Documents considered by the Committee on 27 October 2010 - European Scrutiny Committee Contents


1 Economic policy coordination


(a)

(32036)

14498/10

COM(10) 524

(b)

(32043)

14497/10

COM(10) 523

(c)

(32044)

14496/10

COM(10) 522

(d)

(32047)

14520/10

COM(10) 526


Draft Regulation on the effective enforcement of budgetary surveillance in the euro area


Draft Council Directive on requirements for budgetary frameworks of the Member States


Draft Council regulation (EU) No …/… amending Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 on speeding up and clarifying the implementation of the excessive deficit procedure

Draft Regulation amending Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 on the strengthening of the surveillance of budgetary positions and the surveillance and coordination of economic policies

Legal base(a) Articles 121(6) and 136 TFEU; co-decision; QMV

(b) and (c) Article 126(14) TFEU; consultation; unanimity

(d) Article 121(6) TFEU; co-decision; QMV

Documents originated29 September 2010
Deposited in Parliament(a)-(c) 11 October 2010

(d) 12 October 2010

DepartmentHM Treasury
Basis of considerationEM of 25 October 2010
Previous Committee ReportNone
To be discussed in CouncilNot known
Committee's assessmentPolitically important
Committee's decisionFor debate on the Floor of the House, together with two Commission Communications, already recommended for debate,[1] and two other legislative proposals dealt with in a separate chapter of this Report[2]

Background

1.1 Two elements of the EU's common economic policies are the Economic and Monetary Union, with the eventual aim that all Member States would adopt the euro,[3] and the processes for economic policy coordination under the "Europe 2020" strategy.[4] A third element is the Stability and Growth Pact.

1.2 The Stability and Growth Pact, adopted by the Amsterdam European Council in June 1997, emphasised the obligation of Member States to avoid excessive government deficits, defined as the ratio of a planned or actual deficit to gross domestic product (GDP) at market prices in excess of a "reference value" of 3%.[5] Each year the Council of Economic and Finance Ministers (ECOFIN) issues an Opinion on the updated stability or convergence programme of each Member State.[6] These Opinions, which are not binding on Member States, are based on a recommendation from the Commission. The economic content of the programmes is assessed with reference to the Commission's current economic forecasts. If a Member State's programme is found wanting, it may be invited by ECOFIN, in a Recommendation, to make adjustments to its economic policies, though such Recommendations are likewise not binding on Member States. This whole procedure is essentially the Pact's preventative arm.

1.3 On the other hand, the Pact also endorsed a dissuasive or corrective arm involving action in cases of an excessive government deficit — the excessive deficit procedure provided for in Article 126 TFEU (formerly Article 104 EC) and the relevant Protocol. This procedure consists of Commission reports followed by a stepped series of Council Recommendations (the final two steps do not apply to non-members of the eurozone). Failure to comply with the final stage of Recommendations allows ECOFIN to require publication of additional information by the Member State concerned before issuing bonds and securities, to invite the European Investment Bank to reconsider its lending policy for the Member State concerned, to require a non-interest-bearing deposit from the Member State concerned whilst its deficit remains uncorrected, or to impose appropriate fines on the Member State concerned.

1.4 In response to the current economic problems the EU has adopted a number of measures including the European Economic Recovery Plan of 2008 for fiscal stimulus[7] and the May 2010 package of a European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism which allows EU financial assistance to be granted to a Member State facing "severe difficulties caused by natural disasters or exceptional occurrences beyond its control" and a Special Purpose Vehicle for a voluntary intergovernmental agreement of eurozone Member States for mutual financial support, the European Financial Stabilisation Facility.[8] Such measures have been adopted whilst there has been a parallel discussion of the perception that the EU's economic policy framework has been tested by the global economic crisis, that the EU does not have a mechanism to provide crisis support to its Member States, particularly in the eurozone, and that ex ante budgetary surveillance of some countries had not always been sufficiently robust.

