Commissioning: further issues - Health Committee Contents


Examination of Witnesses (Questions 334-390)

Q334 Chair: Good morning. Thank you for coming to the Committee. In the first half of this morning's session, we want to focus on the effect of the changes proposed by the Government in the Health and Social Care Bill on the management of reconfiguration of services within the NHS. That is the main focus of this session. Could I ask the witnesses to introduce themselves, briefly?

Alwen Williams: Shall I start?

Chair: Yes. Thank you very much.

Alwen Williams: I am Alwen Williams. I am the Chief Executive for the inner north-east London cluster of PCTs.

John Black: John Black, President, Royal College of Surgeons.

Dr Hobday: Paul Hobday. I have been a full-time GP in Kent for 30 years and—a slight correction to the order paper—I am an ex-chair of the local BMA.

Seán Boyle: I am Seán Boyle. I am a Senior Research Fellow in LSE Health at London School of Economics.

Q335 Chair: Thank you very much. Could I ask you to begin the session by setting out for the Committee, in general terms, your view, first, about the importance, or lack of importance, possibly, if that is the case you wish to argue—the relative importance—of reconfiguration of services in delivering good value and high quality health care? Is that something that ought to be a priority? Secondly, whether or not it is a priority, what do you think is the impact of the changes currently going through Parliament on the ability and the methods the Health Service will use to manage the reconfiguration of health care delivery? Shall we move from left to right and start with Alwen Williams? Thank you.

Alwen Williams: Thank you. My personal view, and very much from personal experience, is that the reconfiguration of services is a priority. It is a priority for a number of reasons, but principally to ensure the delivery of effective clinical outcomes, good quality patient experience and, in some cases, that NHS resources are used optimally. In north-east London we have a number of examples where we have transacted a reconfiguration of some specialised services, for example, a heart attack centre, hyper acute stroke services and trauma services. There is a clear evidence base in relation to the impact of that reconfiguration in terms of patient outcomes.

In terms of the impact of the reforms, there will be an issue as to how the functions of GP commissioning consortia are transacted collectively around reconfiguration issues. Often they are issues that require very close collaboration and partnership across a range of commissioners. That depends on the nature of the services being addressed, but one of the issues will be the way in which GP commissioning consortia work together across broader population bases and are held to account for the delivery of high quality, effective and cost-efficient services on behalf of their populations.

Q336 Chair: Do your current responsibilities include Chase Farm?

Alwen Williams: No.

Chair: In that case, I won't ask you to comment on it.

John Black: The reconfiguration of services is constantly with us as patient treatments change. My college would take an attitude that if there is a clear evidence base we would strongly support it—where there is a clear evidence base. There are often, of course, very difficult conflicts, politically, with providing a National Health Service with some of the reconfigurations and centralisations of service and we have to recognise that reconciliation of these two may be exceedingly difficult. Remember Kidderminster.

  The other point we would make is that if reconfiguration has to be done on cost grounds—we are all grown ups and we all recognise this—it should be made completely open that a reconfiguration is being done on cost grounds and not on improvement of service grounds.

  Lastly, we would bitterly oppose reconfigurations brought about by artificial outside influences, such as the European Working Time Directive.

Dr Hobday: I would fully agree with a lot that has been said. As GPs we feel—and I feel from my own personal experience, particularly in Maidstone where I practise—that we have been very much left out of the process completely. It is only in recent days, since Mr Lansley's announcement that we were to take the commissioning driving seat, that the PCTs and the acute trusts woke up to consult us. Obviously I would say that is a good thing. I feel GPs are in a position to give good evidence for the value of the reconfiguration, considering we see 90% of patients in the NHS and have over 300 million consultations every year.

Locally, as to the four rules that Mr Lansley has imposed, I have a very good example where all four rules have been broken and GPs' opinions have been totally ignored. I would hope that that would not continue to be the case.

Q337 Chair: Could I ask you to comment on what Alwen Williams said, that there are questions in the new world about the ability of GP consortia to be large enough to look across the range of services required to plan a large scale reconfiguration?

Dr Hobday: The size of the consortia is one of the major questions I don't think anybody has an answer to. Clearly, everybody knows that if they are too small they have no influence and if they are too big they lose the local value. In my years as a GP, having seen a dozen or so reorganisations, from Family Practitioner Committees to FHSAs, et cetera, they have continually followed this cycle of starting off small, merging and then breaking up again. When PCGs were first introduced, as a policy, that seemed favourable because, initially, GPs were on board. But when they became PCTs, they became far too large and lost their local influence. I really have no answer to how big consortia ought to be.

  My local example is that we have worked fairly well in a local PBC group of about 112,000 patients and 70-something GPs. We have had a little bit of influence in tinkering but, of course, we had no great power against a giant local acute trust. We have now merged with two other consortia to produce a group of 361,000 patients and 252 GPs. We have already lost our local "feel" and the people that are running these are self-selected because no GPs have come forward yet to want to run them, apart from the enthusiasts.

Q338 Nadine Dorries: You just said that if consortia are too small they are not effective and if they are too large they lose their local influence. That conjures up a mental image of all the GPs practising in one place and we know that they are going to be, still, in their individual practices. Could you define what you mean by large consortia losing local influence?

Dr Hobday: Locally, I can give the best answer by quoting what has happened in Kent. Our local trusts and the local area merged because it needed the size to build a new PFI hospital. But it produced real divisions in the whole area between the two main towns in our PCT group, Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells, where there was almost warfare between the two ends. Without decent co-operation, you cannot produce decent services because people were coming from completely different directions. That was when it was too big.

Q339 Nadine Dorries: That is not exactly losing local influence, though, is it? That implies something else. The GPs in those two groups were still practising as GPs and I am sure the patients didn't receive any better or lesser treatment because of what happened.

Dr Hobday: No, but in the long run it influenced the services provided. For instance, Maidstone has lost its consultant-led maternity unit against the wishes of local GPs because they were put together with the Tunbridge Wells GPs who had no interest in Maidstone.

Q340 Nadine Dorries: And that is as a direct result of that?

Dr Hobday: That is the direct result of the group getting too big and not local.

Chair: Could I bring in Seán Boyle in answer to the original question?

