5 Looking ahead beyond 2015
A new framework
50. The Secretary of State told the Committee on
21 October:
I worry a bit about focusing on the after-2015
at this stage, because it think it gives people a let-out for
not focusing unremittingly on progress in each of the next five
years on each of the eight goals [...] I want the energy and vigour
of my Department to be devoted to boosting efforts for all eight
of these goals and not side-tracked at the moment.[87]
Witnesses had some sympathy with this perspective.
For example, Tearfund told us: "it is imperative that
governments do not become distracted by a post-2015 discussion
that allows them to avoid delivering on their MDG promises between
now and 2015."[88]
In written evidence, the Department made it clear that it understood
the tension between undertaking the necessary preparation for
2015 while not becoming sidetracked from the current MDGs. It
said that it recognised that the current MDGs "were the product
of a long and complex process of lesson learning, consensus building
and negotiation" and that it was "therefore important
that we start to look now at what will come after the MDGs in
2015."[89] DFID
has said that it will play "a full part" in a post-2015
consultation process announced by the UN Secretary General Ban
Ki-Moon at the end of the MDG Summit.[90]
We understand the Secretary of State's concern about the risk
of becoming sidetracked from the urgent task of achieving the
MDGs through a preoccupation with a post-MDG framework after 2015.
Nevertheless, we were pleased to hear that DFID intends to play
a full part in the UN Secretary-General's consultation on a post-2015
framework. We believe it should be possible for DFID to keep its
eye on future planning without becoming distracted from the priority
of achieving the Goals by 2015.
51. Myles Wickstead of the Commission for Africa
emphasised that, even if the MDGs are fully achieved, many of
the targets use fairly minimal thresholds. For instance, if the
MDG 7 targets on sanitation and water are reached, at least one
billion people will still not have access to basic sanitation,
and 672 million will lack access to improved drinking water.[91]
Similarly, MDG 1 seeks only to halve the proportion
of people living on a dollar a day and those suffering from hunger
(and the global population is rising). Hence in 2015, as Myles
Wickstead put it, "We still have the other half to worry
about". His view was that "something like" the
MDGs was therefore needed to "follow on" after 2015.[92]
This future framework, in his view, could keep the valuable aspects
of the MDGs—not least that they provide measurable and quantifiable
targets against which to measure progress—but could see
the original targets altered and supplemented so that they, for
example, give more focus to long-term, sustainable outcomes.[93]
This perspective was broadly shared by other witnesses and many,
in particular NGOs, argued for significant amendments and additions.[94]
EQUITY
52. One World Action (OWA) told us:
It is imperative that a post 2015 framework prioritises
action to challenge the underlying causes of poverty—inequality,
discrimination and lack of power—rather than addressing
only the symptoms of poverty.[95]
OWA argued that challenging inequality and promoting
human rights "must be at the heart" of this approach,
with specific targets on addressing the needs of vulnerable groups
(including women). The focus on equity and rights was highlighted
by other witnesses, including EveryChild who said the current
set of MDGs is "equity blind" and pays "no attention
to who is benefitting from gains in health, education or poverty
alleviation."[96] MDG
1, for example, seeks a reduction in absolute poverty, rather
than a focus on either reaching the poorest people or more equitable
societies. As we said earlier in this Report, inequality has been
a fundamental factor behind poverty in many countries over the
last 20 years, with the poorest and marginalised being left behind,
or even becoming further entrenched in poverty. Inequality is
rising, as borne out in recent research showing that 75% of the
world's poor now live in middle income countries.[97]
53. Some critics argue that governments and donors
have picked off the 'low-hanging fruit' of the MDGs by only reaching
the most accessible people. Research by the Overseas Development
Institute (ODI) shows that those who have benefited most from
recent progress are those who were already better off.[98]
To support the very poorest in moving out of poverty, Andrew Shepherd
of the ODI said that social protection measures (which include
measures such as cash transfers or insurance to help vulnerable
people become more resilient to poverty) are of key importance.[99]
54. We recognise that it is early days to be prescribing
what specific format any post-2015 framework should take, but
agree with many of our witnesses that retaining the basic framework
of a series of international targets makes sense. It is important,
however, that a review of the effectiveness of the MDGs is carried
out to assess whether such targets are indeed the best method
for facilitating development before a new set of targets is agreed
for the post-2015 framework. If the MDG framework is maintained
after 2015, we believe that changes will need to be made to the
targets used under the current MDGs. One particular area for amendment
is the current lack of focus on reaching the most vulnerable.
New targets should reflect the fact that inequality is rising
and that many of the poorest have been left behind over the last
20 years. We recommend that the Government maintain its commitment
to reaching the most vulnerable and ensure that the post-2015
framework promotes greater attention to reaching the very poorest.
