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Mr Duncan Smith: I agree with Boris Johnson. What he said is that there will be no "Kosovo-style cleansing" of London. Quite right. He was responding to the scare
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stories and the scaremongering of all those on the Opposition Benches, because that is exactly the phraseology that they were using.

Emily Thornberry: Will the right hon. Gentleman help us now? Which Front Bencher has been scaring my constituents by saying that the policy will be worse than the highland clearances? Which shameful Front Bencher has been telling the press that?

Mr Duncan Smith: I think that that is the case on the Opposition side. The reality is that they have been scaring the public, and they know it. I detect just a little dog whistle blowing from those on the Labour Benches, freezing and frightening everybody out there in the socially rented sector.

Toby Perkins (Chesterfield) (Lab) rose -

Mr Duncan Smith: I want to deal with some of the allegations. Opposition Members made the allegations, so let us get the record straight. The first was that London will somehow end up like Paris-socially cleansed so that people live only on the outer circle.

Mr Lammy: It is true.

Mr Duncan Smith: Oh, it is true? Okay. Let me remind the House about one simple point. The proposed changes to the local housing allowance concern the private rented sector. London has nearly 800,000 social homes-by the way, the Labour Government built far too few in their time-and the changes do not affect them. London has social housing embedded in its heart, and that will not change. So Labour Members must have known that they were scaring people with a complete pack of lies and nonsense. [ Interruption. ]

Mr Speaker: Order. I apologise to the Secretary of State. I accept that there are strong views on this matter, and that the atmosphere is highly charged, but there are many subscribers to this debate, and for the benefit of Back-Bench Members, the Chair would like to accommodate as many as possible. The more noise there is, the greater the delay, and the more difficult it will be to accommodate them. Perhaps we can calm down a little.

Mr Duncan Smith: I am grateful to you, Mr Speaker. In the calmer mood, I will give way to the hon. Member for Hampstead and Kilburn (Glenda Jackson).

Glenda Jackson (Hampstead and Kilburn) (Lab): Is it not also part of the right hon. Gentleman's housing policy to ensure that rents in the social housing sector will rise to 90% of the median, and that the Government are considering abolishing secure tenancies?

Mr Duncan Smith: The answer is no for existing tenants. Our policy will apply to new tenants and new build, so the hon. Lady should check her facts.

Let us not forget that the private rental market is dynamic. That is the point that the Opposition fail to mention.

Angie Bray (Ealing Central and Acton) (Con): Will my right hon. Friend give way?

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Mr Duncan Smith: I will give way in a moment.

Around 40% of private rental tenancies are less than a year old, and 70% are less than three years old. What effectively happens in the marketplace is that there is a huge amount of movement. Another nonsense that Opposition Members have peddled over the past two weeks is that the sector is made up of a static group of people who have mostly lived in the same place all their lives and that we are about to uproot people who have a reasonable and rational reason to live where they are. In the past year, more than 100,000 people in the sector moved naturally. The idea that we will go in and raid all those homes is utter nonsense and scaremongering.

Mr Slaughter: The report referred to earlier says that independent research shows that 134,000 households will be evicted or forced to move when the cuts come in next year, and those are just the first set of cuts. It is the Government's policy to get rid of new social tenancies and to raise rents for new tenants to 80%. Over a period, the exact effect of that combination of measures will mean that no one on a low income can live in the inner city. Will the right hon. Gentleman have the courage to admit that that is his Government's policy?

Mr Duncan Smith: The impact assessment does not say that, and it is typical of the Opposition to take a figure for those who will be affected and assume automatically that they will be driven out of their homes. That is shameful.

Angie Bray: The scaremongering is a disgrace, and I am sure that many of us have had scared constituents coming to us having been worried unnecessarily by stories that they have heard from Labour Members. I have been looking online at some of the properties on offer in the private rented sector in Ealing and Central Acton. There are some remarkably good offers around that are well within the proposed caps-for example, a four-bedroom house with a garden at under £400 a week, and a flat for about £250 a week with access to a swimming pool. The situation is really not as dire as the Opposition are suggesting.

Mr Duncan Smith: My hon. Friend is right. We believe, and our calculations show that one third of all properties are available and will be ready for those who have to move. I say "have to move" because that assumes a static marketplace, and this marketplace is not static. I will return to that point in a second.

Mr Clive Betts (Sheffield South East) (Lab): Will the Secretary of State give way?

Mr Duncan Smith: I will give way in a moment.

I want to deal with another point that is being trumpeted by Labour Members, and some others who have risen to the worst extent of some of the figures. Families with children over 10 who must share a bedroom are classed as homeless and that led to the strange suggestion during an exchange in the Select Committee that tens of thousands of people will be homeless. That definition of homelessness is not one that I recognise. In fact, I looked at the report of that Select Committee and I note that my hon. Friend the Member for Bromsgrove (Sajid Javid) asked Roger Harding of Shelter whether
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he, my hon. Friend, having shared a bedroom as a child, had been homeless according to Shelter's definition. Shelter's response was yes, he had been. We are none of us served by this kind of nonsense. By all means let us have a rational debate about the reality of what we are trying to do.

Mr Douglas Alexander rose-

Mr Duncan Smith: I will give way to the right hon. Gentleman in a moment. I am quite happy to engage with him on this point, but, in answer to my original question, will he now disown all those who have been running around the houses telling everybody that there will be social cleansing and that all these people will be made homeless? Will he now say that that is not true, and will he apologise for what they were doing?

Mr Alexander: I do not think that the best interests of the country are served by the kind of exchange that the right hon. Gentleman is engaging in. I accept his offer of a rational conversation, however, and he has just raised the issue of the definition of homelessness. Only last week, his fellow Minister Lord Freud said that it was desirable that the legislation be changed in relation to the category of homelessness. Will the Secretary of State please clarify the Government's position on this? Is he supportive of changing homelessness legislation, or is he now going to cut his own Minister adrift?

Mr Duncan Smith: We have absolutely no plans to do that. Furthermore, if the right hon. Gentleman wants to engage in a sensible, constructive discussion on how we define homelessness, I am happy to do that. The point I am making about what has been going on is that Opposition Members should know better-he has an ex-housing Minister sitting next to him-and that they know full well that those definitions of "homeless" are simply not true. He should have disowned them early on, before we started this debate.

Simon Hughes: The Secretary of State is rightly trying to lower the temperature and to ensure that we deal in facts and not in hyperbole. Will he take this opportunity to deal with one other myth that has become common? Will he confirm that, if anyone in the private rented sector has to move because their property has become too expensive, it is not the Government's policy that they should move to a far-off community with which they have no links, and that the intention will always be that they should ideally stay in the community or council area where they come from and where they have lived?

Mr Duncan Smith: That is exactly what we want and what we intend. That is what we believe, for the most part, will actually happen-and in smaller numbers than people think. In some cases, there will be short moves even within boroughs.

I was asked about impact assessments, and we are going to publish them. We are bound to do so by the legislation. I am not trying to hide from that. We published an impact assessment after the Budget, and we are going to publish them when the legislation is due. I have already said that we will do that.

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Sajid Javid (Bromsgrove) (Con): My right hon. Friend was right to point out that I was shocked to learn in the Select Committee that I had been homeless as a child. I believe, however, that the question is not so much one of the definition of homelessness as one of whether people living on housing benefit should be forced to make the same choices that other low-income working families are forced to make. Those low-income working families typically pay rent to the 30th percentile and their children are forced to share bedrooms, as they would be in any ordinary family. It should be no different for anyone on housing benefit.

Mr Duncan Smith: My hon. Friend's exchange was the most interesting one to come out of that Committee sitting, and he is right about this. I do not think that the previous Government intended these consequences; they simply failed to recognise that their change was going to fuel this growth. If they are honest with themselves, they would say that they know that. The ex-Chancellor actually said that he thought that this was out of control. These are the sort of choices that ordinary people have to make when they cut their budgets in accordance with what housing they can afford, and that is what we are trying to do here. It is not about punishing people; it is about trying to get the rents in the social area of private renting back into line with what people are paying who are working and earning marginal incomes and are therefore unable to make ends meet.

Mr Douglas Alexander: The right hon. Gentleman has just made a statement saying that this is not about punishing people. Can he reconcile that statement with his policy of cutting 10% of somebody's housing benefit, when that person has done everything right, turned up for interviews, filled in applications and sought to secure jobs but alas, in a job market where five claimants chase every vacancy, has been unable to secure a job after 12 months?

Mr Duncan Smith: The realities of what we are bringing in around that will make the change happen. [Hon. Members: "What?"] Wait a minute-here is the real point. About 90% of all those who are unemployed are back into work within the year. That leaves us with a target of 10%. Remember that we are now bringing in the Work programme, which will work extensively with all the people in that category and return them to work. As I said to the right hon. Gentleman earlier, the changes we are making to the benefit system will make it much easier for those people to go back to work. My point is simply this: they will be achievable; they get rid of a disincentive to go to work, and we believe that they will actually work.

Several hon. Members rose -

Mr Duncan Smith: I give way to the hon. Member for Colchester (Bob Russell).

Bob Russell: Will my right hon. Friend clarify a point? Is he saying that rents are too high in the private sector? If that is the case-I am sure that is what he said-should there not be, in the interests of fairness, other measures to deal with landlords whose rents are too high?

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Mr Duncan Smith: Let me deal with that question. My Department pays for 40% of all rental housing in Britain-we pay 40% of the total bills-and is the biggest purchaser. What we do therefore has a massive effect on the marketplace. This is the point that Labour Members missed out on when they were in government. Any change they made had a direct effect on the marketplace. My simple point to the right hon. Member for Paisley and Renfrewshire South is that the change in local housing allowance, as we can see from the graphs, fuelled an immediate increase-it was not just down to the recession, but down to two particular factors. In getting the calculations wrong about the median line and the capping, they ended up allowing LHA to rocket to provide landlords with excess amounts of money for providing housing that would have cost less. How do we know that? [Interruption.] I am going to answer this really important question.

We know that for two good reasons. First, if we compare those who remained on what was there before-it did not change for them because it was new people who came on to LHA-we find that the differential between where they are now and where the LHA rate is amounts to 10%. LHA growth is thus 10% above where we might have been had the change not been made. That is the first thing. [Interruption.] Hold on a second. That was one factor that fuelled the problem because it allowed landlords to push up to the 50% point, which is exactly what they did.

The second point is that there are many things we can do. We now know that, according to the Office for National Statistics, the private marketplace in housing-Labour Members are completely wrong about this-fell by around 5% last year. At the same time, LHA rates, which the previous Government had set and left to us, had risen by 3%. There is thus a 7% gap with what is going on in the marketplace. What we want to do, by working with councils, is to drive those rents back down. The purpose of these changes is to give a real impetus to getting the rents down to make affordable housing more available in some areas.

Andrea Leadsom (South Northamptonshire) (Con): I have an excellent researcher who earns £22,000 a year. Just before I came to attend this debate, he pointed out that he has to commute into London because he cannot afford a room in central London. He remarked that his best chance of getting a flat in central London was to resign from his job and make himself homeless.

