Memorandum submitted by MigrationWatch
SUMMARY
1. Main points:
(d) A pool for Tier 1 seems feasible. The Post
Study Route should be suspended.
(e) The ICT route needs serious tightening.
(f) The shortage occupation route should be abolished.
(g) Dependants should be included.
INTRODUCTION
2. The government proposals for a cap on
economic migration must be seen in a wider context. Net immigration
has fallen from its peak of 245,000 in 2004 to 163,000 in 2008.
The figure for 2009, due in November, may be slightly lower. Past
experience suggests that net migration falls during periods of
recession but resumes its upward trend thereafter. The latest
population projections (2008 based) assume that net migration
will continue at 180,000 per year. This would bring the population
of the UK to 70 million in twenty years and 80 million shortly
after mid-century. To stabilise our population we need to bring
net immigration down to about 40,000 per year, as illustrated
in the graph below.
3. Immigration accounts, directly and indirectly,
for 68% of our population growth over the next 25 years. Furthermore,
over the two most recent decades, the decennial growth rate has
doubled each decade—in effect our population has been growing
exponentially.
ECONOMIC MIGRATION
4. The precise scale of economic migration
is uncertain. It is derived from a voluntary survey of 2% of those
who arrive in Britain; the results are then grossed up. Those
who say that they intend to stay for over a year are counted,
under the international definition, as immigrants. Of the two
million granted a visa each year, about 600,000 declare themselves
as immigrants. They are then asked their main reason for migrating.
The results for 2008 are set out below:[2]
| Thousands |
Formal Study | 175 |
Definite Job | 145 |
Looking for Work | 75
|
Accompany/Join | 88 |
Other | 64 |
No reason stated | 44
|
| |
TOTAL
| 590 |
| |
| |
5. This table suggests that only 37% of migrants come
to work or to seek work. However, these numbers include EU citizens
who, in that year, were about 1/3rd of gross
inward migration so non-EU economic migration might be about 25%
of inward migration as a whole.[3]
6. It is important to note that there is no reliable
estimate of net migration for the purposes of work. The
reason is that the survey questions do not distinguish between
workers returning home and those who arrived as students returning
home to seek work. This is a serious deficiency in the statistics
which should lie at the heart of this debate.
ECONOMIC MIGRATION
FROM THE
EU
7. Net migration from the EU 15 has averaged about 20,000
a year over the past 10 years and 35,000 over the last five.
8. There are no precise numbers for A8 nationals because
some did not register, the self-employed were not required to,
and others were only here for a few months. In any case, there
were no checks of individuals on arrival or departure. The ONS
estimates that the number of A8 residents rose from 114,000 in
2001 to 689,000 in 2008.[4]
9. There are, however, a number of important reasons
to believe that net immigration from the A8 will decline:
— their economic level will rise towards ours;
— transitional arrangements end in May 2011 (and 2013
for Romania and Bulgaria) so the whole EU 15 will be open to them;
— the number of Poles reaching the age of 18 will decline
by 30% between 2005 and 2016; and
— a reverse flow will start to counter-balance the inflow.
It is noteworthy that, in Q4 2009, net migration from the
A8 countries was negative for the first time.
10. The government have promised to impose strict transitional
controls on new members of the European Union, most of which are
relatively small—except Turkey. The admission of Turkey
to the EU would have very serious implications for UK immigration
control. Otherwise, it is clear that the main immigration pressure
will be from outside the European Union and especially from the
developing world where the number of young people is growing rapidly
and unemployment is very high.
NON-EU ECONOMIC
MIGRATION—NUMBERS
AFFECTED
11. Government statistics are extremely confusing and
seldom tally with each other. Annex A suggest that about 132,000
non-EU migrants were admitted (or granted an extension) in 2009.
This seems to be broadly similar to 2008 which is four times the
level of 1995.[5] There
is certainly no sign that the Points Based Systems (PBS) has significantly
reduced economic migration. Indeed, the number of certificates
of sponsorship issued in Q4 2009 suggests a significant increase
in Tier 2 (general) to about 30,000 a year and a smaller increase
in Tier 2 (ICT) to about 34,000 a year.[6]
A clear set of work permit statistics from the Home Office would
be an aid to constructive discussion.
12. Tier 1 (general) seems to be running at about 20,000 a
year, judging by the number of visas issued in 2009.[7]
Tier 1 (post study route) is largely granted in-country and the
numbers are running at about 35,000 a year.