1.5 In May and June 2010 the Commission published two Communications: Reinforcing economic policy coordination and Enhancing economic policy coordination for stability, growth and jobs: tools for stronger EU economic governance — we have recommended these documents for debate on the Floor of the House.[9] The June 2010 European Council reiterated Heads of Government agreement on the need to address some of the issues related to economic governance.[10]

The documents

1.6 These three draft Regulations and the draft Directive carry forward some of the proposals from the Commission's Communications. They are intended to improve economic governance within the EU and to ensure that Member States abide by the terms of the Stability and Growth Pact. Two of the draft Regulations, documents (c) and (d), are amendments to existing secondary legislation on the Pact's preventative arm and excessive deficit procedure. The draft Regulation, document (a) would create a new series of sanctions for eurozone Member States and the draft Directive, document (b) would create minimum standards for domestic fiscal frameworks.

1.7 The draft Regulation to amend Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 on surveillance of budgetary positions and economic policies, document (d), concerns the preventative arm of the Stability and Growth Pact, which requires Member States to submit annual stability or convergence programmes with details of how they plan to achieve agreed medium-term fiscal policy objectives. The amendments would reinforce the role of these objectives and allow the Council to assess whether countries are making sufficient economic adjustment to achieve these. The draft Regulation provides that:

  • an indicative annual pace of 0.5% of GDP would be the benchmark against which Member States' progress towards their objectives would be judged;
  • all Member States' expenditure would be monitored by the Council in order to judge whether they are running prudent fiscal policies;
  • countries that had reached their medium term budgetary objective would be required to show that their annual expenditure growth did not go beyond a prudent medium term rate of GDP growth, unless they also had revenue items that offset the extra growth;
  • for countries that had not yet achieved their medium term budgetary objective, annual expenditure growth would have to be kept below their medium-term GDP growth rate, unless there were revenue items to offset extra expenditure;
  • the effects of a general economic downturn could be allowed for, if it meant that Member States were forced to depart temporarily from their normal adjustment path towards the medium term budgetary objective;
  • Member States that had moved from an unfunded to a fully funded pension scheme would be given credit for this by being allowed to deviate from the adjustment path or their medium term budgetary objective, as long as it was clear that the deviation had arisen solely because of the costs of making these reforms and remained a temporary deviation;
  • there should be an appropriate safety margin to ensure that the cost of the pension reform did not push the Member State into excessive deficit;
  • where a Member State was not judged to be running prudent fiscal policies, the Council could invite the country to make adjustments to its programme in order to achieve its medium term objective;
  • more serious deviations from the adjustment path that had had an impact on the government balance of 0.5% of GDP in one year or 0.25% of GDP or more averaged over two years could lead to the Council making a formal recommendation to the Member State to change its policies so that it could return to its adjustment path, particularly if such deviations were persistent or serious;
  • if a Member State had, however, already achieved and done better than its medium term budgetary objective, the Council would not need to take action if it then deviated from the adjustment path; and
  • the timing of submission of stability and convergence programmes, presently submitted in the autumn, would with the advent of the "EU Semester", be altered to require submission in April, to coincide with submission of Member States' National Reform Programmes.

1.8 The recitals to the draft Regulation indicate that there should be an extra enforcement mechanism for eurozone Member States that have consistently deviated from their normal adjustment path without good reason — that is the measures proposed in the draft Regulation create a new series of sanctions for eurozone Member States, document (a).

1.9 The draft Regulation to amend Regulation (EC) No 1467/97, document (c), concerns the excessive deficit procedure, the process by which the Council monitors Member States running deficits above 3% of GDP or debt ratios of more than 60% of GDP. The amendments are intended to speed up the stages of the excessive deficit procedure so that the Council could take swift action to monitor excessive deficits, and issue sanctions faster in the case of non compliance with recommendations. The draft Regulation provides that:

  • all Member States would have a deadline of six months to take effective action to reduce their debts and deficits once they were in the excessive deficit procedure;
  • excessive deficits should normally be corrected within twelve months;
  • Council recommendations to Member States in the excessive deficit procedure should require Member States to meet annual budgetary targets that would improve their cyclically adjusted balance by a minimum of 0.5% of GDP, so that they would be on course to meet the deadline for correction of the excessive debt or deficit;
  • revised recommendations could be issued to Member States if they had taken effective action, but their finances had suffered significant adverse effects as a result of events beyond the Government's direct control, such as a major economic downturn;
  • in such circumstances, the deadline for correction of the excessive deficit could be extended by up to twelve months;
  • the Council would have to issue a warning under Article 126 (9) TFEU to eurozone Member States that were breaching their excessive deficit procedure recommendations within two months of the Council decision that the Member State had not taken adequate action to reduce its debt and/or deficit;
  • the warning would set a new deadline by which the Member State would have to take effective action and would request that the Member State improved its cyclically adjusted balance by a minimum of 0.5% of GDP per annum;
  • the Council warning would set out the policy measures that would help the Member State to achieve this;
  • if the eurozone Member State subsequently failed to act on the warnings, the Council would have to impose sanctions on the Member State within four months of the warning;
  • subsequent rounds of more intensive sanctions could be imposed for further non-compliance with the Council's recommendations;
  • there would be greater emphasis on the 60% debt criterion of the Stability and Growth Pact — presently, although the Treaty gives equal weight to the debt and the deficit criteria, Member States have only entered excessive deficit procedure as a result of their deficits exceeding the 3% threshold;
  • there would be a benchmark for assessing whether a Member State's debt was diminishing towards the 60% threshold at an adequate pace;
  • this benchmark would require countries to reduce the degree to which their actual debt level exceeds the 60% threshold, over the previous three years, at a rate of one-twentieth per year;
  • because of the economic downturn and the fact that many Member States are currently running debt levels above 60% of GDP, there would be a three year transition period once the revised Regulation entered into force, so as to ensure that the effects of the recent crisis are taken into account when assessing a Member State's debt levels and whether or not it should be put into excessive deficit procedure on this basis;
  • there would be some flexibility for Member States that had implemented pension reforms to put their pensions on a fully funded basis;
  • if Member States were running high debts or deficits above the Treaty reference values as a result of the costs of these reforms, and as long as the deficit remained close to the reference value if the debt criterion had been breached, the Commission and Council could take the pension reform into consideration when deciding whether to put the Member State into the excessive deficit procedure (or deciding whether the excessive deficit procedure could be abrogated); and
  • once the revised Regulation entered into force, there would be a five year period within which the cost of any pension reforms made by a Member State (regardless of when those reforms were made) would be taken into consideration when the Council assesses the debt levels of that Member State.

1.10 The draft Regulation sets out the process by which sanctions would be applied to eurozone countries. Sanctions for these Member States have always existed under Article 126(11) TFEU, but have never previously been defined, beyond the indication that they should be of an appropriate size and proportionate to the Member State's GDP. The draft Regulation provides that:

  • there would be a fixed fine of 0.2% of the Member State's GDP, plus a variable element;
  • if the breach had occurred because of a high deficit, the variable element would be calculated as 10% of the difference between the Member State's actual deficit as a percentage of GDP in the previous year and the 3% Treaty reference value;
  • if the breach had occurred because of high debts above the 60% Treaty reference value, the variable component would be calculated as 10% of the difference between the actual deficit as a percentage of GDP in the previous year and the general government balance as a percentage of GDP that ought to have been achieved if the Member State had followed the terms of the warning issued under Article 126(9);
  • subsequent sanctions for repeated non compliance with recommendations would be calculated on the basis of the variable component only;
  • individual fines would be capped at 0.5% of GDP; and
  • whilst a Member State remained in the excessive deficit procedure the Council would have to review its progress every year to decide whether it was taking effective action or whether further sanctions should be imposed.

1.11 The draft Regulation on the effective enforcement of budgetary surveillance in the eurozone, document (a), would establish a process by which sanctions would be applied to eurozone Member States and would allow sanctions to be applied to these countries in both the preventative arm of the Stability and Growth Pact, that is, on the basis of assessments of a Member State's stability programme, and the corrective arm — the excessive deficit procedure. The draft Regulation provides that:

  • only eurozone Member States would vote on any of the decisions to impose sanctions or fines, with the vote of the Member State concerned not taken into account;
  • if a Member State did not achieve or make adequate progress towards its medium-term budgetary objectives and this deviation was serious or there were several deviations from this path, the Member State would have to pay a deposit to the EU of 0.2% of their GDP in the previous year;
  • the Council would take the decision to impose the deposit on the Member State by "reverse qualified majority" — that is there would have to be a qualified majority of Member States opposing the imposition of this deposit, otherwise it would be imposed automatically within ten days of a Commission proposal;
  • the Member State would receive interest on this deposit at a rate to be determined, depending on the term of investment and the Commission's credit rating;
  • in exceptional circumstances, the Member State could make a formal request to the Commission for this deposit to be waived or for the amount to be reduced, which the Commission and Council would consider;
  • once the Member State had taken corrective policy action to return to the adjustment path towards its medium term budgetary objectives, the deposit and any interest would be returned to the Member State in full;
  • if the Member State subsequently entered the excessive deficit procedure, the Member State would have to make a deposit of 0.2% of its GDP in the previous year;
  • the Council would impose this on the Member State, acting by reverse qualified majority;
  • this deposit would not bear interest;
  • if the Member State had already placed an interest bearing deposit with the EU under the preventative arm of the Stability and Growth Pact, it would be converted into a non-interest-bearing deposit;
  • if this were smaller than the amount of the previous interest bearing deposit, the extra amount would be returned to the Member State;
  • if the non-interest-bearing deposit were larger than the previous interest bearing deposit, then the Member State would have to supplement it by the necessary amount when it entered the excessive deficit procedure;
  • reduction or cancellation of this deposit would be allowed if there were exceptional economic circumstances or if the Member State was able to make a convincing case to Commission and Council for such a waiver or reduction;
  • once the Council had decided that the Member State could leave the excessive deficit procedure, any outstanding non-interest-bearing deposits lodged with the EU would be returned to the Member State;
  • the Member State would continue to be monitored under the excessive deficit procedure as normal;
  • if Council decided that the Member State had failed to act on its excessive deficit procedure recommendations, it would impose a fine on the Member State, acting by reverse qualified majority;
  • the fine would be set at 0.2% of the Member State's GDP in the previous year;
  • any non-interest-bearing deposit that the Member State had already paid would be converted into a fine;
  • if the fine were larger than the deposit, the Member State would have to make up the excess;
  • if the fine were smaller, the extra amount would be returned to the Member State; and
  • the Commission and Council could decide to cancel or reduce the amount of the fine in exceptional economic circumstances or on the basis of a request by the Member State.

1.12 The draft Regulation does not contain detailed explanations of exactly how Member States would pay these deposits to the EU nor where this money would be held. However, it indicates that:

  • the Commission would count income from fines and the interest earned by the EU on deposits that do not bear interest to the Member State as "other revenue" under the EU Budget; and
  • this money would be distributed amongst eurozone countries that were not in the excessive deficit procedure and did not have excessive macroeconomic imbalances.

1.13 The draft Council Directive on requirements for Member States' budgetary frameworks, document (b) proposes a series of minimum standards for Member States' domestic budgetary frameworks, which would need to be adopted by 31 December 2013 at the latest. The proposal provides that:

  • Member States would have to have public accounting systems that met all the terms of Regulation (EC) No 2223/96 (commonly referred to as the ESA 95 standards);[11]
  • Member States would have to publish monthly cash-based fiscal data and a table comparing cash-based and ESA-based data;
  • in countries where a great deal of expenditure is delegated to regional or sub- regional bodies, governments would have to take steps to ensure that all sub sectors of government operated under the same accounting rules and published the same standard of data as the central finance ministry and, where relevant, published data at the same frequency;
  • any budgetary responsibilities of public authorities would have to be set out clearly in order to enhance the transparency and accountability of the whole system;
  • such bodies would have to take steps to ensure compliance with the same numerical fiscal rules as the central government;
  • Member States would have to ensure that their fiscal planning was done on the basis of credible macroeconomic and budgetary forecasts, working on the most probable or even more cautious scenarios that highlighted possible deviation from the most likely macro-fiscal scenario;
  • Member States would be required to explain any divergence between the macro-fiscal scenario that underpinned their own forecasts and fiscal plans and the Commission's forecasts for that country;
  • Member States would be required to prepare alternative macroeconomic scenarios based on previous experience of fiscal outturns relative to forecasts, in order to show what their fiscal position could be under different economic circumstances;
  • Member States would have to prepare multiannual budgetary frameworks, that is showing future fiscal projections over a number of years, rather than over a twelve month period only;
  • the budgetary framework would have to contain clear budgetary objectives expressed in terms of government deficit and debt and clear forward projections of major expenditure and revenue based on current fiscal policies;
  • it would need to explain how the government's fiscal plans would make progress towards the Member State's medium-term budgetary objective relative to the same projections made on the basis of current fiscal policies;
  • Member States would be required to have numerical fiscal rules that increased compliance with the Treaty reference values of 3% deficit and 60% debt;
  • such numerical rules would have to be reflected in annual budgets and to contain a number of design features, including regular monitoring of compliance with the rules, such as by independent national institutions;
  • there would need to be within the rules consequences in case of non-compliance and escape clauses to allow for Member States to deviate from them in exceptional circumstances;
  • Member States would have to publish detailed information on contingent liabilities with potentially significant impact on public budgets, making sure that this information covered all sub sectors of government; and
  • they would have to publish information on the impact of tax expenditure on revenue.