Several hon. Members rose-

Mr Duncan Smith: May I answer my hon. Friend's point first before I give way? My hon. Friend's real point is that there is no fairness in this particular system when people who have to make decisions about their housing have to commute distances to get to work. That is the reality for them. The idea that people can live exactly where there is work is simply not the case. That is the choice that people have to make.

Several hon. Members rose -

Mr Duncan Smith: Many of the colleagues of the right hon. Member for Paisley and Renfrewshire South want me to give way to them. Does he really want to take their place? Okay-

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Mr Douglas Alexander rose-

Madam Deputy Speaker (Dawn Primarolo): Order. Members should not be constantly standing on their feet. The Secretary of State is indicating to whom he intends to give way. I would be grateful if Members resumed their seats.

Mr Alexander: I would not wish the Secretary of State, however inadvertently, to leave the House with a misapprehension in relation to the impact of the 10% cut in housing benefit on those receiving jobseeker's allowance who find themselves unemployed after a year. If I heard him correctly, he came close to saying that people would not lose out because of other changes to the benefits system, such as the introduction of the Work programme. Will he therefore explain why, in the Red Book, it is scored as a saving of £110 million? Either people will lose money and be punished because they find themselves unemployed after 12 months, or they will be better off, in which case there should not be that saving score in the Red Book.

Mr Duncan Smith: We do not believe that they will reach that point. If the right hon. Gentleman looks at the figures-

Mr Alexander rose-

Mr Duncan Smith: I will come back to the right hon. Gentleman in a second. In the current static state, we will save money through the reforms that we have made.

Mr Marsden: The right hon. Gentleman is setting the cap and justifying the 10% cut for the long-term unemployed on the basis that people will be moved from welfare into work. Does he not realise that part of that process involves retraining and reskilling? If he does realise that, why has there been so little discussion between him and Ministers from the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills?

Mr Duncan Smith: I do not quite understand why the hon. Gentleman asks that question. I have been talking about the issue endlessly to Ministers from the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills. [Interruption.] The hon. Gentleman can take my word for it that I have spent a great deal of time talking to them, but if he would like to attend the next meeting, I should be more than happy to invite him.

Several hon. Members rose -

Mr Duncan Smith: I will give way, but I want to make some progress first.

The fact is that we have heard a lot of this nonsense. We have put aside a large amount of money-some £140 million, and we have been keeping the position under review-so that we can deal with the hardest cases when we believe that it is necessary for anyone to be affected or moved. The Department for Communities and Local Government is assisting us with that.

Among the Opposition's other charges was the charge that our changes were somehow not fair. The maximum rent following a cap-and the Opposition still have not said whether they agree with it-is £400, the weekly
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equivalent of more than £20,000 a year. Let me remind the House what someone who was out there earning would have to earn to pay that £20,000. That person would have to earn £80,000. The Government left us an LHA rate of £104,000 a year. Someone would have to earn £250,000 a year to pay that in rent. [Interruption.] I fully accept that we are dealing with the top end of the cases, who constitute by no means the largest number. The point is, however, that the previous Government were so slack with the system that they allowed abuses and excesses. Before the last election, even people on their own side were saying that they would have to change it. That is the reality.

Toby Perkins: Will the Secretary of State give way?

Mr Duncan Smith: I will, but then I must make some more progress.

Toby Perkins: I think that the Secretary of State is focusing excessively on the cap. My right hon. Friend the Member for Paisley and Renfrewshire South (Mr Alexander) has already made it clear that that is not the main focus of our objections to the Government's proposals. The Secretary of State dealt with myths earlier. Will he now deal with the myth that housing benefit recipients are out of work? Many of them are working, but they are low-paid. More than 350 of them in Chesterfield will be badly affected, when they are trying to work their way towards a better life. Why are they the people whom the Secretary of State is attacking with his policy?

Mr Duncan Smith: There are people in work who receive housing benefit, but the worst aspect of the changes with which the previous Government left us is that many of them are now trapped in short working hours. They dare not work for more hours, because they would lose too much of their housing benefit and would lose their homes as a consequence. Setting housing benefit at the levels at which the previous Government set it was no kindness to people who really do want to get on and work longer hours, because they are faced with the invidious choice of whether to move. That is one of the reasons more than 100,000 people moved in the rental market last year. Many people have to move to find a house that is suitable so that they can go and find better work. That is the reality. The hon. Gentleman's party left us with that situation, and it is his party that he should now blame for the mess and chaos.

Ms Karen Buck (Westminster North) (Lab): Will the Secretary of State give way?

Mr Duncan Smith: I must make a bit of progress. I will give way in a second.

Although that was not the largest number, the fact is that the top 5,000 of those cases of housing benefit cost the Exchequer £100 million a year. Unless Labour Members think that £100 million a year is not a lot of money, I should like to know why the shadow Secretary of State does not say that he agrees with the capping system that we want to introduce. Will he perhaps tell me whether he agrees with the capping system? No, he will not. Yet again we have heard no policy from the Opposition, but the fact is that we inherited a chaotic housing system.

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Mr Alexander: I repeat what I said earlier: we want to avoid the arbitrary imposition of an immediate cap resulting in higher costs, not lower costs, for the taxpayer. We are prepared to look at a phased approach, but we also think that a regional cap should be considered. Is that clear enough for the right hon. Gentleman?

Mr Duncan Smith: The right hon. Gentleman knows that the vast majority of that £100 million comes from London. So what is he saying? Is he going to impose a cap on London?

Mr Alexander: Even the right hon. Gentleman and I would agree that London is contained within one of the regions of the United Kingdom.

Mr Duncan Smith: At last, we have an admission from the shadow Secretary of State that Labour is going to cap this. Now we only have to deal with the levels. It is unbelievable. If he wants to say that he is going to cap it, why was that not in the motion? There is not a word. Labour Members have spent the last two weeks scaring everybody out there and then not daring to tell people that they themselves want to cap. What a ridiculous lot of nonsense. The reality is that we inherited the mess that their Government left behind.

Ms Buck: On that point, will the right hon. Gentleman confirm that the Mayor of London's housing adviser has stated that, in London alone, the cost of temporary accommodation for homeless households, arising from the impact of the caps, could exceed the total savings by £13 million in one region alone? Will he also confirm that the figure for working households on local housing allowance is almost half the total case load, including those on JSA with the 90% annual turnover that he has just confirmed?

Mr Duncan Smith: The reality is that the adviser said that before he even knew how much we were using for the discretionary allowance. [Interruption.] Hold on a second. He said "could". The reality is that this is not going to happen. There should be no need, with the discretionary allowance, for people to be made homeless. That is just the nonsense with which Labour Members want to scare everybody.

Ms Buck rose-

Mr Duncan Smith: No, no; I am already answering the question. I do not agree and we do not agree with the statement that the adviser made. I have explained the issue to him personally, and he has accepted that.

Ms Buck rose-

Mr Duncan Smith: No, I am not going to give way. I also want to say to the hon. Lady that she includes in her figures those who are in work with those on jobseeker's allowance. She must not confuse two different positions, yet again trying to merge figures that are not right.

Several hon. Members rose -

Mr Duncan Smith: I am going to make progress. Labour Members continue to try to accelerate the figures to the worst level and then make ludicrous assumptions.
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That is what is going on. The fact is that we inherited 5 million people on out-of-work benefits from the Labour Government-the hon. Lady was in the Government-which they did nothing about at all. Two million people of working age are claiming incapacity benefit, of whom 900,000 have been claiming it for an entire decade.

The figures that lie behind this issue are astonishing. Today we spend £1 in £3 on British welfare, which that Government left us, yet youth unemployment is higher, inequality is greater and there are 800,000 more working-age adults in poverty than in 1998-99. That is the great record of the last Government.

Andrew Griffiths (Burton) (Con) rose-

Mr Duncan Smith: The housing benefit reforms have to be seen in the context of that terrible bill that we were left. Housing benefit has rocketed from £14 billion in 2005-06 to nearly £22 billion in cash terms in 2010-11. By the way, I say to the right hon. Member for Don Valley (Caroline Flint), who I gather was on TV earlier saying that the benefit was basically in a steady state, that that is a real-terms 50% increase in the housing bill. That does not sound like a steady state to me or anybody else I know.

If left unreformed, the budget is projected to reach £24 billion in 2014-15. That is £1,500 per taxpayer per year. If Labour Members think that reasonable and fair-

Mr Alexander rose-

Mr Duncan Smith: No, I am not giving way right now because somebody else wants to intervene. If Labour Members think that that budget is fair, they should say to taxpayers, "We think it's fair to charge you, who are working hard, more, to give people housing that they could not afford if they were in work."

Andrew Griffiths: I thank the Secretary of State for giving way. He will know that one of the myths put about by the Opposition was that councils in London were already booking bed and breakfasts across the city to cope with the consequences of this policy. I draw the Secretary of State's attention to a website called, which has made some freedom of information requests to local authorities in London. I shall pick just a few. In Kensington and Chelsea, no such bookings have been made; in Wandsworth, no bookings have been made in bed and breakfasts; Lewisham council confirms that it has not made any bookings-

Madam Deputy Speaker: Order. That was supposed to be an intervention, not an opportunity to read statistics on to the record. I am sure the Secretary of State is perfectly capable of doing that himself.

Mr Duncan Smith: My hon. Friend the Member for Burton (Andrew Griffiths) is right. That was based on one comment by one person, who backed it up with no evidence. The point here is that, as we are discussing with councils, there is no need for them to worry about having to put people into homeless accommodation because once we get these numbers right, which we believe we are doing, the money we will be allowing will be sufficient to cover the costs, such as for rents and school year changes, of those who may have to move, of whom there will be far fewer than the Opposition claim.
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That is the real point, so my hon. Friend is right. What did Labour do with the figure in question? They just used it by ramping it up and saying, "This is terrible, all these people are going to be shipped out to Reading or somewhere on the south coast"-another scare story put about by Labour. It is absurd.

Mr Alexander rose -

Mr Duncan Smith: If the right hon. Gentleman wants to intervene yet again, he should take the opportunity to say something that he should have made clear in his speech: that he abhors all those who have frightened everybody over homelessness.

Mr Alexander: I am very happy to condemn people who frighten on the basis of figures, like those the right hon. Gentleman has just used to suggest the total housing benefit bill at the end of this Parliament, as that is premised on there being absolutely no change in this Parliament, despite the fact that in the first half of his speech he seemed to argue that we had had lots of reform proposals up our sleeve. Please may we have some logic and rationality? Either we were proposing to reform the system, in which case the figure will not be £24 billion, or we were not going to reform it, in which case it was. Which is it?

Mr Duncan Smith: There was nothing in the spending plans and Labour Members never had the courage to tell the general public what they were going to do. They fought an election on a false premise. [Interruption.] They pretended- [Interruption.] No, it was they who pretended. They fought an election on the false premise that somehow they were not going to have to make these changes and they were not going to be severe. Perhaps the right hon. Gentleman will now tell me by exactly how much they were planning to cut the housing budget; would he like me to give way so he can tell me that? He does not rise to his feet because he cannot argue that case; he is completely wrong. Labour says one thing to the public and something else in its private discussions.

