Pre-Budget Report 2009 - Treasury Contents

2  Macroeconomy

Growth forecasts

4. At the time of Budget 2008, the Treasury forecast that GDP growth would be 1.75% to 2.25% in 2008, 2.25% to 2.75% in 2009 and 2.5% to 3% in 2010.[4] This forecast was revised downwards in the 2008 Pre-Budget Report later that year, in which the Treasury forecast 0.75% GDP growth in 2008, a range of -1.25% to -0.75% in 2009 and 1.5% to 2% in 2010, with growth reaching 2.75% to 3.25% in 2011.[5]

5. Budget 2009 saw another significant downward revision to the Treasury's growth forecasts. The Treasury now forecast a far sharper contraction in the UK economy of 3.5% in 2009, compared to their forecast of -1.25% to -0.75%—approximately five months earlier—at the time of the 2008 Pre-Budget Report. Budget 2009 also forecast the resumption of economic growth of 1.25% in 2010 with growth then accelerating to 3.5% in 2011.[6]

Table 1: HM Treasury, economic growth forecasts
2008 2009 20102011 2012
2008 Budget1.75 to 2.25% 2.25 to 2.75%2.5 to 3% --
2008 PBR0.75% -1.25 to -0.75%1.5 to 2% 2.75 to 3.25%-
2009 Budget0.75% -3.25 to - 3.75%1% to 1.5% 3.25% to 3.75%-
2009 PBR0.5% -4.75%1% to 1.5% 3.25% to 3.75%3.25% to 3.75%

Source: HM Treasury

6. The continuing uncertainty about the outlook for the UK economy was demonstrated in the 2009 Pre-Budget Report, with the Government yet again downgrading its growth forecasts. The Treasury now forecasts that the UK economy will contract by 4.75% in 2009 —1.25 percentage points more than its forecast eight months earlier in Budget 2009. For later years, the 2009 Pre-Budget Report forecast a return to growth of 1.25% in 2010, with growth then increasing sharply to 3.5% for the two subsequent years.[7] Independent forecasts of growth in the UK economy—published by HM Treasury alongside the 2009 Pre-Budget Report—broadly concur with the Government's revised growth projections for 2009 and 2010. The average of new forecasts was also for -4.5% growth in 2009, with a range of -4.1% to -4.7%. The average of new forecasts for 2010 was 1.4%, but with greater uncertainty than in 2009, represented by a far wider divergence in forecasts which ranged from -0.5% to 2%.[8]

7. The UK economy remains in recession—economic growth was calculated at -0.2% for the 3rd quarter of 2009[9]—although in his statement to the House on the Pre-Budget Report the Chancellor said that he was confident that the UK economy would start growing by the turn of the year.[10] In contrast many other developed economies—such as Germany, France, USA and Japan—have already emerged from recession, although some of these countries have experienced a larger peak-to-trough downturn than the UK.[11] The Chancellor acknowledged that the UK was "slower coming out of recession than other countries" and attributed this to the large size of the financial services sector in the UK relative to the size of the UK economy.[12]

8. There has been some concern amongst economists that the nascent economic recovery is still not firmly established and that recovery could be undermined if fiscal stimulus was to be withdrawn prematurely from the economy, a point made both by Martin Weale, Director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), and Karen Ward, Chief UK Economist for HSBC, [13] or if credit conditions do not improve sufficiently —we discuss both these issues later in this Report.

9. The Government has justified its forecast for growth to increase rapidly to 3.5% in 2011, arguing that strong growth will result "as credit conditions continue to ease and the continuing and lagged effects of the significant monetary policy support, and the depreciation of sterling take hold".[14] The PBR also cited historical evidence from past recessions, stating that it was "usual for GDP growth to pick up in a recovery as spare capacity is brought back into productive use". Using data from the recessions of the early 1980s and early 1990s, it argued that "GDP growth was strong in the five years from 1982 and again in the five years from 1993, averaging 3.25% a year".[15]

10. There has also been some scepticism around the Treasury's prediction that the UK economy will grow so strongly from 2011 onwards. For example, Roger Bootle, Managing Director of Capital Economics, whilst acknowledging that the 2010 forecast for 1.5% growth was "fairly modest and should be achieved", expressed unease about the forecasts for 2011 onwards:

    It would be wonderful if we could secure such growth. But in the current state of the world economy, and working with a weakened banking system and overloaded domestic balance sheets, I think this is unlikely. I think that the economy will struggle to achieve growth of 2%.[16]

Martin Weale also expressed a "fear" that growth would be slower than forecast in the years ahead [17].