Seán Boyle: Yes. I don't think we should say that reconfiguration is necessarily a good thing in itself. What we always need to do is look at the case for reconfiguration and the case for change. That should work in the best interests of the populations concerned. What we should be doing is ensuring that businesses cases are presented on a case-by-case basis with the clear evidence underlying each part of the case. You need to look at a financial case but also at access for populations as well as clinical quality and at deliverability, if there are going to be major changes. This is a process which we have had in the NHS for some time now and that is key to delivering good change.

  In terms of the country as a whole, we have different practices in different parts of the country. That is often a good thing, but you also have to recognise that, over time, there are technological changes which mean you have to change the way you do things. Colleagues on my right have said that, and that is important. Always—and I suppose I would say this—the evidence has to be clearly presented and it has to be presented to the public so that people will feel they are properly consulted on what is being proposed and will understand. Often the public are treated like fools, but they do understand a lot of the technical side of this. They can see what a trade-off between access, cost and quality might mean. They also know when they are not being given the real story.

Q341 Chair: There are two different models here, aren't there? One is that the commissioner is responsible for planning a reconfiguration of services and the other is that the commissioner directs the patient to where the patient is best treated and it is for the provider to plan services in response to the referrals by GPs. Do you have an instinctive preference for one of those routes or the other and do you think that the Bill currently going through Parliament changes the balance of that argument?

Seán Boyle: To take the first point, I don't have a preference one way or the other. I believe you need to present the case in a way which makes clear the choices being made by professionals on behalf of patients and then bring it back to patients for their view to be taken account of.

I have been involved in a number of issues around reconfigurations over the last 20 years in different parts of England. The sort of choice I mean is that it may be, in order to keep a maternity unit open or an A&E department open, you need to spend another £1 million or £2 million. If you present that as a choice to the public, that if you are going to spend that on keeping local access then you are going to lose something else, and make people aware of that, then the public are making those choices. They are deciding whether or not their local unit should close. They may well say, "No. We can see the need to do that."

  As to the changes, it remains unclear to me what is going to happen in the future. Often, what is being proposed is very similar to what we are doing already in terms of business cases, consultation and changes round the edges about who is actually doing things. You may come on in later questions to discuss the structure of commissioning and these sorts of decisions and the way in which local authorities will influence this.

Chair: That is exactly where Mr George wishes to take us.

Q342 Andrew George: That is good, yes. Could I begin by refining the term "reconfiguration"? I am not aware of any community being up in arms or petitioning against having a dialysis service closer to their home or having a CT scanner in their local hospital whereas it was 50 miles away or having an ophthalmic service in a smaller hospital closer to them. When you are reconfiguring and bringing services closer to people, those are pretty uncontentious. If we can refine the term "reconfiguration" to the contentious side, which is the concentration, the centralisation and the reduction in numbers of centres providing those services, could you say how you think the dynamics of centralising the services are best managed under the new GP consortia arrangements? In other words, how will decisions, as you see them, be made by GP consortia when we are talking about the centralisation of services? To what extent will they have a say in terms of that type of reconfiguration?

John Black: We are slightly concerned about the gap between the National Commissioning Board and the GP consortia about services that are not nearly big enough for national commissioning, which is rare diseases with two centres in the country, and areas where the average general practitioner will often not see a patient. I can only speak with any understanding of surgical services, but there are many surgical specialties, such as cardiac surgery, paediatric surgery and neurosurgery, which seem to work best when they are commissioned considering the needs of a population of about 5 million people. I am not saying there should be retention of any of the regional bureaucracies, which most people would be quite pleased to see the back of, but I do think there has to be some commissioning element looking at it between the national basis and the GP consortia basis.

  The model for this, of course, is cancer services which have been centralised and we have seen improved outcomes from that. Again, that was more or less done on that population set-up. Cornwall have had that number of population. It is a point that was made by Paul Hobday earlier.

Q343 Andrew George: Yes. Can you see how that dynamic of the kind of grey area between where the scale at which the GP consortia will be operating and the management of national services by the NHS Commissioning Board is going to be covered? Is that something in which you—any of you—have had any kind of engagement in this process so you can be clear about how those services are serving populations of 1 million or more where you need to have that operating because, clearly, there are not going to be any GP consortia at that scale. A lot of them—and even in Cornwall, one pathfinder is 16,000.

John Black: There is no reason why there should not be that sort of arrangement in place. It doesn't have to be, physically, in any one place and the clinician involvement is particularly important at that sort of level. I see this as a gap we have been asking to be filled, and not necessarily with a formal structure, but either at the bottom end or the top end there should be some arrangements put in place.

Q344 Andrew George: How do you manage the dynamics between the clinical governance issues that you are covering and local loyalty to one's hospital and much loved local clinicians who, no doubt, people believe can do almost anything? This is going to be made worse, is it not, by a GP consortia structure which is at a very local scale? There will be many more GP consortia than there are PCTs.

John Black: Yes.

Q345 Andrew George: Therefore, they will be much more bound in to the aspirations of their local community, perhaps.

John Black: This is true. We saw this with fund holding, that the more distal based commissioning is, i.e. the nearer it gets to the patient, the more the local hospital is defended.

Q346 Andrew George: Do any of the rest of you wish to comment?

Dr Hobday: Yes, briefly, to add that, when the choice agenda appeared, my patients said to me, "I don't really want choice. I want a good, local district general hospital that is safe, clean and will produce the basic services", which obviously includes maternity, some general surgery, et cetera. We know that every district general hospital won't be able to produce vascular surgery, cardiac surgery, et cetera. On the GP commissioning basis, considering when we refer one in 20 of our patients to secondary care and most of those referrals are basic bread-and-butter stuff—they are not for neurosurgery, et cetera—the majority of our work relates to a local district general hospital. Clearly, we have got to have contracts, or whatever it may be, to deal with the supra specialist field. That is a small proportion but it is one that may distort all these arguments if we are not careful.

Q347 Andrew George: Do you feel that you and your colleagues are qualified to make those kinds of judgments about the scale and the clinical governance issues with regard to some services where the level of intervention is perhaps a level above where the DGH will be?

Dr Hobday: We won't be making those decisions on our own, of course. Our role as GPs is to know when to consult and when to refer on when we have passed our limit of expertise.

Q348 Andrew George: But as a consortia what is the formal structure? Where will you get that advice and when do you know when you need to seek that advice?

