Further written evidence from HS2 Action
Alliance (HSR 153A)
1. INTRODUCTION
This document is submitted as supplementary evidence
to the Transport Select Committee's inquiry on High Speed Rail
by HS2 Action Alliance.
Its purpose is to clarify the basis on which the
Government and some supporters of HS2 have been contending that:
— WCML
will be full within a decade.
— WCML
will be completely overcrowded by 2022.
— The
means of increasing capacity will be exhausted.
These statements relate to contentions made by Network
Rail, but this note explains that they are not consistent with
the actual forecasts made by Network Rail.
2. SUMMARY
Network Rail (NR) have made recent statements about
when WCML will be full which are currently being taken out of
context. These statements refer to
— Within
six to 10 years, but this statement to
the Transport Select Committee was simply based on the past increases
of 10%/a continuing (which no one expects, least of all NR's own
forecasts, or HS2 Ltd's); using NR's own forecast suggests more
like in 38 years time.
— Effectively
full by 2024, but this statement was based
on NR's Draft RUS and assumes no other improvements are made,
not even those they identify eg running an extra off peak service,
and seem to ignore their own evidence on actual levels of overcrowding
(that indicates about 5% overcrowding weekdays by 2024).
The above does not provide robust evidence on which
Philip Hammond can state the WCML will be "completely overcrowded
by 2022", or statements by Theresa Villiers that it will
be full within a decade, or the position being quoted by Prof
Begg (on his Yes to HSR website) that it will be full within six
to 10 years.
Statements are being taken out of context, and are
used to suggest there is no other option than HS2.
3. EVIDENCE
3.1 Government statements
Philip Hammond, Theresa Villiers[215]
and Alison Munro have all been stating that WCML will be full
in around a decade. Most recently they rely on statements made
by David Higgins (Network Rail's Chief Executive) to the Transport
Select Committee. But his statement (that WCML would be full
in 10 years, or even six to 10 years) involves a projection that
no-one, including NR, would say is realistic. His words have
been taken completely out of context.
Prior to that they rely on statements Higgins made
when the HS2 consultation was announced.
3.2 Network Rail forecast
What NR actually forecast in the December 2010 draft
RUS for WCML is reasonably in line with the current forecasts
for WCML made for HS2 Ltd.
Figure 1 shows the growth they forecast. If average
growth is about 45% to 2024-25, this gives 2.5% per annum - so
that demand doubles in 28 years (HS2 forecast has demand doubling
in 35 years).
However, the Draft WCML RUS had the forecasts done
prior to the fares revision of RPI+3% for three years, so forecasts
that included this factor should be lower to some extent.
Figure 1
NETWORK RAIL: DRAFT WCML RUS, PAGE 69
3.3 Network Rail statements
David Higgins was reported as follows in welcolming
the HS2 consultation (28 February 2011, on NR's web site):
"David Higgins, Network Rail chief executive,
said: 'HS2 is a vital infrastructure project of national importance.
It will be a hugely significant enhancement to the national rail
network and will unlock tremendous capacity to tackle, what will
be by 2024, critical overcrowding on the West Coast Main Line.'
'The West Coast Main Line is Britain's busiest
and most economically vital rail artery. It will be completely
full by 2024 with no more space to accommodate the continued predicted
growth in both passenger and freight traffic. A new high-speed
line to Birmingham and the North West is essential both to release
much needed capacity on the existing line for more freight
and commuter services, but also in creating the vital transport
links we need to help Britain's economy thrive.'"
This announcement is supported by reference to the
Draft WCML RUS, with up to 61% growth (3.5% per annum) in passenger
numbers between Manchester and London for 2024. This is the highest
growth for London and other city pairs (see figure above), and
the highest growth scenario. This leads to the modest levels
of crowding shown in Figure 4.6 (from the Draft RUS).
NR forecast that 12%[216]
of the long distance high speed trains will have some standing
in some point of their journey by 2024 (although how this aligns
with Figure 4.6 is unclear). But NR see running an additional
off-peak service (making use of spare capacity in the time table)
as addressing this issue. This can be achieved with the then
existing rolling stock, and so has little cost. Interestingly
they do not see a business case for lengthening the rest of the
Pendolino fleet to 11 car, or for the Voyager fleet for services
to North Wales.
However, it should be noted that the business cases
developed by NR are on the DfT basis that time savings are very
valuable (assuming every minutes of time saving is a minute of
additional productive time) and relieving crowding has little
value as time is unproductive in any event. The business case
for reducing crowding should be much stronger when DfT's approach
is corrected and crowding is taken to have a much higher productivity
related cost.
Curiously NR in the Draft RUS entirely dismiss the
option of extending trains, claiming that after the re-timetabling:
"……thereafter the WCML, particularly
at the southern end of the route is effectively full and subsequent
additional capacity could only be provided by exceptionally expensive
infrastructure solutions."[217]
This is odd, as lengthening trains is normally the
cheapest means of creating more capacity, and is identified by
Network Rail as the next course of action to adopt after exhausting
timetable changes.[218]
With only the Pendolino partly lengthened to 11-car, there are
options of lengthening the rest of the Pendolinos, lengthening
the Voyagers and selectively lengthening some Pendolinos to 12-car.
NR also do not actually consider means of increasing
capacity through infrastructure solutions either, simply claiming
that:
"Further, more expensive, incremental capacity
improvements have not been considered in detail as Network Rail,
High Speed Two Limited and the DfT have already examined this,
concluding that a new line is the preferred strategy."[219]
The Draft RUS provides the government with some quotes
clearly stating that WCML will be full by 2024, however, this
is reliant on a "do nothing" view of future interventions.
