1
Written evidence from Phillip Bratby (AWC 02)
1. The Transport
Committee welcomes written evidence from those affected by the adverse
weather conditions. I and my neighbours have been severely affected
by adverse winter conditions for the last three years.
2. I live in a remote
rural area which receives minimal support in adverse winter weather
conditions. The only support received this winter is two bags of salt
left by the local council for use by residents to cover over 1 mile
of single-track lane. Beyond the lane in both directions is at least
one further mile of lanes before roads are reached which may have
some form of treatment.
3. In each of the
last three winters I have been unable to use my car for at least a
week. This winter I have so far been cut-off for periods of 4 days
and 12 days. Neighbouring farmers use a JCB and tractors to clear
the lane, but, due to the gradient, compacted snow and ice prevent
use by cars. One neighbour has had to throw milk away because milk
tankers have been unable to get through and he is now giving up dairy
farming. I have to maintain a sizeable food stock and have on occasions
walked a 3-mile round trip to the village community shop, only to
find they have had no fresh food deliveries. This winter, the two
periods of snow were such that my rubbish was not collected for 6
weeks.
4. Essentially, the
local council leaves local residents to fend for themselves in times
of severe winter weather.
5. It is the county
council’s policy to build and maintain roads assuming an ever warmer
and wetter climate. For example, thinner layers are used in road construction
and use is made of road marking materials to cope with warmer weather.
We have not experienced such warmer weather, rather we have experienced
record low temperatures and considerable snow falls. It would appear
that the council is relying on flawed computer models to prepare for
winter rather than using experience and historical data concerning
winter weather.
6. As a result of
flawed council policy, we are seeing more pot holes, of considerable
size and depth, which make driving more dangerous.
7. In its submission
to the Winter Resilience Review 2010, the county council states "Short
term forecasting is generally very good and has improved significantly
over recent years. Medium term forecasts are useful in general planning
and trends but not good for weather on specific days. Long range forecasting
is still in its infancy and of very little use to winter planning
as it currently stands, and no weighting was given to the long range
forecast received". Despite this belief in the accuracy of short
term forecasting, the county council still regularly gets caught out
by severe weather. Without a definition of what "medium" and "long
range" constitute, it is difficult to comment on what these mean.
Despite the Met Office being unable to predict the weather beyond
about 5 days and thus having given up seasonal forecasting, the county
council is currently partnering with the Met Office to pursue forecast
developments.
8. It has been speculated
that the Met Office computer model contains a warming bias, which
explains why it consistently forecasts a milder than average winter.
The Met Office appears to be concerned with global climate at the
expense of UK weather/climate. Examination of the Central England
Temperature (CET) record shows
the cyclical nature of the English temperature record over the last
238 years, the rapid fall in temperature over the last three years
and the fall in the 10-year running mean temperature. The CET record
demonstrates the folly of ignoring the lessons from history and assuming
ever warmer winters.
09. There are independent
forecasters whose livelihood depends on the accuracy of their medium
and long range forecasts. It is obvious that independent forecasts
should be pursued, rather than placing reliance on the Met Office,
with its flawed computer model. The Met Office has singularly failed
to provide accurate seasonal forecasts.
10. The effects of
failure to prepare for severe winter weather has been profound, in
terms of economic impact, the UK’s reputation and, not least, in human
suffering. Rather than placing undue emphasis on hypothetical sea
level rise, warming and flooding, action should be based on historical
evidence of actual winter conditions. A cost/benefit analysis would
show that a moderately small investment in winter resilience would
pay enormous dividends.
January 2011
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