Memorandum submitted by the Convention
of Scottish Local Authorities (COSLA)
SUMMARY
1. The proposed limit on migration through
Tiers 1 and 2 of the Points Based System has been conceived in
response to the belief that there is a need to limit migration
to the UK. This is not the case for Scotland. We have a significantly
ageing population, and some areas of Scotland also suffer from
depopulation. COSLA is supportive of the Scottish Government's
economic strategy, which identifies population growth as one of
the key means of achieving economic growth. Migration continues
to be the main way in which Scotland can achieve population growth,
and has contributed to reversing decline in recent years. Any
reduction in the number of migrant workers allowed to live and
work in Scotland will hinder these efforts to grow our population
and our economy. Limiting the number of skilled and highly skilled
migrants is clearly likely to have a particularly detrimental
effect on our economy. A limit will also effect the ability of
the public sector to fill skills shortages, endangering key public
services. COSLA welcomes the opportunity to highlight our key
concerns relating to the proposed cap to the Home Affairs Select
Committee and these are set out in this report.
ABOUT COSLA
2. COSLA, the Convention of Scottish Local
Authorities, is the representative voice of Scottish local government
and also acts as the employers' association on behalf of all Scottish
councils. We are interested in the immigration cap from the perspective
of Scottish councils as employers, but are also more generally
concerned about the negative impact it may have on Scotland's
economy, society and communities. COSLA also hosts the Strategic
Migration Partnership, which works to provide political and strategic
oversight to migration issues in Scotland.
The demographic argument for why an immigration
cap is unsuitable for Scotland's needs
3. The proposed limit on migration through Tiers
1 and 2 of the Points Based System has been conceived in response
to the belief that there is a need to limit migration to the UK.
While this may be the case for some areas of the UK, Scotland
is actively seeking to attract skilled migrants in order to offset
demographic issues, fill key skills shortages and to contribute
towards stimulating our economy. COSLA is therefore concerned
about the negative impact limiting skilled and highly skilled
migration will have on Scotland's economy and society.
4. In recent years, the General Register Office
Scotland (GROS) has predicted that Scotland's population will
experience growth for a number of years and after that period
our population will begin to decline. While our population has
grown each year for the last five years, our demographics are
shifting as a higher proportion of people live longer into old
age. These trends are set to continue and the graph below illustrates
the projected trends modelled by Prof. Robert Wright of the University
of Strathclyde's Business School's Economics Department:
5. Scotland faces a difficult situation:
a higher proportion of elderly people and a decreasing working
age population will inevitably lead to increased pressures on
health and social care services and a shrinking economy to fund
them. This issue is intensified by the current economic slow-down
and has clear social and public sector implications for Scotland.
6. In order to avoid these problems action
is required now to grow our economy and boost our population.
The Scottish Government has responded with an economic strategy
that aims to increase sustainable economic growth in order to
make Scotland more successful and to provide opportunities for
all of Scotland to flourish. Population growth is identified as
a key means of achieving this. The Scottish Government's target
is to match EU15 population growth over the next ten years. COSLA
are supportive of Scottish Government's population growth target
and recognise that migration is critical to achieving population
growth and a younger demographic profile. GROS has indicated that
migration is the biggest contributor to Scotland's population
growth and the reversal in the trend of population decline that
we have experienced in the last five years.
The anticipated economic impacts of the proposed
cap
7. COSLA anticipates a range of detrimental
effects of an immigration cap. It will harm Scotland (and the
rest of the UK's) ability to attract highly skilled migrants,
investors and entrepreneurs to come to the UK and contribute to
boosting our economy. Even if investors and entrepreneurs are
excluded from the cap, limiting the ability of companies to recruit
from abroad is likely to create a disincentive to invest. This
is a particular risk for new industries where key skills do not
exist in sufficient levels within the local workforce. For example
Scottish Renewables recently announced that Scotland's developing
offshore wind industry could lead to the creation of 28,000 direct
jobs and generate £7.1 billion. Developing industries such
as this could benefit from the recruitment of experienced professionals
from outside the European Union, particularly until the local
workforce has been sufficiently upskilled.
8. We believe that the proposed pool system for
Tier 1 of the Points Based System will result in UK employers
being less able to compete for the most highly skilled migrants.
We are concerned that highly skilled migrants entering through
Tier 1 will be reluctant to wait in a pool to enter the UK and
if this system is implemented the UK is likely to lose the migrants
who offer the most in terms of their economic contribution to
other countries. This is likely to have an overall negative impact
on the economy of Scotland and the rest of the UK.