Dr Hobday: From experience, there will be a constant dialogue with our secondary care colleagues.

Q349 Andrew George: But would it not be better to have your secondary and tertiary care colleagues on your commissioning board to help you make those decisions?

Dr Hobday: Yes, and I can't see any reason why not.

John Black: We would strongly support that. In fact, if you called it clinician-led commissioning rather than GP-led commissioning and merged the secondary care sector and the primary care sector—and it is already beginning to happen, which is slightly encouraging—

Q350 Andrew George: I am sorry, can you explain more?

John Black: I was told of a case recently in a town where the local GPs have arranged to meet the local physicians prior to the new arrangements to discuss how they are going to cut the number of emergency admissions to hospital. That is just the sort of dialogue we would all wish to see, with the sectors working together and the clinicians providing the same advice.

Q351 Chair: Mr Tredinnick wants to come in but, before you do, David, Alwen, do you want to comment on these points?

Alwen Williams: The points I would like to make are these. It feels to me that where we have achieved success in terms of consensus around reconfiguration goes back to John's earlier point about a very strong evidence base. Where we can encourage and find ways of GPs and secondary and tertiary care clinicians working well together in looking at the whole system of care with a strong evidence base, certainly my experience is clinicians will come out of their institutions to look at the whole system and what is the best design of services to produce the best clinical outcomes—the best use of NHS resources.

We have examples in north-east London where we have just been through a significant consultation on reconfiguration of services. It has been very strongly clinically led and clinically driven with strong patient involvement. When I talk about "clinically led" it has not just been the GPs. It has been acute clinicians as well. The outcomes that we have secured as a result of that, building a consensus of what "good" would look like for the health community but, again, clinicians engaging with patients and patient groups in that process, feels to me to be a sound model. We then need to think about how, potentially, we could get that to work with the new commissioning and indeed provide a landscape that is being developed.

Q352 David Tredinnick: I wanted to take you up, Mr Black, on the point you made about specialist services needing a catchment of 5 million people and, also, that the links with commissioning structures are already starting to happen. If you are going to have one neurosurgery hospital serving 5 million people how do you get down to all these different commissioning groups? Do you have a formal structure? Have you got a representative or does each commissioning group nominate a doctor who is responsible for talking to the neurosurgery hospital? How does it actually work? I see a very hazy tree there or inadequate coverage.

John Black: I see a very hazy tree, too. There are two ways. The consortia themselves could work as a group with those involved in providing the 5 million size service or it could, of course, be done centrally on a virtual level. The services that are required to be commissioned at that level could be all organised centrally in a virtual way. For example, if you look at the reconfiguration of children's cardiac surgery that is going on at the moment, with support from us because there is an evidence base, the location of the centres should have been decided on a level playing field nationally, I would say.

Q353 David Tredinnick: If you have different commissioning structures bidding for scarce resources, who is the gatekeeper going to be? Do you decide that this tumour is worse than another tumour? How do you evaluate the actual pitch that different commissioners are making? You might get a multiple application, like the Olympics, and you have to say, "I will pick and choose one of those." I don't want to be facetious. Maybe it is difficult to answer.

John Black: The answer is you want clinician involvement from the appropriate clinicians. I fully support the point. By "clinicians" I don't mean doctors. I mean clinicians of all specialties. Nurse clinicians are particularly important in various safety measures such as setting nursing levels. One mechanism might well be for that to happen nationally with clinician advice rather than coming from two directions. But I share with you in that I am not at all clear how that is going to work.

David Tredinnick: Thank you.

John Black: But it is not rocket science to produce some mechanism whereby it could work.

Q354 Dr Wollaston: With reconfigurations it is always difficult to persuade the public of their case. Take an example in the south-west of reconfiguring upper GI cancer services, which was initially unpopular but has now been accepted. Subsequently, the evidence is clear and people now accept that that was the right thing to do. I am interested to hear from the panel how many reconfigurations in future will be financially driven rather than clearly clinically led and how difficult you think it will be to persuade the public of the need for that to happen, say, in London which is over-provided with hospitals.

Chair: Who would like to go first? Dr Hobday.

Dr Hobday: Following on, I would like to make a point that we refer to people not buildings. The medical world is quite a small world, so I know the neurosurgeons even though it is a big district, for instance.

  On the arguments about whether it is financially driven or not, we have a good example in the last 10 years again in Maidstone. There was always total denial that the reconfiguration of the surgical and orthopaedic services, and, later, the maternity and the paediatrics, was a financial decision. But it has turned out that it clearly was a financial decision and there was no transparency for people to scrutinise it. The consequence is that, in our area, there is now immense suspicion that the policy is made and then the evidence is looked for, rather than the other way round. That is widespread in my area. Transparency has got to be there.

Q355 Dr Wollaston: You think transparency is the key to this, being open with people that this is a tough financial decision but "This is why we are doing it".

Dr Hobday: Yes. Locally, this reconfiguration may go to judicial review because it is so contentious and there are so many faults in it, as far as we can see. But when the trust has gone it is the same as when the trust goes with the doctor-patient relationship. We have to be incredibly careful there because the suspicions of the patients will always be, "Are you doing this for financial reasons rather than for my clinical good?" That is the small example extended to the reconfiguration process.

Q356 Chair: Surely the reality, in most of these decisions, is that it is a balance of clinical and financial questions. It is a question of how you get the best value for the money that is available, which will always be limited.

Dr Hobday: Absolutely, but admit that. In our local area that was not admitted. It was always, "This is not a financial decision." It became obvious, eventually, that it was.

Q357 Dr Wollaston: Do you think it is going to be something that GPs, as commissioners, will find easy to do—easier to do than perhaps has been the case for PCTs?

Dr Hobday: That is a very good question, of course, because PCTs were fairly impotent, as they were in our area, to tackle the acute trusts. I don't see how GP consortia will be much stronger, unless we go back to the size issue and we have so much clout that, again, it covers vast areas and vast population numbers.

Seán Boyle: The issue about whether it is financially driven is often key in terms of looking at changes and reconfiguration to services. My view is that clinical arguments have often been used to mask what have really been financial considerations in the past. I know we are looking to the future now but you can learn from how things were done in the past. If things were not done well in the past, in terms of being transparent and in terms of your arguments, which is what my colleague has been referring to, we should learn from that and the Government should go forward committed to laying out the arguments in a clear way.

