Written evidence from the Scottish Chambers
of Commerce (HSR 172)
0. INTRODUCTION
0.1 Scottish Chambers of Commerce (SCC) welcomes
the opportunity to contribute to the Transport Select Committee's
inquiry into the strategic case for High Speed Rail (HSR). SCC
is the umbrella organisation for the 20 key Chambers of Commerce
across Scotland. Our Chambers represent 10,000 member businesses
of all sizes, from sole traders to large multinationals, and operate
across all industry sectors. HSR has long been a priority for
Chambers of Commerce and our members across Scotland and we believe
that Scotland should be an integral part of the UK HSR network
from an early stage.
1. What are the main arguments either for
or against HSR?
1.1 Scottish travellers are currently highly
reliant on air transport for journeys to and from London and indeed
to other key UK cities. The creation of a UK wide HSR network
would widen the transport options for travel between Scotland
and the rest of the UK, it would reduce our reliance on air travel
and would boost the Scottish economy. HSR would bring economic,
environmental and social benefits to Scotland. It would bring
the UK closer together in terms of travel times and would help
bring our transport network up towards the standards already enjoyed
by many of our major competitor nations.
2. How does HSR fit with the Government's
transport policy objectives?
2.1 HSR is designed to improve inter-urban
connectivity. How does that objective compare in importance to
other transport policy objectives and spending programmes, including
those for the strategic road network?
2.1.1 Effective and efficient connectivity between
our cities is a bare minimum in terms of a national transport
strategy. Britain's cities are the keys to national economic growth
and their strength can be maximised by excellent communications
and transport links. In turn, the connectivity of these cities
with the wider economy can ensure that the benefits of wealth
generation can be enjoyed by as wide a range of society as possible.
Of course, HSR will largely directly improve the movement of people
across the UK, and transport policy must continue to support the
movement of goods and services. HSR should free up capacity on
the conventional rail network for improved regional services and
enhanced freight capacity. Nevertheless it will remain important
to invest in our road network to maintain existing services and
to enhance areas where the infrastructure requires to be brought
up to an acceptable standard, for example the A1 north of Newcastle.
From a Scottish perspective, HSR would improve links beyond London
into continental Europe. In addition, it could help to address
both the UK and Scottish Government's longer term environmental
goals by reducing carbon emissions as passengers move from carbon
hungry air travel towards electrically powered HSR trains, which
will increasingly draw their power from renewable sources.
2.2 Focusing on rail, what would be the implications
of expenditure on HSR on funding for the 'classic' network, for
example in relation to investment to increase track and rolling
stock capacities in and around major cities?
2.2.1 The UK HSR network should comprise new,
dedicated lines, freeing up capacity on the existing conventional
lines, which in many parts of the country have become severely
congested. Investment in the conventional rail network must continue
in order to ensure that regional transport can be improved and
that new freight services can be explored, taking further freight
off of our pressured road network. This is one of the reasons
why the UK HSR network should incorporate Scotland from an early
stage in order to reduce the congestion of HSR trains operating
on conventional lines north of Birmingham and actually adding
to congestion problems in the wider rail network.
2.3 What are the implications for domestic
aviation?
2.3.1 Scotland is the part of the UK where the
advent of HSR would have the most positive effect in terms of
aviation. Currently, 6 million out of 7 million passenger
journeys each year between Scotland and London are undertaken
by air. Without HSR, these passengers are likely to continue to
use air transport as neither the East or West Coast Main Lines
are geared up towards accommodating an additional 6 million
passengers per year. HSR would widen transport options when travelling
to or from Scotland and would facilitate additional capacity.
Experience from France and Spain has shown that where journey
times can be reduced to under three hours, the train becomes a
more attractive option than air travel. A direct HSR link from
Glasgow and Edinburgh to London would deliver sub-three hour travel
times and would herald a significant modal shift from air to rail.
