Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Bill - Administration Committee Contents


Examination of Witnesses (Question Numbers 200-219)

DR ROGER MORTIMORE AND DR STUART WILKS-HEEG

9 SEPTEMBER 2010

  Q200  Sheila Gilmore: Do you have any suggestions as to ways in which we might take steps to improve this then, preferably in a short space of time rather than a long one?

  Dr Mortimore: Certainly not in the very short term. One of the clearest things is that the biggest driver behind why people do bother to register is either that they are politically engaged or that they feel that they have a duty to do so—they believe in the democratic electoral system—and that is something that has declined over the past few decades. In particular, if you look at whether people feel they have a duty to vote, that is almost universal in people above middle age. It's much less universal in people from the age of 40 downwards. That is clearly tied to people who, even if they're not interested in a vote, if they feel they have a duty to do it will still feel they have a duty to make sure they're on the register. For those who don't feel they have a duty—and that is probably not something that's going to change—it is all about engagement, about seeing the point of elections and why it is worth while being able to vote, and the wider problem of how you get people interested enough in elections to want to be on the register is the long-term point of it. The other problem we haven't mentioned yet is that quite a lot of people who aren't on the register simply don't know they're not on the register. That's always obvious when it comes up to an election, you suddenly get people registering at the last minute; you get a lot of people turning up at the polling station and finding they can't vote. Clearly, there is a possibility of at least a minor improvement through information campaigns, getting that message across, more effectively, that you need to check that you are on the register and you need to check regularly and you need to fill out the form every year to stay on the register.

  Dr Wilks-Heeg: I concur with much of that. I don't think there is very much that can be done in the very short term to improve the register, if we mean by December 2010. It's too late. We're in the middle of the annual canvass and some local authorities are very advanced in that process already. It would be difficult to do anything at this very late juncture. However, we do know, very clearly, from the research that exists—particularly that from the 1980s and 1990s—that there are particular practices which Electoral Registration Officers can follow, which if they all follow, virtually to the letter, will maximise the annual canvass return, which is crucial, which then in turn maximises the completeness and accuracy of the registers. In the 1990s that research was done annually and then was disseminated back to EROs to advise them very precisely how they should be undertaking the task. That very rapidly corrected the problem of the loss of electors which was associated with the community charge or poll tax in the early 1990s. So we know that things can be done. Times have changed since then, forms of electoral registration have changed slightly since then, but many of those lessons still apply. They are still very much embedded in the Electoral Commission's advice and guidance to Electoral Registration Officers and also in the Electoral Commission's performance standards framework. So those principles are still there. However, it would seem that there are certain local authorities where perhaps not all of this best practice is being used, but that is certainly, in terms of future canvasses, a key area to focus on.

  Q201  Chair: I don't know if you heard my question earlier to the witnesses from the Boundary Commissions about why we register electors rather than people, since we are electing Members of Parliament, and Members of Parliament represent all people, regardless of party, registration, and indeed nationality, and I argued that in my own case, certainly, I had more casework from non-registered people than registered people, and I have checked on that. Why do we do register voters rather than people? Does that make sense?

  Dr Wilks-Heeg: I think this is an important issue to raise. I would agree with the answers from the Boundary Commissioners. There is a problem using population figures because we don't have a population register and we obviously only get the accurate figures every 10 years—and there are questions about the extent to which the census captures the population. I think there could be a way—this would involve fairly significant changes to the Bill, I would imagine—of trying to at least take account of differential populations which MPs serve and which the new constituencies would comprise. If you look at the moment, there are some constituencies with well over 100,000 people in them, as many as 125,000 in some of the London constituencies, so in terms of casework that's a significant difference to what we would see in some of the smaller constituencies. So I do think there are grounds to look at this more closely, given the practice which has grown up over several decades of MPs—I don't need to tell you—taking on more and more casework and finding that this is a growing part of their role.

  Chair: Andrew?

  Q202  Mr Turner: Sorry, could I follow that up, because I wasn't quite clear what you meant by your answer. The number of non-registered people presumably who should be registered, not those who should not be registered? We're not talking about Somalis?