11. The Treasury's forecast in the Pre-Budget Report is for the economy to register growth of 1.5% in 2010 before going on to achieve much stronger growth of 3.5% in 2011 and 2012. There is, however, considerable scepticism among economists around the Government's growth forecasts for 2011-12.

Rebalancing the economy

12. The 2009 Pre-Budget Report noted that private sector demand contracted significantly in the second half of 2008 and the first half of 2009, but that during this period, government spending had continued to contribute positively to growth, whilst current accommodative macroeconomic policy was expected to boost private sector demand through 2010, "helping smooth adjustment towards a more balanced economy".[18] This macroeconomic adjustment was likely to entail increased investment by firms, with investment forecast to contribute around 1 percentage point to GDP growth in 2011 and 2012. Net trade was forecast to contribute 0.5 percentage points to growth from 2010 onwards. The Government envisages that in 2011 and 2012 private consumption will play a smaller role as a component of growth in the UK economy, with private consumption accounting for 2 percentage points of the 3.5% estimate for growth in those two years. By way of contrast, over the 2000-2007 period, private consumption accounted for 1.75 percentage points of the 2.75% growth recorded by the UK economy over those years.[19] We discuss investment and net exports in greater detail below, and household consumption and saving later in this chapter.

13. Our expert witnesses were divided over the Government's forecast that investment would increase sharply over the next few years and play a much stronger role in UK growth from 2011 onwards. Martin Weale told us that whilst this was possible, it was not what he was expecting and that he did not believe there would be any support for GDP growth from gross fixed investment in 2011.[20] Karen Ward disagreed, telling us that it was reasonable that we could see a "quite robust improvement in investment", especially given that policy instruments such as the UK's low interest rate would support increased investment activity.[21]

14. Net trade is forecast to become a much more important component of growth in the UK economy over the next few years. Indeed, the PBR stated that "the rebalancing of external and domestic sources of demand is likely to be driven by a combination of export competitiveness and import substitution as UK consumers respond to higher import prices and switch towards domestically produced goods and services".[22] Mr Dave Ramsden, Chief Economic Advisor to HM Treasury, highlighted the importance of net trade as a source of growth in the UK economy over the next few years, confirming that net trade would contribute 0.5 percentage points to growth through the recovery, whilst from 2000-2007 it had made a negative 0.2 percentage points contribution to growth.[23]

15. Ms Ward agreed that the rebalancing of the UK economy would be "to some extent export led", but did not feel that the recovery of the UK economy would rely purely on export growth: she felt that the depreciation of sterling would "encourage export growth", but would also encourage "more import substitution".[24] Ms Ward added that she was "disappointed" by the way net trade had performed over the last year. She noted that imports had collapsed, but said that at the same time the car scrappage scheme had encouraged "quite a large increase in imports, considerably more than exports", which had led to a deterioration in the trade deficit over the last few months.[25] Martin Weale also expressed concern that, despite the fall in sterling since 2007, the economy was in labour cost terms actually less competitive than it was when Britain was in the Exchange Rate Mechanism in the early 1990s and that this was indicative "of the sort of mountain that we [the UK] have to climb in order to perform well in world markets".[26]

16. Mr Ramsden defended the Government's forecasts of the rebalancing of growth in the UK economy. He confirmed that the Government was "expecting a recovery in business investment from 2011 onwards" and said that the growth rates being forecast for investment in 2011 and 2012 were not "unprecedented" and followed the pattern of the 1990s. He argued that businesses were currently delaying investment decisions because of continuing uncertainty, but that "as the outlook for demand becomes more sure you would expect businesses which want to invest to get on and do that investment".[27]