  The problem for me, always, has been that I have never seen really good financial arguments put forward in business cases in the NHS. I am not aware of major changes in services—reconfigurations of services—that have resulted in large savings or any savings within health economies. I have not seen the evaluations of change that show you this. In fact, if you look at what the National Audit Office does, it often looks at changes which are supposed to realise benefits and they don't realise benefits. Why is that? I don't believe business cases are put forward in a way which is honest in the sense of saying, "We are going to make these savings, we are going to improve quality and we will be tested against this in the future."

Q358 Chair: It is a very important point you are making. If it is true that service reconfigurations are routinely carried out in order to achieve better use of resources and you are saying, in the event, they fail against that test, then that must undermine the case for these reconfigurations as we consider them going forward, doesn't it?

Seán Boyle: I think they did fail that test. I have not seen evaluations which show otherwise, is perhaps the way I should put it. I have seen individual changes taking place where the NAO has shown some evidence to this effect.

  Going back to this notion of consortia, if we think back to strategic health authorities, they drove a lot of the reconfigurations. That is true. That is the way it worked. PCTs were working locally but the framework within which they were working was determined by the strategic health authorities. The Commissioning Board is in a similar position, in a sense. From my reading of the Bill, it will be determining whether or not the plans of consortia will work for local populations, to put it very crudely, and whether the way in which they interact will work.

I personally believe that a Commissioning Board at a national level cannot do that. I know, from the evidence of David Nicholson last week, that he has hedged his bets a bit. He said that the Commissioning Board will not be involved in reconfiguration but, at the same time, that the Commissioning Board will have people at local levels. I would predict that, within a couple of years, what we will have are regional bodies as part of the commissioning boards which might not be called anything but "Commissioning-Regional". But they will be there to ensure that things are working appropriately on the ground. Whether or not we go back to the command and control system that we had under the previous Government depends on whether the current Government wants to use the Commissioning Board in that way. That is their choice. I will be interested to watch what develops.

Q359 Chair: Would any other member of the panel like to comment on that prediction?

John Black: I would like to say that, where there is an evidence base, clearly bodies such as the Royal College should be prepared to defend it. Sarah has mentioned upper GI reconfigurations, of which we have made certain recommendations. In that event, we should be prepared to stand up and say so to the local population. Indeed, I remember getting out of Rugby only just with my head on my shoulders a few years ago. But that is a very good point because the history of trust mergers in the National Health Service is that they don't save money.

Q360 Chair: But do they achieve better clinical standards? There are two justifications, one is clinical and the other is financial. Do they achieve either of their objectives? If they don't, then taking local patient groups with us is going to be impossible because they are right.

John Black: You could argue that in the City about all these mergers that go on there. Do they actually improve anything for anybody? Pass.

Q361 Chair: Can I ask Alwen Williams' views on this?

Alwen Williams: Going back to the issue of whether this is financially led, I would want to emphasise the point that this is about the best use of NHS resource. Looking at the focus, that trusts and commissioners and GPs are looking at efficient systems, we risk having too much capacity in certain hospitals that would then not, in my view, warrant a good use of NHS resource. Again, it is about how the system plans that to ensure that, indeed, NHS resources are best deployed.

  There is also a link to increasing quality. To a certain extent, a key driver for us has been increasingly consultant-delivered services rather than consultant-led services—that is key to improving the quality of patient outcomes—and if we can achieve that within a best value approach, as opposed to an incremental cost approach, when we know the reality is that there are real constraints in terms of the financial allocations. Again, I would say it is looking both at how you best choose NHS resources in terms of the application to front-line services and how you can also, at the same time, drive up the quality and cost-contain for the future.

Q362 Dr Wollaston: Can I come back to you on that point about consultant delivered as opposed to consultant led and bring in John Black, who is sitting next to you, because you also, earlier, touched on the issue of the Working Time Directive? How effective do you think the new arrangements will be in enabling primary and secondary care to work together to deliver those outcomes?

Alwen Williams: It is how we design the system. My concern is that one could design a system that is pretty fragmented. You have touched on small scale, potentially, GP commissioning consortia, in a set of relationships that may be more about transactional contracting with NHS trusts and foundation trusts. My view is that isn't going to deliver the best NHS. It is very much about how commissioners play their role and how providers play their role but we need to ensure that, as we design the system, the system needs to be an integrated offer. Only by doing that, I believe, are we going to continue to improve quality of patient care, make the best use of financial resources and not create, inadvertently, a system that is, in a sense, at loggerheads with itself or, in a sense, so fragmented it is unable to achieve large scale service change.

John Black: We strongly support a consultant-delivered service where the service is delivered by trained specialists assisted by people trained to be consultants. It is inevitable because we now have enough doctors coming out of UK medical schools to supply our own needs. Like every other first world country, medical graduates will want to have been properly trained to specialist level and to work at that level. GP consortia commissioning with that stipulation would be very valuable and, indeed—sorry I am going on a bit—the old fund-holding practices sometimes used to stipulate that they wanted their patients seen by consultants. The patient group really do. The trouble is the patients do not know if they are seeing a consultant or not, which is yet another issue we might take up one day.

Q363 Valerie Vaz: I want to fast forward. You have mentioned this elephant in the room or the person looking over your shoulder in the shape of Sir David Nicholson. I wondered, in terms of GP commissioning in the future, whether you think it is going to be easier or more difficult to drive through reconfigurations.

John Black: It has always been difficult and will remain difficult. One of the stresses in the Bill, which we were very pleased to see, was a stress on measuring outcomes. If you measure outcomes, there should be more evidence on which to base reconfigurations. Hard fact is very difficult to argue against. For example, if all commissioners had to insist that outcomes are measured as best they could, that, in surgery, would be the biggest single measure you could do to improve patient care.

The classic example of that is the cardiac database where every cardiac operation, 10 years ago, with a bit of kicking and screaming at first, was entered into a national database. What happened? The outliers looked at themselves and there were various reconfigurations driven by the profession, not by commissioners or managers. The profession said, "We've got to reconfigure." The outliers were eliminated and we now have the best cardiac surgery results in Europe—probably the world. That could be replicated, with proper outcome measures that could be put into the Bill, if commissioning is absolutely based on outcomes. The difficulty is that it is relatively easy in surgery but, of course, very difficult in other areas. It is easy for me.