  Dr Wilks-Heeg: Well, clearly, Somalis can still go to their local MP, and I'm sure they do, and add to an MP's casework burden, but you're right to distinguish, yes. There is a difference between people who are eligible to be on the electoral roll and aren't, and then people who are simply living somewhere and not eligible to be on that roll. So yes, there is a distinction that needs to be drawn. At the moment we don't really have the data sophisticated enough to estimate the difference between those two groups of people. Hopefully, with some of the changes with some of the 2011 Census questions we'll be able to do that much more precisely.

  Dr Mortimore: It's a particular problem in terms of information. We know exactly how many registered electors there are. We know, with some degree of accuracy, what the total population is, from the census and from the ONS estimates, but there are no figures at all for people who are qualified to be electors, in other words British Commonwealth and EU citizens. Those figures are just not available.

  Q203  Mr Turner: One of the points you raise—it was Dr Wilks-Heeg who said this—the highest concentration of under-registration is most likely to be found in metropolitan areas; smaller towns and cities with a large student population; and coastal areas. Now, some of those are people who are bad at getting registered and some of them may be registered somewhere else. Is that a reasonable distinction?

  Dr Wilks-Heeg: It is, particularly with students, clearly. Students can be registered in two different places: parental address and wherever they're studying. We don't know the extent to which students do register in both places or not. Anecdotal evidence I have, certainly from Liverpool, is that many students choose not to go on the register in Liverpool, on the assumption that they're registered at their parental address. Likewise, with some of the coastal areas, but by no means all, there may be people who have second homes there, and therefore there would be a possibility for them to be registered in that locality as well. Again, we have no idea, because we still do not have the coordinated online register of electors first proposed in 2004, I believe. We don't know the extent to which these legitimate double entries on the registers exist.

  Q204  Mr Turner: Is there any correlation between the size of wards—in my constituency there are 2,500 electors, and in Birmingham there are over 20,000—and sufficient feeling that one is involved, that one ought to get registered?

  Dr Wilks-Heeg: I have never seen any research evidence on that. I would wonder whether there is likely to be a relationship. I think the main drivers of the difference in registration are who lives in those areas, not the size of the ward. So if you've got a ward with very heavy concentrations of private sector rented housing, very rapid population turnover, a high proportion of young people, a high proportion of people from particular minority groups, then you would expect the registration to be lower in that ward than a well settled ward with high levels of owner occupation, with people living there five, 10 years, and so on.

  Q205  Mr Turner: Finally, what is the difference, if there is a difference, between England in general—perhaps there is no such thing as "England in general"—but England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland? It was said that in Northern Ireland the number of people registered was over 100% of those people present. I don't know whether that is true but have you had any information about that?

  Dr Wilks-Heeg: Yes, it was one of the reasons for the Electoral Fraud (Northern Ireland) Act. There was a concern that there was systematic over-registration which was fraudulent, and there were ghost electors on the Northern Ireland electoral roll. That's one of the reasons, it's assumed, when individual voter registration was brought in in Northern Ireland, that we saw a very sharp drop in the registration rate which now stands I think at about 84%. As you say, I think it was previously over 100%. There is a difficulty calculating registration rates because of the unreliability of some of the population estimates and also the issues I referred to earlier about double registrations across electoral rolls, and so on. So we do occasionally find parliamentary constituencies in England, Scotland or Wales with registration rates over 100%. It's just a quirk of the statistics which comes up occasionally.

  Mr Turner: Has Dr Mortimore anything to add?

  Dr Mortimore: I don't think I have anything to add to that.

  Eleanor Laing (in the Chair): Thank you, Andrew. The Chairman gives his apologies. He has had to go to attend to some urgent business of the Committee and he will be back very shortly. Stephen Williams?

  Q206  Stephen Williams: Thank you, temporary Chairman. Can I come back to this completeness of the register. I remember when rolling registers came in they were meant to ensure the register was more complete and accurate but, from the evidence that you have both presented, that does not appear to be the case—or maybe it would have been worse without rolling registration. What improvements do you think could be brought about? I am about to move house, and I'm pretty sure the BBC Licensing Authority, the energy companies and everyone else will catch up with me very quickly as to the fact that I have moved into a property, but it will be largely down to me to re-register myself at a different address. Is there a process that needs to be changed, do you think?

