3 Reducing the size of the House of
Commons and equalising the size of parliamentary constituencies
21. Part 2 of the Parliamentary Voting System and
Constituencies Bill reduces the number of Members of the House
of Commons from 650 to 600, and requires every parliamentary constituency
(apart from two constituencies in Scotland) to contain the same
number of registered voters within a 5% margin.[15]
Reducing the number of parliamentary
seats in Wales
22. The Bill makes provision that the number of registered
voters in each of the proposed 598 constituencies must be within
5% of the electoral quota, defined as the number of registered
voters in the UK divided by the number of constituencies.
23. There has been a separate electoral quota for
each nation of the UK until 2007 (when the quota for England was
also used for Scotland). This has resulted in a wide divergence
in the number of voters per constituency. According to the British
Academy Policy Centre, at the 2010 general election, there was
"an average of 56,545 electors across the 40 Welsh constituencies,
compared to 63,101 in Northern Ireland, 65,498 in Scotland, and
71,882 in England".[16]
Should the House pass the Bill the calculation of the new electoral
quota is expected to come out at approximately 76,000 voters per
constituency. As a consequence, representation of Wales in Westminster
is projected to be reduced by ten seats from forty to thirty seats,
a 25% reduction.
24. The Government argues that:
… redrawing constituencies will make representation
in the House of Commons fairer and gives everyone's vote more
equal weight, wherever they live [...] following the reforms a
vote cast in Wales will be worth the same, no more and no less,
than a vote cast elsewhere in the United Kingdom. Wales will continue
to have a strong voice at Westminster, with the same degree of
representation as elsewhere in the United Kingdom.[17]
25. Other witnesses argued that Wales has in strict
numerical terms been over-represented at Westminster since at
least the 1832 Great Reform Act, in recognition that a small nation
needed to have its voice heard at Parliament. The House of Commons
Library gives background on representation in Wales:
Before 1832 Wales returned 24 MPs to the House of
Commons. Each of the 12 counties were represented by one Member,
with the remaining 12 MPs representing Parliamentary boroughs.
This remained the pattern of representation until the Parliamentary
reforms of the nineteenth century. After the reforms of 1832 each
county in Wales continued to return a single Member, with the
exception of Carmarthenshire, Denbighshire and Glamorganshire
which each returned two. The Act also created two new Parliamentary
boroughs: Merthyr Tydfil and Swansea. The total number of MPs
returned for Wales after 1832 was therefore 32. By 1918 this had
increased to 37. As related above, representation for Wales was
set at the 1944 Speaker's Conference as a minimum of 35 and now
stands at 40.[18]
26. As witnesses argued, this situation is not unique
to the UK. The United States Senate and the Senate in the Australian
Federation are just two examples of legislatures where smaller
states are given greater representation than their population
might otherwise justify.[19]
Nor has the "over-representation" of Wales been a matter
of particular concern amongst the electorate at large in the UK,
so far as we are aware.
27. The former Secretary of State for Wales, Rt Hon
Paul Murphy MP, who currently represents Torfaen, argued that
"the reduction of MPs [...] is unprecedented [...] Wales
has had a dedicated number of MPs in Parliament since the middle
of the Sixteenth Century. This is to safeguard the rights of a
small nation in a United Kingdom".[20]
Other submissions expressed concern that there will be "a
negative impact upon Welsh representation in the UK Parliament"[21]
and that "the voice of Wales will be lost".[22]
28. However, the view that Wales merits a disproportionately
greater number of MPs than a strict numerical calculation would
justify was not held by all witnesses. Professor Richard Wyn Jones,
Wales Governance Centre, Cardiff University said, "it is
hard to imagine how [a reduction from forty to thirty MPs] has
a huge impact in terms of the Welsh voice in Westminster, particularly
because, on the whole, Welsh MPs do not behave en masse as a single
block".[23] All
witnesses however acknowledged that Wales was the nation of the
UK most affected by the Government's proposals, and that a 25%
reduction of MPs was a significant step to make.
29. In
a democracy, it is an important consideration that every effort
is made to ensure that votes have equal weight. However, no electoral
system genuinely delivers a wholly "fair" outcome in
these terms. Notwithstanding this principle, other factors legitimately
weigh in the consideration of where the balance of fairness lies.
It is also important that the interests of each region of the
United Kingdom are properly heard at Westminster. The Government's
proposals would reduce, at a stroke, the number of MPs representing
Wales by 25%. By any yardstick, this would be a profound change
to the way that Wales is represented in Parliament.
Equalisation of constituencies
30. Linked to the reduction of MPs in the House of
Commons, is the proposal that each seat should be equal in size.
It is the responsibility of the Boundary Commission of each of
the four UK nations to draw the 600 new constituencies, with new
rules for the redistribution of seats.
31. Mr Edward Lewis, Secretary to the Boundary Commission
for Wales, explained that
… the principal change, of course, is that the
issue of parity is very much centre stage. Under the current legislation,
although parity is there, other factors are equally dominant in
the process. So, the new Bill will actually focus on the parity
issues, rather than on some of the other considerations that the
Commission currently takes into account".[24]
Mr Paul Wood, one of the Commissioners, added that
"issues such as local ties and historical ties, which may
have had more weight previously, are clearly subsumed in the legislation
to the numerical issues".[25]
32. Mr Lewis explained the approach to equalisation;
… we will try to take account of local government
boundaries [...] the advantage we have in Wales is that the whole
of Wales is also subdivided into communities, and electoral divisions
can consist of one or more community. Where communities have a
council and are 'warded' for electoral purposes, there is a further
possibility of breaking down numbers within that community. So,
I think that we have some significant flexibility in the way we
are structured, to create the parliamentary constituencies.[26]
However, some witnesses argued that the new boundaries
would alter fundamentally the nature of representation in Wales.
