Professor Stephen Nickell: Response to
Treasury Committee Questionnaire
A. PERSONAL AND
PROFESSIONAL BACKGROUND
1. Do you have any business or financial
connections or other commitments which might give rise to a conflict
of interest in carrying out your duties as a Member of the Budget
Responsibility Council (BRC)?
I shall continue to be Warden of Nuffield College
(See Q7). This includes taking ultimate responsibility for the
College endowment. There is an obvious danger of a conflict here.
The College endowment is run by two College investment bursars,
who are Fellows of the College, along with outside advisors. Aside
from property, the endowment is almost exclusively invested in
pooled vehicles. The investment bursars and their outside advisors
are responsible for all week by week decisions on the allocation
of funds. The College Investment Committee, which I chair, is
then responsible for assessing the performance of the endowment
and the consequences of this for College expenditure. It meets
three times a year. I propose to absent myself from any discussions
of future general strategy (eg the allocation of investments across
asset classes or regions of the world).
2. Have you ever held any post or undertaken
any activity that might cast doubt on your political impartiality?
No.
3. Do you intend to serve out the full term
for which you have been appointed?
Yes.
4. Please explain how your experience to
date has equipped you to fulfil your responsibilities as a member
of the BRC
Since 1970 I have been an academic economist.
In addition, I have been closely involved with economic policy
most notably as an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee
from 2000 to 2006. How has this experience equipped me to be a
member of the BRC?
First, I have significant academic credibility.
A glance at the rankings on the REPEC web site reveals that I
am ranked third in the UK economists' research rankings as well
as having been elected President of the Royal Economic Society
(2001-04) and to all available Fellowships. Such credibility is
vital because, in my experience, it would be very helpful in ensuring
that the BRC can assemble and motivate a team of high quality
analysts. The quality of the economists on secondment from HMT,
the Bank or elsewhere is crucial in determining the credibility
of the output of the OBR. So it is vital that a period spent at
the OBR is generally accepted as a plus point on a CV. The danger
is that the best analysts will not want to work at OBR because
it is seen as being sent to Siberia. If this happens, then the
whole exercise is doomed.
Second, my CV indicates a very strong track
record in applied economic research much of it devoted to trying
to understand how the British economy works. This work has had
a strong impact. My work on the macroeconomics of unemployment
in the 1980s was started at the behest of HMT and my work on competition
and corporate performance in the 1990s was a major factor underlying
the transformation of UK competition policy after 1997. I have
been consulted personally by Ministers on many occasions from
the 1970s to the present day.
Third, my six years on the MPC, helping to produce
the quarterly forecasts, were a vital part of the monetary policy
process. I think that I personally played an important role in
the production of these forecasts as a bridge between the MPC
and the forecast team. You might consult Spencer Dale on this
issue as he was in charge of the Bank Forecasting Team throughout.
The combination of a lifetime of applied research plus my experience
on the MPC has given me a good intuition about how the UK economy
works.
Fourth, my analytical abilities are very strong.
For example, you might consult my piece in the Bank of England
Quarterly Bulletin (Winter 2003) for an analysis of the consequences
for monetary policy of the switch from RPI to CPI in the inflation
target. I think this analysis stands up pretty well and was taken
on board immediately by the City. Other papers you might like
to peruse are noted under Q5.
Fifth, my work on the MPC indicates both independence
of thought and integrity. I was the first external member to be
reappointed and I think I can safely say that I was widely trusted.
I have excellent communication skills, performed on numerous occasions
before the Treasury Committee, not least in my confirmation hearings
at a time when the Treasury Committee was a great deal more aggressive
than it is today.
Sixth, my ability to lead and motivate a team
of analysts is undoubted because of my high level of technical
expertise allied to strong communication skills. This is not unrelated
to my successful supervision of no less than 70 PhD/DPhil students.
My career as an academic economist reflects my ability to maintain
a high level of academic credibility with a strong role in economic
policy both here and abroad. Thus last year I was invited by Anders
Borg (Swedish Finance Minister) to speak to European Finance Ministers
at the Ecofin seminar in Gothenburg on the topic of what is to
be done in European Labour Market Policy during and following
the recession.
5. Which of your publications or papers are
of most relevance to your future work on the BRC?
I have written a great deal about how the economy
works. To get a good feel about how I set about analysing some
of the key issues when it comes to generating forecasts, it might
be worth glancing at my pieces in the Bank of England Quarterly
Bulletin in Winter 2003, Autumn 2004, Spring 2005, Summer 2005
and Summer 2006.
B. ACCOUNTABILITY
6. If you were to make yourself available
for reappointment as a member of the BRC at the end of your term,
what criteria should be used to assess your individual record?
