Supplementary written evidence from The
National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) (DDD
37a)
I would like to reiterate key messages from
the Study by Albalate.
Alabalate has studied in detail the fatality
figures from 15 countries in Europe over the years 1991 to 2003
during which 9 of those 15 countries shifted from a .08 to .05
limit. Several statistical models were fitted which adjusted for
many factors including country, trends in fatalities, employment
levels, economic growth, level of motorisation, kilometres driven,
education levels, road infrastructure such as motorway and national
roads, legal age, whether points are given for punishment, levels
of random checks. Having adjusted for all these factors the study
found that the average independent effect of changing from .08
to .05 was a reduction in fatalities of between -3.39% and -7.43%
depending on the statistical model fitted. Applying these reductions
to England gives the Sheffield figures of 77 to 168 fatalities
avoided per annum.
These estimates do not depend on any specific
assumptions about behaviour across different bands or the use
of Australian evidence. They are the average effects achieved
across EU countries in the recent past ie some countries will
have achieved slightly more effect and others slightly lower,
but represent a best guess at an effect for England if one accepts
that the changes seen in 9 other European countries would be representative
of England.
Albalate also analyses time lag effects, concluding
that these estimated effects improve over a time horizon of 3
to 6 years.
The study also finds that random testing interacted
with moving to.05 produced statistically significant reductions
at population level.
Finally, if there were one scientific study
that I would recommend the committee to read it directly for themselves
rather than reading reports summarising evidence it would be the
Albalate study.
October 2010
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