17. There was also some discussion of the potential changes in the sectoral composition of economic activity as the UK emerged from recession, with the focus on the future size of the financial services sector in the UK economy. Dave Ramsden told us that as a result of the downturn there would be a 5% permanent output loss to the UK economy, which would lead to a fall in the size of the financial services sector in the UK. Asked to quantify the decline in the size of the financial services sector, Mr Ramsden answered that Treasury calculations suggested that the size of the financial services sector as a share of the UK economy would fall from around 7% to 6% of GDP.[28]

Consumption and the household saving ratio

18. In the 2009 Pre-Budget Report, the Treasury explained that its growth forecast for 2011 and 2012 would, in part, be due to strong contributions from private consumption.[29] We explored how likely such a contribution would be. Ms Ward thought that a recovery in private consumption seemed "reasonable", given the recent fallback in consumption, and that monetary policy was "probably set to remain pretty accommodative".[30] However, Mr Weale stated that "Treasury is more optimistic than I am about consumer spending in 2011 and 2012".[31] Mr Ramsden though defended the Treasury's forecast:

    Private consumption is by far the biggest component of spending; it is 64% of nominal GDP, so it is going to make a pretty significant contribution, but the growth rate in private consumption stays below the growth rate in the economy.[32]

Chart 1: Household saving ratio (percent)

Source: Office of National Statistics

19. As can be seen in Chart 1, prior to the banking crisis, the household saving ratio had been in steady decline. Mr Weale therefore questioned whether the Treasury's forecast growth in private consumption would even be welcome, given the need to rebalance the economy: "the [Treasury's] forecast is relying on a very strong recovery of consumption and there is a real question whether that is actually desirable given the roots of the problems that we have been facing".[33] He noted the "historical context where the British economy is the lowest saving of all the advanced economies and that is a factor behind our long-term economic difficulties".[34] He warned that he was "not quite sure that the solution to the problems of the household sector is to go on borrowing on the sort of scale that happened in the period before the crisis".[35] The Governor too outlined the type of rebalancing he thought the economy needed, telling us that "what we ought to expect is a gradual recovery in business investment at some point and a switch in demand away from consumption, both public and private, towards net exports".[36] Mr Ramsden though explained that the Treasury projection was that the household savings ratio would remain higher than it had been in the recent past:

    we think that the climate coming out of the recession is going to be conducive to a big pick-up in the savings ratio compared to what we have been used to earlier in this decade. We think savings have already returned to their long-run average and will go on rising in the early stages of the recovery before settling at 6%.[37]

Mr Ramsden later explained that the increase in the household saving ratio in 2010 was due to a forecast in the growth of real household disposable income by 3.25-3.75%, some of which will go on consumption, but some will drive a "quite significant increase in the savings ratio as people build up their balances".[38] When we asked why the Treasury did not think the household savings rate would fall further, in line with the pre-crisis trend seen in Chart 1, Mr Ramsden replied that:

    we think it is going to settle at more like 6% because in some sense, as part of this new rebalanced economy that we are going to see, that is the appropriate level of savings that households will want. As you know, some economists disagree on this, and economists tend to disagree on these medium-term issues, some think the savings are going to go up much higher than that. We do not because of the outlook we see more generally for household finances.[39]

20. Growth in private consumption is expected to provide a significant part of future GDP growth. The household saving rate is also expected to rise further, and then stabilise at a higher level than that seen in recent history. It should be noted that the period before the current crisis was marked by a steady decline in the household saving rate. An increase in the household saving rate above its pre-crisis level will be an essential part of the economic rebalancing.


Table 2: Claimant count unemployment: NAO assumption and HMT projection (millions)
UK seasonally adjusted 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
NAO Assumption (Q4) 1.09 1.72 1.91 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.94
HMT Projection (Q4) 1.09

Source: Ev 82

The growth in private consumption will depend on the level of unemployment in the economy, both from rising unemployment's impact on households' income, and on consumer confidence. In the Pre-Budget Report, and in its evidence to us, the Treasury provided projections of the rate of claimant count unemployment, as seen in Table [xx]. Mr Weale noted that he took a "gloomier view" than the Treasury's projections, but that he certainly had not "been one of the people who [were] saying they expected unemployment to go to three million".[40] Mr Ramsden however noted that "the interventions and the general outlook for the labour market are much more supportive of a more balanced recovery in terms of the labour market than you saw after previous recessions where you saw very significant shocks to the labour market".[41]