The ultimate criterion is the perceived success
of the fiscal process. That is, the fiscal position remains under
control and does not deviate systematically from previously announced
plans unless the plans themselves are adjusted as the result of
political decisions. This is achieved by continuously updating
economic and fiscal forecasts in response to new information with
HMG responding by adjusting the levers of fiscal policy in order
to offset deviations from the previous plans caused by unforeseen
shocks. So I should be judged on the following: Has this fiscal
process been judged a success so far? Has the OBR gained a reputation
for competence, independence, transparency and openness? Have
I personally contributed to the competence, independence, transparency
and openness of the OBR in the view of Robert Chote, The Treasury
Committee, financial commentators, academics and the general public?
C. OTHER PROFESSIONAL
ACTIVITIES
7. What other professional activities do
you expect to continue/undertake in addition to your position
on the BRC and how do you intend reconciling these activities
with your position as a member of the BRC?
I shall continue as Warden of Nuffield. Dealing
with College and University matters can be fitted in around my
BRC duties. In any event, a proportion of College duties are concentrated
on evenings and weekends. Currently, I have significant time available
for research and for outside activities such as membership of
the Boards of the UK Statistics Authority and the ONS, as well
as various other bodies. I would switch all this available space
to BRC duties. Initially this would involve some juggling because
of commitments previously entered into. However, in my judgement,
it is perfectly possible to continue as Warden of Nuffield until
my finishing date (31 August, 2012) while fulfilling my BRC duties.
D. PERFORMANCE
OF THE
ROLE
8. What will be your priorities as a member
of the BRC?
The top priority is to make this new, essentially
untried, system of controlling UK fiscal policy actually work.
This is a serious challenge and many are sceptical. First, I would
try to ensure the fundamental competence of the OBR in generating
macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts. This covers both the quality
of the work and the adequacy of the resources. Second, I would
try to ensure that the OBR is independent, is seen to be independent
and has absolute ownership of its forecasts. This is, of course,
extremely tricky given the inevitable role that various government
departments will have to play in the development of these forecasts.
A lot will depend on our ability to explain the thinking underlying
the forecast in an open fashion. Finally, I would want to develop
the reputation of the OBR not simply as a forecaster but as a
source of well regarded independent analysis of longer term fiscal
policy issues such as sustainability, public sector liabilities
and so on.
9. How do you think the BRC should operate?
By one member, one vote on issues where consensus may not be achieved,
or with the Chairman charged by the legislation to take responsibility
for decisions?
It is worth contrasting the BRC with the MPC.
Members of the MPC are individually responsible for their public
votes. Since their decisions on interest rates differ but the
MPC only produces one forecast, it is only to be expected that
MPC members will, either formally or informally, explain how their
own views on the future differ from those embedded in the forecast.
The BRC does not take economic policy decisions but is charged
with producing forecasts which others use to help make policy.
When producing the forecast, it seems very unlikely that the three
members of the BRC will use voting as a method of decision making.
The interactive process of generating a forecast will inevitably
involve differences of views and compromises must be made. However,
it seems inconceivable to me that we will end up with a forecast
that the Chairman really does not like. Furthermore, it also seems
inconceivable to me that other members of the BRC will publicly
dissent from the published forecast.
18 October 2010
STEPHEN JOHN NICKELL CBE, FBA: CURRICULUM VITAE
DATE OF
BIRTH: 25 APRIL
1944
| ACADEMIC HISTORY
|
1962-65 | Pembroke College, Cambridge. BA Mathematics
|
| 1965-68 | Mathematics Teacher, Hendon County School, London
|
| 1968-70 | London School of Economics. M.Sc. Mathematical Economics and Econometrics (distinction). Ely Devons Prize
|
| 1970-77 | Lecturer in Economics, London School of Economics
|
| 1974-75 | Visiting Research Fellow, Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de I'Administration Economique, Paris
|
| 1977-79 | Reader in Economics, London School of Economics
|
| 1979 | Visiting Research Associate, Universiry of Princeton (Industrial Relations Section)
|
| 1979-84 | Professor of Economics, London School of Economics
|
| 1984-98 | Professor of Economics and Director of the Institute of Economics and Statistics, University of Oxford. Professorial Fellow of Nuffield College
|
| 1998-2005 | School Professor of Economics, London School of Economics
