Supplementary memorandum submitted by
the Royal Statistical Society (SAGE 30a)
TRANSCRIPT OF EVIDENCE—20 OCTOBER 2010
Q24 Alok Sharma: Can I just turn
to the question of how well the Government communicated scientific
advice both to the public and also to the responders? I will read
you a small extract from the BMA, who stated the following. I
don't know, Dr Holden, whether you actually wrote this. They said:
"Doctors felt overwhelmed by the volume of information about
the H1N1 pandemic issued by various bodies, including Government.
Key advice was lost within the large quantity of emails received
which often duplicated information." Could I turn to you,
first, Professor Ferguson, and just ask you, as a member of SAGE,
did you actually feel comfortable in communicating openly with
the media about the swine flu pandemic?
Professor Neil Ferguson: Absolutely.
There were no restrictions put on me. I was asked to inform the
Department of Health if I was doing so. I was so busy, frankly,
that I actually did relatively little of it. It is very easy in
such circumstances as an independent scientist to become a regular
on media programmes. As you all know, even a five-minute slot
on the Today programme takes nearly two hours out of your day
to do. So I did it very infrequently. Overall, and I did talk
informally to journalists on the phone quite a lot, I was quite
impressed with the media coverage. There were some outliers but,
generally, I thought the way the risk was presented was not inflammatory
or exaggerated. It represented an uncertainty and it communicated
policy decisions fairly well. What I am not privy to, and I had
no sight of, was the torrent of emails that, I am sure, were going
to GPs and clinicians in the NHS. I really just saw the public
face of communication. I had a few concerns about the weekly CMO's
briefings, similar to the Royal Statistical Society, in
what they focused on and the presentation of certain numbers as
if this was the number of cases in the country. I don't want to
go into the technical details. I think those lessons have been
learned, but you do need to have a consistent face for the media,
and I was satisfied with the CMO being that role.
The Royal Statistical Society was concerned
about how the above clinical case estimates were derived and their
public reporting by Health Protection Agency, from which they
emanated. The President wrote to Sir Liam Donaldson, himself a
recipient of the estimates and, by background, a public health
doctor, to seek his assistance in resolution of this and other
epidemic-monitoring issues.
Professor Sheila M Bird
Royal Statistical Society
25 October 2010
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