The Future of Higher Education
Written submission from Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS)
1. Summary
1.1 As the UK’s higher education admissions service, UCAS welcomes the opportunity to submit evidence to the inquiry. Our evidence focuses on a number of issues related to admissions, particularly issues raised by the Browne Review and subsequent announcements regarding higher education finance and student support. Specifically this submission focuses on:
·
admissions to higher education: proposals in the Browne Review for controlling access to student finance
·
provision of information, advice and guidance to prospective students
·
demographic changes, cross-border issues and impacts
·
UCAS Qualifications Information Review (QIR)
·
UCAS Admissions Process Review (APR)
2. UCAS
2.1 UCAS is the UK’s provider of shared admissions services for higher education. Our mission is to help applicants to HE make the right choices for the right reasons with the right outcomes, and to benefit our members through the provision of shared services.
2.2 As a charity UCAS provides information, advice and guidance; course information; entry requirements; and application services to over 688,000 applicants to 305 universities and colleges each year. Although this service primarily covers admissions to full-time undergraduate programmes, UCAS also provides some services for part-time provision, post-graduate courses, initial teacher training and a specialist conservatoires admissions service. Other UCAS activities include:
·
publication of regular data and reports on each application cycle
·
subscriptions to a variety of analytical services which provide higher education institutions, schools and colleges with the ability to track applications effectively in real time, and to understand applicant behaviour and the HE market
·
contract and collaborative research, and licensing of data for research and analysis
·
support for the introduction of new qualifications
·
training for schools, colleges and advisers on HE admissions
·
supplier of management tools to local authorities to support 14-19 education
2.3 UCAS works closely with HEIs, schools and colleges, governments, funding bodies, regulators, qualification awarding bodies, and others to provide the products and services needed for effective admissions to higher education across the UK.
3.
Admissions to Higher Education: proposals in the Browne Review for using the UCAS Tariff to control access to student finance
3.1 The Browne Review proposed the expansion of HE provision in England, with this expansion being driven by student choice. To enable the Government to maintain control over numbers of entrants to HE – and hence student finance - the Review proposed that the UCAS Tariff should be used to set a minimum entry standard to determine entitlement to student finance for learning and living costs at English institutions.
3.2 UCAS has undertaken analysis work to evaluate the likely impact on applicants and HE institutions using the current Tariff as a proxy attainment hurdle. This indicates that the Browne Review model could disproportionately affect:
·
older applicants
·
those from areas with lowest HE
·
international
·
applicants who hold qualifications not currently covered by the applicants who hold qualifications which attract low Tariff points – ultimately impacting on WP
·
applicants whose suitability is determined by additional selection mechanisms alongside qualification achievements, such as interviews or admissions tests
·
certain subject areas that tend to have lower average Tariff entry qualifications e.g. creative arts and design, technologies, veterinary science and related subjects
·
institutions that attract applicants with low or no Tariff points. This is of particular importance given that non-traditional qualifications are less likely to have been awarded Tariff points
3.3 The proposal to set a minimum entry Tariff in January each year would inevitably lead to uncertainties because many applicants have Tariff-eligible qualification results pending at that time. For instance, amongst young UK applicants offering A-levels for entry the large majority (over 80 per cent) are recorded as having at least one A-level where the result is predicted rather than known at the January closing date.
3.4 UCAS has briefed BIS on this analysis and the potential risks associated with adopting this approach.
3.5 Any proposal to use the UCAS Tariff or a sub-set of qualifications held by applicants in order to manage student numbers or access to student finance will necessarily face similar difficulties. It should also be noted that the current Tariff methodology was designed over a decade ago to meet the needs of a much simpler qualifications environment. As such, UCAS is currently undertaking a review to understand better the needs that HE providers and learners have for qualifications information and how these needs can be addressed in an effective and efficient manner (see section on the Qualifications Information Review below).
4.
Provision of information, advice and guidance to prospective students
4.1
Providing prospective students with clear, effective, and timely information, advice and guidance (IAG) is at the heart of UCAS’s mission to help those applying to higher education to make appropriate choices about what, where and how to study i
.
e
.
making the right choices, for the right reasons with the right outcomes.