|
| 2000-06 | Bank of England, External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee
|
| 2004- | Member, Economic Research Advisory Panel, Welsh Assembly Government
|
| 2006- | Warden of Nuffield College, Oxford
|
| 2006-09 | Chair of the Board, National Housing and Planning Advice Unit (Dept for Communities and Local Government)
|
| 2007- | Chair, Advisory Committee on Civil Costs (Ministry of Justice)
|
| 2008- | Board Member, UK Statistics Authority
|
ACADEMIC HONOURS
|
1980 | Fellow of the Econometric Society
|
| 1993 | Fellow of the British Academy
|
| 1997 | Foreign Honorary Member of the American Economic Association
|
| 2001-04 | President, Royal Economic Society
|
| 2003 | Honorary Fellow of Nuffield College, Oxford
|
| 2003 | ISI Highly Cited Researcher
|
| 2004 | Fellow of the European Economic Association
|
| 2006 | Foreign Honorary Member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences
|
| 2006 | Honorary Fellow, Pembroke College, Cambridge
|
| 2007 | Fellow of the Society of Labor Economists
|
| 2008 | Honorary Doctor of Science, University of Warwick
|
| 2008 | IZA Prize for Labor Economics
|
| 2009 | DIW Senior Prize (best scientific publication using German Socio-Economic Panel, 2007-08)
|
GENERAL ACADEMIC ACTIVITIES
|
1973-87 | Editorial Board, Review of Economic Studies
|
| 1974-75 | Assistant Editor, Review of Economic Studies
|
| 1975-78 | Joint Managing Editor, Review of Economic Studies
|
| 1977-79, 1981-83 | Programme Committee, Econometric Society European Meetings
|
| 1980, 1985 | Programme Committee, Econometric Society World Congress
|
| 1981-89 | Treasury Academic Panel
|
| 1981-2000 | Associate Editor, Economic Journal
|
| 1983-87 | Associate Editor, International Journal of Industrial Organization
|
| 1983 | Fellow, Centre for Economic Policy Research
|
| 1984-98 | Editor, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
|
| 1984-94 | Council, Royal Economic Society
|
| 1984-87 | Economic Affairs Committee, ESRC (vice-chairman 1985-87)
|
| 1985-88 | Founding Council Member, European Economic Association
|
| 1985 | Nog Lecture, Austrian Economic Association
|
| 1987-93 | Council, Econometric Society
|
| 1987-90 | Research Grants Board, ESRC; Industry, Economics and Environment Research Development Group, ESRC
|
| 1987 | President's Lecture, Scottish Economic Association
|
| 1988-94 | Scientific Council of the Center for Economic Research, University of Tilberg, Holland
|
| 1990-94 | Chairman, Research Grants Board, ESRC; Member of Council, ESRC
|
| 1990- | Advisory Board of the Institute for International Economic Studies, University of Stockholm, Sweden
|
| 1990 | Governor of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research
|
| 1992 | Mitsui lectures, University of Birmingham
|
| 1994 | International Board of Advisers of the Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam
|
| 1996-2000 | Labour Markets Panel, H.M. Treasury
|
| 1998 | Adam Smith Lecture, European Association of Labour Economists
|
| 1999-2005 | Council, European Economic Association
|
| 1999-2002 | President, European Association of Labour Economists
|
| 2000- | Member, Leverhulme Trust Advisory Panel
|
| 2001 | President, Economics Section of the British Association for the Advancement of Science.
|
| 2001 | Honorary Member of the Marshall Society, University of Cambridge
|
| 2001- | Chair, Advisory Board of the Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, UCL
|
| 2002-2008 | Chair, Council of Management, National Institute of Economic and Social Research
|
| 2004- | Vice-President, Royal Economic Society
|
| 2004 | LoWER Lecture, Low-Wage Employment Research Network, University of Amsterdam
|
| 2005 | Keynes Lecture. British Academy
|
| 2007 | Scientific Advisory Council, Kiel Institute for the World Economy
|
PUBLICATIONS
Books
The Investment Decisions of Firms, Cambridge Economic Handbook
Series, Cambridge University Press, 1978
Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market,
Oxford University Press, 1991 (with R Jackman and R Layard)
(2nd edition, 2005)
The Unemployment Crisis, Oxford University Press, 1994
(with R Jackman and R Layard)
The Performance of Companies, Blackwells, 1995
Edited Books:
The Rise in Unemployment, Basil Blackwell Ltd., 1987 (with C Bean
and R Layard)
The Nature of Unemployment in Britain: Studies of the DHSS
Cohort, Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1989 (with W Narendranathan,
J Stern and J Garcia)
Articles in Refereed Journals:
"On the Role of Expectations in the Pure Theory of Investment",
The Review of Economic Studies, January 1974
"On Expectations, Government Policy and the Rate of Investment",
Economica, August 1974
"A Closer Look at Replacement Investment", Journal
of Economic Theory, February 1975
"Wage Structures and Quit Rates", International Economic
Review, February 1976
"On the Properties of Linear Decision Rules and Their Derivation
by an Iterative Procedure", Econometrica, March 1976
(with J Tymes)
"The Structure of Hours and Earnings in British Manufacturing
Industry", Oxford Economic Papers, July 1976 (with
D Metcalf and R Richardson)
