Transport and the Economy - Transport Committee Contents


Written evidence from James Morshead (TE 46)

OPPORTUNITIES FOR AUTOMATING LOGISTICS, PERSONAL MOBILITY AND MASS RAPID TRANSIT, BASED ON PERSONAL RAPID TRANSIT (PRT)

SUMMARY

The economies of town and cities are dependent on effective local transport.

The road-based system is often congested, unpredictable, dangerous, polluting and noisy. Greener modes on separate infrastructure, such as trams and light rail, don't take people to their destinations, leave gaps between modes, restrict those with mobility difficulties, and lack the flexibility to handle freight logistics, or most passenger trips - 30% modal shift is considered optimistic.

Automated Local Transport (ALT) would revolutionise a local economy. A network of light, low cost, fast guideways, separated from road traffic, pedestrians and cycles would link existing transport networks, community hubs, leisure and sporting venues, and businesses and industrial estates. ALT is now feasible, based on combining a number of existing, working ideas.

Based on Personal Rapid Transit (PRT), people and goods would travel the guideway network using small, efficient electric vehicles. The infrastructure will be more efficient, less obtrusive and far more flexible than fixed infrastructure modes such as light rail, and greener, safer, more inclusive and accessible, and cheaper to operate than any other powered mode of transport. Vehicles travel directly from origin to destination with no delays, transfers or jams.

Based on the architecture of the Internet, traffic would be dynamically routed to optimise capacity and avoid delays. Open standards would enable anyone to innovate, to conceive new services, vehicles and guideway technologies, and to extend the network to their neighbourhood, factory, stadium, airport, hospital, or any other point in the city.

Based on factory automation, ALT would carry pallets and light freight, interacting with freight containers at rail heads and ports, enabling goods to be transported nationally and internationally, automatically and with no road use.

ALT would become the default connection between other networks, improving all modes' capacity utilisation.

Based on network theory, once a network is established, every new station would represent numerous new potential connections.

Additionally, based on emergent autonomous vehicle technology, the vehicles could transfer onto local public roads to complete their journey, taking people and goods all the way to their intended destination as a true final mile solution.

Currently, many funding sources for transport research are tied to specific existing modes of transport, making little provision for wholly new modes such as this. We have an opportunity to correct the balance, and ensure UK leadership at the outset of an entire new mode of transport. This report recommends funding and political backing for ALT, and support through organisations such as the Transport KTN.

1.  INTRODUCTION

1.1  Purpose of the Report

1.1.1  This submission seeks to make the Transport Select Committee aware of the potential of automating local transport, including rapid transit and freight logistics, based on Personal Rapid Transit (PRT), autonomous vehicles and other related technologies, and to ask that Automated Local Transport (ALT) be explicitly provided for in research funding and support.

1.1.2  This is an emergent mode of transport, with unlimited potential functions. It will link all other transport networks serving the city with each other, with community hubs, and with business and leisure activity, serving as a final mile solution linking people and businesses to the global transport and logistics system. Automating logistics, personal mobility and mass rapid transit functions in a city will provide greater flexibility, adaptability, efficiency, reliability, consistency and carbon reductions, at lower cost than new installations of existing modes, serving exactly the required functions and locations identified in the Eddington Transport Study (2006).

1.2  Concepts and Definitions

1.2.1  This is an emergent field with few established terms. This report builds on the following terms and concepts:

1.2.2  Podcars - the vehicles; small and light, typically intended to carry up to four to six passengers, or fewer people with cycles, luggage, pushchairs, etc. Automated, running on a local network of dedicated tracks ("guideways"), entirely separated from other modes of transport. As autonomous vehicle technology develops, podcars will be able to continue off the guideways onto local roads, to complete the final mile.

1.2.3  Path Standard - a possible inclusive accessibility standard to aim for; to ensure mobility for the whole community. A Podcar should be able to accommodate passengers in the same way they would progress along a path; for example, flat floor access for people in wheelchairs or mobility scooters.

1.2.4  PRT (Personal Rapid Transit) - a mode of transport comprising passenger podcars on dedicated guideways, with lower predicted costs and more flexibility than other fixed-infrastructure modes.

1.2.5  GRT (Group Rapid Transit) - some PRT vendors propose adding high-capacity podcars, for group travel, or for routes such as Park & Ride to city centre, or airport to mainline station.

