2 Holding a UK-wide referendum and
elections to the National Assembly for Wales on the same day
The practical implications
8. Part 1 of the Parliamentary Voting System and
Constituencies Bill makes provision for a referendum to be held
on whether to change the voting system for UK parliamentary elections
on 5 May 2011, the same date as elections to the National Assembly
for Wales are required, under the Government of Wales Act (GoWA),
to take place.
9. The Coalition Government argues that:
combining the referendum with these elections makes
sense, both practically and financially. Combining elections is
not unusual and such a move is likely to increase voter turnout,
which is to be welcomed.[4]
10. The Electoral Commission states that "it
should be possible to deliver the different polls proposed for
5 May 2011 if the key practical risks to the successful conduct
of the scheduled elections and a UK-wide referendum are properly
managed".[5] The Minister
for Political and Constitutional Reform, Mr Mark Harper MP, maintained
that work was ongoing in conjunction with electoral administrators
across the UK to make sure that "practical and sensible"
arrangements would be in place.[6]
11. However, the Welsh Assembly Government (WAG)
has opposed holding the referendum on the same day as the people
of Wales choose their Assembly Members.[7]
Plaid Cymru reinforced this view, listing concerns including "the
number of ballot papers and confusion amongst the general public,
difficulties in having a full and clear debate on each issue to
be voted upon, administration difficulties for electoral services
departments in councils, and the ability to process electors at
busy polling stations during peak periods".[8]
12. John Turner, Chief Executive of the Association
of Electoral Administrators (AEA), a professional body representing
the interests of electoral administrators in the UK, told us that
drawing on the experience of Scotland in 2007, the AEA considered
there was a high possibility for great confusion amongst voters:
… electoral events, if they are of a different
nature, should not take place at the same time. As a matter of
policy and principle, we subscribe to that. Therefore, we have
concerns about the possible implications for voters in understanding,
or being confused by, the different ballot papers they are presented
with for different electoral events on the same day.[9]
13. The lessons of the Scottish elections in 2007
are plain—combining different elections with different electoral
systems is an enormous challenge both to administrators and to
voters.
The timetable for making the necessary arrangements for holding
two different elections on the same day in Wales is extremely
challenging. While the Government argues that necessary arrangements
will be introduced so that any potential confusion is minimised,
many other experts, including an organisation representing electoral
administrators in the UK are less confident that the elections
will proceed smoothly. If the House does not amend the Bill and
the elections go ahead on 5 May 2011 as planned, confusion will
only be avoided as long as planning is rigorous and necessary
administrative arrangements are put in place. We urge the Government
to ensure that necessary planning is undertaken without delay
and to publish information about how it proposes to manage the
electoral arrangements as soon as possible.
COINCIDENCE OF ELECTIONS IN 2015
14. Further potential problems arise for Wales from
other Government plans to change the constitution. Elections to
the National Assembly for Wales are held every four years on a
fixed-term basis. Following the 2011 polls, the next Assembly
election is due to take place on 7 May 2015. The Government has
proposed in the Fixed Term Parliaments Bill that the next UK general
election will also be held on Thursday 7 May 2015.[10]
15. Lewis Baston, Senior Research Fellow with Democratic
Audit, was one of a number of witnesses who argued that this could
be problematic:
… the elections for Westminster and the Assembly
would be taking place on different systems on the same day, and
more complicatedly on two sets of boundaries which will hardly
ever correlate with each other.[11]
We agree that electing representatives for two different
constituencies on the same day will be a particularly baffling
issue for many voters, and we return to this point below.
16. Philip Johnson, Chair of AEA Wales, told us that
the coincidence of the elections meant that the consequence in
2015 could be "horrendous".[12]
The Minister acknowledged the concern that the Government's proposals
had raised but argued that the Government would plan carefully
to avoid them.[13] However,
he hinted that the elections might not after all take place on
the same day: "concern has been expressed in Wales, Scotland
and Northern Ireland [...] Ministers have been in contact with
counterparts in the devolved nations, and we are thinking about
what the options might be".[14]
Mr Harper did not expand on what these options were, though other
witnesses suggested that the National Assembly for Wales elections
might be postponed by one month.
17. Should
the UK general election coincide with elections to the National
Assembly for Wales on 7 May 2015, there will need to be extremely
robust cooperation and rigorous planning between the UK and Welsh
Assembly Governments and other agencies, so that confusion and
other complications are avoided. We recommend that the Government
commence work on this planning sooner rather than later, and keep
us informed of progress.
18. The
Government should make clear during the Committee Stage of the
Bill the other options it is considering to avoid the UK general
election and the National Assembly elections both taking place
on 7 May 2015.
The political implications
19. The practical problems of running the referendum
on the same day as the National Assembly elections are perhaps
manageable, although we heard evidence that the potential clash
of elections in 2015 could present significant challenges. However,
there are more profound considerations at stake. In the space
of a few weeks next Spring, the people of Wales will be asked
to decide upon the future of the devolution settlement, the electoral
system of the UK and the complexion of the next Welsh government.
There are very different, and quite complex, issues at stake in
each of these decisions, and only the last of them is a familiar
one. (Even that choice will be coloured by the results of a referendum
held only a few weeks previously of which the consequences will
be far from clear to many of the electors of Wales).
20. Once
again, our concerns are not, first and foremost, about the principles
at stake in each of these consultations with the nation. They
are about the wisdom and fairness of cramming so much debate and
decision into so short a space of time, especially where these
debates and decisions are about major constitutional changes of
some considerable complexity. We urge the Government to give further
consideration to these matters. The potential clash of elections
in 2015 could present significant challenges. The Government will
need to address this matter expeditiously.
4 Ev 30 Back
5
Voting at Different Polls on 5 May 2011, Electoral Commission
paper, 22 July 2010, www.electoralcommission.org.uk Back
6
Q 72 Back
7
"Wales strongly opposed to election date clash", Wales
Online, 3 July 2010, www.walesonline.co.uk Back
8
Ev 32 Back
9
Q 38 Back
10
Fixed Term Parliaments Bill, clause 1 (2) [Bill 64 (2010-11)] Back
11
Ev 25 Back
12
Q 38 Back
13
Q 72 Back
14
Q 72 Back
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