"The Influence of Uncertainty On Investment", Economic
Journal, March 1977
"Uncertainty and Lags in the Investment Decisions of Firms",
Review of Economic Studies, June 1977
"Trade Unions and the Position of Women in the Industrial
Wage Structure", The British Journal of Industrial Relations,
July 1977
"Monopolistic Industries and Monopoly Profits", Economic
Journal, June 1978 (with D Metcalf)
"The Effect of Collective Bargaining on Relative and Absolute
Wages", British Journal of Industrial Relations, November
1978 (with R Layard and D Metcalf)
"Fixed Costs, Employment and Labour Demand Over the Cycle",
Economica, November 1978
"The Effect of Unemployment and Related Benefits on the Duration
of Unemployment", Economic Journal, March 1979
"Estimating the Probability of Leaving Unemployment",
Econometrica, September 1979
"Education and Lifetime Patterns of Unemployment", Journal
of Political Economy, October (Part II) 1979
"Unemployment and the Structure of Labour Costs" in
the Carnegie-Rochester Public Policy Conference Series, No 11,
published as a supplement to the Journal of Monetary Economics,
1979
"The Case for Subsidising Extra Jobs", Economic Journal,
March 1980 (with R Layard)
"The Analysis of Re-Employment Probabilities for the Unemployed",
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 143,
Part 2, 1980 (with Tony Lancaster)
"A Picture of Male Unemployment in Britain", Economic
Journal, December 1980
"Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects", Econometrica,
November 1981
"The Determinants of Occupational Success in Britain",
Review of Economic Studies, January 1982
"Wages and Unemployment: A General Framework", Economic
Journal, March 1982
"Still Searching for an Explanation of Unemployment in
Inter-War Britain", Journal of Political Economy, April
1982 (with D Metcalf and N Floros)
"The Determinants of Equilibrium Unemployment in Britain",
Economic Journal, September 1982
"Unemployment in the United Kingdom Since the War",
Review of Economic Studies, October 1982 (with M Andrews)
"Occupational Mobility in Great Britain", Research
in Labor Economics, Vol V, 1982 (with D Metcalf)
"Unions, Real Wages and Employment In Britain 1951-79",
Oxford Economic Papers, November, 1983 (with M Andrews)
"The Estimation of Vintage Production Models In UK Manufacturing",
Swedish Journal of Economics, 85, 1983 (with G Mizon)
"An Investigation of the Determinants of Manufacturing Employment
in the UK", Review of Economic Studies, October 1984
"Individual Earnings in the U.S. Another Look at Unionization,
Schooling, Sickness and Unemployment Using PSID Data", Journal
of Labor Economics, January 1985 (with G Chowdhury)
"The Causes of British Unemployment", National Institute
Economic Review, February, 1985 (with R Layard)
"Error Correction, Partial Adjustment and All That: An Expository
Note", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, May
1985
"Unemployment Benefits Revisited", Economic Journal,
June 1985 (with W Narendranathan and J Stern)
"The Governments' Policy for Jobs: An Analysis", Oxford
Review of Economic Policy, 1, No 2, 1985
"Modelling the Process of Job Search", Journal of
Econometrics, 28, 1985 (with W Narendranathan)
"An Investigation into the Incidence and Dynamic Structure
of Sickness and Unemployment in Britain, 1965-75", Journal
of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, Part 3, 1985 (with
W Narendranathan and D Metcalf)
"Understanding Unemployment", Empirica (Austrian
Economic Papers), 12, No 2, 1985
"Unemployment, Real Wages and Aggregate Demand in Europe,
Japan and the U.S.", Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series
on Public Policy, Vol 23, Autumn, 1985 (with R Layard)
"Unemployment in Britain", Economica (Special
Issue on Unemployment), August, 1986 (with R Layard)
"The Rise of Unemployment. A Multi-Country Study", Economica
(Special Issue on Unemployment), August, 1986 (with C Bean
and R Layard)
"A Disaggregated Disequilibrium Model of the Labour Market,
Oxford Economic Papers, November, 1986 (with M Andrews)
"Why is Wage Inflation in Britain So High?", Oxford
Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, February, 1987
"Unions, Wages and Employment", European Economic
Review, 32, 4, 1988 (with S Wadhwani)
"The Thatcher Miracle"?, American Economic Review,
79, May, 1989 (with R Layard) (Also in German Translation
in Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, 15, 1989)
"Real Wages and Unemployment in Britain during the 1930s",
Economic Journal, 99, June, 1989 (with N H Dimsdale and
N Horsewood)
"The Real Wage-Employment Relationship in the United States",
Journal of Labor Economics, 8, January, 1990 (with J Symons)
"Unemployment: A Survey", Economic Journal, 100,
June, 1990. (Also in A Oswald (ed), Surveys in Economics, vol
1, Basil Blackwell, Oxford, 1991.)
"Insider Forces and Wage Determination", Economic
Journal, 100, June, 1990 (with S Wadhwani)
"Turnover in UK Manufacturing", Economica, August,
1990 (with S Burgess)
"Is Unemployment Lower if Unions Bargain over Employment",
Quarterly Journal of Economics, August, 1990 (with R Layard).
