High Speed Rail - Transport Committee Contents

Further written evidence from the Cardiff Business Partnership (HSR 188B)

Greengauge 21 recently submitted further evidence to the Transport Committee, partly in response to the Cardiff Business Partnership submission, which referred to the Greengauge21/KPMG paper "Consequences for Employment and Economic Growth". In this supplementary evidence, Greengauge21 pointed out that:

—  The KMPG/Greengauge economic impact analysis "Consequences for employment and economic growth" related to their proposed network and not specifically HS2.

—  Wales would not lose 21,000 as a result of HS2 but that their proposed network could result in 21,000 fewer job being created by 2040 (and 48,000 fewer jobs in SW England).

In response, CBP would like to make the following points:

We acknowledge that the Greengauge HSR network is physically different from HS2. However, the economic impact estimated by Greengauge21 and KPMG in their work, is based upon the reduced journey times between the major cities. The comparison of estimated journey times and savings vs today for HS2 and the Greengauge network are as follows:
JourneyCurrent HS2GG21/KPMG Variance
London-Birmingham1hr 24min 49min45min4min
London-Manchester2hr 08min 1hr 13min1hr 15min 2min
London-Leeds2hr 20min 1hr 20min1hr 25min-5min
London-Sheffield/South Yorks2hr 09min 1hr 15min1hr 20min -5min
London-Newcastle3hr 09min 2hr 37min1hr 45min 52min
London-Cardiff2hr 05min *1hr 45min*1hr 45minn/a
London-Bristol1hr 45min *1hr 25min*1hr 45minn/a

* based upon current plans for IEP and GWML electrification

Sources: DfT HSR Consultation, Greengauge21 Fact Sheet, Journey Times from London

The variance in journey times estimated between the Greengauge HSR network and HS2 for those cities most likely to impact economic activity in Bristol and Cardiff (ie Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds and Sheffield) is less than five minutes. As stated, given the GG21 analysis is driven by journey times it would appear reasonable to conclude that their analysis of economic and employment consequence holds true in general terms for HS2 as well as their network. This found the jobs variance by region by 2040 resulting from the Greenauge HSR network could be:

RegionJobs Variance
West Midlands+68,000
North West+62,000
Yorkshire and Humber+49,000
SW England-48,000
East Midlands-25,000

As stated in the earlier CBP evidence submitted, it is essential that the GWML is treated as a HSR corridor and that a series of incremental upgrades aligned with a more flexible franchise is implemented to deliver journey times of <1hr 20mins between London and Cardiff and <1hr between Bristol and Cardiff. At the same time, the CBP strongly urges the DfT to explore a more strategic solution for a HS2 connection to Heathrow and one that fully explores the wider benefits to Wales and South West England of a fully integrated solution so that journey times between Heathrow and South Wales/South West England are also significantly improved.

20 September 2011

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Prepared 8 November 2011