The anticipated social impacts of the proposed
cap
9. The key social impact that we anticipate
is the inability to use migration to contribute to offsetting
the demographic challenge outlined above. We have a general concern
that the proposals and consultations are based on the assumption
that migration has a negative social impact, which can be reduced
by limiting numbers. Within the context of a well-managed immigration
system that is responsive to local needs we believe that the negative
impacts of migration are more than compensated for by the positive
contribution that migrants bring to our communities, society and
economy.
10. It is worth noting that the view of Scottish
local authorities tends to be that the impact of migration is
minimal, and any negative consequences tend to be offset by the
benefits migration brings. Positive benefits of migration include
enhanced cultural diversity, raised levels of educational attainment
and skilled workers who can fill specific skills shortage roles.
The focus on the negative impacts of migration within the consultation
document and supporting presentations is unhelpful.
11. The Migration Advisory Committee's own
assessment of the economic contribution of PBS dependents demonstrated
that adult dependants of PBS migrants are likely to be skilled
and in work. COSLA is of the view that migrants with children
are more likely to integrate successfully into communities, thus
reducing cohesion issues. We are therefore of the view that limiting
the ability of migrants to bring dependents into the UK is counter-productive.
It also undermines Scotland's ability to tackle the demographic
issues mentioned above.
The anticipated public sector impacts of the proposed
cap
12. We are also concerned about the impact
an immigration cap will have on public sector employer's ability
to recruit skilled migrants from outside the EU to fill specific
skills shortages. Proposals to raise the criteria for allocating
points for earnings in particular will harm public sector employers
who will be unable to raise salaries accordingly because of the
restrictions on public sector budgets and the need to ensure that
public sector jobs are banded according to equal pay frameworks.
13. Some highly skilled workers like medical
consultants will come to work in the public sector via Tier 1,
but the majority of public sector recruitment will be through
Tier 2. The first, come first served system proposed for Tier
2 where a set number of visas are made available in each quarter
is likely to lead to periods where it is impossible to enter the
UK through Tier 2 because the supply of visas has been exhausted.
This system will not be responsive to spikes in demand, for example
triggered by a recruitment drive for social workers.
14. Combining the Resident Labour Market
Test route and the Skilled Shortage Occupation Route is also likely
to be harmful to public sector employers. The Skilled Shortage
Occupation list provides an opportunity for skilled workers to
be recruited from outside the European Union to fill skills shortage
posts which also happen to be less well paid. For example, at
present senior care workers are on the shortage occupation list
which means as long as people skilled in this area have a sufficient
level of English and £800 towards their maintenance they
can be sponsored to enter the UK to take up a post. However, in
order to enter via the Resident Labour Market Test route a senior
care worker would have to obtain additional points for qualifications
and earnings. Since senior care workers tend to be paid less than
£24k, they would have to have at least a Bachelor's Degree
in order to obtain a visa, whereas the general requirement is
an NQF level 3. While there may be an argument that these salaries
should be raised in order to attract local workers into these
posts, but this is highly problematic in the current financial
climate, goes against the single status arrangements to guarantee
equality across pay scales and does not tackle the immediate problem
of genuine skills shortages within the local workforce.
The focus on net migration
15. COSLA has a general concern about the
focus on reducing net migration. We are aware that new migrants
require a range of services including translating and interpreting,
information about rights and entitlements etc and a significant
influx of new migrants has the potential to lead to community
cohesion issues. We therefore recommend that local authorities
develop a strategy to ensure that migrants begin to learn English,
integrate into their communities and access mainstream services
rather than demanding specialist migrant-focused services. In
this sense, longer term migration has less social and public sector
impact than a constant stream of short term migrants. Net migration
is effectively the difference between in-migration and out-migration,
where people have the intention to stay or leave for at least
12 months. In the context where there is a low level of net-migration
we could still have a high turnover of migrants who stay for around
a year before moving on. This type of migration will have a more
significant impact on society and public services than a high
level of net-migration where migrants settle, integrate and contribute
to the economy for a longer period.
16. If a target for migration has to be implemented
we believe it would be more appropriate to have a target for net
migration, rather than a limit to in migration. We also believe
strongly that targets for net migration should take into consideration
the needs of different parts of the UK and should have the flexibility
to allow areas experiencing depopulation or demographic problems
to encourage increased in migration.
August 2010
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