(Also in Y Weiss and G Fishelson (eds), Advances in the Theory
and Measurement of Unemployment, Macmillan, 1990)
"Inflation and the UK Labour Market", Oxford Review
of Economic Policy, 8, No 4, 1990. (Also in F Hahn (ed), The
Market, Practice and Policy, Macmillan, London, 1992)
"Unions and Investment in British Manufacturing Industry",
British Journal of Industrial Relations, March, 1991 (with
K Denny)
"Employment Determination in British Industry: Investigations
using Micro-Data", Review of Economic Studies, October,
1991 (with S Wadhwani)
"Productivity Growth in UK Companies", European Economic
Review, vol 36, June, 1992 (with S Wadhwani and M Wall)
"Unions and Investment in British Industry", Economic
Journal, July, 1992 (with K Denny)
"The Occupational Success of Young Men Who Left School at
Sixteen", Oxford Economic Papers, July, 1992 (with
S Connolly and J Micklewright)
"An Investigation into the Power of Insiders in Wage Determination",
European Economic Review, December, 1992 (with P Kong)
"Cohort Size Effects on the Wages of Young Men in Britain
1961-89", British Journal of Industrial Relations, September,
1993
"Wages and Product Market Power", Economica, November,
1994 (with J Vainomaki and S Wadhwani)
"The Collapse in Demand for the Unskilled and Unemployment
Across the OECD", Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol
11(1), 1995 (with B Bell)
"The Distribution of Wages and Unemployment", American
Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings), May, 1996 (with
B Bell)
"Competition and Corporate Performance", Journal
of Political Economy, August, 1996
"What Makes Firms Perform Well?", European Economic
Review, April, 1997 (with D Nicolitsas and N Dryden)
"Wages, Restrictive Practices and Productivity", Labour
Economics, August, 1997 (with D Nicolitsas)
"Unemployment and Labor Market Rigidities: Europe versus
North America", Journal Economic Perspectives, Summer,
1997
"Unemployment: Questions and Some Answers", Economic.Journal,
108, May, 1998
"Product Markets and Labour Markets", Labour Economics,
March, 1999
"How Does Financial Pressure Affect Firms?", European
Economic Review, 43 (8), 1999 (with D Nicolitsas)
"Why do Unemployment Rates Differ?", Wirtschafts
Politische Blatter, 46 (3), 1999
"Finnish Unemployment: A View from Outside", Finnish
Economic Papers. 12 (2), 1999
"The Netherlands and the United Kingdom: A European Unemployment
Miracle?", Economic Policy, 30 April 2000 (with J
van Ours)
"Why Has Unemployment in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom
Fallen So Much?" Canadian Public Policy, XXVI, July
2000 (with J van Ours)
"Does Doing Badly Encourage Management Innovation?",
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 63(1), February,
2001 (with D Nicolitsas and M Patterson)
"A Picture of Job Insecurity Facing British Men", Economic
Journal, 112, January, 2002 (with P Jones and G Quintini)
"The Consequences of the Decline in Public Sector Pay in
Britain: A Little Bit of Evidence", Economic Journal (Features)
112, February, 2002 (with G Quintini)
"Wage Equations, Wage Curves and All That", Labour
Economics, 9(3), 2002 (with B Bell and G Quintini)
"Fundamental Changes in the UK Labour Market", Oxford
Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 63 (Special Issue),
December, 2001
"The Recent Performance of the UK Labour Market", Oxford
Review of Economic Policy, 18(2), Summer, 2002 (with G Quintini)
"Labour Market Institutions and Unemployment in OECD Countries",
CESifo DICE Report 1(2), Summer 2003
"Nominal Wage Rigidity and the Rate of Inflation", Economic
Journal, 113, October 2003 (with G Quintini)
"Poverty and Worklessness In Britain". Economic Journal,
114, March (Conference Papers), 2004
"Unemployment in the OEED Since the 1960s. What do we know?",
Economic Journal, 115, January 2005 (with L Nunziata, W
Ochel)
"An Open-Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the UK",
Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(6), September 2005 (with
N Batini and B Jackson)
"The Responsiveness of Wages to Labour Market Conditions
in the UK", Labour Economics, 12(5), October 2005
(with G Faggio)
"Patterns of Work Across the OECD", Economic Journal
(Features), 117, June, 2007 (with G Faggio)
"The Marginal Utility of Income", Journal of Public
Economics, 92, August, 2008 (with R Layard and G Mayraz)
"The Uneven Pace of Deindustrialisation in the OECD",
The World Economy, 31(9), September 2008 (with S Redding
and J Swaffield)
"The British Housing Market: What has been happening?"
Oxonomics, 4, 2009
Other Articles. Book Chapters, etc
"The Relationship between the Tax Structure, Financial
Policy and the Rate of Investment of the Firm" in Artis,
M and Nobay, R (eds) Studies in Modern Economic Analysis.
