2 The appointment to the Budget Responsibility
Committee of Professor Stephen Nickell
Background on Professor Stephen
Nickell
5. Professor Nickell has been Warden of Nuffield
College, Oxford from 2006. Prior to that he was School Professor
of Economics at the London School of Economics from 1998. He was
also an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the
Bank of England from 2000 to 2006. He was President of the Royal
Economics Society from 2001 to 2004, and has been a Vice-President
since 2004. He has published widely on a variety of topics in
economics. In 2007 he was awarded a CBE for his services to economics.
Our evidence
6. In oral evidence, we questioned Professor Nickell
on his suitability to be a member of the Budget Responsibility
Committee. We focussed on macroeconomic topics and how he thought
the OBR might operate. He agreed there would be a need for a review
of the operation of the OBR in five years time. Particular topics
we questioned Professor Nickell on included:
- The structure and remit of
the OBR;
- How dissent will be managed within the BRC;
- The scrutiny of the BRC by the Treasury Committee;
- The exposition of uncertainty within the forecast;
- His ability as a team player;
- Research priorities at the OBR;
- The impact of migration;
- The impact of the VAT rise;
- The forecast for economic growth;
- Lending to households;
- The restriction on the OBR discussing the fiscal
mandate;
- The transparency of the OBR;
- The setting of the OBR's work programme;
- The OBR's independence from the Treasury, and
the demonstration of that independence, including against political
bias;
- The biggest risk to closing the output gap;
- The impact of changes in credit availability,
taxation and government spending on the economy;
- Forecasting employment and unemployment in the
public and private sectors;
- The impact of the measures in the June Budget;
- Professor Nickell's independence;
- His preparedness to make himself available immediately;
- The forecast models used by the OBR;
- The weaknesses of the Treasury in forecasting
tax revenues;
- The impact of quantitative easing;
- The relationship between the OBR and the Financial
Policy Committee; and
- The relationship between the OBR and the Monetary
Policy Committee, especially around monetary policy.
Conclusions
7. We
are satisfied that Professor Stephen Nickell has the professional
competence and personal independence to be a member of the Budget
Responsibility Committee. We wish him every success in his new
role.
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