  Dr Mortimore: I think it's true, and it's probably a little bit wider than just the moving house issue. It's perfectly practically feasible for there to be much greater cross checking of different administrative records to find out who are the people who are existing or not on the register. Clearly there are legal issues to that, there are moral issues of privacy to that, and there is a possibility that a part of the population would be seriously alienated by that being done. It would be a big decision to decide that you wanted to do that, but clearly that possibility is there if it was decided that it was a good thing to proceed with.

  Q207  Stephen Williams: One of your comments mentioned the poll tax situation in the early 1990s and the effect that that had on under registration, particularly amongst younger people. But I run into quite a lot of people who, when I discover they are not on the register, say, "Well, I registered for council tax, as it now is, and I assumed the council would therefore put me down on the register." That is almost a reversal of the poll tax problem. Is that not a simple process that could be reformed?

  Dr Mortimore: Yes, I think it is a very simple process and, you're right, we found that a lot in our research that people say that they expect that it will happen, they can't understand why it doesn't happen.

  Q208  Stephen Williams: Can I come back to what Andrew's question was about, double registration? I represent a university city and at every election I come across people who say they are voting for me. The trouble is they are doing it in Hampshire rather than in Bristol, and seaside towns were mentioned as well. I am registered—I am sure we all are—I have voted in London elections before as well as Bristol elections. Is it right that people should be able to continue to have dual registration, if not the dual exercise of that franchise?

  Dr Wilks-Heeg: I think at the moment we have no option other than to allow that, given that those people won't necessarily know where they're going to be when the election is called, and where they'll be on the actual day.

  Q209  Stephen Williams: We have postal voting, don't we?

  Dr Wilks-Heeg: We do. I suppose that would be one safeguard against the problem, but it adds an issue of complexity into it for the elector. What would obviously help is if we did have this co-ordinated online register of electors, and yet we still don't. The fact that people are able in certain categories to register in some places does open up the possibility that they do vote in two places. There are anecdotal stories, and so on, that this happened in the 2010 general election. I have no idea on what scale. So I think it probably is something that we would want to tighten up in the system of registration, as part of the broader agenda of introducing individual registration and getting a co-ordinated online register of electors.

  Q210  Stephen Williams: Can I just have one final question about this coordinated online registration which I think you said was first proposed in 2004? I had not heard of this before. Why has that not been introduced? Is it inertia, resources? It is not any Government's policy? Who suggested it back in 2004?

  Dr Wilks-Heeg: I think it was announced by Nick Raynsford to the House of Commons in January 2004, when he was the Minister responsible. I think it's a long story and you probably have to get into a discussion with the relevant civil servants and the Electoral Commission about it. I think part of the problem was that neither the MOJ nor the Electoral Commission wanted to be designated as the keeper of this online co-ordinated register. I think there were also technical problems which bedevilled it, because different local authorities use different software and there was a big problem to make sure these could be standardised in some way, and ultimately all of this slowed down progress significantly. That was my understanding.

  Chair: I am about to ask colleagues to speed up a little if they wish to get to the end of the questions. Eleanor?

  Q211  Eleanor Laing: I can give a point of information to Stephen Williams and the witnesses on his last question. I was one of the signatories to the amendments to the 2004 Bill which proposed both core and individual voter registration. At least we now have individual voter registration. But that is only a point of information. It is a pity it wasn't brought in before. But will individual voter registration improve the situation?