(1977)
"The Plain Man's Guide to the Out-of-Work" in Selected
Evidence submitted to the Royal Commission Report No 6: Lower
Incomes, HMSO, May, 1978 (with D Metcalf)
"The Effect of Collective Bargaining on Wages" in Shorrocks,
A and Krelle, W (eds). The Economics of Income Distribution,
North Holland (1979) (with R Layard and D Metcalf)
"The Modelling of Wages and Employment" in Hendry, D
F and Wallis, K F (eds). Econometrics and Quantitative Economics,
Blackwells, 1984
"Unemployment Insurance and Wages". The Geneva Papers
on Risk and Insurance, January, 1985
"Estimating the Parameters of Interest in a Job Search Model"
in R Blundell and I Walker (eds), Unemployment, Search and
Labour Supply, C.U.P., 1986 (with Wiji Narendranathan)
"Dynamic Models of Labour Demand", Chapter 8, in Ashenfelter,
O and Layard, R (eds), Handbook of Labor Economics, North
Holland, 1986
An Incomes Policy to Help the Unemployed, Employment Institute,
March 1987 (with R Layard)
"A Historical Perspective on Unemployment: A Review Article",
Journal of Political Economy, August, 1987
"Unemployment and the Real Wage", in Siven, C-H (ed),
Unemployment in Europe, Timbro, 1987
"The Short-Run Behaviour of Labour Supply", in Bewley,
Truman (ed), Advances in
Econometrics, Fifth World Congress, CUP, 1987
"The Labour Market" in Dornbusch, R and Layard, R (eds),
The Performance of the British Economy, Clarendon Press.
Oxford, 1987 (with R Layard)
"The Supply Side and Macroeconomic Modelling". in Bryant,
R C, Henderson, D W, Holtham, G, Synansky, S A (eds), Empirical
Macroeconomics for Interdependent Economies, Brookings, 1988
"Imperfect Competition and the Labour Market" in Beenstock,
M (ed), Modelling the Labour Market, Chapman and Hall,
1988
"Wages and Economic Activity", in Eltis, W and Sinclair,
P (eds), Keynes and Economic Policy, Macmillan, 1988
"Mrs Thatcher's Miracle?", Economic Affairs, 10
January, 1990 (with R Layard)
"Unemployment Revisited", Journal of Economic Studies
(NAIRU Special Issue). vol 20, No 1/2, 1993
"Unemployment in OECD Countries" in T Tachibanaki (ed),
Labour Market and Economic Performance, The Macmillan Press,
London, 1994 (with R Layard)
"Wages, Unemployment and Population Growth" in L Christofides,
E K Grant and R Swidinsky (ed), Aspects of Labour Market Behaviour,
University of Toronto Press, Toronto, 1995
"Can Unemployment in the UK be Reduced" in D Halpern,
S Hood, S White and G Cameron (eds), Options for Britain, Dartmouth,
Aldershot, 1996
"The Low-skill Low-pay Problem: Lessons from Germany for
Britain and the US", Policy Studies, 17(1), 1996
"Combatting Unemployment: Is Flexibility Enough?" in
Macroeconomic Policies and Structural Reform, OECD: Paris,
1996 (with R Jackman and R Layard)
"Would Cutting Payroll Taxes on the Unskilled have a Significant
Impact on Unemployment", in G de la Dehesa and D J Snower
(eds), Unemployment Policy, Cambridge University Press,
1997 (with B Bell)
"The Collapse in Demand for the Unskilled: What Can be Done?",
in Richard Freemand and Peter Gottschalk (eds), Generating
Jobs, Russell Sage Foundation, 1998
"Structural Changes and the British Labour Market",
in Horst Siebert (ed), Structural Change and Labor Market Flexibility,
Mohr Siebeck (1997)
"Employment Dynamics and Labor Market Institutions",
in J Gual (ed), Job Creation: The Role of Labour Market Institutions,
Edward Elgar, 1998
"Unemployment and Wages in Europe and North America",
in S Daniel, P Arestis and J Grahl (eds) The History and Practice
of Economics, Edward Elgar, 1999
"Unemployment in Britain", in P Gregg and J Wadsworth
(eds) The State of Working Britain, Manchester University
Press, 1999
"Labour Market Institutions and Economic Performance",
in O Ashenfelter and D Card (eds) The Handbook of Labor Economics,
Vol 3C, North Holland, 1999
"The Distribution of Wages and Unemployment Across Skill
Groups", in M A Landermann and K Pichelmann (eds) Unemployment
in Europe, Macmillan Press Ltd, 2000
"Human Capital, Investment and Innovation: What are the Connections?",
in R Barrell, G Mason, M O'Mahony (eds), Productivity, Innovation
and Economic Performance, Cambridge University Press, 2000
(with D Nicolitsas)
"European Integration, Liberalisation and Labour Market Performance",
in G Bertola. T Boeri and G Nicoletti (eds), Welfare and Employment
in a United Europe, MIT Press, 2000 (with R C G Haffner, G
Nicoletti. S Scarpetta and G Zoega)