1.2.6  Guideway - the light, low cost, usually elevated track or rail the podcars travel on, separated from roads and cars, pedestrians and cycles, built over roads, rivers and railways, through buildings and across roofs.

1.2.7  Stations - built at nodes, off-line such that other podcars can always pass, frequently indoors, always with flat-floor access for wheelchair users.

1.2.8  Nodes - the junctions at which podcars have a choice of routes to take.

1.2.9  ALT (Automated Local Transport) - this report is introducing the term ALT, as PRT is only one of the potential functions of the system. In ALT, the podcars may be passenger, freight or any other service offered on the system, and as autonomous vehicle technology advances, may extend beyond the guideways to reach any individual premises.

1.2.10  Network Theory - the reason networks take off. As a network grows, its value increases exponentially. Adding a 10th node to a network (telephone, station, social network, etc) only adds nine potential connections. The 10000th adds 9999; the attraction of joining becomes more compelling. Connecting two networks significantly benefits both networks.

2.  PERSONAL RAPID TRANSIT (PRT)

2.1.1  Using PRT is like using a lift in a building, but across a network. A podcar waits at each station. Passengers indicate where they wish to go, possibly just by pressing a button if the network is small. The doors open, and the podcar takes them straight to their stop, with no delays, traffic jams, changes or transfers. Podcars are centrally coordinated but generally steering themselves.

2.1.2  Although first proposed at least 50 years ago, the world's first three true PRT systems are only now being installed:

  • Heathrow Airport, London: an "ULTra" system, from ULTra PRT Ltd (UK), completed and opening shortly;
  • Masdar City, United Arab Emirates: a "2getThere" system (Netherlands), under construction;
  • Suncheon, South Korea: a "Vectus" system (Sweden/S.Korea), proposed for the site of a forthcoming festival.

2.1.3  Several other PRT systems are being developed, from individual inventors right up to NASA.

3.  FUNCTIONALITY - WHAT ELSE COULD ALT DO?

3.1  Technology and Timing

3.1.1  ALT has the potential to be far more than PRT. ALT will be a more extensive evolution of PRT, offering mass transit and extensive freight logistics services as well as personal mobility, and seeking to offer the greatest range and balance of services, to serve the whole community and engender the greatest possible modal shift away from roads.

3.1.2  The emerging field of Autonomous Vehicles will enable podcars to proceed on public roads to any address, and back to a network access point. The mode-separated guideways will remain the high-speed arteries of the network.

3.1.3  However, it is important to be able to implement this idea quickly, rather than wait for future innovation, to realise the carbon savings and economic benefits as soon as possible. Such innovation will be easier once a network is operating somewhere, and Eddington specifically warns against "untested technology".

3.2  Serving the Whole Community

3.2.1  On ALT, a standard podcar, designed to a standard of almost universal accessibility for people with special mobility needs, would be waiting at or near each station. Specialist podcars would be developed, such as for those with more extreme mobility limitations, or high capacity GRT podcars, and would be summoned when required.

3.2.2  Passengers will also be able to travel with cycles, pushchairs, luggage, shopping, or even electric scooters or handcarts. Cycle use is therefore opened up for more journeys, as ALT could take users some of the way.

3.2.3  ALT would support the existing structure of many communities, where compact walkable neighbourhoods are centred on a hub of shops, where the ALT station could be built. Other modes, particularly the car, encourage a more spread out structure and a reduced sense of community.

3.3  System Capacity

3.3.1  Based on four passengers per podcar and two second headways (a conservative estimate), capacity for a single link is 7,200 passengers per hour. With a half second headway, this reaches 54,000.

3.3.2  Capacity for a single station berth, given four passengers per pod and a 10 second turnaround, is 2,800. High capacity locations such as stadiums, airports or railway stations would feature multiple, parallel berths.

3.3.3  Capacity can be increased as required, by installing more parallel berths and extra guideway links, by introducing high-capacity GRT podcars, and by distribution of destinations to stations and car parks away from the stadium. This also eases road congestion near the stadium.

3.3.4  ALT serves an area, as an integrated network, rather than individual lines. Podcars travel between two points on the network by any route available, avoiding pinch points.