21. In his Pre-Budget Report statement, the Chancellor noted that this recession had been marked by significantly less unemployment than might have been expected given the fall in the GDP.[42] He warned though that "unemployment [was] still likely to rise".[43] We examined why fewer jobs may have been lost than expected. The Governor in his evidence to us on the November Inflation Report expressed his uncertainty over whether the fact that "unemployment has not risen by as much as it might have done" was either "encouraging in the sense that greater flexibility means unemployment will not rise to the levels we might have feared" or that there were "further rises in unemployment to come next year as companies catch up with the need to reduce their costs".[44] Mr Weale felt two factors might be at work in lowering the impact of the fall in GDP on unemployment: "immigration and possible re-emigration" as the Polish economy had not suffered a recession; and Government policies "to facilitate transfers into new jobs that we did not have in the 1980s", a point the Chancellor also made.[45] The Chancellor also suggested that our workforce was now more flexible.[46] Some, such as the Governor, have suggested that a flexible workforce may not be an explanation, given that the US also has a flexible workforce, and yet has seen a greater deterioration in unemployment.[47] Ms Ward though suggested that "very large sectors in the US are going to be structurally much more damaged than we have seen in the UK and those are the auto sector and the construction sector".[48] She also felt in the UK that "Actual day-to-day business—certainly a number of the businesses that I have been speaking to—has held up better than the GDP numbers would suggest, so they need those staff to meet that level of demand".[49] These two factors, combined with the impact of continuing loose monetary policy and firms' attempts to keep skilled staff, may explain the better than expected unemployment data.[50]

22. We were concerned that although fewer jobs had been lost than might have been the case given the severity of the downturn, this might mean that unemployment would not fall as quickly in the recovery. Ms Ward was not concerned about this, telling us that it was a case of "ensuring that there is sufficient stimulus still in the economy such that we [are] seeing new output growth to absorb the labour that is there".[51] She did not think that the lower than expected unemployment meant that "we are going to suffer particularly in the recovery".[52] The Chancellor accepted that firms faced the choice of "whether they start taking people on or whether they say let us see what we can do". But he went on to state that "We do believe that we will see a rise in employment".[53]

23. The recession appears so far to have had substantially less impact on the labour market than might have been feared. There seem to be several reasons for this including the structure of the economy, the flexibility of the labour market, some Government measures and employers' attempts to retain skilled labour. However, the Government must remain vigilant to the potential that there may be further weakening in the labour market above that which it has forecast, which would of course impact on the public finances. There also needs to be careful analysis of the changes in the labour market during the recession, to understand the movements between full-time and part-time employment, especially differential employment rates for men and women, as well as changes in rates of pay.


24. In our Report on Budget 2009, we noted that "Approximately 40% of the unemployed are likely to be young people aged under 25" and that we agreed "with Professor Blanchflower [former member of the Monetary Policy Committee] that this necessitates measures focused on assisting young people".[54] In his Pre-Budget 2009 statement, the Chancellor also concluded that "we also need to invest in the skills of young people to prevent a lost generation of youth unemployment".[55] Accordingly, he announced that:

    Past recessions have had a very damaging impact on young people, who should have been starting their working lives, but instead were unemployed. Our package of support for the young already includes a place for every 16 and 17-year-old in education or training. I intend to provide funding so that this guarantee will be available to school leavers again next September. In the Budget, I went further and announced that every 18 to 24-year-old would be guaranteed work or training after 12 months out of work. I do not want them to have to wait that long, however, so I am going to bring that forward. I have decided that, from next month, no one under 24 needs to be unemployed for longer than six months before being guaranteed work or training.[56]

25. Our previous concern over youth unemployment was well placed, as during our inquiry figures were released that showed that the youth unemployment rate had reached 18.4%, the highest rate since 1992.[57] We questioned the Chancellor over whether more support would be needed to tackle the problem of youth unemployment. He noted that "it has been a long-term problem", and that while "the proportion of young people not in education and not in training has been stabilised", he thought the numbers "remain[ed] of concern".[58]

26. We remain concerned over the levels of youth unemployment. While the story for the overall labour market has been more positive than might have been initially hoped at the start of recession, the young have, as we feared, been badly hit. We note the Government's measures in this area, and will continue to monitor their impact.