"Institutions and the Workings of the Labour Market",
in H de Largentaye, P-A Muet, J-F Richard and J E Stiglitz (eds),
Governance, Equity and Global Markets: Proceedings of the Annual
Bank Conference on Development Economics in Europe, La Documentation
Francaise, 2000
"Has the UK Labour Market Changed?", Bank of England
Quarterly Bulletin, 41, Autumn 2001
"Rising Productivity and Falling Unemployment: Can the US
Experience be Sustained and Replicated", in A Krueger and
R Solow (eds), The Roaring Nineties: Can Full Employment be
Sustained?", The Russell Sage Foundation, 2001 (with
L Lynch)
"Country Studies: The United Kingdom" in B Steil, D
G Victor and R R Nelson (eds), Technological Innovation and
Economic Performance, Princeton University Press, 2002 (with
J Van Reenen)
"The Assessment: The Economic Record of the Labour Government
Since 1997", Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 18(2),
Summer, 2002
"Monetary Policy Issues: Past, Present, Future", Bank
of England Quarterly Bulletin 42(3), Autumn, 2002
"House Prices, Household Debt and Monetary Policy",
Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 43(1), Spring, 2003
"Two Current Monetary Policy Issues", Bank of England
Quarterly Bulletin, 43(4), Winter, 2003
"The Beveridge Curve, Unemployment and Wages in the OECD
from the 1960s to the I990s", in P Aghion, R Frydman, J Stiglitz
and M Woodford (eds), Knowledge, Information and Expectations
in Modern Macroeconomics: In Honor of Edmund S Phelps, Princeton,
Princeton University Press, 2003 (with L Nunziata, W Ochel and
G Quintini)
"The Rise in Inactivity among Adult Men", in R Dickens,
P Gregg and J Wadsworth (eds), The Labour Market Under New
Labour, Basingstoke, Palgrave Macmillan, 2003 (with G Faggio)
"Household Debt, House Prices and Consumption Growth",
Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 44(3), Autumn, 2004
"Why has Inflation been so Low since 1999?", Bank
of England Quarterly Bulletin, 45(1), Spring 2005
"How much Spare Capacity is there in the UK Economy",
Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 45(2), Summer 2005
"Employment, Unemployment and Low Pay", in I Marx and
W Salverda (eds), Low-Wage Employment in Europe, Leuven,
Acco, 2005
"The Budget of 1981 Was Over the Top", in P Booth (ed),
Were 364 Economists All Wrong? London, IEA, 2006
"Monetary Policy, Demand and Inflation", Bank of
England Quarterly Bulletin, 46(1), Spring 2006
"The UK Current Account Deficit and All That", Bank
of England Quarterly Bulletin, 46(2), Summer 2006
"After the 1981 Budget: A Reply to Tim Congdon", Economic
Affairs, 26(4), December, 2006
"A Picture of European Unemployment: Success and Failure"
in M Werding (ed) Structural Unemployment in Western Europe,
Mass, MIT Press (2006)
"Practical Issues in UK Monetary Policy, 2000-2005"
in P.J. Marshall (ed) Proceedings of the British Academy, 2005
Lectures, London, British Academy, 2006
"Work and Taxes" in J Agell and P B Sorensen (eds),
Tax Policy and Labour Market
Performance, Mass, MIT Press, 2006
"Patterns of Market Work: Some Facts" in T Boeri,
M C Burda and F Kramarz (eds) Working Hours and Job Sharing
in the EU and USA, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2008
"Is the U.S. Labor Market Really That Exceptional? A Review
of Richard Freeman", Journal of Economic Literature, 46(2),
June, 2008
"Housing in Britain" in V Uberoi, A Coutts. I McLean
and D Halpern (eds) Options for a New Britain, London,
Palgrave Macmillan, 2009
"The Advisory Committee on Civil Costs and the Guideline
Hourly Rates", Journal of Personal lnjuiry Law (4),
December, 2009
"Immigration, Occupation and Wages" in E Nowotny, P
Mooslecher and D Ritzberger-Grimwald (eds) The Integration
of European Labour Markets. Edward Elgar, 2009 (With J Saleheen)
"The Unemployment Challenge in Europe", CESifoForum,
11(1) 2010
"Immigration: Trends and Macroeconomic Implications",
in D Mihaljek (ed) Globalisation, Labour Markets and International
Adjustment: Essays in honour of Palle S Andersen, Bank of
International Settlements, 2010
"Does Relative Income Matter? Are the Critics Right?"
In E Diener, J F Helliwell and D Kahneman (eds), International
Differences in Well-Being, Oxford University Press, 2010 (With
R Layard and G Mayraz)
Other papers include numerous working papers, conference papers,
published discussant's comments, notes, magazine and newspaper
articles.