Dr Hobday: I would add that, yes, we all fully agree with what John said about outcomes. It is very easy, or easier, to measure in surgery but in mental health and dermatology and all the other specialties how do you measure outcomes? There is this over-emphasis, I believe, on outcomes although we have to measure it somehow.

Q364 Valerie Vaz: Do you think it is going to be easier or more difficult? You are in the driving seat as GP commissioners. There may not be an answer. It may be something else.

John Black: If they were persuaded to make a condition of commissioning that you measure the outcome, that would drive standards up inevitably and I would hope to see that. In fact, the Bill does say "outcomes, outcomes, outcomes" all the way through, which is good.

Dr Hobday: I believe the devil is in the detail. When the White Paper on the Bill was first published, a lot of GPs were in favour of it because there was a simple statement that GPs were going to be put in the driving seat of commissioning. As soon as the detail was looked at, now there are polls that say the vast majority of GPs are against it because of the conflicts of interest, et cetera. It purely depends on the mechanics and nuts and bolts of how it is going to be put into operation. If it is put into operation properly, I believe reconfigurations and commissioning will be easier.

  To add a further point, yes, referrals to consultants are the sort of things that must be written into contracts. We now have a situation, and have done for some years, where, as I said earlier, we seem to be referring to buildings rather than people. If we try to refer to named consultants we find our patients in front of a nurse specialist. That sort of thing, in my opinion, is one of the first things that will be stamped on if we ever get the reins of commissioning.

Chair: Mr Boyle was shaking his head.

Seán Boyle: On that simple point, it doesn't have to be stamped on. Why should it be stamped on?

Dr Hobday: For choice—I am sorry.

Seán Boyle: There are things which nurse specialists can do which they do very well.

Dr Hobday: But not without our saying so.

Seán Boyle: What we are looking at here is a situation where we can deliver the same quality of care more cheaply through using different types of people. I think there will be no argument from the specialists, from doctors, that they should be doing what they are specialised in doing and that other professionals should be doing things which they can do. That is why I was shaking my head, because a lot of people are quite pleased to go to a nurse specialist rather than to a consultant. That was my point.

Q365 Chair: Dr Hobday's point, as I heard it, was that if you are referred to see a consultant then it should be the original decision by the GP rather than by the institution they are referred to.

Dr Hobday: Yes. If I can clarify, I have no intention of knocking nurse practitioners and nurse specialists because they do a good job when they have the appropriate patient in front of them. I have nurse practitioners in my practice and the skill is making sure that the right person is seen by the right type of professional. But when, for instance, I, myself, might refer somebody, after 30 years of experience, and find that they are seen by a nurse practitioner who is aged 25 and has not got any experience, I would think, "I won't bother referring in future." But the patient is then denied a choice. Their choice is obviously that we are wanting to consult somebody. That is where the phrase came from, "a consultant".

Q366 Valerie Vaz: Do you see yourself doing it over a wide geographical area or would it just be your local patch?

Dr Hobday: Mainly within the patch but I do not see why, as long as we know the specialist and know the reputation, people should not go further afield. Again, when I first started practising there was no restriction to where I referred patients. I could have sent somebody to Newcastle, if I wished. In 1990 that was taken away so we had difficulty referring to people of our choice. Then it became more generic. We were referring to hospitals and to a named consultant but it was all watered down and that patient was seen by whoever was thought appropriate by the managers.

Q367 David Tredinnick: Do you think the Commissioning Board is going to be out of touch because so many services dealt with by the strategic health authority are going to go out? I think Mr Boyle referred to the possibility of command and control—they are just my notes—and waiting to see how the Board operates. What is your instinct? Do you think it is going to be way up there in the clouds and a non-responsive body or do you think it will be a strong body that oversees?

Seán Boyle: My instinct is that it is going to operate strongly at a local level. At the higher level we are talking, maybe, about £3.5 billion worth of activity—at a really specialised level. Where the action is in terms of money is at a lower level in terms of specialisation. My instinct is that the Commissioning Board will be operating at that more local level. If it doesn't do that, then it will not be able to work effectively, I would suggest.

  I am not putting that forward as a model that I would say, "This is the best model." I am saying I think that that is the way it will work because that is what comes out of the culture of the NHS eventually. There is a way that things often fall back into an almost natural position in terms of the management of things.

Alwen Williams: It is early days, but as a cluster chief executive I can certainly see the benefits of having a degree of a sub-regional structure for the National Commissioning Board. That may need to be for a transitional period when we look at the functions of the National Commissioning Board in relation to direct commissioning in terms of ensuring that GP consortia are developed and are transacting their responsibilities fully. I can see in my role now, for example, as a cluster chief executive with five GP commissioning consortia in situ, that the cluster does play a role in brokering relationships in the GP commissioning consortia coming together with acute clinicians looking at how the system can be best managed. I am not, for one minute, saying that necessarily has to be replicated in terms of that geography but that approach, certainly in the medium term, I can see working well, and particularly with the direct commissioning responsibilities of the NCB.

Q368 Rosie Cooper: What powers do you have? You talk about bringing people together and getting them going but what powers, in your current role as chief executive of a cluster, do you really have to knock heads together to make something work?

Alwen Williams: For the next two years—

Rosie Cooper: Please don't use the word "influencing".

Alwen Williams: My role as, in a sense, the accountable officer for—

Chair: You hold the chequebook.

Alwen Williams: —the deployment of NHS resources, the contract held with NHS trusts, and clearly a responsibility for the development of GP commissioning consortia and an ambition to ensure that the legacy handed over in 2013 is a good one from the cluster, means that we have a range of current accountabilities and responsibilities that enable us to do things in the way that we think is right for patient care and in a way that enables strong clinical leadership of that agenda.

Q369 Rosie Cooper: Can I ask a quick question? The Secretary of State is saying that some commissioning boards are coming together now and the inference is that they are "commissioning". If, between now and 2013, you have boards which are moving towards, perhaps in 2012, beginning to pull together a commissioning plan and you hold the purse-strings, as we have just been told, could you veto any of those plans? If so, what would that do to the emerging consortia? How would they feel? What confidence would they have in themselves?