Housing market

27. The outlook for the housing market is also an important factor for consumer confidence. The Pre-Budget Report noted that "House prices have shown signs of stabilising in recent months and sooner than independent forecasters had expected".[59] The Chancellor reaffirmed that "House prices are stabilising", but that there were "quite substantial regional variations".[60] Looking forward, Mr Ramsden explained that the Treasury's house price forecast was:

    the independent average forecast for house prices next year, which is that they will stay broadly flat from where they are this year, and then we assume house prices return to their long-run average growth in the medium term, which is just around 5%, so we expect that house prices will grow faster than prices in the overall economy, but after being flat next year.[61]

However, the Treasury's house price forecast implies that house prices will stabilise at a historically high house price-earnings ratio.[62]

28. Mr Weale stated that the Treasury had "built greater buoyancy into house prices than I anticipate".[63] But Ms Ward felt that the house price stabilisation was "another example […] where monetary policy is working".[64] She thought that the stabilisation could be explained because "With mortgage rates low, foreclosures are falling in the UK rather than in the US where they are rising very strongly".[65] However, she noted that this was "quite different from saying house prices are now set to rocket back off again", confirming that "Affordability measures did not really correct, even though house prices did fall quite substantially".[66] She ended however on a note of comfort, telling us that "the whole household de-leveraging process which is underpinned by the housing market will now happen in a much more orderly fashion because monetary policy is doing its job and working very well".[67]

29. Mr Ramsden agreed with Ms Ward's analysis, and explained that "although transactions are picking up, there is still quite limited supply, so it is the price that is adjusting, but I do not think in either of those markets, in either equities or housing, that you are seeing obvious over-valuation".[68] When pressed on the impact of a potential house price correction, Mr Ramsden acknowledged the danger of:

    real worry about this kind of potential for negative feedback from the labour market on to the housing market and house prices and then on to banks' balance sheets and then them having to rein in lending, and this kind of negative feedback or a kind of vicious circle almost that is a classic next stage in a credit crunch.[69]

He noted however that this risk had been mitigated, partially by government intervention, seen in lower unemployment than expected and lower repossessions.[70] On affordability, the Chancellor noted that "there has to be a happy balance between making sure that people can afford the repayments and the mortgage is manageable and making things so difficult that people are just excluded", and highlighted Government schemes designed to help people purchase houses.[71]

30. House prices appear to have stabilised, but at an historically high price to earnings ratio. We are concerned that such a position is potentially unsustainable, given that monetary policy will eventually tighten. We recommend that the Treasury undertake further work on the sensitivity of the housing market to future employment and interest rate movements, and report back at the time of the next Budget.

31. The housing market has also seen lower than expected levels of repossessions. The Treasury noted that "total repossessions for the first three quarters of 2009 were less than half the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) original forecast for this year. The CML has now revised down its forecast and is predicting 27,000 fewer repossessions than were expected a year ago."[72] As we have seen, Ms Ward suggested that a low repossession rate had ensured the housing market had remained stable, while the Chancellor noted the social benefits from fewer families losing their homes.[73]

32. There has been Government intervention to prevent repossessions, and the Pre-Budget Report 2009 announced that "The standard interest rate used to calculate [Income Support for Mortgage Interest] will be maintained at 6.08 per cent for a further six months".[74] Income Support for Mortgage Interest provides help to homeowners on certain benefits towards their mortgage interest costs. The Chancellor felt that "taken together the measures that we have introduced is one of the reasons that the rate of repossessions was half that of the rate of the 1990s".[75] The CAB thought the extension to Support for Mortgage Interest was to be "greatly […] welcomed", and explained that:

    The people that we are seeing at the court desks, over half of them are paying more than 6.08%, which is strange given the general level of interest rates but not strange given that you are talking about people on lower incomes, many of whom are sub-prime led borrowers.[76]

When asked whether he thought repossessions would rise again, Mr David Harker, Chief Executive, Citizens Advice, thought that repossessions were "going to continue at quite a high level for some considerable time" but that they were "not seeing any signs of it increasing".[77] This levelling off of the repossession rate was "partly to the credit of some of the Government measures and forbearance by the banks".[78]