  Dr Wilks-Heeg: Yes, in terms of accuracy it should do. Whether it will in terms of completeness for the register is quite a different question. I think there is a danger that those two things are being conflated in much discussion. If we look at the experience in Northern Ireland, the register there now is estimated to be, I think, 84% complete and 94% accurate. Now that's a big contrast and I don't think we would be willing to accept—across the UK as a whole—a registration rate of 84%. So we know that it could impact. The Northern Ireland case is very complicated and it's very difficult to derive precise lessons from that, but I think it is instructive to make a comparison with that. In terms of the accuracy of the registers, I think individual registration would clearly help to make sure we remove ghost voters from the rolls. We don't know how many there are. We know there are likely to be some—people who simply don't exist. It will be clear that they don't have a National Insurance number, etc, and that will deal with that problem. In terms of other ways in which we would need to clean up the registers, individual registration probably only goes so far. What will be critical is the extent to which electoral registration officers can access other data sources and what data sources they do access. So, for example, if they access information on passports or addresses held by the DVLA, or something like that, and only certain people have driving licences, that is only going to take you so far, and there may be, obviously, technical and legal issues about accessing that kind of data in any case. Likewise, in terms of eliminating the problem of electors being registered simultaneously in different places when they're not supposed to be. Again—as the legislation proposes—you would need to supplement it with CORE (Coordinated On-line Register of Electors), otherwise you simply can't know whether you've got voters registered in multiple different places. So there are several things which need to be added in and, crucially, the annual canvass will remain very important in terms of updating the registers every year to make sure they're complete and accurate.

  Q212  Eleanor Laing: I am delighted to hear you say that, because it is roughly what I said in 2004. Perhaps they will listen to you. Just taking forward the point about other sources of information, my understanding is that that would require changes to the law on data sharing and data protection but from the evidence that you have gathered in your studies, would you advocate that as a good idea? We're all in favour of data protection, but is there a balance to be achieved? Should local authorities be able to use even their own records, for example, their housing benefit records, to check on their registration records?

  Dr Wilks-Heeg: They do that kind of thing already to a significant degree and in fact EROs do have quite significant powers, in terms of being able to request information from other sources. Some of them choose to use it; some of them don't. Some of them say they have difficulties accessing that information because of their own fears and also the fears of other bodies about data protection. But certainly, EROs at the moment routinely are—or at least they should be—looking at things like council tax records and other records held by the local authority. They should be getting notices from the Registrar of Deaths, and so on. I can't think of a local authority that doesn't do that. They also have the capacity to request information from registered social landlords, even private landlords, residential homes, universities, university halls of residence. The extent to which they currently do this varies enormously, and that is the crucial point, I think.

  Q213  Eleanor Laing: Thank you. One quick last question: have you made any distinction in your assessments between people who have failed to register because they have moved house but they'll do it the following year, and it was a mistake, and they will catch up, and those who deliberately decide they will not register because they don't want to be registered?

  Dr Mortimore: I don't think it's possible to draw a hard line between them. There are a small number, undoubtedly, who are absolutely determined they will not register because they're hostile to the process, but a far bigger proportion who don't register because they don't care about it, or don't care much so they might get round to it but they haven't got round to it yet, which goes on year after year after year. Of course, if you just ask people, as we do in our surveys, you don't always get a straight answer. They won't necessarily want to admit that they're not intending to, they would rather say, "I will but I haven't got round to it yet." So I don't think you can clearly distinguish one from the other.

  Q214  Simon Hart: Let us move away from registration for a second. In your evidence, Dr Wilks-Heeg, you say, "The Bill has been introduced with much haste, militating against expert consultation, proper pre-legislative scrutiny and informed debate, both within and without the Houses of Parliament", which is quite strong stuff. The first part of my question is: what do you believe the consequences of that are for voter engagement and getting a piece of legislation which has voter interest rather than party political interest? That is my first question. The second part is this: we heard the Boundaries Commission evidence. You were here for that.

  Dr Wilks-Heeg: I was here.

  Simon Hart: Yes. One or two things struck me, one of which is the enthusiasm with which they are looking forward to this task; they can't wait to get stuck in. Then of course theirs is a logistical problem—some of our problems are rather more political. They advocated a sort of "big bang" approach and if we connect there your comments, your lack of pre-legislative scrutiny concerns with the idea of "Look, just let's charge down the door and take the pain"—and they blame that on the fact that people are just basically against change in whatever form it comes, whenever it comes. Do you think if there was satisfactory pre-legislative scrutiny, the change would be more graciously received because people would think a proper process has been gone through and evidence has been properly considered, and in those circumstances a big bang is fine, after a proper process of preparation? Sorry, a long question. Do you get my drift?

