the levels of youth
unemployment. While the story for the overall labour market has
been more positive than might have been initially hoped at the
start of recession, the young have, as we feared, been badly hit.
We note the Government's measures in this area, and will continue
to monitor their impact.
27. The outlook for the housing market is also an
important factor for consumer confidence. The Pre-Budget Report
noted that "House prices have shown signs of stabilising
in recent months and sooner than independent forecasters had expected".
The Chancellor reaffirmed that "House prices are stabilising",
but that there were "quite substantial regional variations".
Looking forward, Mr Ramsden explained that the Treasury's house
price forecast was:
the independent average forecast for house prices
next year, which is that they will stay broadly flat from where
they are this year, and then we assume house prices return to
their long-run average growth in the medium term, which is just
around 5%, so we expect that house prices will grow faster than
prices in the overall economy, but after being flat next year.
However, the Treasury's house price forecast implies
that house prices will stabilise at a historically high house
28. Mr Weale stated that the Treasury had "built
greater buoyancy into house prices than I anticipate".
But Ms Ward felt that the house price stabilisation was "another
] where monetary policy is working".
She thought that the stabilisation could be explained because
"With mortgage rates low, foreclosures are falling in the
UK rather than in the US where they are rising very strongly".
However, she noted that this was "quite different from saying
house prices are now set to rocket back off again", confirming
that "Affordability measures did not really correct, even
though house prices did fall quite substantially".
She ended however on a note of comfort, telling us that "the
whole household de-leveraging process which is underpinned by
the housing market will now happen in a much more orderly fashion
because monetary policy is doing its job and working very well".
29. Mr Ramsden agreed with Ms Ward's analysis, and
explained that "although transactions are picking up, there
is still quite limited supply, so it is the price that is adjusting,
but I do not think in either of those markets, in either equities
or housing, that you are seeing obvious over-valuation".
When pressed on the impact of a potential house price correction,
Mr Ramsden acknowledged the danger of:
real worry about this kind of potential for negative
feedback from the labour market on to the housing market and house
prices and then on to banks' balance sheets and then them having
to rein in lending, and this kind of negative feedback or a kind
of vicious circle almost that is a classic next stage in a credit
He noted however that this risk had been mitigated,
partially by government intervention, seen in lower unemployment
than expected and lower repossessions.
On affordability, the Chancellor noted that "there has to
be a happy balance between making sure that people can afford
the repayments and the mortgage is manageable and making things
so difficult that people are just excluded", and highlighted
Government schemes designed to help people purchase houses.
30. House prices appear to have stabilised, but
at an historically high price to earnings ratio. We are concerned
that such a position is potentially unsustainable, given that
monetary policy will eventually tighten. We recommend that the
Treasury undertake further work on the sensitivity of the housing
market to future employment and interest rate movements, and report
back at the time of the next Budget.
31. The housing market has also seen lower than expected
levels of repossessions. The Treasury noted that "total repossessions
for the first three quarters of 2009 were less than half the Council
of Mortgage Lenders (CML) original forecast for this year. The
CML has now revised down its forecast and is predicting 27,000
fewer repossessions than were expected a year ago."
As we have seen, Ms Ward suggested that a low repossession rate
had ensured the housing market had remained stable, while the
Chancellor noted the social benefits from fewer families losing
32. There has been Government intervention to prevent
repossessions, and the Pre-Budget Report 2009 announced that "The
standard interest rate used to calculate [Income Support for Mortgage
Interest] will be maintained at 6.08 per cent for a further six
Support for Mortgage Interest provides help to homeowners on certain
benefits towards their mortgage interest costs. The Chancellor
felt that "taken together the measures that we have introduced
is one of the reasons that the rate of repossessions was half
that of the rate of the 1990s".
The CAB thought the extension to Support for Mortgage Interest
was to be "greatly [
] welcomed", and explained
The people that we are seeing at the court desks,
over half of them are paying more than 6.08%, which is strange
given the general level of interest rates but not strange given
that you are talking about people on lower incomes, many of whom
are sub-prime led borrowers.
When asked whether he thought repossessions would
rise again, Mr David Harker, Chief Executive, Citizens Advice,
thought that repossessions were "going to continue at quite
a high level for some considerable time" but that they were
"not seeing any signs of it increasing".
This levelling off of the repossession rate was "partly to
the credit of some of the Government measures and forbearance
by the banks".
33. We expressed a concern to the Chancellor that
all that had happened was that repossessions had been delayed
by Government intervention, rather than stopped. He told us that
he was not complacent: "I am saying that you cannot assume
that because repossessions are half the rate they were 15 years
] we are out of the woods".
He felt that "In many ways, when house prices start to rise
it is just as important to make sure that we have the same range
of measures and in particular we can maintain the same level of
engagements with lenders to make sure that we do not get people
coming in to repossess where that is avoidable".
34. The Committee welcomes the fact that repossessions
have been far lower than expected. However, we recommend that
the Treasury proceeds cautiously over the timing and removal of
Government support in this area.
35. During our evidence sessions we raised concerns
over the availability of bank lending, especially to businesses.
The Pre-Budget Report 2009 noted that "the availability of
credit remains restricted".
But in his evidence to us on the November Inflation Report, Dr
Andrew Sentance, an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee,
told us that the fall in lending was from a combination of factors:
"There are constraints on the supply side but also uncertainty
about demand and clearly the unwillingness to make big investments
at the moment contributes to that".
Ms Ward felt there were mixed messages from the data: "some
of the business surveys suggest that corporates are still finding
it difficult to access credit but then if you look at other surveys
of output for example it does not look like small companies are
being held back".
However, for large corporates "it is quite clear we have
seen large amounts of corporate bond issuance which is being used
to repay bank debt".