The Government's view

1.14 In relation to subsidiarity the Financial Secretary to the Treasury (Mr Mark Hoban) says that the Government believes that the Commission is justified in proposing the amending legislation on the Stability and Growth Pact, documents (c) and (d), and the legislation to create sanctions for euro area countries, document (a). But he continues that consistency with the principle of subsidiarity has yet to be established in relation to the proposal to create EU minimum standards for domestic fiscal frameworks, document (b), and says that the Government will provide us with an update on its position in due course.

1.15 Turning to the policy implications the Minister first tells us that the Government supports the aims of these proposals to strengthen the SGP and to improve fiscal and macroeconomic surveillance within the EU and can agree with the Commission's view that the Stability and Growth Pact should be more rigorously enforced in future, particularly for eurozone Member States. He comments that:

  • as economic coordination between Member States helps to foster greater economic stability, particularly between eurozone countries, it is right that ECOFIN should spend more time assessing the content of Member States' stability and convergence programmes;
  • prior to the economic crisis the Stability and Growth Pact was not always rigorously enforced and countries were allowed to stray from their fiscal targets without facing penalties; and
  • this has undermined the credibility of the Pact as a mechanism for preventing Member States from running unsustainable fiscal policies.

1.16 The Minister then tells us that the Government supports the proposals, in documents (a) and (c), to make more frequent use of sanctions in future for eurozone Member States in the excessive deficit procedure and to make application of sanctions more automatic, particularly in cases where these countries have breached their excessive deficit procedure recommendations. But he adds that the Government feels strongly that this process should not become fully automatic, as that could excessively diminish the Council's role — it should retain a role in launching the excessive deficit procedure and taking major decisions related to the treatment of Member States.

1.17 The Minister emphasises that, from a legislative and a policy perspective, the UK has a different relationship to the Stability and Growth Pact from all other Member States by virtue of the opt-out from euro membership and Protocol 15 to the TFEU. He reminds us that this Protocol makes it clear that the UK only has to 'endeavour to avoid' excessive deficits, whereas under Article 126 TFEU all other Member States 'shall avoid' excessive deficits. He observes that, because of these provisions and because the UK is not in the eurozone, the sanctions proposed within the draft Regulation on budgetary surveillance and the draft amending Regulations on the Stability and Growth Pact and excessive deficit procedure, documents (a), (c) and (d), would not apply to the UK.

1.18 Turning to the Treaty value of 60% of GDP for public debt the Minister says that the Government supports the greater focus on such debt within the framework of the Stability and Growth Pact, as well as the proposal to build in a transition period, so that the effects of the recent economic downturn on Member States' debt levels can be appropriately taken into account. He comments that:

  • these proposals would strengthen the application of the excessive deficit procedure, putting Member States into the procedure if they had debt to GDP ratios above 60% and not declining;
  • the Government believes, however, that setting a numerical pace to assess whether Member States were reducing their debt levels at an appropriate speed could be too prescriptive, depending on how it is enforced;
  • debt dynamics are complex and debt has many drivers — so the Council must retain discretion when judging whether debt is falling at an appropriate speed;
  • the Government continues to believe that the main consideration should be whether a Member State's debt is on a downward trajectory, rather than the specific pace of annual debt reduction; and
  • it will seek amendments to these proposals, when the Council negotiations begin this autumn, so that the numerical pace remains only as an indicative benchmark for debt reduction and so that it is not used as a concrete rule by which Member States' debt reduction plans are judged.

