HC 1552 Developing Threats to Electronic Infrastructure

Written evidence from Research Councils UK

Bulleted summary

· Major space weather events have been recorded in the past but had relatively minor societal impact. Equivalent events today could be dangerous due to our greater reliance on technology.

· Examples of the hazards and risks associated with space weather include: damage to space-based infrastructure (satellites) by energetic particles and radiation; disturbance of the ionosphere degrading communication and navigation signals (including GPS) with particular impacts on aviation and shipping; blackouts and damage to electricity distribution grids extending over long distances caused by geomagnetically induced currents.

· Our ability to predict space weather and the severity of particular events is currently limited. The US Space Weather Prediction Center is the major agency providing space weather services. The UK has the potential to contribute further via research and capability supported by the UK Research Councils, services provided by the Met Office and via the European Space Situational Awareness Programme.

· Warning and prediction of space weather events is one of the most important ways of mitigating impacts. In addition, a variety of engineering and other approaches exist and are being developed to mitigate impacts of space weather across the range of infrastructure it affects.

· The UK has over 100 years' leadership in the science underpinning our understanding of space weather. This continues today with UK Research Councils as significant funders of research and capability relevant to understanding, forecasting and mitigating the impacts of space weather.

Introduction

1. Research Councils UK is a strategic partnership set up to champion research supported by the seven UK Research Councils. RCUK was established in 2002 to enable the Councils to work together more effectively to enhance the overall impact and effectiveness of their research, training and innovation activities, contributing to the delivery of the Government’s objectives for science and innovation. Further details are available at www.rcuk.ac.uk.

2. This evidence is submitted by RCUK on behalf of the Research Councils listed below and represents their independent views. It does not include, or necessarily reflect the views of the Knowledge and Innovation Group in the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS).

Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) [1]

Science and Technology Facilities Research Council (STFC)

3. This evidence focuses on the threat posed by space weather to civilian infrastructure. Further information of relevance to this inquiry can be found in several relevant POSTnotes [2] and evidence for the House of Commons Science and Technology Committee inquiry into Scientific Advice and Evidence in Emergencies. [3]

Question 1. The extent of any threat posed to UK electronic infrastructure by electromagnetic pulse (EMP) events caused by space weather events, nuclear weapons detonated at high altitude or other EMP weapons

4. Space weather creates conditions potentially hazardous to assets in space and on the ground, detrimental to a range of the services they provide.

5. Space weather is underpinned by solar activity. The sun is a continuous source of electromagnetic radiation over a wide spectrum and of charged particles that stream through space forming the solar wind with embedded solar magnetic fields. Solar flares, radio bursts, solar energetic particle (SEP) events and coronal mass ejections (CME) are examples of impulsive solar release events where electromagnetic energy, particles and solar magnetic fields are ejected at high speed from the sun. CME’s are one of the most important types of space weather disturbances. The frequency of impulsive release events is modulated by the solar activity cycle of around 11 years commonly characterised by sunspot numbers with the next solar maximum currently estimated to be in 2013. Threats occur throughout the solar cycle, however, and levels of cosmic radiation are highest during solar minima.

Threat to space based infrastructure

6. Solar release events can result in high energy charged particles which penetrate the Earth’s magnetic field directly, and cause magnetic storms which rapidly increase the number of high energy charged particles trapped in the Van Allen radiation belts. These particles threaten satellite operations by accelerating cumulative damage to the solar arrays providing power and by their effects on electronic systems. High energy particles can penetrate chips in digital electronic systems causing Single Event Effects (SEE), flipping memory and changing the state of software. Modern developments in microelectronics are leading to equipment with increasing chip density and increased vulnerability to SEEs. [4] Electrons in the radiation belts can penetrate satellites and cause build-up of charge in insulating materials. Discharges can permanently damage electronic components or generate false signals to which the satellite may respond.