The Rt Hon Paul Murphy MP argued that
… the creation of very large constituencies,
rigidly defined by numbers, will destroy community-based constituencies
since it would appear that, to create such constituencies, local
ties, geography and tradition are likely to be ignored.[27]
Lewis Baston of Democratic Audit, also noted that
"there are a few particular local peculiarities in areas
of Wales. Certainly, there are more anomalies than there are in
England in terms of island and remote rural areas, and urban formations
in the valleys of south Wales, which do not really have a reflection
elsewhere".[28]
In contrast, the Boundary Commission for Wales noted that whilst
some communities are likely to feel divided between constituencies,
there was "no evidence" to suggest MPs in larger constituencies
would be distanced from their constituents.[29]
33. The
unique position of Wales in terms of its geography, culture and
history has long been recognised in its Westminster constituencies.
We recommend that the Government brings forward amendments to
the Bill to permit the Boundary Commission to give greater weight
to these factors when drawing up new constituencies than it is
currently allowed under the current proposals.
Decoupling constituencies for
the National Assembly for Wales from Westminster constituencies
34. Section 2 of the Government of Wales Act 2006
provides that the constituencies for the National Assembly for
Wales are the same as the parliamentary constituencies for Wales.
In order that the Assembly does not experience a corresponding
reduction in Members, Clause 11 of the Bill decouples the constituencies
for the Assembly from those at Westminster.
35. There are a variety of views that might be taken
on the severing of the link between Westminster constituencies
in Wales and those for elections to the National Assembly. The
link in Scotland has been broken since the 2005 general election,
and though this has, reportedly, created some problems they do
not appear to have proved insuperable. However, this is an example
of an under-examined issue which appears to have been rather brushed
aside in the race to legislate. There is a strong case to be made
that this issue should have received further investigation.
Scrutiny of the
Executive
36. Under the Government's proposals, an effect of
reducing the number of MPs is that the executive will be drawn
from a smaller pool of elected representatives. Although this
issue was not the prime focus of our inquiry, a number of witnesses
expressed concern that it would result in a greater influence
upon the House of Commons by the executive.[30]
Lewis Baston of Democratic Audit, argued that under the Government's
proposals "we are reducing the number of people capable of
scrutinising the Executive without actually reducing the Executive.
That seems to me to be the wrong order".[31]
37. Government
is most effective when Parliament is able to provide effective
and rigorous scrutiny. A reduction in the number of MPs without
a corresponding reduction in the number of Ministers would increase
further the dominance of the Government over the House of Commons
and is clearly a matter of great constitutional importance. We
strongly recommend that the Government clarify its position on
this matter.
Voter Registration
38. The
electoral quota, which will determine the size of a constituency,
is based on the number of registered voters, not on the total
of those eligible to vote. It has been estimated that the difference
between the two across the whole UK is 3.5 million.[32]
The Boundary Commission for Wales noted that:
… the problem is that if you use
the population, the starting point for the calculation of populations
is the census. The next census is in 2011. The data from that
won't be available till mid-2012, which is rather late for this
work [...] we feel that the electoral register, because it's a
more robust register, is a more robust figure to use.[33]
39. On
15 September 2010, Mr Mark Harper MP, Minister for Political and
Constitutional Reform, made a statement on the Government's plans
for individual electoral registration. He claimed that:
… it is widely recognised on both
sides of the House that the current arrangements for electoral
registration need to change [...] individual registration provides
an opportunity to move forward to a system centred around the
individual citizen [...] I am announcing today that we will legislate
to implement individual registration in 2014.[34]
Mr Harper told us that "the
UK electoral registration system compares very well with comparable
democracies across the world, with about 91% or 92% of eligible
voters registered".[35]
However, there are, we presume, wide variations around this average
between different types of constituency. We recommend that the
Wales Office produce estimates of registration levels in each
constituency of Wales to inform debate on the Bill's effect on
Wales.
40. Although the Government has pledged to implement
individual voter registration by 2014, constituencies for the
general election scheduled under government plans for 2015 will
be based on electoral data from 2010. John Turner from the Association
of Electoral Administrators believed that "individual registration
[...] perhaps ought to be the catalyst for [boundary reviews...]
so, running the boundaries in the general election after next
would seem a more sensible approach to me, simply in terms of
the mechanics of switching the registration system".[36]
Despite these and similar arguments, Ministers have confirmed
that the Government is determined to press ahead with its plans
for introducing new boundaries in time for the general election
in 2015.
41. It
is in the interests of all democrats that all eligible voters
are able to cast their votes at elections. While we note that
the Government is committed to increasing the number of voters
on the electoral roll, we also note concerns that, once individual
voter registration has been implemented in 2014, the 2010 electoral
roll, which will be used to determine the electoral quota for
the new constituencies in 2015, may be outdated.
42. We
recommend the Government reconsider its plans to introduce boundary
changes based on 2010 data and consider ways in which more accurate
and up-to-date data on those eligible to vote can be gathered.
15 The exempt constituencies are Na h-Eileanan An Iar
(Western Isles) and the Orkneys and Shetland Back
16
Ev 23 Back
17
Ev 27 Back
18
The Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Bill,
Research Paper 10/55, House of Commons Library, September 2010 Back
19
Ev 24 Back
20
Ev 30 Back
21
Ev 32 Back
22
Ev 31 Back
23
Q 45 Back
24
Q 3 Back
25
Q 8 Back
26
Q 4 Back
27
Ev 31 Back
28
Q 49 Back
29
Q 13 Back
30
Ev 33 Back
31
Q 51 Back
32
Q 55 Back
33
Q 29 Back
34
HC Deb, 15 September 2010, cols 883-884 Back
35
Q 78 Back
36
Q 55 Back
| 