4.2
As such UCAS provides IAG to learners through its web services, publications and training for schools, colleges and advisers on HE admissions e
.
g
.
UCAS Course Search, providing data for Unistats, and schools conventions. We are w
orking with HEFCE
host the new Key Information Set of data which all HE providers will need to make available to applicants, and we are developing a range of improved IAG services, including a "Preparing the Professional" scheme, which aim to give many more school liaison officers and outreach officers access to accurate, up-to-date information on HE entry. UCAS is also working with a number of partners to explore how more data and information, particularly about qualifications, can be made available to potential applicants.
4.3 UCAS believes that it is desirable that learners applying to UK universities and colleges should have access to the full range of study options when considering which courses and institutions best meet their needs. Financial considerations are important part of this decision-making process and it essential that all applicants understand the financial commitments they are making before submitting their UCAS applications.
4.4 For entry in 2012 the picture is complicated by changes in HE funding and student support arrangements in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. This is discussed below.
4.5
For the vast majority of prospective students UCAS is a first point of call for information about higher education courses and fees. We are conscious that young learners typically start discussing their HE choices with teachers and advisers towards the end of Year 12 and would like to be able to provide young learners with information about course fees they break up for the summer. The 2011 end of term dates are 1 July in Scotland and Northern Ireland and 22 July in England and Wales.
4.6
We are therefore working closely with schools, advisers, institutions, and OFFA to manage expectations about when fees information will be available in the UCAS Course Search. It is our aim to release verified fees information on a single day in July. We are plan to do this on the same day that OFFA publishes the approved access agreements, or as close to this date as is feasible. Our decision to publish information on a single day comes in response to advice from the NUS and SPA, and they have welcomed our approach. We are also working closely with the governments and funding bodies in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to ensure that we are also able to provide fees information from institutions across the UK at the same time.
4.7 It will be essential that fees information is available before younger learners return to school or college in August or September. Applicants will be able to submit their applications from September 2011. The UCAS deadline for applications for medicine, dentistry and veterinary science courses, as well as for applications to the Universities of Oxford and Cambridge, is 15 October 2011. The UCAS deadline for the majority of other courses is 15 January 2012.
4.8
UCAS has constructed a comprehensive communications plan in order to ensure that relevant and accurate information is communicated to the relevant individuals and stakeholders at the appropriate time. The purpose of this plan is to ensure that any confusion or mismanagement regarding fee information is avoided.
5.
Demographic changes, cross border issues and impacts
5.1
The average age of UK domiciled UCAS applicants increased over the last five years from 20.75 on 2006 to 21.
30 in 2010 (Appendix 1, Figure 1
). Whilst th
e
majority of UCAS applicants are 20 years and under (77.75% in 2010), this is an important trend. Furthermore, given the projected decline of 18–20
year olds within the UK population
statistics analysed by UUK
suggest that the number of UCAS applicants between the ages of 18 and 20 will decrease to its lowest point in 2020 with a 14.5% change from 2009 to 2020.
5.2 The increasing average age of UCAS applicants and the future decline of the number of 18-20 year olds in the UK population are combining to suggest that the proportion of HE applicants aged 20 years or under will decrease. (See Appendix 1, Tables 1 & 2). UCAS and other parts of the HE sector are therefore increasingly focusing their information, advice and guidance at more mature applicants.
5.3. Applications to HE for entry in 2012 and applicant behaviour are likely to be affected by changes in HE funding and student support arrangements in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland:
·
The Westminster government has decided to enable institutions in England to charge up to £6,000 per annum for their courses and in exceptional circumstances up to £9,000 subject to meeting new criteria on access
·
The Welsh Assembly Government has indicated that Welsh institutions may increase tuition fees in line with English ones, but that the Assembly will pay the difference between the tuition fee charged by institution and the current maximum tuition fee for Welsh-domiciled students studying at English or Welsh institutions (£3,375 at current prices). The same subsidy will also apply to EU students studying at Welsh institutions. Welsh institutions wishing to charge more than £4,000 will need to produce a fee agreement for approval by HEFCW showing a commitment to WP and strategic initiatives in Wales
·
Whilst HE funding and student support provisions are clear for English and Welsh institutions, there remains a lack of clarity in relation to Scotland and Northern Ireland with fee levels likely to be affected by the outcomes of elections on 5 May 2011
5.4 Any early changes in behaviour detected from UCAS data is a significant decrease in the number of individuals applying to HE in 2011 who are requesting deferred entry to 2012 (Appendix 1, Figure 1). This will in part be due to institutions accepting fewer deferred students in light of uncertainties around funding.