3.3.5  Additional connections are constructed where needed in the network, with far less planning, cost and disruption than LRT. These would be seamlessly incorporated by the system, improving capacity locally.

3.3.6  Stations are always off-line, so podcars can pass.

3.4  Linking Networks

3.4.1  Linking two networks, according to Network Theory, massively improves the value of both networks. Airports and stations are only ever waypoints in a journey, never destinations, so journeys by public transport always involve walking or road travel to and between modes. ALT makes these connections, efficiently conveying passengers between rail, air and any other mode.

3.5  Freight Logistics

3.5.1  The Masdar City PRT system also features a cargo podcar design, but overall this potential has not been well explored. ALT will include JIT logistics for manufacturing, retail logistics, automated storage, and countless services not yet conceived.

3.5.2  ALT will carry pallets between industrial units, factories and rail heads. With automated materials handling, end-to-end carriage of pallets and light freight would be enabled between any two ALT-connected sites in the world, connecting the whole local economy to the global logistics system.

3.5.3  Additional services for other logistics, from post and parcels to garments and white goods for retail, would rapidly evolve.

3.6  Internet Analogy

3.6.1  ALT can be imagined in many ways, one of which is as the physical evolution of cyberspace. There are several analogies to make, to illustrate the potential.

3.6.2  An inspiration for the Internet was resilience - if any part of the network was incapacitated, data would be routed around it to its destination. Podcars carry small payloads directly to their destination, dynamically rerouting around obstacles and disruption, and therefore less susceptible to breakdowns or attacks than other modes, especially fixed-route modes.

3.6.3  The Internet's defining protocol, TCP/IP, defines a four level structure. Any one layer can potentially see innovation and new standards, and still work with the other layers to enable uninterrupted service during upgrades.

3.7  Open Standards, Open Market

3.7.1  In keeping with Internet-style architecture, the guiding standards of ALT must be open, and impartially applied and policed, so any company can develop new services and technologies, networks and podcars, which will then be compatible with each other. In this way, innovation and uptake will happen far faster, more efficiently and more effectively than if any one company were controlling the process.

3.7.2  The Internet, as with any open network, cannot be owned - or closed - by any one body. It is built on open standards, onto which any number of new protocols and services can be built, enabling rapid commercial and technical innovation.

3.7.3  Monopolistic ownership and operation models, sadly a feature of most proposed PRT systems, will not be adequate. Rapid evolution of an incredible variety of services for all aspects of a city's economy will require impartial open access for entrepreneurship.

3.8  Passenger Experience

3.8.1  Ticketing may be by RFID cards linked to accounts, similar to Oyster cards. Passengers would be able to specify preferences, and special needs, on their accounts.

3.8.2  Those with impaired mobility can therefore be provided with appropriately equipped podcars, automatically. Visually or hearing impaired users can set their accounts to enable interaction by large type, Braille, voice or other appropriate means.

3.8.3  As a monitored automated system, running almost silently, ALT would be available 24 hours a day, every day, with no timetabling.

3.8.4  In a podcar, in addition to the external sensors for location and obstacles, internal sensors, including microphones and cameras, could detect whether help or attention is needed for example, or a podcar needs cleaning, or diverting to a police station. There would be at least one main emergency button, to alert an operator while taking the podcar to the nearest station.

4.  HOW ALT ENHANCES OTHER MODES OF TRANSPORT

4.1  High-Speed Rail (HSR)

4.1.1  With efficient local distribution of passengers by ALT, there only ever need be one HSR station in any city.

4.1.2  Proposals to add 15 minutes to every trip on HS2 due to a detour to Heathrow Airport, for example, would be unnecessary. A Heathrow network, and a network linking the London railway termini, could be connected with a high-speed guideway constructed over the A4. St Pancras International station (13 miles) could then be less than 15 minutes travel from Heathrow, probably at far lower cost than the extra miles of the HS2 detour.

4.2  Suburban Rail

4.2.1  Eddington identified suburban rail as a pinch point. Once ALT is established in a city, many suburban rail services would be superfluous, freeing up rail capacity for interurban rail services and improving rail reliability on "the approaches to cities".

4.3  Airports

4.3.1  Integrated ticketing would enable passengers to be taken to the correct station, terminal, hotel or car park without having to specify manually. Car parks can be relocated to nearby motorway junctions, reducing site traffic. Staff movements, airfreight, retail logistics, airline catering supplies and many other services could be provided for.