  Dr Wilks-Heeg: I'll try to answer it as fully as I can. Perhaps it does seem like a strong statement but I assume this Committee would agree—I can't speak for all of you, obviously—that there has been haste in bringing this Bill to Parliament and that that has restricted the scope for pre-legislative scrutiny. I don't think there's any doubt that that's the case.   Chair: I don't think there is any disagreement here.

  Dr Wilks-Heeg: Yes. Allied to that is that, this is also a very big and ambitious undertaking. We've heard that all of the boundaries of every existing constituency are likely to change. I don't think that has ever happened before. We've never reduced the House of Commons in size before, in terms of number of MPs, without taking out a chunk of the UK as we did with the Irish MPs, obviously after partition, or I think there was another change when the university seats came out, and that was a reduction. So reducing the number of MPs is quite a big deal in historical terms, and I still haven't heard a convincing rationale of why we should go for 600. I do think that number seems arbitrary and I do think it raises issues about the balance between Back Bench MPs and the Executive and, in light of recent reforms of the House of Commons, I think that should be considered in the round. So I think there are a number of issues there we need to look at. In addition, in terms of the timetable for this review process, two very significant things are going to happen once the Boundary Commissions have started their work: one of those is that we'll have the 2011 census, which will give us a unique opportunity to look at the completeness and accuracy of the registers in a far more thorough way than we usually can. It happens once every 10 years. The second thing is that we're told we're going to have an accelerated introduction of individual registration, which we can project will have significant impact on the number of registered electors in different constituencies and at the levels of England, Scotland and Wales. So there is a lot going on in this period which I feel is not being looked at in the round, in relation to what are very big changes.

  Chair: Dr Mortimore, any comments?

  Dr Mortimore: Perhaps just one point on the census. It is undoubtedly true that checking the registers against the census is the best we can do, and it's worth doing and should be done when it become possible, but the census itself of course is not perfect. There are significant numbers of people these days who don't get on the census. I think, from memory, the official response rate was in the low 90s last time, and there were some London authorities with under two thirds response, even that ONS admitted—and some of those took action because they thought they were still under counted. The census figures, the counts that were put in each area, adjust for that and try and get the population right, but in terms of having the perfect list of names even the census isn't perfect, and of course the sort of people who don't get on the census, or don't want to be on the census is exactly the same sort of people who don't want to get on the register. It is the best that can be done, in terms of checking the register but it's going to be a long way short of perfect because what you're comparing it with is also short of perfect.

  Q215  Mr Chope: I was fascinated by Dr Wilks-Heeg's analysis of all the powers that EROs could have to check the register, but don't necessarily use at the moment, and I wonder whether he could put in a memorandum to us exactly what those powers are, the source of those powers in law, and what other powers could be used that are not yet available because of data protection or other legislation? The other point I was going to ask was whether he believes that we should move towards a system of registering people as residents, because if we registered the residents we might be able to get a more accurate relationship between the resident population and the burden of Members of Parliament, which I think is an argument that has been put forward against this Bill?

  Dr Wilks-Heeg: Certainly, in terms of providing a memorandum, I would be happy to do so. Registering residents: obviously this would be the norm in continental European countries, where people usually have to register with somebody when they move into an area, and most people do. It would have a number of advantages, in terms of understanding patterns of electoral registration eligibility, and so on. However, we also know that this is likely to be resisted. In previous years, there would have been concerns about the relationship of any such agenda to the introduction of ID cards, etc. So I think at some point we are going to have to revisit this question. Hopefully a way can be found in which it can be sold to UK citizens in a way that doesn't encounter so much concern and resistance. Certainly in some European countries there are obvious benefits that you get from registering, which is one of the reasons people would do it, aside from the legal requirement to do so, of course.

  Q216  Mr Chope: At the moment, quite a lot of people, for example, if they want to register with their doctor, have to establish that they have a residence; if they want to get credit, they need to establish that they have a fixed residence. What surprises me is that, with those increasing pressures, we haven't seen an increase in registration as a result, even though they are registered as electors.

  Dr Wilks-Heeg: I'm not sure I quite follow.