1.19 Turning to the draft Council Directive on requirements for Member States' budgetary frameworks, document (b), the Minister tells us that the Government agrees that there may be some benefit in reinforcing domestic fiscal frameworks to improve the transparency and reliability of national accounting, statistical and fiscal data. He says that:

  • measures to improve the quality of national statistics and the independence of national statistical authorities are particularly welcome, in light of the statistical problems that were uncovered in Greece earlier this year;
  • the UK already has a high quality and robust national fiscal framework, with independent statistical and fiscal authorities in place — so these elements of the proposals should have little impact on the UK;
  • the Government supports the requirement for all Member States to adopt multiannual budgetary frameworks, to ensure that economic and fiscal projections are shown over a number of years rather than just over a one year horizon; and
  • the UK Budget is already set on a multiannual basis, containing economic and fiscal projections over a five year period, which clearly demonstrates the medium-term impact of announced policies on the UK's fiscal position.

But the Minister continues that:

  • the Government remains concerned that the Commission has proposed legislation on minimum standards for domestic fiscal frameworks;
  • construction and operation of Member States' national fiscal frameworks should be a matter for national governments to decide;
  • the Government does not support, in particular, the proposed legislative requirements that specify the design of Member States' domestic fiscal rules;
  • countries must have the discretion to determine their fiscal policies based on national circumstances; and
  • this principle will guide the Government in its negotiations.

Conclusion

1.20 These legislative proposals are an important step in developing coordination of economic policy at EU level. As such we recommend that they be debated on the Floor of the House, together with the Commission Communications Reinforcing economic policy coordination and Enhancing economic policy coordination for stability, growth and jobs: tools for stronger EU economic governance which we have already recommended for debate and two related proposals which we are recommending for debate in another chapter of this Report.[12] And given the importance and breadth of the subject matter, the debate ought to be for three hours.

1.21 In debating these four documents Members could examine particularly the Government's points about:

  • the automaticity of the proposals for sanctions in documents (a) and (c);
  • the preference for a numerical pace for debt reduction to be an indicative benchmark rather than a concrete rule;
  • the subsidiarity issue in relation to the draft Directive (b); and
  • the proposals in that draft Directive for minimum standards for domestic fiscal frameworks.

On the subsidiarity question we hope that the Government will have updated its view in time for the debate.





1   (31618) 9433/10 and (31776) 11807/10: see HC 428-i (2010-11), chapter 8 (8 September 2010). Back

2   (32045) 14512/10 and (32046) 14515/10: see chapter 2 of this Report. Back

3   At present 16 Member States (Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Germany, Greece, Finland, France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain) have adopted the euro. Back

4   See (31373) 7110/10: HC 5-xiv (2009-10), chapter 1 (17 March 2010) and Gen Co Debs, European Committee B, 22 March 2010, cols 3-28. Back

5   This obligation does not apply to Member States, including the UK, whilst they remain outside the eurozone, but they are required to endeavour to avoid excessive deficits. Back

6   The Member States that have adopted the euro have Stability Programmes, whereas the other 11 Member States (including the UK) produce Convergence Programmes. Back

7   See (30213) 16097/08: HC 19-i (2008-09), chapter 4 (10 December 2008) and HC Deb, 20 January 2009, cols 626-653. Back

8   See (31611) 9606/10 (31796) 12119/10: HC 428-i (2010-11), chapter 7 (8 September 2010). Back

9   See (31618) 9433/10 and (31776) 11807/10: HC 428-i (2010-11), chapter 8 (8 September 2010). Back

10   See http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/115346.pdf.  Back

11   See http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/esa95_supply_use_input_tables/introduction.  Back

12   See chapter 2. Back


 
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