33. We expressed a concern to the Chancellor that all that had happened was that repossessions had been delayed by Government intervention, rather than stopped. He told us that he was not complacent: "I am saying that you cannot assume that because repossessions are half the rate they were 15 years ago […] we are out of the woods".[79] He felt that "In many ways, when house prices start to rise it is just as important to make sure that we have the same range of measures and in particular we can maintain the same level of engagements with lenders to make sure that we do not get people coming in to repossess where that is avoidable".[80]

34. The Committee welcomes the fact that repossessions have been far lower than expected. However, we recommend that the Treasury proceeds cautiously over the timing and removal of Government support in this area.

Bank lending

35. During our evidence sessions we raised concerns over the availability of bank lending, especially to businesses. The Pre-Budget Report 2009 noted that "the availability of credit remains restricted".[81] But in his evidence to us on the November Inflation Report, Dr Andrew Sentance, an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee, told us that the fall in lending was from a combination of factors: "There are constraints on the supply side but also uncertainty about demand and clearly the unwillingness to make big investments at the moment contributes to that".[82] Ms Ward felt there were mixed messages from the data: "some of the business surveys suggest that corporates are still finding it difficult to access credit but then if you look at other surveys of output for example it does not look like small companies are being held back".[83] However, for large corporates "it is quite clear we have seen large amounts of corporate bond issuance which is being used to repay bank debt".[84] She felt that there was a need though for better data to understand what was happening, especially in relation to smaller and medium sized firms.[85] Mr Weale noted that "credit is still rather tight" but that it "may be that banks are not lending to [businesses] for very good reason".[86] Meanwhile, Professor Dow noted that quantitative easing had "placed a lot of liquidity within the banks so there is a large capacity to lend which is not being utilised at the moment, and that could finance much more activity in asset markets or in the real economy", but that the banks were held back by fears of "default risk".[87]

36. Mr Ramsden though felt that limited lending growth would not "be a drag on [the Treasury's] forecasts for the recovery", but rather that it was "an obvious risk to the forecasts".[88] We discussed with him the comments by Mr Adam Posen, an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee, that "if you do not fix the banking system by the time your stimulus runs out, then private demand will not pick up when the stimulus runs out".[89] Mr Ramsden thought that the Treasury had acknowledged "there is a risk, so, as you say, in 2011, which is when, […] the contribution of the public sector becomes negative, it is very important that the private sector should be able to support the recovery". Mr Ramsden stated it was very important that the Treasury:

    remain very vigilant to the supply of lending, that we keep a very close eye on, and monitor very carefully, the banks with whom we have lending commitments to ensure that they deliver on these and that we keep a close eye on the funding of the whole banking sector to make sure that they are not constrained in their funding which might constrain them to lend to creditworthy businesses.[90]

Mr Peter Schofield, Director, Enterprise and Growth Unit, HM Treasury, again highlighted the mixed messages from the data, noting a recent survey by the British Chambers of Commerce which suggested that "something like 64% of respondents who were asked, 'What is the main obstacle to growth?' said that it was lack of demand and only about one in six or 18% said it was a lack of credit".[91] The Chancellor also emphasised the data problems, noting "the surveys which the various business organisations have produced which show that the picture is mixed in relation to the provision of credit".[92] However, he affirmed that "The big priority for this next calendar year must be to make sure that the credit is there, but the position at the moment is complicated".[93] He thought that "as the economy starts to recover and we see growth through next year, it is then critical that there is sufficient credit available within the system, particularly for the SME sector, which is more heavily dependent on bank lending than the larger sector".[94]

37. The picture on bank lending remains uncertain, to say the least. While we do not want to return to the times of easy credit, the Government must remain aware of the risk that lending will not support renewed private sector growth as the public sector retrenches. The Treasury have assured us that they remain vigilant in this area, and we will continue to monitor their work.