4.3.2  Enabling a wider geographical spread of warehousing, catering and other facilities could reduce the footprint of an airport by integrating with the local area. This also enhances local communities' direct economic benefit from being close to an airport.

4.3.3  Remote check-in, even in a passenger's town of origin, may develop.

4.3.4  By integrating freight, ALT would also enable less urgent baggage movements on short to medium haul routes to be taken off the plane and handled by ALT and rail, automatically, at lower cost to the passenger.

4.4  Road Transport

4.4.1  Many who drive out of necessity rather than choice would no longer have to, leaving the roads clearer for emergency vehicles, specialist transport, and enthusiasts. Roads will not disappear, but with reduced traffic, road building can be scaled back, better provision made for cycling, and walkable neighbourhoods can become a standard feature of cities.

4.4.2  ALT enables car parks to be located away from city centres, airports and bottlenecks. Large ALT-connected car parks built next to motorway junctions would make use of already noisy and polluted places, and completely remove this traffic from local roads.

4.4.3  The demise of car ownership has been predicted even without ALT; with ALT, more people could withdraw from car ownership and pay for car use as a service. Rental or shared ownership enables people to pay for car use instead, forget maintenance, tax, MOTs and probably insurance, and use exactly the right vehicle for each trip.

5.  ECONOMIC POTENTIAL OF ALT

5.1  Congestion

5.1.1  Eddington reports, "89% of the delay caused by congestion is in urban areas", and "Eliminating existing congestion on the road network would be worth some £7-8 billion of GDP per annum."

5.1.2  City-wide ALT would directly reduce congestion, by competing for movements, as long as ALT construction stays ahead of growth. Road congestion would also become less relevant, as ALT is increasingly relied upon.

5.2  Agglomeration and Local Specialisation

5.2.1  According to Eddington: "Agglomeration effects [...] add up to 50% to the benefits of some transport schemes in London". This economic benefit arising from companies in a market locating close to one another, and to common suppliers and expertise, is mutually beneficial with efficient local transport and logistics.

5.2.2  Widespread ALT would improve transport efficiency nationally, but any ALT will improve transport locally, improving the competitiveness of agglomerated industries in the area, boosting manufacturing as a whole, and helping to rebalance the economy.

5.2.3  Restoring local specialisation, particularly if linked to a resurgent manufacturing sector, could help restore the identity and pride of certain industrial towns.

5.3  Freight Logistics

5.3.1  The ONS Blue Book 2009 reports transport and storage directly represent £54.3 billion (7%) of UK GVA.

5.3.2  Eddington reports most logistics operations have their major hubs in the West Midlands region, but most traffic to and from them, both upstream and downstream, in the region and long haul, is by road.

5.3.3  ALT service providers could systematically to work through the road transport usage associated with these operations, and provide alternatives.

5.3.4  A similar approach for manufacturing logistics would be similarly beneficial, enabling predictable JIT logistics on reduced inventory, and at lower cost, making UK manufacturing more competitive and helping to re-balance the economy.

5.3.5  It should become the expected standard that retailers and manufacturers are supplied by ALT, from logistics hubs on the network, and in turn from suppliers, rail heads or road freight terminals on the network.

5.4  Entrepreneurs and Evolution of New Services

5.4.1  Open standards and open access will enable rapid evolution of diverse services. As firms in related fields agglomerate on a common network with customers, suppliers and competitors, so specialist transport for that industry can be easily provided.

5.4.2  Resilience and reliability are built into the system: no problem or dispute could ground the whole system. A level playing field would exist for transport competition.

5.4.3  Central planners cannot possibly anticipate every relevant need or invention. A system with the flexibility to evolve to serve future needs, driven by the entrepreneurship of anyone who wants to get involved, but under democratic planning control, gives the best balance.

5.5  Quality of Land Use

5.5.1  By clarifying the urban-rural divide, urban hinterland and brownfield sites become more valuable, land use becomes more efficient, and marginalised neighbourhoods better connected. Potential urban sprawl land on the edges of a city will become less economically attractive, farmland and wilderness more secure.

5.5.2  As primarily an urban transport and final mile solution, ALT will improve the quality of a city's economy without needing to expand the city.