Upper atmosphere and ground level derived threat

7. At the Earth, solar ultraviolet and X-ray emissions are absorbed in the atmosphere creating the ionosphere, which affects the transmission of radio waves and supports the flow of electric currents which generate magnetic fields. When a CME encounters the Earth’s magnetic field it can cause a severe magnetic storm lasting from a few hours up to several days. The rapidly changing magnetic fields during magnetic storms induce electric fields in the solid Earth and oceans. These can drive Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) through earthed conductors, including electrical power grids and pipelines.

8. Some SEP events, through the production of neutrons from collisions in the atmosphere, lead to increases in radiation at ground level and with higher intensity at aircraft altitudes. The risk is higher in the polar regions where there is less protection from the Earth’s magnetic field. SEP events result in increased radiation dose to aircrew, electronic upsets in aircraft avionics and disruption to air traffic communications on polar routes.

Question 2. The likelihood that a viable EMP weapon can or will be used by either state or non-state actors

9. Nil response.

Question 3. The extent to which space weather is forecasted and the effectiveness of early warning systems that may be in place

10. The UK has a long and successful heritage in relevant solar observations and there are a number of UK-led instruments on major international space missions. However, forecasting space weather is very difficult and is still at an early stage often considered comparable to weather forecasting in the 1960s.

11. Disturbances such as CMEs take 15-72 hours to travel from the sun to Earth. Particularly key to the prediction of Earth-impacting CMEs are the UK-led Heliospheric Imagers flying aboard the twin NASA STEREO [5] spacecraft, which have been developed by the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory and the University of Birmingham. These UK instruments are the only systems able to image Earth-impacting CMEs, from out of the Sun-Earth line, enabling tracking of CMEs from the Sun to the Earth. This pioneering work is central to current research into CME arrivals at Earth and is funded by STFC and the UK Space Agency.

12. Despite this technology, it is only possible to provide a reliable warning of the extent of impact of the CME within an hour or so, as we need to measure the direction of the interplanetary magnetic field as it passes the Earth. More research to understand the basic physics and to develop better models is required to improve the reliability of forecasts.

13. The US Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is currently the major agency providing space weather services. The UK Met Office has agreed to a request from the NOAA to ‘mirror’ the services provided by SWPC recognising the Met Office’s strengths in reliable 24/7 operational service delivery.

14. The European Space Agency’s (ESA) Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Programme [6] objectives are to support Europe’s independent utilisation of, and access to, space through accurate information about the space environment, with particular regard to hazards including space weather, posed to infrastructure in orbit and on the ground.

15. NERC strategy is focussed around seven science themes, [7] one of which, Natural Hazards, recognises the importance of space weather. [8]

16. The NERC funded British Antarctic Survey (BAS) has worked with a consortium of UK insurance companies to forecast periods of high risk to satellites. BAS now leads an international project called SPACECAST to develop European modelling and forecasting capabilities in order to protect satellites on orbit from high energy particle radiation. This is a research project that will also deliver an initial forecasting capability from March 2012 onwards via a public web site, and issue warnings and alerts for stakeholders who sign up to the service. The forecasting will be provided on a best efforts basis and will lay the foundation for an operational service. The project is funded by the EU under Framework 7 and involves 7 European partners and 4 collaborations with the USA. SPACECAST is funded for three years up until the end of February 2014.

17. The NERC funded British Geological Survey (BGS) has developed a suite of space weather monitoring and forecasting services over a number of years following work for the ESA and Scottish Power. For example, BGS has access to real-time data from the UK and many other magnetic observatories around the world and is able to estimate measures of geomagnetic disturbance in near real time. BGS has worked closely with Met Office in the Natural Hazards Partnership (NHP). Since March 2011 BGS has been delivering daily magnetic activity forecasts and real time data, indicating UK and global magnetic activity conditions, for inclusion in a pilot daily hazards report issued by the Met Office as part of NHP activities.