She felt that there was a need though for better data to understand
what was happening, especially in relation to smaller and medium
sized firms. Mr Weale
noted that "credit is still rather tight" but that it
"may be that banks are not lending to [businesses] for very
Meanwhile, Professor Dow noted that quantitative easing had "placed
a lot of liquidity within the banks so there is a large capacity
to lend which is not being utilised at the moment, and that could
finance much more activity in asset markets or in the real economy",
but that the banks were held back by fears of "default risk".
36. Mr Ramsden though felt that limited lending growth
would not "be a drag on [the Treasury's] forecasts for the
recovery", but rather that it was "an obvious risk to
We discussed with him the comments by Mr Adam Posen, an external
member of the Monetary Policy Committee, that "if you do
not fix the banking system by the time your stimulus runs out,
then private demand will not pick up when the stimulus runs out".
Mr Ramsden thought that the Treasury had acknowledged "there
is a risk, so, as you say, in 2011, which is when, [
contribution of the public sector becomes negative, it is very
important that the private sector should be able to support the
recovery". Mr Ramsden stated it was very important that the
remain very vigilant to the supply of lending,
that we keep a very close eye on, and monitor very carefully,
the banks with whom we have lending commitments to ensure that
they deliver on these and that we keep a close eye on the funding
of the whole banking sector to make sure that they are not constrained
in their funding which might constrain them to lend to creditworthy
Mr Peter Schofield, Director, Enterprise and Growth
Unit, HM Treasury, again highlighted the mixed messages from the
data, noting a recent survey by the British Chambers of Commerce
which suggested that "something like 64% of respondents who
were asked, 'What is the main obstacle to growth?' said that
it was lack of demand and only about one in six or 18% said it
was a lack of credit".
The Chancellor also emphasised the data problems, noting "the
surveys which the various business organisations have produced
which show that the picture is mixed in relation to the provision
However, he affirmed that "The big priority for this next
calendar year must be to make sure that the credit is there, but
the position at the moment is complicated".
He thought that "as the economy starts to recover and we
see growth through next year, it is then critical that there is
sufficient credit available within the system, particularly for
the SME sector, which is more heavily dependent on bank lending
than the larger sector".
37. The picture on bank lending remains uncertain,
to say the least. While we do not want to return to the times
of easy credit, the Government must remain aware of the risk that
lending will not support renewed private sector growth as the
public sector retrenches. The Treasury have assured us that they
remain vigilant in this area, and we will continue to monitor
4 HM Treasury, Budget 2008, p 157, Table B3 Back
HM Treasury, Pre-Budget Report 2008, November 2008, p 166,
Table A3 Back
HM Treasury, Budget 2009, p 199, Table B3 Back
HM Treasury, Pre-Budget Report 2009, p 147, Table
HM Treasury, Forecast for the UK economy: a comparison of independent
forecasts, December 2009 Back
ONS, GDP Growth, 22 December 2009 Back
HC deb, 9 December 2009, col 359 Back
HM Treasury, Pocket Databank, 15 December 2009, p 24 Back
Q 244 Back
Q 30, HSBC Global Research, Golden Brown?, by Karen Ward
and Andre de Silva, 10 December 2009 Back
HM Treasury, Pre-Budget Report 2009, p 146, para A.47 Back
Ibid., p 147, para A.48 Back
'What planet does the Chancellor live on with talk of bingo and
boilers', by Roger Bootle, The Daily Telegraph, 10 December 2009 Back
Q 29 Back
HM Treasury, Pre-Budget Report 2009, p 150, para A.56 Back
Ibid., p 150, Table A4 Back
Q 6 Back
Q 8 Back
HM Treasury, Pre-Budget Report 2009, December 2009, p 154,
Q 131 Back
Q 9 Back
Q 11 Back
Q 126 Back
Qq 130, 136 Back
Pre-Budget Report 2009, p 150, Table A4 Back
Q 9 Back
Q 40 Back
Q 129 Back
Q 4 Back
Q 5 Back
Q 18 Back
Oral evidence taken before the Treasury Committee on 24 November
2009, HC (2009-10) 34, Q 35 Back
Q 131 Back
Q 355 Back
Q 383 Back
Q 24 Back
Q 131 Back
HC Deb (9 December 2009) Col 361 Back
HC Deb (9 December 2009) Col 360 Back
Oral evidence taken before the Treasury Committee on 24 November
2009, HC (2009-10) 34, Q 68 Back
Qq 21, 248 Back
Q 248 Back
Oral evidence taken before the Treasury Committee on 24 November
2009, HC (2009-10) 34, Q 68 Back
Q 22 Back
Q 23 Back
Q 249 Back
Treasury Committee, Budget 2009, Eighth Report of Session
2008-09, HC 438, para 27 Back
HC Deb (9 December 2009) col 359 Back
HC Deb (9 December 2009) col 361 Back
Office for National Statistics, Statistical Bulletin: Labour market,
16 December 2009, p 17 Back
Q 256 Back
Pre-Budget Report 2009, p 150, para A.67 Back
Q 252 Back
Q 148 Back
HM Treasury, 2009 Pre-Budget Report: the economy and public
finances - supplementary material, 9 December 2009, p 10,
Chart 1.8 Back
Q 40 Back
Q 69 Back
Q 143 Back
Q 254 Back
Pre-Budget Report 2009, p
86, para 5.53 ` Back
HC Deb (9 December 2009) col 360 Back
Pre-Budget Report 2009, p 86, para 5.54 Back
Q 252 Back
Q 91 Back
Q 92 Back
Q 253 Back
Q 253 Back
Pre-Budget Report 2009, p 141, para A.29 Back
Oral evidence taken before the Treasury Committee on 24 November
2009, HC (2009-10) 34, Q 74 Back
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Q 139 Back
Q 142 Back
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