DFID monitors progress towards the MDGs at country level using
its own assessment methodology. We believe DFID should also carry
out in-country audits at local level measuring more fully what
progress has been made towards meeting the MDGs and reaching the
most vulnerable.
CLIMATE CHANGE
55. WWF-UK told us that the MDG Summit's Outcome
Document did not adequately reflect concern expressed at the gathering
about climate change and environmental sustainability—especially
on the part of developing countries.[100]
The organisation argued that climate change and environmental
sustainability will need a far higher profile in a post-2015 framework.
WWF-UK told us:
DFID has appeared reluctant to talk about the impact
of climate change and other 'emerging issues' on the MDGs,
as they don't want to 'distract' from achieving the 2015 targets.
However, without addressing issues like climate change, environmental
degradation and biodiversity loss, any progress on MDGs will be
quickly undermined.[101]
56. Concern about the level of carbon emissions and
changes to the world's climate has grown substantially since the
MDGs were created a decade ago. Climate change is a now a major
factor affecting sustainable development and poverty reduction
strategies. Andrew Shepherd of ODI said that MDG 7, dealing with
the environment, needs to be re-thought. Central to this re-conceptualisation,
he believes, is the need to bring together poverty and climate
concerns. This would help address the sheer range of possible
climate change impacts, from crops failing to flooding to refugees.
Dr Shepherd said that DFID could play an important role in this
process of working out "the implications of reducing poverty
in ways that are also environmentally sustainable."[102]
He emphasised to us that post-2015 approaches to climate change
would also need to tie in linked issues such as agriculture and
food security.[103]
Strategies will need to take account of new technologies in, for
example, nutrition.[104]
WWF-UK recommended
that the aspects of MDG 7 concerning
biodiversity and environmental resources need much greater focus,
as they are currently overshadowed by the Goal's water and sanitation
targets.[105]
57. We recommend that a post-2015 framework make
climate change, the environment and biodiversity a priority. Progress
on other targets will depend on addressing the wide-ranging impacts
of climate change, such as crop failure, the increased incidence
of natural disasters and new patterns of evacuees and refugees.
Therefore, new targets and approaches must integrate climate change
and environmental and biodiversity concerns with poverty reduction
strategies. We encourage the UK Government to participate in discussions
relating to such approaches at this early stage so that negotiations
do not become rushed as 2015 approaches.
POPULATION GROWTH
58. Neither the MDG framework nor DFID's stated policy
priorities explicitly address the issue of population growth.
We were also surprised to see that the Summit Outcome Document
does not mention population growth at all.[106]
We believe this is a major oversight given that the world's population
is growing and that many developing countries have high fertility
rates. For instance, women in Nigeria give birth to an average
of six children each. This
means that Nigeria's population is projected to increase from
149 million now to 289 million by 2050.[107]
Future planning for how to accommodate extra people's needs is
therefore essential.
59. The Secretary of State agreed with us that DFID's
current efforts to prioritise women's health should simultaneously
seek to address population growth. He pointed to his commitment
to put reproductive health at the centre of DFID's work and the
UK's pledge under the new Global Strategy for Women's and Children's
Health to extend the availability of contraception to 10 million
couples.[108]
60. We were surprised to see that the Summit Outcome
Document does not mention population growth at all. We also believe
this issue is under-prioritised in the current MDG framework.
The world's population is growing and it is startling that global
development structures do not take account of this increasing
squeeze on resources. We welcome the Secretary of State's commitment
to put reproductive health at the centre of DFID's programmes,
and to extend contraception to 10 million couples. As 2015 draws
closer, we recommend that DFID advocate strongly that the post-2015
framework give sufficient attention to the issue of population
growth so that future targets take account of the need to address
the world's increasing number of people.
87 Q 51 Back
88
Ev w135 Back
89
Ev w52 Back
90
Ev w52 Back
91
Ev w156-157 Back
92
Qq 59-60 Back
93
Q 59 Back
94
Ev w134-135 Back
95
Ev w111 Back
96
Ev w57 Back
97
Andy Sumner, 'Global poverty and the new bottom billion: What
if three-quarters of the world's poor live in middle-income countries?',
Institute of Development Studies (September 2010) Back
98
Alison Evans, ODI blog post, 'Why the MDGs need critical friends'
(21 September 2010) Back
99
Q 60 Back
100
Ev w165 Back
101
Ev w167 Back
102
Q 79 Back
103
Q 79 Back
104
UN Secretary-General, 'Keeping the promise: a forward-looking
review to promote an agreed action agenda to achieve the MDGs
by 2015' (12 February 2010), para 43 Back
105
Ev w165 Back
106
Summit Outcome Document, 'Keeping the Promise - United to achieve
the Millennium Development Goals' (September 2010) Back
107
UN Population Fund (UNFPA), The State of the World Population
2010 Back
108
Q 17 Back
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