I want to make one other important point. I recently appeared before the Select Committee and an Opposition Member put it to me that one reason the local housing allowance figures had risen so much was that there was not enough social housing. I agree, but who do we have to blame for that over the past 10 years? That is the point. [Interruption.] Yes, 13 years in total, but the situation was particularly bad during the last 10 of them.

We must remember that the previous Government left us with a house building record that is the lowest since the early 1920s. Affordable housing supply as a whole was down by more than a third under the last Government. On average, 21,800 social rented homes were built each year, even lower than the figure-which they used to argue was too low-achieved by the previous Conservative Government, which was 39,000 a year.

The reality is that Labour Members set a double whammy for themselves. They introduced an LHA which then rose because they did not build enough houses, and they allowed the whole private rented market to balloon, all because of their failure during their period in government. I hope they will apologise for that one day, but I suspect not.

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Emily Thornberry rose -

Mr Betts rose-

Mr Raynsford rose -

Mr Duncan Smith: I will give way in a minute.

Nine tenths of the rise in housing benefit in the past 10 years is down to increased rents. To put that into context, if that increased spend in rents going to private landlords had instead been used to invest in social housing, we would have had 80,000 social homes being built per year. I therefore wonder who Labour Members think has squandered the money they had flowing into the Exchequer. Political short-termism was the reason for that.

Mr Raynsford rose -

Mr Duncan Smith: Okay, I will give way to the right hon. Gentleman as he was one of those responsible.

Mr Raynsford: Will the Secretary of State please now put the record straight and say that the increase in housing benefit attributable to rent increase covers both the social and the private sectors, and that the increase in housing association rents contributed to building the homes that were built? Will he now put the record straight and say it is completely wrong to imply that this is entirely going to private landlords when it is not?

Mr Duncan Smith: When the right hon. Gentleman is in a hole he should stop digging. The reality is that he was responsible for one of the lowest levels of building social housing. I do not know whether he is proud of that, but I would not be if I were sitting there with him.

We have to ensure that people who pay their way without recourse to benefits will no longer have to subsidise people who live in properties that the former could not afford. As I said, the maximum rate under the cap will be set at a level that is affordable and which some will consider generous. Based on what people spend on average on housing, the figure will be quite high; about £80,000 a year is what you would have to have.

Mr Betts rose -

Mr Duncan Smith: Forgive me, but I am going to make some progress, as I have given way a lot. I might give way again later.

Through the emergency Budget and spending review, we proposed a set of housing benefit reforms designed to bring back under control a system that has been out of control. I accept that the responsibility of Government is always to get the balance right as we protect, incentivise, and ensure fairness in the system. Critically, for housing, that means getting the rents down. Landlords have a responsibility, and I am prepared and determined to work with councils, with the Mayor of London and with any other mayor to help get those rents down. We are the biggest purchaser of rents and I believe we will have a real role to play there. As I have pointed out, private rents have, in any case, dropped in the past year-Opposition Members need to recognise that that involves an actual figure, not one that they can conjure up like the rest of their stuff.

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Let me remind the House how distorted the private rental market is. As I said, between November 2008 and February 2010 private rents fell by 5% and local housing allowance rates rose by 3%. LHA has now run its unaffordable course and we must turn it around; it fuelled a landlords' charter to raise rents and has made housing more expensive for the whole population. It has not done any favours for those on low or marginal incomes; it has done them a great disservice. There are parts of central London where people can live only if they are on housing benefit or they are very wealthy. One could argue that Labour has socially cleared parts of London of working people who are trying to earn a living. That is the effect of what Labour has been doing. One would think that as the country grappled with the storm of the recession, these rents would come down, but they did not.

I agree with the right hon. Member for Paisley and Renfrewshire South that we must manage this transition, and I am happy to talk to him about how that works. We have sought to do that because local authorities still have a statutory duty to house people, and we will work with them as well; with my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government, we are working with councils right now on the transition plan. Our figures show that 96% of claimants will face a shortfall of below £20 per week and the vast majority of those will see a shortfall of over that figure-I remind people that this relates to a steady state and does not even begin to recognise what happens when the rents start to fall. If they fall by any small percentage, that changes the picture dramatically.

Several hon. Members rose -

Mr Duncan Smith: I have said that I have given way enough, so I am going to complete this. For where problems do arise, we have tripled the discretionary housing payment to £140 million. We will keep that under review; I am prepared, where necessary, even to add to that. We will not shy away from the duty of care to provide housing for those who cannot house themselves. A safety net will not just remain; it will be improved for the most vulnerable. That will be done through an increase in discretionary housing payments and an additional bedroom for non-resident carers-the previous Government should have provided that, but never did. If we are prepared to pay, as we are, some £20,000, there is no reason anyone should be left without a home. Our choices are tough but right, and we are weeks from regulations to fix the broken system.

We are in touching distance of changing things, including through producing, later this week, a welfare Bill that will put all this into context and that could change the whole prospect for the next generation as we improve work incentives, secure fairness, and protect the vulnerable. We will introduce a comprehensive work programme, which will support people going back to work in a way that has never been done before; we will build a universal credit system to ensure work pays; and we will get welfare spending under control to regain economic credibility and stability.

May I remind the House of something that the Opposition did when they were in government? They made changes when they sorted out the pathway back in 2005. At that time, they made an assumption that
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those who were renting could cope with an £18 increase in their rent, which they duly did. It is not as if it was we who were hammering people in difficulty; the Labour Government were already doing it and then they took their eye off the ball. That is why, over the last week, we have witnessed Labour's confusion. Some Labour Members, although not the right hon. Member for Paisley and Renfrewshire South, to be fair to him, but a number of his colleagues-he knows this, and I am looking him in the eye-started to blow very faintly and then louder on the dog whistle, just trying to scare people outside, winding things up until they became ludicrous and he finally had to try to draw the tone back down to a reasonable level. I believe that the right hon. Gentleman is a reasonable man and that what we need is constructive dialogue-I am ready for that. He should say to his colleagues that if they want to show what it is really like to be in opposition preparing for government, they need to put the dog whistle away, change what they are doing and behave as though they have a credible plan.

Several hon. Members rose -

Madam Deputy Speaker: Order. I remind hon. Members that Mr Speaker has imposed an eight-minute time limit on all speeches. There are 36 or 37 Members who wish to participate this afternoon and the time limit starts now.

5.5 pm

Tony Lloyd (Manchester Central) (Lab): The Secretary of State began by making great play of the fact that there had been what he described as "scaremongering". However, many of my constituents are very scared about his Government's proposals. If they have taken the trouble to listen to his speech today, I regret to say that he will have done nothing to allay their concerns. Of those in receipt of housing benefit in my city of Manchester-70,000-plus-10,000 will be affected by the proposals. Some will be affected significantly, as I hope to make clear in a moment. That is the reality. People are scared because they see either a significant loss of income or the reality that they will be forced to move home. That is what the proposals will do.

I am delighted that the hon. Member for Bermondsey and Old Southwark (Simon Hughes) is in the Chamber. He was quoted in an election leaflet for his party in my constituency recently and it seemed to run almost totally counter to his question to the Secretary of State. I will be happy to give way to him on this point, but the words that were put into his mouth in that election leaflet were that it was "Labour lies" that people would be forced to move from their homes-Labour lies told in order to win an election. A few moments ago, he asked the Secretary of State to confirm that were people forced to move, they would be in a position to stay in the same neighbourhood. He clearly accepts that people will be forced to move under these proposals, and that, of course, is not a Labour lie but something that the Government are proposing.

Simon Hughes: For the avoidance of doubt, I am very clear that if people who are in the private sector have to move they should not be forced to move away from their communities, because community cohesion is very important, and that the proposal to knock 10% off
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people's benefit if they have been out of work for a year and have not been able to get a job is not something I support.

Tony Lloyd: That is very helpful, but I hope that if the hon. Gentleman speaks later he will apologise to my constituents, at least for the words that were put into his mouth in a Lib Dem election leaflet that went out during the by-election that was won very successfully by the Labour party last week in Manchester. It was quite clear that he was quoted as saying that people would not be forced to move, but it is now clear that both he and I accept that the Government's proposals will force people to give up their homes, and that is unacceptable and atrocious.

Simon Hughes: I do not think that we can anticipate exactly what will happen, which is why speculating and making people worried is unfair. We have to go on the figures that the Government have produced in their impact assessment and I hope that the local authorities and the Government, as I have said to the Secretary of State, will agree the figures. If we get common facts, we will reduce alarm considerably.

Tony Lloyd: I think that that was nearly the apology I sought, although it was not quite the apology that my constituents were entitled to hear from the hon. Gentleman, who supports this coalition. It was not quite the apology needed by those who will lose significant sums of money and will be forced to absorb that loss by not being able to spend their money on other things.

Steve Webb: I think the hon. Gentleman's own manifesto pledged this precise policy.

Tony Lloyd: I am talking about the Minister's policy. My right hon. Friend the Member for Paisley and Renfrewshire South (Mr Alexander) made it clear what a Labour Government would have done. That was clear also from the statements of the then Secretary of State, and it was very different from the current Government's proposals. The proposed income loss is not something that I recognise from any Labour manifesto.

The income loss will be significant for those in one, two or three-bedroom houses. In my constituency, for example, 8,000 people face an income loss of £12 to £14 a week. That sum may be trivial to a Minister or Secretary of State, but £12 to £14 is a significant part of the disposable income of somebody on housing benefit or on benefits more generally. The House ought not to countenance taking away that amount of money. It penalises the most vulnerable people in our society to prop up the Government's policies. That is not scaremongering; it is a disgrace. Ministers and their supporters should recognise that.

There is another aspect of the proposals that we should not countenance. The Secretary of State made a long and complicated speech, which gave no comfort whatever to those in my constituency who will lose money. It gave no comfort to those who will potentially lose their homes. It gave no comfort because the right hon. Gentleman is far more concerned with the polemic of his speech than with the reality of human beings who will lose out in respect of both housing and their finances.

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I hope that the right hon. Gentleman and others on the Government Benches will think again, particularly about some of the most difficult aspects of their proposals. There are parts of them which, with proper care and attention, we could all begin to agree with. The problem, at least in part, is the ridiculous speed of their implementation and the lack of acceptance of the impact that they will have. Were the Secretary of State to stand at the Dispatch Box and say that the Government are prepared to look again at the speed of their implementation, we might have a basis for real debate.

The worry among my constituents is that the proposals are driven, first, by concerns of budgetary restraint-the battle that the Secretary of State fought with the Chancellor and lost-and secondly, although this is a claim that I do not make against the Secretary of State, by the apparent desire among some of his Back Benchers to penalise the poorest and most vulnerable in our society. That rhetoric has come through in some of the debate.

Mr Aidan Burley (Cannock Chase) (Con) rose -

Tony Lloyd: The hon. Gentleman will forgive me, I have a limited amount of time and will lose some if I give way.

The speed of the changes raises real issues. Even if I believed that rents would adjust as the Secretary of State believes, they would not do so at the lightning speed required by his policies. People will not suddenly find their landlords voluntarily reducing their rents by £12, £13 or £14 a week. That will not happen for a number of reasons.

Andrew Bingham (High Peak) (Con): Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

Tony Lloyd: No, I am sorry.