This would have a number of advantages for business in Scotland
including a more productive travel experience in comfort with
wi-fi broadband communications available for the duration of the
journey. A reduction in air services could also free up slots
at London airports which could be used to guarantee essential
air routes to more distant Scottish airports such as Aberdeen
and Inverness. We would also hope that freed-up capacity at Scottish
Airports could be used to facilitate additional direct routes
to international destination and improved connectivity from Highlands
and Islands Airports to the central belt of Scotland.
3. Business Case
3.1 How robust are the assumptions and methodology
- for example, on passenger forecasts, modal shifts, fare levels,
scheme costs, economic assumptions (eg about the value of time)
and the impact of lost revenue on the "classic" network?
3.1.1 SCC believes that the full benefits of
HSR can only be achieved by including Scotland in the new network
from the outset. Modal shift will only be a major factor with
the inclusion of Scotland in the network, where HSR should increase
the market share of rail journeys on the Scotland-London route
from around 15% to over 65%. Greengauge 21 have calculated that
HSR could deliver £19.8 billion of economic benefits
for Scotland at a benefit to cost ration of over 3.5:1. Network
Rail studies have also shown that Scotland-London HSR revenues
could cover operating costs, negating the need for ongoing subsidy.
3.2 What would be the pros and cons of resolving
capacity issues in other ways, for example by upgrading the West
Coast Main Line or building a new conventional line?
3.2.1 The West Coast Main Line has already been
upgraded at significant expense and great disruption, particularly
at weekends which had an unwelcome impact on Scotland's tourist
sector. The result has been only a marginal improvement in service.
The solution is to create a dedicated HSR line to free up capacity
on existing lines.
3.3 What would be the pros and cons of alternative
means of managing demand in rail travel, for example by price?
3.3.1 It is difficult to see how price could
be used effectively to vary demand on rail services between Scotland
and London other than to drive customers away through higher prices.
As stated earlier, conventional rail would find it impossible
to cope with 6 million additional passengers each year across
the ECML and WCML.
3.4 What lessons should the Government learn
from other major transport projects to ensure that any new high
speed lines are built on time and to budget?
3.4.1 There are of course many variables that
affect all major infrastructure projects and not all of these
are within the control of contractors or Government (eg exchange
rates, raw materials prices, availability etc). Whilst some of
these can be hedged, there are always some issues which can conspire
to make things difficult. That said, there are numerous examples
both nationally and internationally of large scale projects which
have been delivered on time and on budget. In Scotland, the Scottish
Futures Trust has been engaged to deliver best value on large
scale infrastructure projects and is currently engaged on the
Forth Replacement Crossing Programme. Its wealth of expertise
may be a useful potential source of advice to the UK Government
as well as the Scottish Government on HSR.
4. The strategic route
4.1 The proposed route to the West Midlands
has stations at Euston, Old Oak Common, Birmingham International
and Birmingham Curzon Street. Are these the best possible locations?
What criteria should be used to assess the case for more (or fewer)
intermediate stations?
4.1.1 The strategic importance of HSR should
be to link up the UK quickly and efficiently. From a Scottish
point of view, we want to see fast links from Scotland's key cities
to London and the key cities of England. A priority for Scottish
business is a rapid direct link to central London.
4.2 Which cities should be served by an eventual
high speed network? Is the proposed Y configuration the right
choice?
4.2.1 Ultimately, the UK's HSR network should
serve all of our major cities from Inverness and Aberdeen to Cardiff,
Bristol and London. Initial plans for the network should not be
limited to the proposed Y shaped route to Manchester and Leeds.
Scotland must be included as part of the core network from a very
early stage, otherwise the UK is failing to realise the full benefits
that HSR can bring. Completion of a Y shaped network, as currently
proposed, would result in Scotland being proportionately further
away from London in terms of travel time than it already is, prejudicing
future investment.
4.3 Is the Government correct to build the
network in stages, moving from London northwards?