5.6  Export Opportunities

5.6.1  Establishing leadership and expertise in an emerging technology such as this will play to the strengths of the UK economy, and could provide impressive export potential in the future.

6.  ENVIRONMENTAL POTENTIAL OF ALT

6.1  Electric Power and Carbon Reduction

6.1.1  The network will be fully electric, enabling full use of renewable energy, high energy efficiency and massive carbon reduction.

6.1.2  ALT can help balance demand spikes in the national grid, managed by dynamic electricity pricing. Battery power enables waiting podcars to act as floats, drawing and feeding back charge, while lower priority journeys such as redistribution of empty podcars can be made when more charge is available and hence lower cost.

6.2  Urban Environment

6.2.1  To enable installation in urban settings, the design of guideways must be made elegant and unobtrusive - a challenge.

6.2.2  However, weighed against the potential visual intrusion are reduced noise, dirt and pollution, taking cars and trucks off the road, improved safety and reduced death toll, redefining urban and rural landscapes, creating value for brown field sites, regenerating city centres, enabling cycle paths and walkable neighbourhoods, and halting the detrimental effects of car dependency on urban design.

7.  SOCIAL POTENTIAL OF ALT

7.1  Supporting the Natural Structure of Communities

7.1.1  In addition to transport nodes, in any area ALT reaches, connecting to existing community hubs must be prioritised, to serve the maximum number of people and maximise modal shift.

7.1.2  In urban settings, people already tend to live within walking distance of their local shops. If ALT stations become the gateways to neighbourhoods, opening a station away from the existing hub will create pressure to open shops near the station, and close shops at the existing hubs.

7.2  SOCIAL COHESION

7.2.1  A properly conceived and regulated ALT should help social cohesion by ensuring people mix. It has been shown that people spontaneously share podcars if the destination is displayed. This must be a choice but should be encouraged.

7.2.2  ALT may also serve as a way of breaking down divisions in education, by making it easier for schools of all types to share the facilities of better-equipped schools.

7.2.3  Connecting poorer neighbourhoods to the network will help regeneration, and social inclusion and employment prospects for residents.

7.3  Revitalising City Centres and Neighbourhood Hubs

7.3.1  Out-of-town retail developments have the advantage of accessibility in a car-based economy, which will be lost if ALT becomes widespread. Given this choice, more people will choose to shop, mix and relax locally or in a city centre.

7.3.2  Former warehouse stores would then make good factory units for a resurgent manufacturing sector.

8.  HOW CAN GOVERNMENT HELP

8.1  Political Will

8.1.1  The EDICT report (Evaluation and Demonstration of Innovative City Transport, 2005), from the EU-funded NETMOBIL (NEw Transport system concepts for enhanced and sustainable personal urban MOBILity), concluded PRT (and by extension ALT) would work as soon as there was the political will. Overcoming fears based on being the first system, or of building before stable standards have evolved, will require political will and coordination.

8.2  Funding

8.2.1  If PRT and ALT are left entirely to the market to develop, they are likely to remain a disconnected group of incompatible and exclusive systems for some time. Even as one or two standards emerge, most systems are likely to serve private developments, not communities, and the huge potential benefits for local agglomeration and specialisation, as well as carbon reduction and social cohesion, could be missed. Carefully targeted funding, linked to desired outcomes, could ensure it develops in an inclusive way that can benefit the whole economy.

8.2.2  Eddington states the necessity of "making a comprehensive assessment of the full range of economic, environmental and social impacts of transport policies, including climate change." This substantial work, along with developing the required engineering standards, studying the societal implications, and others would clearly need to happen before revenue service can begin; so pump-priming funding and investment will be needed.

8.2.3  A dedicated group within the Transport KTN (Knowledge Transfer Network) may be beneficial to this emerging industry.

8.3  Level playing field

8.3.1  As this sector develops, the open nature of the market will come under pressure. Provision must be made to prevent monopolies and oligopolies from emerging, at any level, which would stifle the free unrestricted nature of the system.

9.  CONCLUSION

Automated Local Transport - ALT - has the potential to transform urban areas. Economic growth and balance, carbon emissions, social inclusion, the built environment, and many other aspects of a city could be dramatically enhanced. Carbon emissions targets may yet be met. UK leadership in an emerging field could be established.