4   HM Treasury, Budget 2008, p 157, Table B3 Back

5   HM Treasury, Pre-Budget Report 2008, November 2008, p 166, Table A3  Back

6   HM Treasury, Budget 2009, p 199, Table B3  Back

7   HM Treasury, Pre-Budget Report 2009, p 147, Table A3 Back

8   HM Treasury, Forecast for the UK economy: a comparison of independent forecasts, December 2009 Back

9   ONS, GDP Growth, 22 December 2009 Back

10   HC deb, 9 December 2009, col 359 Back

11   HM Treasury, Pocket Databank, 15 December 2009, p 24 Back

12   Q 244 Back

13   Q 30, HSBC Global Research, Golden Brown?, by Karen Ward and Andre de Silva, 10 December 2009 Back

14   HM Treasury, Pre-Budget Report 2009, p 146, para A.47 Back

15   Ibid., p 147, para A.48 Back

16   'What planet does the Chancellor live on with talk of bingo and boilers', by Roger Bootle, The Daily Telegraph, 10 December 2009 Back

17   Q 29 Back

18   HM Treasury, Pre-Budget Report 2009, p 150, para A.56 Back

19   Ibid., p 150, Table A4 Back

20   Q 6 Back

21   Q 8 Back

22   HM Treasury, Pre-Budget Report 2009, December 2009, p 154, A.78 Back

23   Q 131 Back

24   Q 9 Back

25   Q 11 Back

26   Ibid. Back

27   Q 126 Back

28   Qq 130, 136 Back

29   Pre-Budget Report 2009, p 150, Table A4  Back

30   Q 9 Back

31   Q 40 Back

32   Q 129 Back

33   Q 4 Back

34   Q 5 Back

35   Q 18 Back

36   Oral evidence taken before the Treasury Committee on 24 November 2009, HC (2009-10) 34, Q 35 Back

37   Q 131 Back

38   Q 355 Back

39   Q 383 Back

40   Q 24 Back

41   Q 131 Back

42   HC Deb (9 December 2009) Col 361 Back

43   HC Deb (9 December 2009) Col 360 Back

44   Oral evidence taken before the Treasury Committee on 24 November 2009, HC (2009-10) 34, Q 68 Back

45   Qq 21, 248 Back

46   Q 248 Back

47   Oral evidence taken before the Treasury Committee on 24 November 2009, HC (2009-10) 34, Q 68  Back

48   Q 22 Back

49   Ibid. Back

50   Ibid. Back

51   Q 23 Back

52   Ibid. Back

53   Q 249 Back

54   Treasury Committee, Budget 2009, Eighth Report of Session 2008-09, HC 438, para 27 Back

55   HC Deb (9 December 2009) col 359 Back

56   HC Deb (9 December 2009) col 361 Back

57   Office for National Statistics, Statistical Bulletin: Labour market, 16 December 2009, p 17 Back

58   Q 256 Back

59   Pre-Budget Report 2009, p 150, para A.67 Back

60   Q 252 Back

61   Q 148 Back

62   HM Treasury, 2009 Pre-Budget Report: the economy and public finances - supplementary material, 9 December 2009, p 10, Chart 1.8  Back

63   Q 40 Back

64   Q 69 Back

65   Ibid. Back

66   Ibid. Back

67   Ibid. Back

68   Q 143 Back

69   Ibid. Back

70   Ibid. Back

71   Q 254 Back

72   Pre-Budget Report 2009, p 86, para 5.53 ` Back

73   HC Deb (9 December 2009) col 360  Back

74   Pre-Budget Report 2009, p 86, para 5.54 Back

75   Q 252 Back

76   Q 91 Back

77   Q 92 Back

78   Ibid. Back

79   Q 253 Back

80   Q 253 Back

81   Pre-Budget Report 2009, p 141, para A.29 Back

82   Oral evidence taken before the Treasury Committee on 24 November 2009, HC (2009-10) 34, Q 74 Back

83   Q 14 Back

84   Ibid. Back

85   Q 14, 15 Back

86   Q 17 Back

87   Qq 40-41 Back

88   Q 139 Back

89   Treasury Committee, Twelfth Report of Session 2008-09, Appointment of Dr Adam Posen to the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, HC 764-II, Ev 15 Back

90   Q 139 Back

91   Q 142 Back

92   Q 244 Back

93   Ibid. Back

94   Ibid. Back

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