Written evidence from Gladwin Associates
Limited (TE 85)
STRATEGY
Currently we can see no evidence of an "Integrated
Transport Policy", particularly with regard to Transport
Infrastructure.
The last Government's 2003 White Paper on Airport
Policy is now discredited with the reversal on a third runway
for Heathrow. We are not aware of any new policy statement.
The HS2 Limited Report and Command Paper has made
a half-baked attempt at defining a High Speed Rail (HSR) network.
This is flawed because the Terms of Reference predicated a London
Birmingham link as an initial step, rather than to develop a strategy
for the whole country.
We believe that it is necessary to define the:
- Expected growth in the population, analysed across
the regions.
- To determine the current and future development
of the national and regional economies.
- To define the drivers for growth in technology,
employment and economic integration.
- To accurately determine the cost of achieving
this to ensure that it is within the economic ability of the country.
With regard to HSR, we submit that:
- It is more important to improve links between
the North and the South East than it is with Birmingham. Birmingham
is already only an hour from London, and there are improvements
on the Chiltern Line, which will provide a fast service linking
the intermediate stations.
- HSR should serve the larger populations earlier
rather than later. HS2 produced a table 11.2 in HS2 Demand Model
Analysis showing the daily return trips to Inner London. Analysis
of this table showed that nearly 14,000 came from east of the
Pennines compared to 9.800 from west of the Pennines. Of the latter
3,300 came from Manchester, which could be linked easily to an
east coast alignment.
- On the continent, HSR is developed alongside
motorways, thus avoiding creating further noise and light envelopes
across the country.
- A four track solution would enable intermediate
cities to benefit from HSR.
- Four cities in the north deliver the majority
of internal travel to Heathrow. Approximately 75% derive from
Edinburgh, Glasgow and Newcastle, but these are to be connected
to HSR much later. An east coast trajectory would deliver these
much earlier.
- The current business case developed by HS2 is
patently flawed, with over optimistic growth forecasts, overvaluation
of the benefits and omission of additional capital costs
QUESTIONS
1. When will the Government produce an Integrated
Transport Policy, including infrastructure developments?
2. Is it the Government's intention to eliminate
internal air flights in the UK?
3. Why are we rushing ahead with HSR, when no
integrated transport strategy has been developed, when capacity
constraints between London & Birmingham will not be reached
until six years after HS2 is forecast to open?
4. Why are many major conurbations being denied
the opportunity to benefit from HSR, when a different routing
would bring benefits to more people substantially earlier?
DEMAND
The DfT's record on forecasts in Demand is poor.
The Transport Select Committee criticised rightly the gross over
estimate of demand for HS1.
At the Select Committee's meeting with Mr Hammond
on 29 July, he was asked why he was cancelling a number of Pendolino
carriages. He responded that the demand forecasts were not robust.
QUESTIONS
1. In light of the DfT's poor record of forecasting
growth, what are you doing to satisfy yourself, that their growth
forecasts, underlying HS2 are robust?
2. If Manchester and Glasgow were connected to
a trajectory to the east of the Pennines, what would be the impact
on demand between London and Birmingham on the WCML?
VALUATION OF
BENEFITS
The DfT's standard method for evaluating transport
projects utilises WebTag. Webtag uses base data at 2002 prices.
The benefit for a businessman travelling quicker is £36.92
per hour. Applying inflation produces £46 per hour in 2009
prices. HS2 has applied £70 per hour.
There is evidence to suggest that businessmen prefer
punctuality to reduced journey time. This was demonstrated by
Swiss Air, who typically used transit times 20 minutes longer
than their rivals but had almot perfect punctuality.
QUESTIONS
1. Why has HS2 been allowed to use a rate different
to the Webtag standard?
2. With developments in modern technology, laptops,
I-phones etc, businessmen are productive while travelling on a
train. Surely, the perceived benefit should be reduced rather
than increased?
ECONOMIC GROWTH
The evidence for HSR stimulating economic growth
is mixed. For example, Lille has seen a rejuvenation of the city
centre around the train station. However this has not impacted
the suburbs significantly. Calais on the other hand is suffering
an economic downturn.
As the population of the country increases, the need
for economic growth increases, as does the demand for housing
and the need for people to enjoy open spaces. The latter has
been recognised through the Green Belt Policy, and the creation
of 66 National Parks and Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty..
QUESTIONS
1. What concrete evidence does the Government
have on the economic benefits of closer links between major conurbations,
and have they studied the impact on other communities not connected?
2. In which sectors of the Economy, does the
Government see the opportunity for growth, financial services,
other services or manufacturing?
3. Have they studied the impact of this growth
on demand for IT, passenger travel and freight?
4. How can an overall transport policy be developed
without understanding this?
5. Does the Government believe that the pursuit
of economic growth overrides the regulations put in place to protect
our open spaces, which are one of the embodiments of England,
Wales and Scotland?
September 2010
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