To achieve this, the political will must be there to support ALT, and the funding available to progress this idea towards implementation and an eventual tipping point.

Look out for the name "PodStream".

10.  APPENDIX: RESPONSES AGAINST EDDINGTON'S 5 KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

10.1.1  In 2006, Eddington would not have been aware of the potential of automating local transport. Yet in the Eddington Transport Study (2006), his five key recommendations almost perfectly mirror the potential of this approach.

1.  To meet the changing needs of the UK economy, Government should focus policy and sustained investment on improving the performance of existing transport networks, in those places that are important for the UK's economic success.

10.1.2  ALT would form the link between all other networks in the area served, for all purposes except heavy goods. As roads would no longer serve this purpose, car parks could be moved to the outskirts of cities, particularly next to motorway junctions, removing this traffic and pollution from the city. With retail and manufacturing logistics also catered for, road congestion could be dramatically reduced. In addition to the economic benefits, the urban landscape could be brought up to date to provide for fully walkable neighbourhoods in a fully cycle-friendly city.

2.  Over the next 20 years, the three strategic economic priorities for transport policy should be: congested and growing city catchments; and the key interurban corridors and the key international gateways that are showing signs of increasing congestion and unreliability. These are the most heavily used and economically significant parts of the network;

10.1.3  By addressing congestion as described, cities will be able to grow economically without sprawling physically. ALT will help redefine the distinctiveness of the urban vs. rural environment, and reinvigorate city centres and neighbourhood hubs by making them competitive with road-dependent sprawl developments.

10.1.4  Congestion of key interurban corridors would be eased, as suburban transport would be less reliant on rail and road. As rail capacity is required less for suburban services, identified by Eddington as a "pinch point", this capacity is freed up for interurban traffic. This reduces the tendency towards ribbon developments along roads out of cities, which generate congestion by forcing reliance on road transport, then interrupting road users with endless junctions and extended speed restrictions.

10.1.5  International gateways, where high-speed rail, air or sea meet local and national scale modes such as road and rail, are identified as key pinch-points in the system: hence the numerous people-mover systems that already exist. ALT supersedes these to provide an integrated, flexible and intuitive way for people to move between terminals, stations and car parks. Car parks could be more remote and dispersed, to reduce road congestion.

3.  Government should adopt a sophisticated policy mix to meet both economic and environmental goals. Policy should get the prices right (especially congestion pricing on the roads and environmental pricing across all modes) and make best use of existing networks. Reflecting the high returns available from some transport investment, based on full appraisal of environmental and social costs and benefits, the Government, together with the private sector should deliver sustained and targeted infrastructure investment, in those schemes which demonstrate high returns, including smaller schemes tackling pinch points;

10.1.6  Charging based on the economic, social and environmental costs of other modes, could raise significant sums. This could faster realise the equivalent benefits of ALT, including the improved effectiveness of existing modes, by relief of suburban pinch-points and by improved inter-modal links.

4.  The policy process needs to be rigorous and systematic: start with the three strategic economic priorities, define the problems, consider the full range of modal options using appraisal techniques that include full environmental and social costs and benefits, and ensure that spending is focused on the best policies;

10.1.7  ALT will be an organic system, easily and cheaply extended and adapted as required, enabling allometric scaling to fulfil economic requirements. A first ALT installation is likely to be an initially freight-only line between a major factory and a supplier, to demonstrate the concepts, gain acceptance and start generating revenue. This would be followed by a passenger service at a pinch point such as an airport, or providing a park and ride scheme for a town centre. Both seed networks would quickly extend to other local neighbourhoods, transport nodes, factories and other facilities.

5.  Government needs to ensure the delivery system is ready to meet future challenges, including through reform of sub-national governance arrangements and reforming the planning process for major transport projects by introducing a new Independent Planning Commission to take decisions on projects of strategic importance.

10.1.8  Small networks can develop separately and grow into one another, as with the Internet or the phone network. Additional links can be added at later dates, as capacity is required. Planning and governance must be addressed, but such coordination is operationally far less critical with ALT than with existing modes. More important aspects to be addressed in installing ALT would be ensuring democratic accountability, given the high impact of ALT on a city, and standards for safety and interoperability between networks.

September 2010


 
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