18. Another important ground based technology of relevance is the LOw Frequency Array (LOFAR), [9] a multi-purpose sensor array whose main application is astronomy at low frequencies (10-250 MHz). LOFAR supports UK and international efforts to demonstrate interplanetary scintillation as a complementary method to monitor CMEs and other heliospheric transients, thereby improving resilience of the global space weather monitoring capability, particularly if space based technologies were to fail. The first LOFAR station to be built in the UK was opened at STFC’s Chilbolton Observatory in September 2010. [10]

19. Appendix 1 [11] provides an audit of potential UK based space weather assets including those supported by NERC and STFC, prepared recently (November 2009) as an input to ESA’s SSA programme. It can be seen as one measure of the UK’s ‘preparedness’ to predict, monitor and analyse the effects of space weather, or the UK’s ‘National Capability’ in respect to space weather and solar storms. The extent of the UK commitment to the SSA programme, via UKSA, will need to be determined as part of the wider UK strategy for engagement with ESA.

Question 4. The potential impact of such events for both civilian and military infrastructure;

20. The largest space weather event on record occurred in 1859. A number of reports have examined the impacts of a similar event today, [12] with the US National Research Council giving an estimate of $1-2 trillion for the wider societal and economic costs of a severe geomagnetic storm scenario. [13] The Lloyds and RAL [14] Space Weather Report explores the threat to business and included input from BGS. [15] The Space Environment Impacts Expert Group (SEIEG) chaired by member of staff from STFC and including BAS and BGS representation has helped the Civil Contingencies Unit of the Cabinet Office to evaluate potential impacts of space weather.

21. There are more than 600 satellites in orbit providing essential services including TV, banking, internet, remote sensing, navigation, and security. During a space weather event the Van Allen radiation belts can intensify 10,000 fold or more resulting in satellite charging and damage to electronic components. Solar energetic particle events can also reduce solar array power and satellite lifetime. Three satellites in the radiation belts were damaged in one event in 1994, leading to serious loss of service, and satellite losses occurred in 1997, 1998 and 2003 during the last solar cycle. Many other satellites have been damaged or lost over the years but it is not clear if those losses were due to space weather. Past experience shows that the highest space weather risk to satellites will occur two years after the peak in the sunspot cycle, sometime in 2015.

Impact on positioning, navigation and timing services

22. An important space-based infrastructure is positioning, navigation and timing (PNT) services delivered by Global Navigation Satellite Systems, predominantly the US Global Positioning System (GPS). Navigational applications of GPS are now commonplace and the use of GPS-derived time has become integral in areas as diverse as scientific monitoring, telecommunications, and financial transactions and services. Implications of loss of PNT services caused by space weather have been highlighted in a report by the Royal Academy of Engineering. [16] PNT services may be degraded by direct effects of space weather on satellite infrastructure.

23. Disturbance to the ionosphere may also impact PNT services. On the ground, GPS receivers rely on receiving radio signals from the GPS satellites. During magnetic storms the ionospheric density profile changes, affecting the propagation time of the radio signals, which leads to positional errors. Magnetic storms can also result in loss of signal lock by receivers. In addition, solar radio bursts can overwhelm GPS satellite signals leading to loss of service for periods of several hours. [17]

Impact on aviation and shipping

24. Disturbance of the ionosphere can have particular impacts on aviation and shipping. SEP events can lead to loss of high frequency communications in the polar-regions for 24 hours or more requiring aircraft on polar routes to be re-routed, adding considerably to the flight costs. Solar flares can also produce communications blackouts for a few hours. A space weather event disrupted trans-Atlantic aviation in 2005. See also paragraph 28.

Impact on power supply

25. GICs pose a threat to electricity distribution grids extending over long distances which can cause blackouts and damage. Permanent damage to transformers caused by GICs is a major concern. Transformers are costly, not available as ‘off-the-shelf’ items, and replacing one is a major exercise. The consequences of a prolonged loss of electrical power are potentially catastrophic as the infrastructures and services that modern developed societies rely on are entirely dependent on electricity. Examples include heating, lighting, refrigeration, communications, pumping of fuel, water and sewage.