5.5 Table 3 (Appendix 1) shows where accepted applicants from different domiciles have chosen to study in the UK. This shows, for example, that in 2010 34% of Welsh domiciled students, 6% of Scottish domiciled students, and 25% of Northern Irish students chose to study in the England. Increasing differentiation in tuition fees and student support arrangements are likely to impact upon cross-border flows of students, particularly where these arrangements favour home domiciled students over and above those resident in other parts of the UK. It will be important for policy makers to take a holistic view of any changes.
6.
Admissions Process Review (APR)
6.1 The admission process for people entering higher education has not changed significantly since its introduction over 50 years ago. At this point the number of applications was much lower and a lower percentage of applicants were successful. Since then, there has been a significant expansion of higher education both in term of volume and diversity, though the operating rules and timescales have remained broadly unchanged over this time period.
6.2 Recent analysis by UCAS has shown that, on average, over 20 transactions are undertaken by an admissions office to result in one successful applicant. There are also indications that applicants are not using their choices wisely or are facing issues associated with the admissions process.
6.3 Higher and further education is now facing a period of major change. The admissions system needs to reflect this and support members going forward by generating improved efficiencies in the admissions process, while retaining fairness of access for applicants. In light of this, UCAS has commenced an admissions process review that will map future models of admissions that could deliver improved efficiencies for members, increase certainty for applicants, better services and outcomes for applicants and an improved student experience. The review will consider synergies with student finance applications and the possibility of extending UCAS members outside of the UK.
6.4 The objectives of the review will be to:
·
develop a flexible, responsive and cost-effective system that can accommodate a wide range of admissions models
·
design a system that is tailored to institutional requirements in a way which is efficient for UCAS and its members
·
support choice, fair access, social mobility and widening participation.
6.5
The Admissions Process Review will be given strategic direction by a steering group which will be led by UCAS board member and Deputy Vice-Chancellor of Keele University Rama Thirunamachandran.
It
is currently scheduled to complete its initial investigation by
a
utumn 2011.
7.
Qualifications Information Review (QIR)
7.1
The UCAS Tariff was introduced in 2001 with the purpose of allowing comparison across different kinds of qualifications. Since 2001 the range of qualifications available to learners at Level 3 has increased significantly and the original Tariff mechanism is less effective in supporting comparisons across an increasingly complex qualifications landscape.
7.2 In order to keep pace with the changing nature of the qualifications environment and to ensure that UCAS best supports the needs of its members, a review of Qualifications Information is being undertaken by UCAS. The Qualifications Information Review aims to understand more about current use of the Tariff and the wider qualifications information requirements of HEIs and other stakeholders involved in HEI admissions, including awarding organisations, schools and colleges, regulatory bodies, and HE applicants.
7.3 The Qualifications Information Review is currently gathering evidence from a range of stakeholders through a series of consultation events. This contextual understanding and rich evidence base about the qualifications information needs of the sector will be used
to outline a series of proposals for a new or improved system. The review is being led by a steering group chaired by Professor Neil Gorman, the Vice Chancellor of Nottingham Trent University, and will report in June 2011.
