Further written evidence from the Cardiff
Business Partnership (HSR 188B)
Greengauge 21 recently submitted further evidence
to the Transport Committee, partly in response to the Cardiff
Business Partnership submission, which referred to the Greengauge21/KPMG
paper "Consequences for Employment and Economic Growth".
In this supplementary evidence, Greengauge21 pointed out that:
— The
KMPG/Greengauge economic impact analysis "Consequences for
employment and economic growth" related to their proposed
network and not specifically HS2.
— Wales
would not lose 21,000 as a result of HS2 but that their proposed
network could result in 21,000 fewer job being created by 2040
(and 48,000 fewer jobs in SW England).
In response, CBP would like to make the following
points:
We acknowledge that the Greengauge HSR network is
physically different from HS2. However, the economic impact estimated
by Greengauge21 and KPMG in their work, is based upon the reduced
journey times between the major cities. The comparison of estimated
journey times and savings vs today for HS2 and the Greengauge
network are as follows:
| Journey | Current
| HS2 | GG21/KPMG
| Variance |
| London-Birmingham | 1hr 24min
| 49min | 45min | 4min
|
| London-Manchester | 2hr 08min
| 1hr 13min | 1hr 15min |
2min |
| London-Leeds | 2hr 20min |
1hr 20min | 1hr 25min | -5min
|
| London-Sheffield/South Yorks | 2hr 09min
| 1hr 15min | 1hr 20min |
-5min |
| London-Newcastle | 3hr 09min
| 2hr 37min | 1hr 45min |
52min |
| London-Cardiff | 2hr 05min |
*1hr 45min | *1hr 45min | n/a
|
| London-Bristol | 1hr 45min |
*1hr 25min | *1hr 45min | n/a
|
* based upon current plans for IEP and GWML electrification
Sources: DfT HSR Consultation, Greengauge21 Fact Sheet, Journey
Times from London
The variance in journey times estimated between the Greengauge
HSR network and HS2 for those cities most likely to impact economic
activity in Bristol and Cardiff (ie Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds
and Sheffield) is less than five minutes. As stated, given the
GG21 analysis is driven by journey times it would appear reasonable
to conclude that their analysis of economic and employment consequence
holds true in general terms for HS2 as well as their network.
This found the jobs variance by region by 2040 resulting from
the Greenauge HSR network could be:
| Region | Jobs Variance
|
| West Midlands | +68,000 |
| North West | +62,000 |
| Yorkshire and Humber | +49,000
|
| Wales | -21,000 |
| SW England | -48,000 |
| East Midlands | -25,000 |
As stated in the earlier CBP evidence submitted, it is essential
that the GWML is treated as a HSR corridor and that a series of
incremental upgrades aligned with a more flexible franchise is
implemented to deliver journey times of <1hr 20mins between
London and Cardiff and <1hr between Bristol and Cardiff. At
the same time, the CBP strongly urges the DfT to explore a more
strategic solution for a HS2 connection to Heathrow and one that
fully explores the wider benefits to Wales and South West England
of a fully integrated solution so that journey times between Heathrow
and South Wales/South West England are also significantly improved.
20 September 2011
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