26. It has been estimated that if a magnetic storm that occurred in May 1921 was repeated today then 130 million people in the US would lose their electricity and more than 350 transformers would be at risk of permanent damage. [18] A large space weather event caused power blackouts across North-Eastern Canada in March 1989. Quebec was blacked out for 9 hours, millions of people without electricity. During the same storm a large step-up transformer at the Salem Nuclear Power Plant in New Jersey was damaged.

Question 5. Ways of mitigating electromagnetic pulse events, either targeted or naturally occurring

27. Warning and prediction of space weather events is one of the most important ways of mitigating effects. Essential systems can then be put into a safe mode, but this may not always ensure survival.

28. There are a number of mitigating possibilities to help protect satellites in the aftermath of an EMP or severe space weather event. Scientific research at the BAS on natural radiation belts has shown that various types of electromagnetic waves can remove energetic charged particles so that they are deposited down into the atmosphere. Once in the atmosphere they are quickly absorbed. A potential mitigation process is to increase the rate of scattering and particle loss by these waves. This might be done by:

· Injecting very low frequency and extremely low frequency waves into space from ground based transmitters;

· Transmitting very low frequency waves from satellites in orbit;

· Releasing chemicals from rockets which generate waves in space by natural wave-particle interactions.

29. These ideas are at the research stage and are led by the USA. The UK has considerable expertise in wave-particle interactions through its research on space weather and radiation belts at BAS.

30. Satellite operators attempt to mitigate the effects of space weather by hardening chips against radiation and by using multiple circuits so that a malfunctioning circuit can be outvoted by ones that are operating correctly. However, during the so-called Halloween magnetic storm in October/November 2003 more than 47 satellites reported anomalies and one scientific satellite was a total loss.

31. The use of dual-frequency receivers can help overcome the effect of magnetic storms on the propagation time of the radio signals from GPS satellites to GPS receivers.

32. Aircrew on long-haul flights are classified as radiation workers by the European Union and frequent flyers are also at risk. [19] The only mitigation strategies to reduce exposure during a radiation event are to fly at lower altitude to increase atmospheric shielding or re-route to lower latitudes.

33. ISIS pulsed neutron and muon source at Rutherford Appleton Laboratory [20] is in the build phase of Chipir, [21] a new experimental facility which will study how microchips’ operations are severely disrupted by cosmic radiation, one of the first dedicated resource of its kind outside the US. Chipir will be world leading with unique capabilities for screening microchips with neutrons and will enable the development of more resilient electronic systems. The project received funding in March 2011 [22] from the UK Large Facilities Capital Fund. [23]

34. Possible mitigation strategies to reduce the threat to electrical power distribution systems include fitting blocking capacitors to the earth connections of transformers and management of the distribution of load throughout a grid system to protect the components most at risk. Risk assessments require the identification of a ‘reasonable worst case’ that a system should be designed to be resilient to, or for which an adaptation strategy should be developed. The statistical distribution of extreme events is required, but for a number of the space weather effects the available data are limited. This is not the case for magnetic disturbances as magnetic observatories have been in operation for more than 160 years. Analyses on data from European magnetic observatories to estimate the size of major geomagnetic storms using extreme statistics methods have been carried out. [24]

35. NERC/BGS and STFC/RAL Space were co-sponsors of a workshop on Geomagnetically Induced Currents in National Power Grids held at Lancaster University on 30-31 March 2011. This workshop was led by Lancaster University using impact funding from EPSRC. It brought together UK and international experts from science, industry and government to discuss the space weather threat to power grids and was a welcome opportunity to exchange ideas and develop links between experts from different communities.