Alwen Williams: I would say it is a sign of failure of my system if I got to a position of having to veto a plan. There is a huge reliance on good working relationships, trust and confidence and the GP commissioning consortia having confidence in the management team of the cluster to give strong advice to provide high quality commissioning support services. Certainly in my experience of over 10 years as a PCT and, latterly, a cluster chief executive, I have never been in that position because you have to broker. You have to problem-solve together and broker solutions together and a system that ends up, in my view, either voting at a PCT board or vetoing someone's plans feels, to me, a system that is clearly not working as well as it should be.

Q370 Chris Skidmore: A key part of a discussion we have had this morning has been to look at laying out the argument for reconfiguration, whether that is on the basis of cost or on the basis of clinical output. I would be interested in what Mr Black had to say about that. But I was also interested in to what extent Government can drive principles of reconfiguration. The previous Government set out, in 2006, that there should be a clinical case for change. I can't remember what the mantra was but it was something like "localised where possible, centralised where necessary". Since the coalition Government has come in we have obviously seen Andrew Lansley's four tests for the reconfiguration of services that were placed under a moratorium and to what extent those tests will carry on through will influence future programmes of reconfiguration. I would be interested in your views on that. When it comes to outcomes, which are not always empirically measurable, to what extent can we have principles set by Government that can then be applied over a wide geographic area where, obviously, there is a huge degree of variation?

John Black: As I said at the very beginning, reconfiguration is always going to be with us because medicine changes. The way, where—the place—and how patients are treated is fundamentally different, even from 30 years ago. Defining principles is all that can be done but it is never going to be easy because there is always this conflict. We have a National Health Service and yet we want to centralise the most important services, which doesn't mean it is not national. Patients hate to travel.

  I wish I knew the answer to this dilemma. It is always going to be a dilemma and it is always going to be difficult. As I keep saying—sorry—at least it should be done on looking at outcomes on evidence rather than on finance and politics. I think probably finance and politics are always going to be with us.

Dr Hobday: The trouble is that principles that start off at the DOH end up down at the PCT being interpreted in amazingly imaginative ways and in a way that suits the local PCT, perhaps. I don't want to go on about Maidstone, but there is no trust in any trust around Maidstone any more because certain things were interpreted and used in a way that did not work or suit patients. Our experience with the small PBC groups was that a lot of the good ideas were blocked at that local level, despite the fact that it was in line with what started off at the DOH as a good idea.

Seán Boyle: There is not a standard—

Q371 Chris Skidmore: Do you think those four key tests that Lansley set for the moratoria of previous reconfigurations were effective? Some of them were quite broad. I think only one of them was empirically measurable.

Seán Boyle: They were a continuation of what was there already, really. Support from GP commissioners. PCTs were always expected to support plans and GPs were encouraged to become part of that support network in order to put reconfigurations forward. Clarity on a clinical evidence base. Who is going to say that you should not be clear about that? Nobody. Strengthening public and patient engagement. What does that mean? Not very much. If you look at what anybody said over the last 20 years, everybody said that you are to involve the public and often people have not done it very well. I am thinking of that chap from the west country who did reviews.

Chair: Carruthers.

Seán Boyle: Yes. Carruthers was called in to make recommendations. His recommendations were, basically, "Do what you are supposed to do." Again, the final one, consistency with current and prospective patients. In my view, I would translate that as, "Analyse what the historic patterns are and analyse what you think future patterns of activity should or will be and try and match your services to those." That is not rocket science but I was glad to see, at that point, that quite a few were being reiterated but it was a reiteration.

Q372 Chris Skidmore: There is also an important difference, from now on, with any future reconfiguration. That is, with the progress of the Bill, we will have new providers entering the market and to what extent reconfiguration will have to reflect that. I was wondering if you had any views on whether future reconfigurations will necessarily have to reflect the fact we have these new providers and that possible reconfigurations in the future will be, in essence, breaking down large incumbent providers and allowing new providers to enter into the market and facilitating that with ease. Do you think that is a concern or a reality in the new system?

John Black: There is a level playing field for Any Willing Provider which means they have to provide a comprehensive service. Certainly in surgery, which is not by any means the whole of the NHS, I don't really see many new providers coming in if they have to provide training, education, audit, research, full emergency cover, measure their outcomes and feed them back. It is unlikely, if cherry-picking is stopped and the same standards are applied, that we would see providers in surgery but there will be others on the panel who will tell of other services where this could indeed happen.

Dr Hobday: Absolutely crucial.

Q373 Chair: Could you enlarge on that comment "absolutely crucial"?

Dr Hobday: The worry of cherry-picking, frankly. We have seen plenty of examples in Maidstone of outsourcing, as it is called: psychology and the cataract service. The tick-box selection of patients by one of the services was so annoying. They could say that they had seen and dealt with a patient that needed counselling by ringing them up and suggesting that they went off to Waterstones and bought a book on stress management, and that qualified. The rump of the NHS service was trying to deal with the really difficult psychiatric cases. That is one example. The patient of mine that wanted a hip replacement at one of the local providers was told that he cannot because his BMI was over 25—like the rest of us here. If all that cherry-picking is stopped then we would have more confidence in the system. But, as John said, which private provider, otherwise, is going to employ a newly qualified houseman? What is the value for them if they are not actually made to and they can save money that way? Therefore, it would not be a level playing field unless the same rules are applied in every area, in education, training, et cetera.

Q374 Andrew George: A moment ago John Black said that we now have the best cardiac surgery outcomes, arguably in the world.

John Black: Certainly in Europe.

Q375 Andrew George: That seems to contradict what the Secretary of State appears to be saying about the failure of the NHS in a whole swathe of areas and a lot of statistics are being brought forward to show how outcomes are poorer than many comparable countries in the rest of the world. To what extent, given that that has apparently been achieved in the area of cardiac surgery, and cardiology, presumably, will these reforms help or hinder the development of similar improved outcomes across other specialties?

John Black: I hope we would see that the stress on outcomes would improve outcomes where they are measurable. But that is the great difficulty. It is easy for surgery. It is relatively easy for cancer. Of course, the trouble with international comparisons is that every patient in this country goes into a national cancer registry. You can't compare results with France where 10% go into a registry. International comparisons are difficult unless we know they are valid. The cardiac results were valid. Everyone was measuring it in the same way.