NR actually identify how crowding can be addressed through running
an extra train off peak. They dismiss the options of train lengthening
(possible for both Pendolinos and Voyagers) as lacking business
cases. Their consideration of options is clearly constrained
by the perceived imminence of HS2 and is not evidence that options
to increase capacity on WCML do not exist.
3.4 Transport Select Committee evidence
David Higgins' statement to the Transport Select
Committee (1 March 2011) is frequently quoted by the government,
and also by Professor Begg on the Yes to HSR website. The following
is an extract of the oral evidence that David Higgins gave to
the Transport Select Committee.[220]
"With West Coast, it has been a tremendous
success. £10 billion upgrading West Coast means that now
that franchise is having customer growth of over 10% per annum.
At Christmas it was up by 20% year on year. That West Coast line,
within 10 years at the absolute maximum, and probably six years,
will be at capacity, and that is with additional carriages included
in the area. We can look at other tactical interventions in that
line to put more capacity in there, but in the end it comes down
to capacity: we will, across a number of key parts of our network,
run out of capacity.
Q25 Mr Leech: How many years do you predict
that it would be-
David Higgins: Six to 10 years.
Q26 Chair: Is that six to 10 years from when
it runs out of capacity?
David Higgins: From today. If it keeps growing
at the rate it is going today, and if petrol prices keep going
in the way they are going, then in 10 years' time West Coast will
be at capacity."
The statement was not therefore based on NR's forecast
but simply the recent past (that reflects the effect of the much
improved services from the Route Modernisation being completed)
continuing.
The recent past of WCML reflects the upgrade that
has resulted in massive reductions in generalised journey times
from faster journeys, more frequent services and higher reliability.
No one expects the uplift from these changes to continue to drive
demand increases that are out of line with "background growth".
The information can however be used to calculate
the point at which NR believe it will be full - on the basis of
six years (minimum) and 10 years (maximum) at 10%/a this represents
between 77% and 159% growth.
Table 1
USING FORECASTS TO CALCULATE MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM PERIOD UNTIL WCML IS FULL
| NR maximum period to reaching capacity
| increase | "at capacity"
|
| NR statement | 10%/a for 10 years
| 159% | 2021 |
| NR RUS forecast | 2.5%/a for 38 years
| 156% | 2049 |
| HS2 Ltd forecast | 2.02%/a for 47 years
| 156% | 2058 |
| NR minimum period to reaching capacity
| | |
| NR statement | 10%/a for 6 years
| 77% | 2017 |
| NR RUS forecast | 2.5%/a for 23 years
| 76% | 2034 |
| HS2 Ltd forecast | 2.02%/a for 28 years
| 75% | 2039 |
Table 1 shows the results
— Max
period: It would take 38 years for WCML
to be full using the average forecast growth from NR's Draft WCML
RUS and 47 years on HS2 Ltd's WCML forecast growth rate
— Min
period: It would take 23 years for WCML
to be full using the average forecast growth from NR's Draft WCML
RUS and 28 years on HS2 Ltd's WCML forecast growth rate
The answer probably lies somewhere between the two
results. Based on HS2 Ltd's forecast this would be between 28
and 47 years
3.5 Crowding evidence
Figure 2 is from the Draft RUS and the section on
crowding. The right hand side (future capacity) gives the levels
of crowding expected with the new rolling stock to be introduced
in 2012. The level of trains with some standing are modest (about
5%) - no doubt largely reflecting the first trains eligible for
regulated saver fares in the evening (as now). It is not clear
how this figure fits with the 12% of services to and from Euston
having some standing at some stage.
The higher levels of crowding on the Wales services
(green bars, 2nd from the right) have the highest crowding. These
services are run by the Voyagers, for which no new rolling stock
is being acquired, although more Voyagers could be obtained allowing
more trains to be made up of two five-car units (for example).
Figure 2
NETWORK RAIL: DRAFT WCML RUS (PAGE 71)
Philip Hammond, on this evidence, has some difficulty
in saying that services will be "completely overcrowded by
2022", as he did on the recent Central ITV debate (19 May
2011).
CONCLUSION
It is convenient for Government and Professor Begg
that Higgins made his statement about how long WCML might take
to reach capacity, but the unqualified way it is being used or
quoted is misleading - as what he said is a "what if"
type of statement, rather than NR's own proper forecast.
Similar statements in the Draft WCML RUS appear to
apply to 2024 but actually using Network Rail's forecasts, but
these relate to the situation if nothing is done. NR actually
identify a low cost solution.
That 5% (or 12%?) of long distance trains will have
some standing in 2024 without any further increases in capacity
beyond that committed for 2012 is poor evidence that WCML will
be "completely overcrowded by 2022" as stated by Philip
Hammond.
3 June 2011
215 Villiers in Westminster Hall debate on HS2 (March2011);
Hammond on Central ITV debate (19 May 2011); Hammond on statement
to the house (20 December 2010); Alison Munro on radio (11 April2011);
Prof Begg on Yes to HSR website 4 April 2011). Back
216
Draft RUS WCML, Network Rail, December 2010, page 7 Back
217
Network Rail op cit, Section 6.5 page 118 Back
218
Network Rail op cit, section 6.2 page 113 Back
219
Network Rail op cit, page 89 Back
220
Transport Select Committee 1 March 2011: David Higgins, NR Chief
Executive Back
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