36. In partnership with National Grid, BGS has developed a range of scenarios and modelled the effects on a simplified representation of the UK high voltage grid to identify transformer ‘hot spot’ locations. National Grid has, in parallel, been considering the engineering and supply consequences of these scenarios. BGS has been commissioned by National Grid to provide a geomagnetic hazard monitoring and analysis service and is working with National Grid to improve models of the high voltage system, to enable more accurate assessments of space weather impacts on the UK grid system. BGS is also a partner in the EU Framework 7 project EURISGIC, carrying out research into the generation and impacts of Geomagnetically Induced Currents on power distribution networks.

37. The adoption of optical cables for most telephone and internet communications makes them largely immune to space weather effects. Transoceanic cables have electronic systems to amplify signals which introduce a potential but relatively minor vulnerability. The ability of relatively recent and rapidly developing wireless technologies including mobile phones, wireless internet and device controllers to reject interference from radio bursts has not yet been established by exposure to significant events as their widespread adoption has been recent and during a quiet period in solar activity.

Question 6. The resources available in respect of research and development in this field;

38. The UK has over 100 years' leadership in the science underpinning our understanding of space weather. This continues today with the UK Research Councils, in particular NERC and STFC, acting as the significant funders of relevant research programmes. [25] Research Council commitment is broadly split between ground-based and space-based studies with NERC funding Earth orientated solar terrestrial physics and STFC funding space based activities. There are many inter-relationships between the various areas of research. UK scientists are world leaders at combining data from ground-based and space-based studies.

39. SEIEG provides a forum for developing research plans and the Met Office, which is one of the founder members of SEIEG, is playing an important part in work being carried out by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) on space weather.

40. The following are examples of significant recent Research Council activity:

· STFC is currently finalising negotiations with the EU Commission for a 5M Euro FP7 project to establish an advanced data system to facilitate scientists’ access to databases essential for research across all aspects of space weather. The project, which involves 22 partners from the UK, the rest of Europe and from the US, will be led by a team in RAL Space.

· STFC is leading preparation of a bid for up to 10M Euro FP7 funding to coordinate and improve the networks of European ground-based sensors that provide measurements critical to space weather research. If successful, this bid will enable instrument groups in the UK and the rest of Europe to provide high-quality ground-based measurements that are an essential complement to space-based measurements, such as those being developed by ESA. This mix of ground-based and space-based measurements is critical to advancing the quality of space weather forecasts.

· STFC/RAL Space was a key part of the organising team for Space Weather and Society workshop that took place at NASA Ames Research Centre in California over the weekend of 15/16 October 2011. This workshop aimed to establish a plan for linking space weather expertise with societal and economic needs. STFC provided the key international input to complement internal US expertise in the organising team. The UK attendees included representatives from STFC, NERC, industry and Government.

· NERC are developing significant collaborations with research groups across Europe and the USA on space weather (e.g. via three Framework 7 projects at the British Antarctic Survey and through another involving the British Geological Survey). It is also developing an integrated approach where BAS and BGS are co-operating to develop computer models to forecast space weather which utilise a variety of ground and space based data.

· A UK-US workshop on space weather research coordination in Boulder, Colorado on 11-14 October was sponsored by the FCO Global Partnership programme. The workshop involved experts from STFC, NERC, the universities and Met Office, plus their counterparts from the US, and will result in a roadmap for future collaboration on science to advance the mitigation and forecasting of adverse space weather.

· See also responses to Q3 including reference to assets.

· Also with reference to Q3 (paragraph 11), the STEREO Heliospheric Imager data are being made available to the public through a project known as Solar Stormwatch, [26] and this has enabled thousands of people worldwide to identify and track CMEs. This is a successful and on-going pilot study for crowd-sourcing techniques, mobilising effort that cannot be duplicated otherwise, and it is consistent with a UN approach for crowd-sourcing as a tool for hazard mitigation and which is being applied to a number of disaster planning scenarios.

Question 7. Contingencies in place to react to a large-scale loss of UK electronic infrastructure, and the role of the military in such an event

41. Nil response.

Question 8. The broader security of UK electronic and space infrastructure, particularly satellites and satellite navigation systems and the risk posed by space debris

42. Nil response.

October 2011