The first of those reasons is that there is no evidence that rents adjust at that speed. The second and more important reason is that in a city such as Manchester-a complicated city which is quite different from the London housing market, with different types of housing tenure and different types of housing cheek by jowl-the housing benefit system is not the primary driver of rental levels. Those are driven by other factors. If that thesis is right, the Secretary of State's proposals are doomed not to succeed. If they do not succeed, rent levels will not adjust downwards and people will inevitably lose money. Even if rent levels were to adjust, they would not do that overnight. That is why, partly as a plea and partly as a demand on behalf of my constituents, I hope that the Secretary of State will think again about the speed with which the changes are implemented.

The Secretary of State's argument about jobseeker's allowance was rather confusing. He seemed to imply that no one would really lose 10% of JSA because nobody would find themselves in that position. Even in the relatively high employment times under the Labour Government, my constituency still had serious pockets of unemployment because it is one of those constituencies that are the repository of the longer-term unemployed. In those circumstances, it is fanciful to suggest that no one on JSA will be unemployed for more than 12 months and fanciful to say that nobody will be hit by that 10% penalty.

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Ten per cent. of JSA is a huge amount of money for somebody in that situation to lose. I hope that the Secretary of State will look again at this issue, because, as my right hon. Friend the shadow Secretary of State has said on many occasions, those whom we regard as blameless-those who have conformed to everything that the Government and society have asked of them, sought work and gone out of their way to upskill and everything else-simply should not be penalised in the way that the Government propose. I hope that the Secretary of State, almost mirroring what he said-if he believes it-will say that if all the other changes that he proposes to benefits are to be effective, he will withdraw the 10% cut. To follow his direction of travel, it is an unnecessary 10% cut, and it simply should not exist.

People in my constituency who are in work, looking for work or disabled are going to lose out under the proposals. When Manchester city council considered the measures, it discovered that the people most likely to be hurt were single parents and those seeking work. They are simply not the people whom we should penalise. If Government Members' ambition is to penalise, they should support their Government and these proposals. If their real intention is to reform the system, they should say to their Secretary of State, "Please think again."

5.16 pm

Mr Oliver Heald (North East Hertfordshire) (Con): After the election the Government found themselves in a situation whereby it was necessary to curb costs in a number of areas, and housing benefit was one of them. However, it is important to do so fairly and to bear in mind the policy's overall effect. We cannot get away from the fact that housing benefit rents went up faster than the private rental market from 2000 right the way through to 2007. That is the evidence that was given to the Select Committee on Work and Pensions. In 2008, the system changed, the local housing allowance came in and the situation became worse.

The National Housing Federation, in its evidence to the Committee, said that

The British Property Federation said that

Paddington citizens advice bureau in central London said that

I shall not cite any more evidence, but I remember that during the Committee's previous inquiry into housing allowance earlier this year and before the general election, Blackpool, to which the hon. Member for Blackpool South (Mr Marsden) referred, was specifically mentioned, because the broad rental market area there included Fylde. As a result, all the rents in central Blackpool went up far faster and far higher than was expected, so
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it is not surprising that the change under discussion, which I hope will rectify the situation, will have an impact in Blackpool.

Karen Bradley (Staffordshire Moorlands) (Con): In evidence to the Committee, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors told us that the average returns for private landlords in the housing benefit market were 4 to 5%. Does my hon. Friend agree that that seems to be a significant return for any private landlord?

Mr Heald: My hon. Friend, who makes an important contribution to the Committee, makes an important point. If we look at the effect of the policy, we find no doubt that landlords will reduce rents, because all the evidence to the Committee suggests that they will.

There are arguments about how much effect the changes will have, but the British Property Federation and the Residential Landlords Association have said that 29% of landlords would reduce rents voluntarily. The Cambridge university research for Shelter shows that 29% of tenants will not be able to negotiate a rent reduction or make up the difference. It concludes that of the remaining 29%, 50% of the group will be in difficulties because landlords will not accept the lower rents paid and will not forbear. It says that some £42 million to £82 million a year will be needed to help those who do not get that forbearance from the landlord, are unable to negotiate a change, and so on.

Let us bear in mind, however, that the Government have set aside very substantial resources for exactly this problem. One might say that the mid-point is around £60 million, which is the figure that the Government are moving towards, although the Secretary of State said, very reasonably, that he will keep it under review and see what exact figure is needed. It is completely wrong to suggest that the Government have gone into this without realising that they must match hardship if it is found.

Mr McCann: If this is about a recalibration of rent, why are the Government using the poorest and most vulnerable in society as a battering ram to get there?

Mr Heald: To be fair, the hon. Gentleman should think occasionally about the hard-pressed taxpayer. Working people on the lowest incomes pay lower rents than housing benefit claimants. Surely the principle should be that we all want to help someone worse off than ourselves, but that the average taxpayer should not be expected to put a person into a better position than he himself would ever be able to afford.

Jonathan Edwards (Carmarthen East and Dinefwr) (PC): Would not a better approach be to follow the regulatory reforms in the Republic of Ireland and 40 other countries, and in New York city, where rents are capped for benefit recipients and for normal working people? That would enable the Government to control their benefits bill as well as making rents affordable for normal working people.

Mr Heald: As somebody who believes in markets, I think that what really needs to happen is that we have enough social housing. As the Secretary of State said, it is woeful that the previous Government, who were supposed to want to help people in that situation, did so little over all those years. I am very hopeful that the proposals will improve matters.

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Ms Buck: Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

Mr Heald: I am running short of time, I am afraid.

Let me turn to disincentives to work. The fact is that the Government's welfare programme is all about trying to get people back to work. It is a big ambition to do something about the 3 million households where nobody works, even though there are people of working age.

Graham Jones (Hyndburn) (Lab) rose -

Ms Buck rose -

Mr Heald: I have got only a few minutes left, and I have already given way three or four times.

It is a disincentive for someone to work if they know that they will never be able to earn enough to pay their rent. That is a ludicrous situation in which to have trapped people. We need to tackle that problem, and there is no other truly sensible way of doing so.

Ms Buck: Just before this myth takes hold too completely, will the hon. Gentleman at least concede that just under half the recipients of local housing allowance are either in work or on jobseeker's allowance? The Secretary of State confirmed that 90% of JSA claimants returned to work within a year. Constantly repeating the idea that housing benefit claimants are not in work is misleading the House, frankly.

Mr Heald: But the hon. Lady must accept that the Secretary of State has a grand ambition, which is to get people into work. One of the ways of doing that is the universal credit, which tackles the very problem that she is talking about. We should be supporting the Secretary of State, as a Parliament, for finally tackling some of these dreadful issues that have pulled our country back for so many years. The hon. Lady really must not go around telling people that 50% of such people are in work or on JSA, because 13% are in work, not 50%. Someone who enters work on low pay loses housing benefit very soon afterwards. Addressing that issue is one of the great improvements that universal credit will bring. I support the policy, and I believe that the independent evidence supports it.

5.24 pm

Mr William Bain (Glasgow North East) (Lab): It is a pleasure to follow the hon. Member for North East Hertfordshire (Mr Heald) and the other right hon. and hon. Members who have contributed so far.

The Secretary of State likened his welfare reform programme to that of William Beveridge in the 1940s. I welcome his ambition, but I suspect that Beveridge would have major criticisms of the unnecessary hardship that the Government's housing benefit proposals will cause. It is a matter of great regret that no member of Beveridge's party has yet risen to their feet to criticise these unjust proposals. Beveridge supported a contribution-based welfare state and the Government doing more to stimulate job creation. That would represent the foundations of genuine welfare reform, and I hope that the Government will reconsider their plans, which will unduly punish those who have the least. They cannot in any shape or form be described as progressive.

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There are three key issues of concern to my constituents: the proposals to slash housing benefit payments by 10% for those who find themselves on jobseeker's allowance for 12 months or more; the restriction of local housing allowance payments to rent for properties in the lowest 30% of rental levels, rather than the median level; and the plans for a crude national cap on housing benefit payments.

The 10% cut hides the inconvenient truth for the Government that affected tenants will have to make up the difference from their jobseeker's allowance. A single, childless person will therefore experience a drop of almost 30% in their disposable income, as the Scottish Federation of Housing Associations established in its briefing. For the 970 people in Glasgow North East who have been out of work for more than 12 months, the measure could mean a loss of £25 a week in their incomes. Across the UK, the proposals are expected to save £110 million a year from 2013, but at what price to my constituents and to 4.7 million constituents of right hon. and hon. Members throughout the House, who face being pushed into higher levels of poverty?

The SFHA underlined in its briefing that approximately 700,000 people in the social and private rented sectors would be affected by the new rule, losing an average of £9 a week. Overall, 5,445 people in Glasgow who have been on JSA for 12 months or more will lose out-some 22% of all housing benefit recipients in the city. The loss for the 2,750 Glaswegians receiving the allowance for a one-bedroom flat will be £7 a week, for the 2,390 affected people in two-bedroom houses it will be £10 a week, for the 590 recipients in a three-bedroom house it will be £15 a week, and for the 50 families in four-bedroom houses it will be £22 a week.

The Glasgow Housing Association has said that between 11 and 16% of its tenants will be affected by the changes to the rules on presumed under-occupancy of properties. Unable to make ends meet, tenants will suffer higher expenses and the prospect of substantial debts. At worst, they will lag behind on their rent payments and perhaps ultimately face eviction. People will be pushed out of prosperous areas where they have the highest prospects of finding work, and there will be an increase in unemployment and social tensions in areas that are already marginalised and suffer multiple deprivation.

Under the stricter medical tests that the Government have introduced, people will be moved off employment and support allowance, incapacity benefit and severe disablement allowance and on to jobseeker's allowance. They will be at a greater disadvantage in the labour market, and will they not find it more difficult to find a job within 12 months? If healthy and fit people are unable to find work under the Government's policies, what chance have the most vulnerable ?

In the June Budget, the Chancellor assured the House that he was aiming to protect the most vulnerable in our society, but the Government's proposals will hurt the most vulnerable and those who are trying to find work, at a time when their fiscal policies will make that much more difficult with the loss of almost 1 million public sector and associated private sector jobs, as PricewaterhouseCoopers established recently. The truth
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is, as the Office for Budget Responsibility established in June, there is no guarantee that the economy will be in a state to secure the availability of sufficient jobs by 2013.

Singling out those who can least afford to lose money is neither fair nor progressive. The Government should consider investing in affordable housing rather than slashing the budget by half over the course of this Parliament. That would not only secure savings in the long term, but protect the vulnerable and incentivise work in the coming year.

I support welfare reform that ensures that taking a job will pay and that improves work and training opportunities for those whom previous initiatives have not reached. However, my hon. Friends and I cannot support plans that set out to punish the most vulnerable in our society, who make great efforts to seek work, and who deserve a Government who is on their side and not preparing to abandon them at their time of greatest need. These are the wrong proposals targeting the wrong people. I hope hon. Members across the House will reject them and support the Opposition's motion in the Division Lobby tonight.