10 March 2011
APPENDIX
Table 1:
The learner profile by age of UK
domiciled applicants for 2010
|
|
Country of residence
|
|
England
|
Wales
|
Scotland
|
Northern Ireland
|
|
20 years and under
|
280,063
|
77.75%
|
14,488
|
77.60%
|
23,180
|
71.88%
|
11,246
|
83.26%
|
|
21 to 24 years
|
37,862
|
10.51%
|
2,013
|
10.78%
|
3,942
|
12.22%
|
1,368
|
10.13%
|
|
25 years and over
|
42,283
|
11.74%
|
2,170
|
11.62%
|
5,126
|
15.90%
|
893
|
6.61%
|
|
Total
|
360,208
|
|
18,671
|
|
32,248
|
|
13,507
|
|
Table 2
:
Accepted applicants by age group and UK country of residence
(UK domicile only)
|
Country of residence
|
|
|
England
|
Wales
|
Scotland
|
Northern Ireland
|
Total
|
|
20 years and under
|
2010
|
280,063
|
14,488
|
23,180
|
11,246
|
328,977
|
|
2009
|
276,907
|
15,331
|
22,917
|
11,619
|
326,774
|
|
21 to 24 years
|
2010
|
37,862
|
2,013
|
3,942
|
1,368
|
45,185
|
|
2009
|
39,185
|
2,261
|
3,863
|
1,273
|
46,582
|
|
25 years and over
|
2010
|
42,283
|
2,170
|
5,126
|
893
|
50,472
|
|
2009
|
44,144
|
2,604
|
4,250
|
709
|
51,707
|
|
Total
|
2010
|
360,208
|
18,671
|
32,248
|
13,507
|
424,634
|
|
2009
|
360,236
|
20,196
|
31,030
|
13,601
|
425,063
|
F
igure 1: English
young people
making deferred applications (2004 – 2011)
Table 3
: Accepted applicants (all domiciles) by area of permanent residence and country of accepting institution
|
Area of Permanent Residence
|
Country of institution
|
|
England
|
Wales
|
Scotland
|
Northern Ireland
|
Total
|
|
England
|
2010
|
345,966
|
96.1%
|
10,469
|
2.9%
|
3,547
|
1.0%
|
226
|
0.1%
|
360,208
|
|
2009
|
345,517
|
95.9%
|
9,698
|
2.7%
|
4,747
|
1.3%
|
274
|
0.1%
|
360,236
|
|
Wales
|
2010
|
6,393
|
34.2%
|
12,178
|
65.2%
|
92
|
0.5%
|
8
|
0.0%
|
18,671
|
|
2009
|
5,679
|
28.1%
|
14,373
|
71.2%
|
131
|
0.7%
|
13
|
0.1%
|
20,196
|
|
Scotland
|
2010
|
1,792
|
5.6%
|
55
|
0.2%
|
30,379
|
94.2%
|
22
|
0.1%
|
32,248
|
|
2009
|
1,716
|
5.5%
|
52
|
0.2%
|
29,244
|
94.2%
|
18
|
0.1%
|
31,030
|
|
Northern Ireland
|
2010
|
3,430
|
25.4%
|
169
|
1.3%
|
1,076
|
8.0%
|
8,832
|
65.4%
|
13,507
|
|
2009
|
3,117
|
22.9%
|
117
|
0.9%
|
1,071
|
7.9%
|
9,296
|
68.4%
|
13,601
|
|
Ireland
|
2010
|
1,591
|
53.2%
|
237
|
7.9%
|
650
|
21.7%
|
514
|
17.2%
|
2,992
|
|
2009
|
1,373
|
48.6%
|
250
|
8.9%
|
756
|
26.8%
|
444
|
15.7%
|
2,823
|
|
Other EU
|
2010
|
18,403
|
81.4%
|
807
|
3.6%
|
3,365
|
14.9%
|
40
|
0.2%
|
22,615
|
|
2009
|
16,391
|
78.1%
|
828
|
4.0%
|
3,745
|
17.9%
|
20
|
0.1%
|
20,984
|
|
Non EU
|
2010
|
32,524
|
87.7%
|
1,247
|
3.4%
|
3,208
|
8.7%
|
109
|
0.3%
|
37,088
|
|
2009
|
28,431
|
86.2%
|
1,103
|
3.3%
|
3,363
|
10.2%
|
87
|
0.3%
|
32,984
|
|
Total
|
2010
|
410,099
|
84.2%
|
25,162
|
5.2%
|
42,317
|
8.7%
|
9,751
|
2.0%
|
487,329
|
|
2009
|
402,224
|
83.5%
|
26,421
|
5.5%
|
43,057
|
8.9%
|
10,152
|
2.1%
|
481,854
|
|