4.3.1 Any network of this scale must necessarily
be built in stages and we support the construction of the Birmingham-London
section as an initial part of HS2. We do not accept that the route
must necessarily be built northwards from London. Commencing work
at both ends, ie Scotland and London, is the most sensible option
if we are to ensure that this project is completed. This method
was employed during the construction of the Channel Tunnel. Whilst
this would require close co-operation between the UK and Scottish
Governments, particularly at the planning phase, alongside agencies
such as Transport Scotland, this is desirable and, in our view,
is the best available option.
4.4 The Government proposes a link to HS1
as part of Phase 1 but a direct link to Heathrow only as part
of Phase 2. Are those right decisions?
4.4.1 Yes. Direct HSR links to London and continental
Europe are a higher priority than a link to Heathrow.
5. Economic rebalancing and equity
5.1 What evidence is there that HSR will promote
economic regeneration and help bridge the north-south economic
divide?
5.1.1 HSR will only help bridge the north-south
economic divide if it more effectively links the north and south
of the UK. Certainly by putting Edinburgh and Glasgow within a
2.5-3 hour travel radius from London will assist in making Scotland
a more attractive place to do business and this will increase
employment and regeneration opportunities. The estimated economic
benefits for Scotland, at £19.8 billion, are immense
and undoubtedly new business opportunities will arise in the vicinity
of Scotland's HSR stations.
5.2 To what extent should the shape of the
network be influenced by the desirability of supporting local
and regional regeneration?
5.2.1 This is an extremely important consideration.
The purpose of the HSR network should be to maximise economic
benefit for the UK and its nations and regions.
5.3 Which locations and socio-economic groups
will benefit from HSR?
5.3.1 HSR will benefit the areas surrounding
the cities and towns on the network and those areas accessible
to them. Businesses will find these areas attractive and have
the opportunity to expand and create new employment, assisting
a wide range of socio-economic groups.
5.4 How should the Government ensure that
all major beneficiaries of HSR (including local authorities and
business interests) make the appropriate financial contribution
and bear risks appropriately? Should the Government seek support
from the EU's TEN-T programme?
5.4.1 All revenue sources possible, including
the private sector and Europe must be exploited. It would probably
aid an application for funding under the TEN-T programme if the
Government was presenting a truly UK wide HSR network incorporating
Scotland, and possibly Wales, at the outset in order to ensure
a wide and maximised coverage of the potential economic and social
benefits of the project.
6. Impact
6.1 What will be the overall impact of HSR
on UK carbon emissions? How much modal shift from aviation and
roads would be needed for HSR to reduce carbon?
6.1.1 Modal shift towards rail will only be maximised
if Scotland is part of the HSR network from an early stage. All
English cities are already within a three hour rail travel radius
from London and therefore it is only travel from Scotland that
would fall to within this important threshold following the construction
of HSR. As mentioned earlier, the experience of France and Spain
has shown that three hours is the tipping point for modal shift
from air to rail and that Scotland-London rail journeys could
move from around 17% to over 65% market share as a result of HSR.
However if the Government's Y network is not expanded, journey
times from, eg central Edinburgh to central London will still
be quicker by air than rail even by 2033, with rail journey times
still at 3 hours and 30 minutes. Road journeys from Scotland to
London represent a very small market share.
6.2 Are environmental costs and benefits (including
in relation to noise) correctly accounted for in the business
case?
6.2.1 The environmental benefits of HSR are substantial
and increase the further north the network spreads. Modal shift
from air to rail will only be achieved in large measure when journey
times from the central belt of Scotland to London are reduced
to sub-three hours.
6.3 What would be the impact on freight services
on the "classic" network?
6.3.1 A dedicated HSR line between Scotland and
London would free up capacity on the conventional rail network
which could be utilised by freight services.
6.4 How much disruption will there be to services
on the "classic" network during construction, particularly
during the rebuilding of Euston?
6.4.1 Some degree of disruption will be inevitable,
particularly where new HSR track is joining with the conventional
rail network during the initial phases on the project. Ultimately
we envision a future network largely separate from the conventional
network other than where interfaces at mainline stations occur.
May 2011
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