5.31 pm

Jenny Willott (Cardiff Central) (LD): For many years, housing benefit has acted as a barrier for people who are trying to get back into work. I remember many debates in the last Parliament in which hon. Members raised concerns about people being trapped in poverty, out of work and frustrated. If, for example, a constituent got a job and lost their housing benefit, they would not be able to afford their rent. To be fair, the previous Government put much effort into ensuring that people would be better off in work than they were on benefits, but the housing benefit rules often scuppered such efforts. I hope that these proposals, which are part of the wider reform of the benefit system of which universal credit is a part, will help people get out of that benefit trap and into work. They should also benefit people who are working and paying tax. As many hon. Members have said, it is unfair when such people see the Government paying for a home for someone else that they could not possibly afford themselves, even though they are working.

There have been some positive changes, including the proposals for people with disabilities. Previously, a person who had a full-time carer could not claim for a room for them. In the previous Parliament, as the hon. Member for North East Hertfordshire (Mr Heald) said, the Work and Pensions Committee recommended a change to that unfair system. I am very glad that such a proposal is now being introduced, as it rights a wrong.

I warmly welcome the long-overdue decision to reform housing benefit. Although I have concerns about some of the Government's proposals, I have to say that much of the criticism of the plans has been extremely overblown. Much has been said in the media and in the debate today, and I am sure that more points will be raised later tonight. I will raise my concerns with the Minister, and I look forward to his response.

One problem with the local housing allowance that was identified in the previous Parliament concerns the broad rental market areas. Many BRMAs are very large and cover very different areas. Cambridge is often cited as an example. The BRMA covers the city itself, a large
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rural area and some smaller towns, including Newmarket and Ely. Shelter's research found that in Cambridge itself, only 4% of rental properties were affordable to people on LHA, while in rural areas up to 70% were affordable. That has significant implications for people on local housing allowance who want to access work. They are pushed out of the city, which is where most of the jobs, particularly the low-paid jobs, are to be found. That is not a new problem. It arose as soon as LHA was introduced.

If the Government change the LHA calculation from the median rent to the 30th percentile-I am afraid that this sounds like jargon-BRMAs such as Cambridge or Blackpool, which already have a problem, could find things getting even worse. The Select Committee recommended an urgent review of the particularly problematic BRMAs, which I hope the Government will consider further in the light of the proposed changes.

I would also like some reassurance on the raising of the age limit for the shared room rate from 25 to 35. I understand the Government's argument that it is often unlikely that young people in work could afford to rent on their own, and they are more likely to rent a room in a shared property. However, when the Select Committee considered that point earlier in the year, we found that the shared room rate led to an increased threat of homelessness, particularly for vulnerable young people. It is unlikely that those who have recently been made homeless, or those who are suffering from a mental illness or recovering from an addiction, will be able to organise living in a shared household, but they constitute the group most likely to face a shortfall between rent and local housing allowance. Increasing the age limit to 35 could broaden that pool of people and increase the number of people facing a shortfall and homelessness-and because plugging that gap is often left to discretionary housing benefit, this has implications for the Government's plans in that area.

I welcome the significant increase that the Government have announced in the amount available for discretionary housing benefit over the next four years. That will be very important in determining how well the changes are made. However, discretionary housing benefit is usually used only for short-term payments-certainly, my constituency casework leads me to believe that that is how local authorities see it. Often, for example, it will be paid, following a change of circumstances, to tide people over until they can make longer-term arrangements. Some of the Government's proposals for changing housing benefit will have more long-term implications there, including the changes involving the shared room rate, and so on. Local authorities need more flexibility in their use of discretionary housing benefit over the long term in order to plug the gap and ensure that we do not end up targeting particularly vulnerable people.

The biggest issue for my colleagues and me, however, is one that has been mentioned by hon. Members already-the proposal to reduce housing benefit for those claiming jobseeker's allowance for more than a year. If we really are trying to help people off benefits and into work, this arbitrary limit makes no sense. It does not take into account the job market in a particular area or the effort that a claimant may have made to find a job, and it could have serious implications for child poverty, in particular. I hope that the Government can think through that proposal again. If we are applying
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the test that the reforms should support vulnerable people, help them into work and ensure they have a roof over their heads, while ensuring that work pays, reducing housing benefit for jobseekers after one year fails that test.

That is a shame, because most of the rest of the proposals are sensible. Overall, I welcome the reforms, and I am glad that at last the Government are doing something.

Clive Efford (Eltham) (Lab): Will the hon. Lady confirm that her website states that the benefit cuts will hit the poorest hardest? If so, would she like to put that on the record in the House?

Jenny Willott: I have to confess that I am not au fait with every page on my website. [Hon. Members: "Oh!"] Having returned a few weeks ago from maternity leave, I am afraid that my brain is suffering somewhat. However, that is for a debate on the comprehensive spending review in general. This debate is specifically about housing benefit, on which I have made my views very clear.

Overall, I welcome the reforms, and I am glad that at last the Government are sorting out housing benefit. It has been of significant concern to Members on both sides of the House for many years. Government Members all have the same aim, and I hope that the Government can take my comments in the constructive spirit in which they are intended. We would all like housing benefit to be set up in a way that helps people lift themselves out of poverty and progress through work, and does not act as a barrier to people trying to show ambition and better themselves. I hope that by tweaking the proposals we can do just that.

5.39 pm

Mr Nick Raynsford (Greenwich and Woolwich) (Lab): Let me draw attention at the outset to my interests as declared in the register.

It is clear that the Government are pursuing a policy not of housing benefit reform but of housing benefit cuts-a policy based on assumptions that are wholly untested.

Bob Russell: Will the right hon. Gentleman give way?

Mr Raynsford: No, I have only just started. I will give way in due course, but the hon. Gentleman is perhaps being a little impatient. He might benefit from listening for a moment before interrupting.

The policy is based on assumptions, many of which are wholly untested, premises that are, frankly, incredible, and an absence of detailed impact assessments of how the eight different cuts will cumulatively affect the 4.75 million households that currently receive housing benefit. In my view, it is that absence of a detailed and thorough appraisal of the impact of the cuts that is the most serious indictment of the Government.

We have heard the Secretary of State's claim that the effect of the changes will be to reduce rent levels in the private rented sector. His noble Friend Lord Freud made a similar claim last week when, according to a report in The Guardian, he said:

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As the Secretary of State and Lord Freud are clearly not totally familiar with the rented market, let me remind them and their colleagues on the Front Bench what is actually going on. Yesterday's Evening Standard reported:

The director of a lettings agency is quoted as saying:

He said that

A partner at Cluttons is quoted as saying:

adding that

She said:

The director of another agency said:

Bob Russell: I was going to ask the right hon. Gentleman what interest he was declaring, but my question to him now is this: is he not talking about supply and demand? If the issue is supply and demand, why did the previous Government, in which he played a leading role for 13 years, fail with the supply?

Mr Raynsford: Let me say to the hon. Gentleman what I have said in many previous debates. When we came into government in 1997 we inherited a very serious problem caused by the condition of the existing housing stock, as he knows. He also knows that a great deal of money was put into the decent homes programme to improve the condition of millions of social homes throughout the country. Because that was a priority, perhaps not enough was spent on building new homes, but if he looks at the figures, he will know that during the later years of the previous Government, until the recession hit, there was a rising trend of new house construction in all tenures, including social housing. Had that been sustained, we would now be seeing levels approaching those set out by Kate Barker in her report.

Obviously there has been a recession in the meantime. It has hit the world-it has hit this country and everywhere else-but given that situation, we want to see policies that will improve prospects rather than make things worse. The problem is that the present Government have managed to destabilise every part of the housing market. House builders are in shock because of the ill-considered planning changes. The private rented sector
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is in difficulty. Landlords are worried about the proposed changes to housing benefit. The social housing sector has been pulverised by the Government's proposal to remove security of tenure and to jack up rents to near market levels. That has created a serious problem of anxiety and lack of confidence in all sectors of the market. Not surprisingly, as the hon. Gentleman highlighted, there is therefore a problem with shortage of supply. That is precisely what is driving rent levels.

Mr Burley: Will the right hon. Gentleman give way?

Mr Raynsford: No. I have given way once, and I must make a little more progress.

All hon. Members should realise that the Government's hope that the changes will lead to a reduction in rents is delusional. It will not happen, and the consequence will be that many people who depend on access to private rented housing, and on a degree of housing benefit to support it-many of them are in low-paid work-will find it harder and harder to compete in an increasingly tough market. I am afraid that the Government are making things worse.

Simon Hughes: One factor over the past 13 years that affected supply was the number of right-to-buy applications exercised by tenants. Does the right hon. Gentleman support a discretion for local councils to decide whether to allow the right to buy? That has become the policy throughout Wales.

Mr Raynsford: The hon. Gentleman is going wide of the subject. The right to buy now has a relatively minor influence on the supply of housing, because most people in social rented housing are on incomes that make it impossible for them to buy. I would not change the current rules. I think it is right to have an option for people to buy, but in the current market there will not be many who take that up. I want the focus to be on securing a good supply of rented accommodation through social and private providers at rents that people can afford, supported by a proper benefit system.

We know that a substantial number of local housing allowance recipients are in properties where the rent is higher than the LHA. I have quoted the answer given by the Minister of State, Department for Work and Pensions, the hon. Member for Thornbury and Yate (Steve Webb), earlier this month that 48% of LHA recipients had to meet a shortfall because their rent was higher than the LHA. It is absurd for the Government to argue that the LHA is driving increases in rent, when the evidence that I quoted from the Evening Standard shows that it is the private market and the huge demand in the private market that is driving the increase. A very high proportion of LHA recipients will find it increasingly hard to compete, because their LHA is already below the rent that they are paying.

Steve Webb: Will the right hon. Gentleman give way?

Mr Raynsford: No. I will not give way because I have very little time left. The Minister should remember that private tenants who are dependent on housing benefit may find that they are priced out of the market as a result of the Government's policies. I am surprised that he and his party are prepared to countenance that.

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The hard questions that Ministers must answer-they have not done so-is simply: where will the tens, and perhaps hundreds, of thousands of LHA recipients go when their allowance is cut to a level that makes it impossible for them to make up the shortfall, and their landlord declines to reduce the rent?

Steve Webb: The right hon. Gentleman cited a £500 rent on a four-bedroom property-he quoted that from a newspaper-which is above our cap. Is it his policy that taxpayers should pay someone £500 for a four-bedroom property?

Mr Raynsford: No, it is not, and the point has already been made that that is not a housing benefit letting; it is a market letting being driven by the market. The Minister finds that difficult to understand because of his extraordinary prejudice that the local housing allowance is somehow driving the increase. I would have thought that he understood that, because he has some grasp of economics. He should also understand the cumulative effect of a series of such changes: not just the cap, not just the local housing allowance, but the change in non-dependant deductions, the restriction of the entitlement of social housing tenants of working age who are deemed to occupy larger accommodation than they need, the extension of the shared room rate to single applicants aged 35-the hon. Member for Cardiff Central (Jenny Willott) raised that anxiety-the change to the uprating formula using the consumer prices index rather than the retail prices index, the 10% cut in benefits for those on jobseeker's allowance for more than a year, and the overall cap on benefit entitlement. Cumulatively, those changes will have a devastating effect. Why has the Minister, with his distinguished background in social policy, not insisted on proper appraisals of the cumulative impact, and the impact over a period, of all the changes, which will have dire consequences for many people on very low incomes?