TEACHING
I HAVE PRESENTED
LECTURE COURSES
AT SOME
TIME IN
THE FOLLOWING
SUBJECTS (NUMBER
OF HOURS
IN PARENTHESES):
Undergraduate
Introductory Mathematical Economics (25)
Macroeconomic Theory* (25)
Applied Macroeconomics (10)
Quantitative Methods for Economists* (25)
Graduate
Methods of Economic Investigation* (40)
Microeconomics* (20)
Optimal Growth Theory (10)
Control Theory (10)
Linear Programming (10)
Applied Econometrics* (30)
Topics in Econometrics (10)
Labour Economics (24)
Real Business Cycles* (10)
(*Core Courses)
PhD/DPhil
Supervisor in a wide range of applied topics with some 70 successfully
completed doctorates, mostly under my sole supervision. These
include:
Outi Aarnio, Lecturer, St Edmund's Hall, Oxford; Willem Adema,
OECD; George Alogoskoufis, Member of Parliament, Greece (one time
Finance Minister); Piyasvasti Amranand, Chair, panel of advisors,
Kasikom Bank, Thailand (one time Minister of Energy); Martyn Andrews,
Senior Lecturer, University of Manchester; Wiji Arulampalam, Professor,
University of Warwick; Brian Bell, Senior Economist, Mitsubushi
UFJ Securities; Sonia Bhalotra, Professor, University of Bristol;
Stephen Bond, Senior Research Fellow, Nuffield College, Oxford;
Olympia Bover, Economist, Bank of Spain; Simon Burgess, Professor,
University of Bristol; Damon Clark, Assistant Professor, Florida
University; Sara Connolly, Senior Lecturer, UEA; Annalisa Cristini,
Professor, University of Bergamo; Emilia Del Bono. Senior Research
Officer, ISER, Essex; Kevin Denny, Senior Lecturer, UC Dublin;
Juan Dolado, Professor, Carlos III University, Madrid; Bianca
DeStavola, Reader, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine;
Fabian Eser, Economist, Banque de France; Andres Fuentes, OECD;
Jaume Garcia, Professor, Pompeu Fabra University, Barcelona; Sebastian
Galiani, Professor, Washington University, St Louis; Ejaz Ghani,
World Bank; Chris Gilbert, Professor, University of Trento; Maria
Guadalupe, Associale Professor, Columbia Business School, New
York; Maria Gutierrez, Research Economist, La Caixa, Barcelona;
Jan Hatzius, Chief US Economist, Goldman Sachs; Gonzalo Hemandez-Licona,
Professor, ITAM, Mexico; Helen Jenkins, Director, Oxford Economic
Research Associates; Peter Kane, Director, Performance and Finance
Directorate, Home Office; Paul Kong, Tudor Investment; Marco Leonardi,
Assistant Professor, University of Milan; Reija Lilja, Research
Director, Labour Institute for Economic Research, Helsinki; Lisa
Lynch, Dean and Professor of Economics, The Heller School for
Social Policy and Management, Brandeis University (and Chair of
the Board, Boston Federal Reserve Bank); James McHugh, IMF; loana
Marinescu, Assistant Professor, Harris School, University of Chicago;
Mara Meacci, Ministry of Economics and Finance, Rome; John Moore,
Professor, LSE and Edinburgh University; Elisabeth Miller, Senior
Researcher, ZEW, Mannheim; Luca Nunziata, Associate Professor,
University of Padua; Patrizia Ordine, Professor, University of
Calabria; Maureen Pike, Principal Lecturer, Oxford Brookes University;
Ian Preston, Professor, UCL; Glenda Quintini, OECD; Gina Raimondo,
Partner, Point Judith Capital; William Russell, Senior Lecturer,
University of Dundee; Andrea Richter, IMF; Agota Scharle. Senior
Research Partner, Budapest Institute for Policy Analysis; Fabio
Schiantarelli, Professor, Boston College; Peter Sinclair, Professor,
Birmingham University; Alison Sprague, Consultant Economist, KPMG;
Maarten Stegwee, one time Managing Director European Asset Finance,
CSFB; Philip Stevens. Chief Adviser, Economic Strategy, Ministry
of Economic Development, NZ; Giovanni Urga, Professor, Cass Business
School; SushiI Wadhwani, CEO, Wadhwani Asset Management (one time
member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee); Edgar
Weissenberger. Partner, WWP Financial Advice, Frankfurt; Theodora
Xenogiani, OECD; Gil Yaron, Director, GY Associates.
External Examining:
Cambridge, Essex, Kent, Birmingham, Oxford, Warwick, Sussex, UCL,
York.
Academic Consulting:
HM Treasury; Manpower Services Commission; Department of Employment;
Department of Health and Social Security; Economic and Social
Research Council; Morgan Grenfell; Reserve Bank of New Zealand;
OECD.
July 2010
|