Q376 Andrew George: But my question was: to what extent will these reforms help or even hinder these improvements? You are saying this has been achieved before the reforms.

John Black: Yes.

Q377 Andrew George: Will the reforms make it easier for you to improve outcomes or more difficult?

John Black: If the reforms could be done in such a way that what was done in cardiac surgery was done for every form of not just surgery but procedure with a clear outcome, it would undoubtedly improve outcomes. That could be put into the commissioning process. It could be put into the present-day commissioning process as well.

Q378 Andrew George: But you have done this before the reforms?

John Black: Yes. It was done before the reforms.

Q379 Andrew George: What lessons have you learned which you could now apply to a reformed NHS with GP commissioning and in an environment where any other willing provider is also providing the services and competition law will be applied?

John Black: I think I said that. Everybody should have a level playing field and a condition of providing the service should be that they measure the outcome. What has been done in cardiac surgery, and is happening in other specialties where the results are not quite so mature, is a model to which any commissioning system should aspire. They should look at what was done and insist that this goes in to their commissioning from now on. So-called world class commissioning—I cringe when I hear that word—would measure outcomes and insist that those outcomes are fed back in to changing the services.

Q380 Andrew George: So the Royal College supports the reforms.

John Black: We support the stress on outcomes. As a college, we would not have an attitude per se. We think how health care is delivered is for Government and Parliament and the people of this country. But we thoroughly support the stress on outcome measures and we would push for more clinician involvement.

Q381 Andrew George: In the commissioning process?

John Black: In the commissioning process.

Alwen Williams: To answer your question—and again, today, we have discussed structures and size of consortia—what we need to inject into the debate, whether this comes as part of the authorisation process, is that commissioning competencies are key requirements. My view, having worked in the NHS for over 30 years, is that we work with different structures as long as those structures work in an integrated way. It feels to me that the competence of commissioners as well as the competence of providers is absolutely key. As somebody who went through world class commissioning on a few occasions, relatively successfully, I have to say—and I know maybe it is the terminology "world class"—I think the fundamental framework which was about how you measure commissioning competence, how you make sure you have a clear strategy and how you ensure you have very good transparent governance, which goes to your point on reconfiguration, was a very good framework. My answer to your question is that it would largely depend on how competent the future commissioners and commissioning support services are to ensure that the right commissioning processes and decision-making processes are put in place for the benefit of patients.

Q382 Andrew George: Do you share the same confidence?

Dr Hobday: I am worried that the upheaval will slow down the improvements that we have seen in trends and I recommend John Appleby's paper in the BMJ a month ago from the King's Fund who, I am afraid, discredited a lot of these claims of how poorly our Health Service is doing. If trends continue, for instance, as they are, next year we will have equally if not better myocardial infarction survival rates than France. It was not pointed out that France spends 29% more on health than we do, so there was a bit of selection and cherry-picking among the statistics there, I am afraid. The paper produces a lot more examples about how the cancer care in this country is much better than Mr Lansley is making out. I could give you the reference for that in the BMJ, if you wish.

Q383 Chair: Could you write to us with that?

Dr Hobday: Yes, I can.

Chair: Just to emphasise that point. It would be helpful.

Dr Hobday: Yes, certainly. If things are left as they are the trends would continue in the right direction and we would be doing very well and on a par with most European countries, if not better. I worry that the upheaval of the changes will sabotage a lot of those trends.

Q384 Rosie Cooper: Could I first ask Alwen how Government policy on reconfiguration has changed since the coalition came to power and how you think GPs will play a role in that reconfiguration process? Then, if I may, I will put that to other members of the panel.

Alwen Williams: We were in the throes of a reconfiguration process as the new Government came into power and introduced the four tests. So we have been a bit of a guinea pig in north-east London in terms of reviewing the processes. The measure of success has to be strong clinical engagement—I would say GP commissioners as well as acute clinicians—in ensuring that the reconfiguration proposals are based on good evidence and clinically led. That feels to me, certainly from our experience in north-east London, looking at a dialogue that then ensues between clinicians, patients and, indeed, local government is a much more powerful dialogue and set of conversations than, I would suggest, between an NHS manager like myself, and local government with GPs and clinicians being towed along.

I think the way in which we design reconfiguration processes to be very strongly clinically-led is absolutely key. We have certainly worked through the four tests and, as a result, from external validation we were enabled to go through to a joint decision making of the joint committee of the PCTs on those reconfiguration proposals. They have since been referred to an IRP process as a result of a referral from one of the overview and scrutiny committees. One of the tensions in the systems, to me, is that if there is a strong clinical evidence base and a strong financial base, and I don't think we should kid ourselves to say that absolutely everybody will agree because that is not going to be the case, but if there is a substantial degree of consensus in relation to "This is the right thing to do", there is something about the current process taking so long that it mitigates against securing the optimum result as a result of a reconfiguration process. One of my pleas going forward is not only to continue to sustain very strong clinical leadership but to see whether there is a degree of streamlining some of the processes in terms of construction of the case and the decision-making processes. What we absolutely do not want is, having made a very strong business case around clinical quality and patient outcomes, to find that there is significant delay in enabling delivery of that as a result of the processes that are currently in situ.

Q385 Rosie Cooper: I will come back to accountability of that in a minute, if I may. I would like to ask Dr Hobday: how is that working in practice?

Dr Hobday: I am sorry, accountability?

Rosie Cooper: How is the policy working in practice? You had an example before.

Dr Hobday: Going back to the Maidstone example, yes. In practice, for conditions locally, they were totally ignored. They really were. This is one of the reasons why the trust has completely gone.

Seán was mentioning about how you can measure these. We had a survey in our area that was audited correctly and showed that 97% of GPs were against the closure of a consultant-led maternity unit but it was ignored. We had a clinical evidence base ignored and genuine public opinion ignored. The interesting thing was that GPs, in this reconfiguration process that started in 2003, were not asked their opinion once until July last year when Mr Lansley produced his four conditions.

Q386 Rosie Cooper: Now you have been asked and ignored.

Dr Hobday: Absolutely.

Q387 Rosie Cooper: So that makes it better.