EFFECTIVENESS OF
A POOL
SYSTEM
13. A pool system for Tier 1 (general), perhaps on a
three month basis, seems entirely feasible. The limit could be
adjusted in the light of other flows. Tier 1 (post study route),
running at about 35,000 a year, should be suspended for so long
as British graduates are struggling to find work.
14. For Tier 2 (general), first come-first served risks stimulating
a high volume of precautionary applications. A quarterly (or even
monthly) pool would be better. An auction system should be investigated.
INTRA-COMPANY
TRANSFERS (ICT'S)
15. This scheme has gone badly wrong. It was originally
intended to allow international companies to move their senior
staff in and out of the UK without difficulty. This is a key attribute
that must be maintained. Unfortunately, the scheme has been used
in recent years to post tens of thousands of, at best, middle
ranking IT workers to the UK—often from India. Their purpose
is to become familiar with particular IT functions in the UK so
that the work can be off-shored. Some 85% of ICTs are project
related in this way.[8]
This process conflicts with the principle that overseas nationals
should be recruited for genuine and additional posts in the UK
as well as with the requirement for specialist company knowledge.
It is also open to manipulation of pay and allowances. The Migration
Advisory Committee has, quite rightly, called for much tighter
policing; we would suggest that the salary requirement be raised
to, say £50,000, to ensure that those admitted under this
route are genuinely required to occupy senior positions. A further
means of tightening this route would be to deny renewal unless
the applicant was earning a very high salary such as £70,000
per annum.
SHORTAGE OCCUPATION
LISTS
16. The number of visas granted under this scheme is
very small—only a few thousand. We suggest that it would
be better to abolish this list and the bureaucracy associated
with it. The only effect would be that certain employers would
have to advertise jobs locally for a month. That might also give
British workers an opportunity to change into the occupation concerned.
There might have to be transition arrangements in particular cases
such as chefs and senior care workers.
DEPENDANTS
17. Dependants should certainly be included in the cap
since it is the overall scale of immigration that is the underlying
concern. Obviously, the cap itself would have to be such as to
take account of their inclusion.
SETTLEMENT
18. What really matters, especially from the point of
view of population, is not who comes but who settles. A second
Points Based System for settlement would take some of the pressure
off the work permit system (although it might add to the problems
of removal). This second hurdle could be based very largely on
salary with recognition for special artistic or scientific merit.
The Committee will be aware that the previous government went
out to consultation on such a scheme. The present government do
not appear to have reached a view on it.
August 2010
Annex A
WORK PERMITS GRANTED IN CALENDAR 2009
| | In country | Out of country
| Total |
| Tier 1 (general)1 | 26,122
| 13,958 | 40,080 |
| Tier 2 (Post Study)2 | 30,927
| 4,248 | 35,175 |
| Tier 2 (general)3 | 12,581 |
8,558 | 21,139 |
| Tier 2 (ICT)4 | 6,557 | 22,034
| 28,591 |
Work Permits5
(previous system) | 7,300
| 5,1656 | 12,465 |
| | TOTAL
| 137,450 |
| |
| |
ALTERNATIVE SOURCE FOR Q4 20098
| Certificate of sponsorship | allocated
| pending | quarterly
guesstimate
|
| Tier 2 general | 6,965
| 2,735 | 7,500 |
| Tier 2 ICT | 7,680 | 2,845
| 8,500 |
| | |
|
| Total | 14,465 | 5,580
| 16,000 |
| 1. Hansard 12 June 2010 Col 851W and 13 July 2010 Col 632W
| | | |
| 2. Ibid | |
| |
| 3. Hansard 4 March Col 1378W |
| | |
| 4. Hansard 12 June 2010 Col 851W and 13 July 2010 Col 632W
| | | |
| 5. Control of Immigration Statistics 2009—table 4.1
| | | |
| 6. Migration Advisory Committee presentation
| | | |
| 7. deleted | |
| |
| 8. Hansard 5 Feb 2010 Column 580W |
| | |
| |
| |
2
Source: ONS Long term international migration series MN Table
2.04.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=15053 Back
3
The Migration Advisory Committee have come to a similar figure-see
para 2.25 of their consultation document. Back
4
Population Trends 138 page 15. Back
5
Migration Advisory Committee September 2008, Table 2.3. Back
6
Hansard, 5 February 2010, Column 508W. Back
7
Control of Immigration Statistics 2009 Table 1.1. Back
8
Salt (2008) quoted in Migration Advisory Committee August 2009
page 111. Back
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