  Mr Chope: Well, at the moment if, for example, you want to get registered with a doctor, you need to establish that you are living at a fixed address, and one way of doing that is to show that you are on the electoral register. Similarly, if you want to get a bank statement or you want to take out a new bank account, you need to produce some evidence that you are living at the place you say you are, and the electoral registration is used as corroboration for that, and because of the usefulness of the electoral registration as a corroborating factor, I am surprised that more people are not registering.

  Dr Wilks-Heeg: I see your point. We have no research evidence on this, so this is completely speculative, but it probably is the case that the fact that electoral registration is used by credit reference agencies has helped keep registration levels up from where they might have been otherwise. There is a debate there whether the register should be used for those purposes, but I think it probably has that effect. However, and this is one of the things which was discussed in the Electoral Commission report on electoral registration, it is theoretically possible—we don't have any clear evidence—that people who might be in debt and seeking to avoid detection from debt collection agencies may also take themselves off the electoral roll, as they did in relation to poll tax avoidance, and given the increasing levels of personal debt, and people defaulting on it, this could be serving to depress registration levels slightly in some areas. But you would need further research on that, because it is a speculative thing that I am advancing there.

  Q217  Chair: Just to pick up on the first point that Mr Chope raised, from my experience the personality and the energy of the Electoral Registration Officer matters immensely, from someone who just does what they have to do to someone who is very committed to try to get democratic engagement. Isn't it rather unusual that there is this sort of laissez-faire view about one of the most important things that we have in our democracy, which is the right to vote, and shouldn't there be a bit stronger sense of direction from the centre to make sure there is a rather more even and high level of capability from Electoral Registration Officers?

  Dr Wilks-Heeg: I'm not sure it's quite fair to describe it as "laissez-faire", and certainly the Electoral Commission I think does what it can, within the existing legislative framework, to check what EROs are doing, whether they're following best practice, and to follow that up where they think there is a serious cause for concern. My feeling is that they increasingly do follow it up where they think there are concerns. I think the key issue is: we're bound to get variation because we have so many Electoral Registration Officers. It's a highly localised system, so there are clearly going to be differences. It will partly be about how the ERO approaches the task; it will partly be about the skills that they bring to the job and it will partly be about how they're resourced. There is no ring-fenced funding for EROs. Some of them are far better resourced by their local authorities than others, and that can make a very significant difference, particularly when it comes to this crucial thing of personal canvassing. At that stage where the postal canvass has not yielded a response from everybody and people go round and knock on doors to get the forms back, if that is not being resourced that can make quite a significant difference; maybe five, maybe more, percentage points on the registration level.

  Q218  Chair: A final one from me and I think from the Committee as a whole. Some hold that there is a de-politicisation going on at local level, that politics is now conducted at the national level, often between the media and Downing Street, at one extreme, and that the parties are more of a hollow shell than they have ever been in terms of local activity. We are seeing, with the local inquiries disappearing and not taking evidence from political parties in open session, one sliver of evidence that that might be the case, but also, if a boundary is settled after the next round, is it not incumbent upon political parties to keep the level of registration exactly as it is rather than recruit extra people—which is what many parties do, and certainly my party tries to get people on the electoral register, which is very low in my constituency—keeping it as it is rather than improving the levels of democratic participation, because you would be inviting a further review of your expanded constituency?

  Dr Mortimore: I'm not sure it's going to work like that, because each constituency isn't viewed in isolation. If the constituency next door gets an extra 10,000 people on the register your boundary is going to have to change as well. There is a knock-on effect through the whole system.

  Q219  Chair: They won't do it either, will they? We'll all try and go pat on "This is it, let's try and keep the stability in the system now."

  Dr Wilks-Heeg: It's an intriguing question and I've long argued that—I think this lies partly behind your question—the slow decline or perhaps fast decline of political parties, in terms of canvassing at election time, and so on, that has lost a kind of check on the registers in terms of keeping them complete and accurate, and I think there is obviously a danger that that could continue. Whether political parties and candidates might pursue this as a kind of rational strategy—I think that's quite speculative. I think it would be difficult to know how anybody could try to manage that process. Given that there are so many factors which impact on electoral registration, I don't think it would be possible for local parties to try and manipulate it in that way, so I wouldn't be particularly concerned about that.



 
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