Written evidence from London First (HSR
117)
1. London First is a business membership organisation
with a mission to make London the best city in the world in which
to do business. We do this by mobilising the experience, expertise
and enthusiasm of the private sector to develop practical solutions
to the challenges facing London. London First delivers its activities
with the support of the capital's major businesses in key sectors
such as finance, professional services, property, ICT, creative
industries, hospitality and retail. Membership also includes further
education colleges and all of London's universities.
2. We welcome the chance to give our initial
views on the Government's proposals for a national High Speed
Rail (HSR) network. We will continue to gather our members' views
this year.
3. In addition, London First has established
a Commission to examine—in the round—the capacity
and quality of London's transport infrastructure links with the
rest of the UK and the wider world. It will make recommendations
for the short, medium and longer term to Government, and others
as appropriate. Further background to this Commission can be found
in the Annex to this response, and at www.londonfirst.co.uk/connectivity-commission
CONDITIONS FOR
SUCCESS
4. We welcome the fact that there is a considerable
degree of cross-party consensus on long term transport infrastructure
planning (with the exception of policy for the UK's international
air transport links). The last Government established Infrastructure
UK; the present Government has continued it, and presided over
the publication of the first National Infrastructure Plan. The
Coalition has made a strong case for investment in economically
vital long term transport infrastructure. In London, consensus
has emerged over the importance of building Crossrail, Thameslink
and maintaining the Tube upgrade programme. While we welcome a
visionary approach in place of the all-too-familiar sweating of
assets to beyond breaking point, proposals for HSR will require
sustaining this political consensus.
5. The Department for Transport/HS2 study states
wider benefits worth around £44 billion are generated
by HSR. The Northern Way, which brought together the Regional
Development Agencies (RDA's) from the north of England, estimates
that the agglomeration benefits in particular could be much greater;
indeed that the total GVA benefits could be up to three times
the size of welfare benefits assessed in a conventional cost benefit
appraisal, and up to £120 billion in present value terms.
6. While this might include optimism bias, and
the calculation of such wider benefits is fraught with methodological
difficulties and forecasting uncertainties, we concur with the
Northern RDAs' assessment that "High speed rail is a once
in a generation opportunity to transform the economic prospects
of the North".[88]
We believe, however, there are some conditions which must be met
if this potential is to be realised to the full.
7. First, if we are to start we must finish.
The real transformative benefits come from linking a network of
cities to London and to each other: first Birmingham; then Leeds/Manchester;
and ultimately on to Scotland. A network that goes no farther
than Birmingham will not deliver the value for money of the full
network; and it manifestly will not transform the economy of Northern
England. Completion requires long term commitment from Government.
8. Second, HSR must be an "and", not
an "or". This visionary, potentially transformative,
grand project must be in addition to other vital work needed to
upgrade parts of the existing transport network, to address both
historic underinvestment and to meet future demand. This includes
as yet unfunded Tube lines in London, road improvements in England
and the vital upgrades of our current rail network needed to relieve
the overcrowding experienced by commuters every day. It is worth
noting, for example, the benefit cost ratio of HS2 is 2.6, while
that of the still to be funded Piccadilly line upgrade is 4.2.
9. Third, the delivery of HSR cannot be a substitute
for an aviation policy that underpins south east England's economic
growth. Around 80% of all journeys to and from London to Manchester
are already taken by rail. The demand for flights in the UK is
forecast to nearly double by 2050.[89]
Demand for flights in London is forecast to rise to 250 million
passengers a year, up from 140 million now. Heathrow, the UK's
principal hub airport, is full; Gatwick is full at peak times.
They suffer, as a result, the greatest flight delays of all major
European rivals. HSR may well transform the economy of northern
England but it can't give London the international links it needs
to maintain our world city status, to grow in the future and to
share the benefits of this growth—through greater connectivity—with
the rest of the country.
10. Fourth and finally, continued investment
in London's transport infrastructure must be integral to any HSR
strategy if London is to cope with the increased numbers of passengers
expected to arrive on HSR. At Euston, demand is forecast to rise
from 21,000 in AM peak in 2008 to 29,000 in 2033 without HSR and
38,000 with HSR stopping at Old Oak Common. Any policy for HSR
must be tied to long term plans to upgrade London's Tube and rail
infrastructure - including the second phase of the Northern line
upgrade (splitting the line at Camden for extra capacity with
more frequent services); and Crossrail 2, linking Finsbury Park
and Victoria, via Euston. While HSR has enormous potential, it
must be tightly bound to coherent transport policy if this potential
is to be realised.
May 2011
88 High speed rail: A once in a generation opportunity
to transform the North's economy, The Northern Way, 31 March 2011. Back
89
UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 Forecasts, Department for Transport,
2009. Back
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