Dr Hobday: I was going to say that the commissioning side, as far as the GPs are concerned, is only going to work if the GPs are listened to a little bit at least. But there should be a reversal of this policy of diluting the GP role. How can we become gatekeepers and look after the commissioning side if people can squeeze round the side of the gatekeeper, whether it is because they are going to walk-in clinics or Darzi centres and all the sorts of things over the last 10 years which have diluted the GPs role? I am not saying that they are necessarily bad things but it will sabotage or not make the commissioning easier.

  My main concern with whether the commissioning can work well is that worry I have of the interference with the doctor-patient relationship—bringing rationing into the consulting room—and, therefore, all the people that have self-selected themselves on to the boards of these groups really ought to be producing declarations of interests before they put themselves forward. In our area, the board has been elected because there were so many places and not many people came forward. So they were a self-selected group.

Q388 Rosie Cooper: Accountability, as something that I have followed right through this process, worries me greatly. On reconfiguration, for example, in the very early days when we had the Secretary of State before us, I asked the question, "What happens if clinicians make a decision pursuing a reconfiguration, the consortium then believe that is the best course of action, yet the Overview and Scrutiny Panel or the Health and Well-Being Board, as it will be, the local population, were against that clinical decision which led to a reconfiguration?" I asked the Secretary of State what would happen in that instance. There is no real level, for me in my understanding of this, of accountability anywhere. We can't see anybody on the consortia—no patient or external people—there at the table with a voice involved in the decisions. Health and Well-Being Boards will not sign off the plans of the consortia. There is a lot of consultation, there is a lot of influencing but no actual being there at the centre of decision making. What would happen, I put to the Secretary of State, if we had the populus, if you like, against a clinical decision? He said exactly that, it would go to the Reconfiguration Panel. That is exactly the same as we have now without the pretend of consulting and ignoring clinicians.

I suppose I would like to ask the panel generally where you really think you are today. I understand that it is at Chase Farm, in north London, where a reconfiguration of A&E services has been going on, as I think we heard before, for 17 years. That is now on hold yet again. If that is going to happen, where are you going? Does anyone want to pick up that point?

Chair: This needs to be a wrap-up question, if I may. Where are you going?

John Black: If clinicians in professional bodies give clear advice that something should be done to provide higher standards they should stand by that decision and they should become involved in the processes to persuade the patients that it is in their interest to do so. If you don't do that, you are shirking your duty. But it has always been difficult, it is always going to be difficult and it will never be easy. But if someone like my college says, "We think this service would be safer if it moved from A to B", we should stand up and say so and try to help the local population understand why this should be done.

Q389 Andrew George: But, finally, who is making the decision, is the point I am trying to get to? Is it the clinicians, is it the population or is it the Secretary of State?

John Black: I don't know—I am not an expert in parliamentary governance—but it is going to land on the desk of the Secretary of State, isn't it? It is like a planning thing. What is the Secretary of State for but to make the ultimate decision?

Seán Boyle: I will try to answer some of your questions. I agree completely that what we are looking at in terms of the way the process is working, at the moment, is one where the Reconfiguration Panel will look at cases on an individual basis and make recommendations. I would recommend a report from them which I pulled out, Learning from Reviews, which I can let your clerk know the reference for. If you look at that, all that we have been talking about today is contained in the way of the problems of presenting a case for change that will work effectively for patients. That is one thing.

  I said, just now, that this is the situation at the moment when we are in a position of transition. What will be interesting—and it is difficult to forecast—is what will happen if we are in a situation where we have independent foundation trusts who should be making decisions themselves about how they are going to reconfigure services and presenting an array of services to commissioners who will then be thinking about how to negotiate with these trusts on the basis of price, quality, et cetera—things which have always been there anyway? At this point can the Secretary of State intervene and say, "Barnet, Edgware, Chase Farm and North Mid, you might be one trust but I am not going to let you close this one down" or is the legislation going to be such that the Secretary of State will have to stand back and say, "You are an independent body. You might not get the business and you might get the business. It is up to you to see what happens"? That is a crucial question. I can't tell you what will happen in the future. I have given you a bit of a forecast. That one is much more difficult to judge but that is crucial.

Alwen Williams: Your point highlights that the NHS is a complex system and making change to that complex situation requires a degree of resilience, focus and real passion to ensure that we get the very best for patients whatever structures and processes we have in place. We have probably rehearsed with you today what we believe to be some of the key ingredients of success. Often the success is in the execution rather than in a set of principles or a kind of diagnostic. It is how you execute well a plan that involves clinicians, the public and local politicians. In a sense, some of the elements of that, which we have articulated today, are very much related to a strong clinical base.

I think strong relationships are important and I think strong clinical leadership and more sophisticated ways of engaging our local communities with clinicians being much more visible in that process feels, to me, not a recipe for guarantee but perhaps a recipe for success in terms of ensuring that we are able, as we reconfigure, to reconfigure effectively as opposed to reconfiguring in ways that either do not happen because they get stuck in bureaucratic systems or reconfiguring for the wrong reasons.

Chair: Dr Hobday, and then we really need to move on.

Q390 Rosie Cooper: Forgive me. Before Dr Hobday comes in, there is a real flaw in here which is that we can do all that consultation and everything else but the financial base of a foundation hospital or a local general hospital will depend on what is being commissioned and if those conversations do not involve the hospital and consultants and their financial base is challenged then, when the hospital is threatened, you will see that debate will change pretty rapidly.

Alwen Williams: Our experience, in north-east London, is that you absolutely need your clinicians across the system to engage in that. We have had very strong clinical leadership from the medical directors of the acute trusts who see that some of their services are not sustainable and that it is not a good use of NHS resources and that health inequalities persist. I would not underestimate the potential of acute clinicians as well as mental health clinicians as well as GP commissioners to want to do the very best for their health economies and their health systems because many of them have worked in those areas for many years and really have a commitment to high quality patient care.

Dr Hobday: You will only take the public with you on a certain policy produced locally—we have bad experience in Maidstone of this—if there is total honesty, transparency and no vested interests with the policies, as has happened in Maidstone, and if declarations of interests are there.

Chair: On that note, we need to move on. Thank you very much for your contribution. We shall reflect on what you have said. Thank you.



 
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