Written evidence submitted by Dr Matt
Qvortrup (PVSCB 13)
This note summarises some common findings about
referendums from my 20 years of research on the subject. The aim
of the evidence is to provide some back ground to when referendums
are won and lost and to consider, albeit briefly, whether holding
the referendum on the same day as the Scottish and Wels elections
would affect the outcome.
The conclusions from the paper are:
— The voters are normally able to distinguish
between measures and men and referendums on the same day as elections
do not significantly affect the outcome of either.
— The turnout in referendums held on the
same days as elections tend to be higher, and hence make the outcome
more legitimate.
— Referendums tend to be won early in a
parliamentary term.
— Positive outcomes of referendums are
most likely during times of recession. In times of crisis voters
are more likely to vote for change.
As known from referendums in other parts of
the world—and indeed in from referendums in this country
(eg the poll on a regional assembly in the North East in 2004)—referendums
are often lost.
This brief note outlines some to the general
tendencies regarding the outcome of referendums. It should be
said at the outset that referendums are different from elections
and than many campaigns have been lost because parties and other
campaigning organisations fail to appreciate the difference between
candidate elections and polls on single issues.
While referendums are often lost, it is important
to stress that the success/failure ratio is broadly 1:1. In a
study of all European referendums between 1945 and 2000 this author
found that 51.5 of all referendums held in this period resulted
in a no-vote. The old adage "when in doubt, vote no"
does not always hold true.[37]
— The outcome of referendums are unrelated
to the popularity of those who initiate them. To viz the
referendums on a change of the electoral system in Ireland 1959
and 1969 were lost—although the party that campaigned for
a change Fienna Fail won the elections on the same day. In referendums
voters are able to "distinguish between measures and men"
as the constitutionalist A V Dicey wrote in an article around
the turn of the century.[38]
— Referendums tend to be won early on in
a term, to viz the referendums in 1975 (EEC), 1997 (Devolution)
and 1998 (Good Friday Agreement) were won because of the credibility
and popularity of the newly elected government. Conversely the
referendums in 1979 (devolution) and 2004 (regional assembly for
the Northeast) were won, in part because the governments suffered
from political lethargy and the accompanying lack of legitimacy.
— Referendums tend to be won in times of
recession. Voters are psychologically more likely to opt for change
when the status quo is less than appealing. This might explain
why the 1975 referendum was won, and why referendums in Finland
and Sweden in 1994 were successful (the two countries had taken
a battering during the ERM crisis).[39]
— Referendums are unpredictable and it
is difficult to ensure a favourable outcome. Often political parties
make the mistake of fighting referendum campaigns as they do elections.
The problem with this is that the campaigns become person-centred
when, in fact, they should be policy-centred. This was a major
problem in Sweden in 2003, when the proponents of Swedish entry
into the Euro fought a campaign featuring celebrities—ie
people with whom the "ordinary Svenson" (the Swedish
equivalent of Joe Bloggs) could not identify. The lesson—in
short—is to focus on issues that seem relevant to the ordinary
voters' concerns.
— Political parties, which are normally
rivals, but who find themselves on the same side of an issue (eg
Fine Gael and Fienna Fail in Ireland, and Plaid Cymru and Labour
in 1997) often have the problem that they are unwilling to contribute
money to a campaign if this mean depleting their election war
chest. The result is often that fringe parties—parties that
appeal to different electoral constituencies (such as the Danish
People's and the Socialist People's Party in the 2000 referendum
on the Euro)—contribute to the campaign, and that they are
better able to fight and often better financed campaign.[40]
22 July 2010
37 M Qvortrup (2000) Are Referendums Controlled and
pro-hecemonic? In Political Studies, Vol 48, p 823. Back
38
See generally M Qvortrup, A Comparative Study of Referendums,
Manchester University Press, 2nd Edition 2005. Back
39
See further M Qvortrup,"How to Lose a Referendum",
in The Political Quarterly, Vol 72, No 2, 2001. Back
40
Qvortrup, M (2001) "The Campaign", in Mark Leonard and
Tom Arbuthnott (Editors) Winning the Euro Referendum: A Guide
to 2009 Public Opinion and the Issues that Affect it, London,
The Foreign Policy Centre, pp 36-42. Back
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