This is not evidence-based policy making; it is faith-based policy making, using assumptions that most of the commentators in the outside world who have a real understanding of these things believe to be seriously flawed. I put it to the Minister that unless the Government can give us evidence that their policy will reduce rents in the private sector-for which there is not a shred of convincing evidence-and that the cumulative impact of the changes will not have dire consequences for many vulnerable people, the only decent thing for them to do is to withdraw their package and say that they will look again at the measures and discuss with the Opposition agreed arrangements to deal with abuses of the system without causing vulnerable people to suffer. If they do that, they will have our support. If they do not, I hope that all hon. Members with open minds will vote for the motion tonight.

5.51 pm

James Wharton (Stockton South) (Con): I disagree with much of what the right hon. Member for Greenwich and Woolwich (Mr Raynsford) said, but he made one key observation that many Opposition Members would do well to heed. He referred to the legacy that the previous Labour Government inherited from the Conservatives, and many Labour Members forget the context in which so many of the decisions that the new Government are now taking must be understood-namely, the terrible financial situation that we inherited from Labour. I do
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not intend to dwell for too long on the national debt that is approaching £1 trillion, the deficit of £150 billion, or on the fact that we are paying more than £40 billion a year in interest, which is £120 million a day. That is more than we are paying for either our police or our universities.

Mr Russell Brown (Dumfries and Galloway) (Lab): Does the hon. Gentleman acknowledge that, when the Labour Government came to power in 1997, we had to pay more to service the debt based on borrowing to pay for tax rebates than the cost of defence and transport put together?

James Wharton: The hon. Gentleman is right to voice his concern about any level of Government debt, and I entirely understand the historic context in which the new Labour Government found themselves, and the one in which we find ourselves today. It is important, however, that we do not spend all our time looking back. We must look forward and consider what the Government are doing to address the challenges that we face, and specifically address the issue of housing benefit, which is just one piece of that much larger jigsaw.

Housing benefit today costs about £21 billion a year, and we have heard about the trend of housing benefit costs in recent years. Between 2000 and 2007, it increased by about 25%, and, in the past five years, it increased by about 50%. The shadow Secretary of State mentioned the difficult times during the worst of the recession when it was increasing at its greatest rate. That was true, and we cannot take those times as typical and project them forward, but we can identify a clear long-term trend of housing benefit costs increasing unsustainably and putting a burden on the Exchequer that cannot be maintained in this day and age. The Government therefore have to make some tough choices.

A word that we frequently hear on both sides of the House, in different contexts, is "fairness". We are asked what it means to be fair. Opposition Members appear to dwell on outputs, rather than giving consideration, as is correct when considering any matter of fairness, to what people put in-that is, to inputs and outcomes. It is important to look at the proposed changes to housing benefit in the context of the national financial situation, and of the need for real fairness that takes proper account of what the Government can do to help people out of poverty and into work, and to take away the benefit traps that hold people back in poverty and on housing benefit. As my hon. Friend the Member for North East Hertfordshire (Mr Heald) said, housing benefit is one of the very worst benefits when it comes to encouraging people and helping to make work pay, because of the very steep rate at which it is withdrawn.

Ms Buck: The hon. Gentleman mentioned the impact of housing benefit during the recession. Does he accept that 250,000 households claimed housing benefit during the period between 2008 and 2010 because their earnings dropped? Does that not show that housing benefit has a critical role to play in sustaining people, both in work and in their homes, during difficult times?

James Wharton: The hon. Lady is quite right. That is why nobody on either side of the House would ever propose to do away with it. It is an important part of the welfare state in this country, but that does not mean that spending on housing benefit should be allowed to
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escalate out of control indefinitely. That is why the Government are introducing measures to bring it under control and to ensure that people are properly incentivised to find work, to earn and to contribute successfully to our economy. The hon. Lady is right to say that housing benefit is important, however; that is why it is being reformed in a way that will secure its sustainable future.

Mr Chuka Umunna (Streatham) (Lab): Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

James Wharton: I will not give way again.

In the context of the understanding of fairness, let us look at what the Government are doing. We have heard talk about the cap, and it is abundantly obvious that it is not fair for a family or an individual to be able to claim more in housing benefit than an average family takes home in earnings in any given week, month or year. If we set the cap at £20,000 a year, that will still be a very high level. That is the equivalent of earning just over £26,000 a year, as that is what someone would need to earn to have the income to pay that amount of rent without claiming housing benefit support. That is more than the average wage of my constituents, and more than the average wage in the north-east generally. It is also more than the average wage in many of the constituencies of Members on both sides of the House. We cannot expect people who work hard but do not earn large sums of money to pay tax to subsidise individuals and families who are unable to work, for whatever reason, to live in homes that those taxpayers themselves could not afford.

This is an important issue, but there are many other measures involved. The shadow Secretary of State asked whether it was fair to use the 30th percentile to set the level at which housing benefit would be paid in any given area. The Department's research has shown that, in any given area, just over 30% of properties would be available within that price band, and I suggest that that makes it abundantly obvious that this is not an unreasonable step. Given the difficult financial situation in which we find ourselves, this is a way of finding some of the necessary savings while ensuring that those who need help will still get it. It will ensure that support will be there for those who will benefit from it most, while not unfairly disadvantaging the people who work hard to pay their taxes to enable this to happen. It is important to look at these points in the round, and in the context of the world in which we live today.

Many Opposition Members are not keen to talk about discretionary housing payments because, for many of those who hit particular hardship, such payments will increase. This will help individuals who are in danger of losing their homes, who fall through the gaps between policies or who find themselves in difficulty through no fault of their own. The Government are increasing the provision to £140 million over five years to ensure that, when people are in particular need or when their circumstances are particularly difficult, help is there to ensure that they can stay in their homes and communities. People should not be made homeless by the steps that are being taken, and the Government are taking steps to ensure that that does not happen.

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Another measure that Opposition Members often overlook relates to overnight carers. At the moment, the fact that someone has an overnight carer, because they have a disability or for any other reason, is not accounted for when calculating the amount of housing benefit they receive. The Government will change that, and 15,000 people who currently have overnight carers but are not entitled to have the need to provide accommodation for them taken into account in their housing benefit allowance will be better off as a direct result. Their needs will specifically be catered for in a way that, disgracefully, has not been the case for many years.

Lots of changes are taking place in housing benefit, as well as right across the Department for Work and Pensions and other Departments. Opposition Members are right to raise concerns, when they have them, and to call for a debate when that is appropriate. When I look at the motion today, however, I find it most striking that they have suggested no alternatives. This is not an Opposition who are here to put forward alternative proposals or an alternative plan to deal with some of the problems we face. It is an Opposition who are opposing for opposition's sake.

Matthew Hancock: I compliment my hon. Friend on his extremely fluent speech. In talking about the tone of this debate, does he agree that it is important not to make scaremongering comments that make people ill at ease when the changes being made are very important to get a grip on this particular budget?

James Wharton: As ever, my hon. Friend makes an excellent point. The point has been raised a few times already-that the tone of this debate in public and in the media has not necessarily been as it should. When we are talking about people's homes, people's allowances and changes that will affect people's lives, it is incumbent on all of us to ensure that we do so in a careful, measured and sensible way.

Gavin Williamson (South Staffordshire) (Con): I am not sure whether my hon. Friend's experience has been the same as mine, but many people I talk to in my constituency think that the proposals being put forward are sensible, logical and should have been made an awful long time ago.

James Wharton: I thank my hon. Friend for another excellent intervention. He is, of course, right about how right-thinking people look at some of these measures-I single out the cap of £20,000 on the maximum amount of housing benefit that can be claimed. As I said at the beginning of my speech, this is equivalent to earning more than £26,000 a year. These are reasonable steps taken to deal with a very real problem. If Opposition Members wish to continue to oppose what the Government are doing, I urge them to come up with proposals and solutions of their own, so that we can have a properly informed debate-rather than mudslinging, calling names and worrying all the people who rely on Members from all parties to represent them and do the right thing.

6.1 pm

Miss Anne Begg (Aberdeen South) (Lab): I am grateful for the opportunity to contribute to the debate. I am keen to make sure that we do not get bogged down in a
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debate about what is happening to the caps in London, which has been the tenor of the debate in much of the media and, indeed, here today. I understand why my hon. Friends representing London constituencies feel angry and annoyed about the impact of the changes on their constituents, but I would like to look further afield at the impact across the country.

The difficulty with the emphasis on the caps that might apply only in London is that we need to acknowledge that the real cap is the 30 percentile that will apply in each of the broad rental area markets. It is not right to look at four-bedroom houses that can be had for less than £400 a week in an individual constituency and then say, as did the hon. Member for Ealing Central and Acton (Angie Bray), "Well, that's fine; you can get that if you are on housing benefit". That is simply not the case.

We already know, as alluded to by my right hon. Friend the Member for Greenwich and Woolwich (Mr Raynsford), that even at the present 50 percentile level many of our constituents still have to supplement their housing benefit to pay the rent. We know that people, even today, before any of these changes come into place, have to spend perhaps £10 or £20 out of their benefit to pay their rent. We know that because on a Select Committee visit, we encountered an elderly gentleman at a citizen's advice bureau who had found it very difficult to get a house or a one-bedroom flat within the money afforded under the BRMA-broad rental market areas-level at 50 percentile. He already had to spend £10 a week out of his pension credit to supplement his rent.

Another point worth noting is that the people who receive housing benefit are not all of working age, so the Government's purpose of incentivising work does not apply to them. What incentive does an old-age pensioner have if they stand to lose perhaps a considerable portion of their rent, and what incentive is there for such a pensioner to have to move home in order to find an affordable rent?

I hope that we can start to concentrate on some of the people who are not in the percentages quoted-the people who can move and can find somewhere affordable. For every 50% of the people who can move, there are 50% who cannot move; for every 50% who can easily find affordable rented accommodation, there are 50% who cannot. As my right hon. Friend the Member for Paisley and Renfrewshire South (Mr Alexander) said, only £65 million of the savings on the housing benefit budget will come from the cap, which will apply predominantly in London, whereas the full savings amount to £1.8 billion.

I would like us to consider what is happening in Aberdeen-not a typical place and probably an exception, but it might help to highlight some important issues. Only 6% of housing benefit claimants-910-in Aberdeen are in the private rented sector. Of them, only 370 of them-about a third-are likely to be worse off. Moreover, only 9% in the private rented sector actually claim housing benefit. If we accept what the Government are saying, this 9% should find it easy to find a house within the 30 percentile-obviously, because only 9% of them are trying to find it. That appears to be a no-brainer, but that is not the case. The reason is that they are competing with people who are already on low pay but perhaps do not have housing benefit and are trying to find somewhere else to live.

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We also know that there is a housing shortage in Aberdeen, as there is in many other places, so many landlords will not rent for housing benefit. That might not be true elsewhere, but it is true in an area where we have a buoyant housing market. If only 6% of housing benefit claimants are in the private rented sector, it cannot be true that it is housing benefit rates that are pushing up the rents in Aberdeen. We know that rents are going up. It cannot be true that landlords will therefore reduce their rent because we know that there are plenty of other people who will be willing to take these houses if the housing benefit person cannot afford them. There will be areas in which the market will not operate effectively, as my 'hon. Friend'-I call him that, because he is on the Select Committee with me-the hon. Member for North East Hertfordshire (Mr Heald) said, but although it may be true in some areas, it will definitely not be true in other areas that already have a buoyant market.

Lastly, even if we accept the Government's argument that landlords will reduce the rent, there will inevitably be a time-lag for all that to happen. I do not think that people will move all that often in Aberdeen. Constituents have come to see me because they cannot afford the deposit on their new house or they cannot afford their first month's rental or they cannot afford the bond that they are expected to find-I believe that applies just in Scotland. The cost of moving is difficult for people to meet. Landlords, however, will not reduce the rent initially; they will need to be persuaded in some way that they cannot get that rental anywhere else. In the meantime, individuals will have had to move at great cost and it might be difficult for them to find somewhere until the market adjusts. Even accepting the argument that the market will adjust, we are still looking at a six-month period in which people will be either forced to move or build up a huge amount of arrears. It is going to be difficult for this group of people to negotiate lower rents.

I have tried to show that there are issues beyond what is happening in London. Different areas can have different problems. There is no single solution that will have the same effect across the whole country. I hope that the Government will listen to that argument.

6.9 pm

Amber Rudd (Hastings and Rye) (Con): Fairness is a constantly recurring theme today, and fairness has been the dominant feature of this reforming Government's coalition agenda. I agree with my hon. Friend the Member for Stockton South (James Wharton) that we must also be fair to the people who pay the taxes that pay for the housing benefit and local housing allowance.

I know what I am talking about, because my constituents earn extremely low wages. In the past 10 years the average wage in Hastings, which used to be £30 below the average United Kingdom rent, has fallen to £100 below that figure. I know about low wages. The hon. Member for Glasgow North East (Mr Bain) spoke of people who were vulnerable. People on low wages are also vulnerable, and I feel strongly that they should not be charged with paying the housing benefit of people who live in houses and in areas where those on low wages could not begin to live themselves.

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Caroline Flint (Don Valley) (Lab): Does the hon. Lady agree with councillors in Hastings who have expressed concern about the additional pressures that the Government's policies will impose on their local community, including additional costs for education and children's services?

Amber Rudd: I am grateful to the right hon. Lady for making that point, because it is exactly the one with which I am about to deal. Earlier in the debate, we heard about sensational articles in newspapers and unrealistic reporting. I am afraid that Hastings has been on the receiving end of quite a lot of that. I have spoken to the councillors who made those comments and to our director of housing, Andrew Palmer, who has done excellent work. I asked him how many London councils had made inquiries of him, and he said none. I asked him whether he had had an opportunity to speak to the people who run the bed-and-breakfast establishments that he very rarely uses-although he has had to do so occasionally-and to the landlords whom he uses for the purposes of the local housing allowance. He said that he had spoken to all of them, and that not one of them had received such an inquiry.

I strongly believe that we have been reading sensationalist reports in the newspapers. There is an apocalyptic vision of a group of Londoners arriving on the south coast, but it simply is not happening. I think it important to repeat that so that people do not become fearful. They do not have to believe what is said by the right hon. Member for Don Valley (Caroline Flint) about extra pressure on education establishments, because that is not happening at the moment.

We hope that rents will fall. Members will not be surprised to hear that I agree with much that has been said by Conservative Members about reducing rents. The right hon. Member for Greenwich and Woolwich (Mr Raynsford) spoke of the unrealistic aspect of falling house rents, and referred to an article in the Evening Standard that focused mainly on larger houses. In my constituency at least, between 80% and 90% of people who receive local housing allowance live in homes with one to two bedrooms. The larger house element does not feature so much, although it represents a large cost. I am told by Westminster council, whose representatives I have consulted, that house prices in its area are falling rather than rising.

Mr Raynsford: When the hon. Lady reads the record of the debate, she will see that among the quotations that I gave from the article in the Evening Standard was one from an agent who said that properties of all sizes were affected, from the largest to the smallest, and that all areas of London were affected.

Amber Rudd: I am interested to hear that London is affected. We will see the consequences, but at present I am receiving different answers and people are reaching different conclusions. It is not entirely clear how the private sector will respond, but one thing is entirely clear: we cannot continue with the cost as it is now.

Mr Heald: When the London councils gave evidence to the Select Committee, they said that 40% of landlords would cut their rents.

Amber Rudd: The 40% figure is totemic in this debate. As we know, 40% of private rented properties are used by the Department for Work and Pensions.

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Chris Ruane (Vale of Clwyd) (Lab): Like me, the hon. Lady represents a seaside town. If Kosovo-style clear-outs do take place in the inner cities- [Interruption.] It was Boris Johnson who used that phrase. If that does happen, it is logical to assume that people will go where there is cheap available accommodation: houses in multiple occupation in seaside towns such as the hon. Lady's and mine.

Amber Rudd: The hon. Gentleman obviously does not want to let the facts interfere with a good story. Some of the newspapers have taken the same view. However, he too should try to look at the facts. He should establish whether London councils are making such inquiries, and whether B-and-Bs are being booked up. There is absolutely no evidence of that. Rents are expected to fall, which will make things less costly for us all.

Ms Buck: My local authority, Westminster council, has written to me and to Ministers in the Department for Work and Pensions and the Department for Communities and Local Government, asking for changes in the homelessness legislation because of the potential impact of the cuts, and stating that it will expect substantial out-of-borough bookings for temporary accommodation if the proposals go ahead unamended.

Amber Rudd: That is an interesting comment, but I can tell the hon. Lady that I have spoken to the cabinet member in charge of Westminster council-which has the largest supply of houses at the top level above the cap-and she told me unequivocally that the council was not doing that.

Ms Buck: I have a letter.

Amber Rudd: I also have a letter. Perhaps we can exchange letters later, and see what the conclusion is.

It is impossible not to see these reforms of housing benefit outside the context of the overall attempt to carry out the reforms of the welfare system to which the Government are so committed. I commend to all Members a fascinating article in today's The Times by a former Labour Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, in which he draws strong parallels between our efforts to reform the welfare system and the proposals on which he had been working for the past few years, until the last two years or so, when he was unable to obtain any traction and had to resign. He spoke of the line that Government must tread between the poverty trap and the welfare trap. That is exactly what this Government are trying to do, but let me add that there is not just a welfare trap or a poverty trap. The welfare trap is a poverty trap in its own right. It is not a good place in which to be, but our efforts to reduce housing benefit and introduce a universal credit will start to change the present position and make a fairer society for us all.

Several hon. Members rose -

Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Lindsay Hoyle): Before I call the next speaker, I must inform the House that I am going to reduce the speaking time to seven minutes, because so many Members wish to contribute and I want to ensure that all of them can do so.

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6.17 pm

Bridget Phillipson (Houghton and Sunderland South) (Lab): Let me begin by referring the House to my declaration in the Register of Members' Financial Interests.

I am grateful to you, Mr Deputy Speaker, for calling me to speak in this important debate, and I am pleased to follow the hon. Member for Hastings and Rye (Amber Rudd), although I beg to differ with her interesting interpretation of the word "fairness".

The Government's £1.8 billion cuts in housing benefit will push the most vulnerable families in our society into poverty and debt. It has been estimated that up to 12,000 households in the north-east could be made homeless. The Government are using extreme examples to justify their wholesale swingeing cuts, but the simple truth is that most housing benefit recipients are low-income, hard-working families, pensioners, carers, and people with disabilities. The housing charity Shelter estimates that only one in eight housing benefit recipients is unemployed. We should not lose sight of the fact that housing benefit is also an in-work benefit. In fact, the average housing benefit award to private sector tenants in Sunderland is just £93 per week, and for social tenants it is even less: £69 per week.

What concerns me most is that the cuts in housing benefit will affect not only hard-working, low-income families, but pensioners. In Sunderland alone, more than 20,000 housing benefit recipients are over 60. Those people have contributed to society throughout their lives, but in return-when they need help from the state at the time when they are at their most vulnerable-their security is threatened, and they are treated as mere statistics.

Steve Webb: I am sure that the hon. Lady does not wish to alarm pensioners in her constituency. The figures that she has given relate to housing benefit, which applies overwhelmingly to social tenants who will not be affected by this change. Will she correct the record?

Bridget Phillipson: What I will say is that many older tenants will move into different tenancies at different points, and will be affected by the changes that the Government are introducing. Many older people will, at times, vacate social homes and move into the private sector as their needs require, and may be affected by the Government's changes. The only alarm being caused is coming from the Government Benches. I hope that the Minister will think again about some of these measures.

The Chartered Institute of Housing summed things up best when it stated that the Government's motive

This is not a genuine attempt to reform housing benefit and introduce a better system in its place; this is a Treasury-driven hit on the poorest and most vulnerable in our society.

Kwasi Kwarteng (Spelthorne) (Con): I am grateful to the hon. Lady for giving way. The House is unclear about Labour's position on the cap. Labour Members have accepted that there is a need for public spending restraint, but Government Members want to know whether they think the cap is fair or not.

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Bridget Phillipson: I respectfully suggest to the hon. Gentleman that had he been here earlier, he would have heard some of the arguments articulated by my right hon. Friend the shadow Secretary of State. I also respectfully suggest that I am not referring to the cap. That is not the issue that I am discussing in relation to Sunderland; I am discussing the changes in respect of the 10% and the 30th percentile. That is my concern, and that is why this debate has to be on issues broader than London. I understand the concerns of my hon. Friends with London constituencies about the impact there, but the impact it will have in Sunderland will be different.

On average, claimants of local housing allowance in the north-east will see a cut of about 10% a week, or £468 a year, in what they receive. That will have a massive effect in the region, and in Sunderland it will affect more than 4,500 households. Furthermore, those out of work on jobseeker's allowance for more than one year will be hit particularly hard, with a cut of 10% in their housing benefit. Currently, 2,500 of my constituents are claiming jobseeker's allowance in an area of ongoing deprivation, where jobs are increasingly hard to come by. That will simply drive people into further poverty and drive up homelessness at a time when, no matter how hard people try, it is often difficult to find a job.

Sunderland city council prevented homelessness for 157 households in 2009-10, helping people to find accommodation, often in the private sector. Overall, the changes made in the comprehensive spending review will make it even harder for Sunderland city council to prevent homelessness. In the long term, the use of temporary bed-and-breakfast accommodation will inevitably drive up housing costs for local councils and have massive social consequences.

Changes in the calculation of housing benefit-pegging it to the consumer prices index-will lead to a dramatic rise in rent arrears, contributing to increased use of temporary accommodation and increased homelessness. It is not yet clear to me whether those who fall into arrears because of the cuts will be deemed to have made themselves intentionally homeless, which would mean that councils would not have a duty to house them. I would be grateful for some clarity from the Government on that issue.

Before I was elected, I managed a refuge for women and children fleeing domestic violence, and the city council supported these homeless families and got them rehoused, often in the private sector. The women would often pay a small top-up to their housing benefit, often to be near supportive family who could help with child care so that they could undertake training or return to the workplace. Such women will be doubly hit, and at the point when they are trying to get their lives back on track.

It is clear that the Government have failed to come up with an acceptable plan for housing benefit. They fail to recognise the long-term solutions to the underlying causes, and they are certainly not progressive.

Jim Shannon (Strangford) (DUP): Does the hon. Lady agree that for a great many people the purpose of housing benefit is to get them out of low-income housing? The changes that the coalition Government are proposing will keep those people in poverty and low-income housing for the rest of their lives. That is my concern. Does the hon. Lady share it?

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Bridget Phillipson: I do. It is clear that the changes will have a huge impact not only in England, but in the hon. Gentleman's constituency.

While more social homes need to be built, the coalition is cutting investment and scrapping regional housing targets. When people are crying out for help on unemployment, the coalition Government are set to cut 23,000 public sector jobs in the north-east alone. Until we tackle unemployment and until the Government bring forward a credible growth strategy, the housing benefit bill will not come down. In the north-east, the situation has not been helped by the scrapping of One North East and the lack of a regional industrial strategy.

Finally, when we need a system to stop unscrupulous private sector landlords from profiteering from the local housing allowance, the coalition Government do not even consider it. Instead, they focus their programme of cuts on the defenceless, the elderly and the least well off in our society. That cannot be allowed to happen. Labour Members all agree that there is a need to reform the current system of housing benefit-but not at such a cost, and not with the plan that the Government are implementing with such ill regard for the consequences.

I oppose these rushed, punitive and divisive measures. I will do what it takes to protect the low paid and the most vulnerable people across the country, who rely on housing benefit, and I encourage colleagues on both sides of the House to do so too.

6.25 pm

Bob Russell (Colchester) (LD): The debate so far has made only fleeting reference to child poverty. The previous Government left 3.9 million children living below the official poverty line, so we need to think long and hard about whether this Government's measures are going to make that figure worse.

According to Shelter, the average loss per family in my constituency will be about £9 a week. For a low-income family, that £9 now has to compete; if the rent is not paid, and a family lose their home, they are, in law, deemed to be intentionally homeless. Whatever faults there are in this country, one thing is for sure: the children of this country are not responsible. They must not be allowed to lose their homes. For that family in my constituency, having to find another £9 a week for rent means £9 a week less on food, clothing, shoes and utility bills. We know that fuel poverty has an adverse impact on low-income families. Others have mentioned pensioners and their points have been well made, but I am going to concentrate on the families.

The loss of £9 from such a family's disposable income will mean that the local economy will lose out. That could affect what else is going on. Incidentally, I have come up with a novel saving for middle-England households. It is not compulsory to buy the Daily Mail or The Mail on Sunday, and not buying them will produce a saving of about £500 a year to a middle-England household. I recommend it.

The Local Government Association has kindly provided the following suggestion:

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The LGA has suggested that local authorities should have more flexible powers, so that they can work with local landlords to negotiate rents downwards. That would fit in with the Secretary of State's view that the object of the exercise is not to penalise families, but to force rents down. In a spirit of collaboration, coalition and fairness, I think that the Government should take equal measures-put a cap on the rent as well as on the housing benefit.

The problem is that we have had 30 years of successive Government failures to provide sufficient housing for rent. The last Government were as guilty as the previous Conservative Government, building fewer than 7,000 council houses in 13 years; even the dastardly Thatcher Government managed to build more than half a million. Indeed, the last Labour Government sold half a million council dwellings. I intervened earlier on the question of supply and demand because of the simple fact that for 30 years supply has not matched demand.

Mr Betts: I welcome the hon. Gentleman's commitment to increasing the number of social houses built, but does he accept that under the comprehensive spending review the expenditure plans for new social homes have been cut in half? The only such homes that will be built on the current tenures and rents will be those to which the previous Government committed? All new homes built after that will cost 80% of market rents, and that building will be paid for by increasing the rents on re-let tenancies to that level as well, so this Government are committing to no new social housing at all.

Bob Russell: I was praying for an Opposition intervention because it gives me an opportunity to pick up and wave these pages containing the more than 50 questions on council housing that I have put in the last decade, including to former Prime Minister Blair, his successor and former Deputy Prime Minister Prescott, all of whom failed the Labour party. We should contrast what the last Labour Government did with what the real Labour Government of 1945 led by Clement Attlee did in the aftermath of the war.

Chris Ruane: I concur entirely with the hon. Gentleman. In my constituency I visited a lady who had an 18-month-old child and who lived in a house of multiple occupation. She had one bedroom. That cost £85 a week in housing benefit, topped up with £20 a week from her own dole money. That is £105 a week for a one-bedroom rat hole, whereas the council charges £60 for a three-bedroom council house with both a front and back garden. It makes both economic and moral sense to spend money on building new council houses and social housing, and that would also penalise the Rachman landlords and reward the local authorities and social landlords.

Bob Russell: I agree with most of that; and, of course, if the last Labour Government had taken note of what I said in those 50-plus parliamentary questions-if two successive Prime Ministers and a Deputy Prime Minister had listened-we would not be in the pickle we are in now. I might add that all of us know of former council houses in our constituencies that were sold and are now being let out at higher rents than those for the council house next door, and where the housing benefit tops that up. The coalition Government should address that.

I know that Members are fascinated by what I have just said, and they can read the 2003 speech I made in Westminster Hall on the subject of council houses. Again, had the Labour Government listened and taken note seven years ago, things would have been much better.

For most people, the aspiration to home ownership cannot now be fulfilled. The resumption of council house building would have the twin outcome of supplying good quality houses for families to rent and lessening demand in the house buying market. There would be another bonus too: it would give a boost to employment in the building industry.

The conclusion of my speech is aimed at my coalition partners. When I was leader of Colchester borough council between 1987 and 1991, I attended a meeting of the Essex branch of the Association of District Councils at which I told the then Member for South Colchester and Maldon, now Lord Wakeham, that a combination of the large-scale sale of council houses and a failure to build replacement houses would result in thousands of people being forced into the property owning market who would not otherwise have been, and that the demand for lower priced houses would therefore be greater than the availability, and that that would lead to an increase in house prices throughout the housing market. I suggested that that policy did not make economic sense, and that it was not fair on those who would be deprived of a decent home in which to live. I have been proved right, but, tragically, the problem is considerably worse than I ever thought it would be.

For the homeless and those in accommodation that is less than ideal for their needs, there is no such thing as the dream of being part of the property owning democracy. Instead, there is the 24-hour nightmare of housing despair. That is particularly the case for the children involved. Big cities, towns and villages all have residents who are suffering because of the lack of council houses. In rural areas, young people are being forced to leave the villages in which they were born, and where their families may have lived for generations, because there is no housing for them, or none that they can afford.

I urge the coalition Government to think again. They are right to tackle the higher rents, but that has to be done with fairness. At the moment, however, their proposals are being aimed only at the tenants, and I am particularly concerned about the children of the families who will be affected.

6.35 pm

Mr Clive Betts (Sheffield South East) (Lab): From what the hon. Member for Colchester (Bob Russell) has said, I take it that he will be voting with us in favour of this motion, because it seems that that is where his heart lies, if nothing else.

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The issue as presented by the Government is that we have a problem with housing benefit. Two explanations have been given for that. One is that local housing allowance levels are pushing up rents, and my right hon. Friend the Member for Greenwich and Woolwich (Mr Raynsford) dealt with that very well. The other is that housing rents and housing benefit levels are rising because there is a shortage of houses in this country. The hon. Member for Colchester said that that was the case, and I have a lot of sympathy with his point about the need for more social housing.

Let us look at Government policies on housing provision to deal with this fundamental problem. The hon. Gentleman mentioned social housing provision, but he ought to understand that this Government's policy is to withdraw from social housing provision, and that is what they are doing. Under the comprehensive spending review, the budget for new social housing is being cut in half, and the half that is left will simply fund the houses to which the previous Government were committed, which is about half of the 150,000 target. Where will the other 75,000 come from? The answer is that there is an assumption that social housing landlords will raise the rents on new lettings to 80% of market rents and that that increase in rental income will then fund the building of these extra 75,000 so-called social houses. They will not be social houses, however; they will be houses at 80% of market rents-or at intermediate rents, if we prefer that term. Effectively, therefore, the Government are withdrawing from the provision of social housing.

I know some Liberal Democrat Members will not agree that that is what the Government are doing-indeed, the Lib Dem Communities and Local Government Minister, the hon. Member for Hazel Grove (Andrew Stunell), said exactly the opposite in a recent Westminster Hall debate-but that is the policy. If it is not what they intend to do, the Minister who is currently in the Chamber should stand up and say so.

As the Government claim that their key policy is to reduce housing benefit costs, they must also explain how the two bits of their agenda join up. If getting housing benefit costs down is the right thing to do, will there not be an increase in housing benefit costs from these new 80% market rents they are going to introduce, and how much will they increase by? I have asked that question, but no one can answer it. Do the Government not know or have they not done the figures? Is this another consequence of the impact assessment that they have not done? The Minister has done a lot of jumping up and down in the Chamber today, but he is surprisingly silent and sedentary at present.

That is another major question to which we need an answer. Why are the Government intent on pushing up rents in the social housing sector? What will be the housing benefit costs of that, and is the fact that there will be such costs not an inherent and fundamental contradiction in the Government's policy?

Mr Heald: I do not think the hon. Gentleman understands the scope of the ambition of this Government. They want to get people back to work. They do not want there to be 3 million homes where nobody works and everybody is on housing benefit. They want to change that, and that is how the costs of welfare will come down.

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Mr Betts: I thank the hon. Gentleman for that helpful intervention. I am not sure how putting 1.6 million people in the dole queue is part of a grand strategy to get people back to work. At some point, somebody will add those bits of the grand strategy up and explain how they connect together.

On the lack of joined-up thinking, we have been taking evidence in the Select Committee on Communities and Local Government about the impact of the Government's policy of abolishing the regional spatial strategies. Some people have told us that that is a good thing to do, others have been more critical of the inherent aim of Government policy, and some have said that eventually we will get policies in the localism Bill that explain the Government's long-term strategy. However, almost every witness has said that in the meantime there is a complete vacuum in housing planning policy. The National Housing Federation has commissioned detailed research and it has been estimated that 160,000 planning permissions that would have been given under the previous planning regime have not now been given. That means that fewer houses will be built when eventually the housing market returns.

Richard Graham (Gloucester) (Con): The hon. Gentleman mentioned joined-up thinking. Does he feel it is fair that so many families who are not working and who are not disabled receive more in benefits than families who are working and are on the average national salary or less? What would he say to my constituents about the joined-up thinking of the past 13 years that allowed that situation to continue unchanged for so long?

Mr Betts: As Labour Members have clearly said, those on the Government Benches are involved in a complete misthinking about the fact that not everyone on housing benefit is unemployed; many people on housing benefit are on low wages and they will be affected by these changes too. There is a real issue to address about disincentives to work and tapers in the housing benefit system. I would appreciate those tapers being flatter than they have been or are now, but we all have to recognise that if the steepness of housing benefit tapers, or of any other benefit tapers, is reduced, the cost is increased. That is a problem and I look forward to seeing how the Secretary of State will solve it when he introduces his universal credit.

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