Public Libraries
Dan Jarvis: To ask the Secretary of State for Culture, Olympics, Media and Sport what criteria determine whether a community library is or is not considered as part of a local authority's statutory provision of a comprehensive and efficient public library service. [119188]
Mr Vaizey [holding answer 5 September 2012]: It is for library authorities to determine which libraries form part of their statutory comprehensive and efficient library service, having assessed local need in light of available resources.
It is entirely possible for a volunteer-supported or community managed library to be included within the group of libraries that form part of a library authority's statutory service. The library authority must determine what facilities and resources it needs in order to deliver a comprehensive and efficient public library service.
Research
Dan Jarvis: To ask the Secretary of State for Culture, Olympics, Media and Sport how much her Department spent on research and development in (a) 2008-09, (b) 2009-10, (c) 2010-11 and (d) 2011-12; and how much she plans to spend in (i) 2012-13, (ii) 2013-14 and (iii) 2014-15. [121887]
Hugh Robertson: The Department for Culture, Media and Sport’s (DCMS) research consists of the collection and analysing of data about the work of our sectors. The following table sets out the Department’s spend and projected spend on such research. These figures include contributions by DCMS arm’s length bodies. For future years, these figures are based on current plans, and subsequent budgetary reviews may cause these to change.
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| DCMS spend on research (£000) | |
Sports: Disability
David Morris: To ask the Secretary of State for Culture, Olympics, Media and Sport whether she plans to take steps to encourage broadcasters to televise more disabled sports in addition to the Paralympic Games. [121141]
Mr Vaizey: My right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport intends to have introductory meetings with the broadcasters soon to discuss a range of issues, including their plans to build on the legacy of the Olympics and Paralympics.
Tourism: Lancashire
David Morris: To ask the Secretary of State for Culture, Olympics, Media and Sport what steps her Department has taken to maintain tourist visitor numbers at attractions in the Lune Valley and Carnforth. [121930]
Hugh Robertson: The Lune Valley and Carnforth are an important part of our tourism offer. Although VisitEngland, our national tourism board, does not promote at the local level, it does engage in national promotions and public relations work which benefits such locations as north Lancashire. VisitEngland is currently developing four thematic marketing campaigns based on city, coast, countryside and heritage, and Lune Valley and Carnforth embodies all four.
A new Destination Management Organisation is currently being set up in Lancashire which will be covering the Lune Valley and Carnforth constituency, and VisitEngland staff will be meeting with their team during September to discuss key priorities, and to look further at promotion and development opportunities.
Tourism: Yorkshire
Miss McIntosh: To ask the Secretary of State for Culture, Olympics, Media and Sport what recent representations she has received on the status of Yorkshire as a destination for tourism; and if she will make a statement. [121795]
Hugh Robertson: I have not directly received representations about its status as a tourist destination, but Yorkshire is an important part of our overall tourism offer and is featured in the marketing and promotional efforts of VisitBritain and VisitEngland.
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Scotland
Food
Margaret Curran: To ask the Secretary of State for Scotland when he last visited a food bank; and when he next plans to do so. [121835]
Michael Moore: I have not visited a food bank recently but am aware of the hon. Member's concerns on this issue and can reassure her of the Government's commitment to addressing the issues that can lead to food bank use. I look forward to discussing this with her when we meet in the near future.
Attorney-General
Domestic Violence
Andrew Stunell: To ask the Attorney-General (1) how many prosecutions of (a) men and (b) women for acts of domestic violence there were in (i) Stockport, (ii) Greater Manchester and (iii) each Crown Prosecution Service area in England and Wales in each of the last five years; [122300]
(2) how many convictions of (a) men and (b) women for acts of domestic violence there were in (i) Stockport, (ii) Greater Manchester and (iii) each Crown Prosecution Service in England and Wales in each of the last five years. [122099]
The Solicitor-General: The Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) maintains a central record of the outcomes of defendant proceedings identified as involving offences of domestic violence.
Tables containing the numbers of completed defendant prosecutions and convictions, for men and women, recorded by the CPS in the Greater Manchester area and all 42 police force areas of England and Wales during the last five years have been deposited in the Library of the House.
Female Genital Mutilation
Ann Clwyd: To ask the Attorney-General what plans he has to review the rate of prosecutions of offences involving female genital mutilation; and if he will make a statement. [121794]
The Solicitor-General: The Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP) chaired a roundtable meeting on 28 September 2012, about prosecuting offences of FGM. A number of interested parties including members of the All Party Parliamentary Group, police officers, medical professionals, and charities supporting victims of FGM, were invited to explore how to overcome the barriers to reporting the offence and produce sufficient evidence to support a successful prosecution. There is likely to be a follow up meeting next summer to see what progress has been made. In the circumstances, 1 have no plans to review the rate of prosecutions for offences involving female genital mutilation (FGM).
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Research
Dan Jarvis: To ask the Attorney-General how much the Law Officers' Departments spent on research and development in (a) 2008-09, (b) 2009-10, (c) 2010-11 and (d) 2011-12; and how much they plan to spend in (i) 2012-13, (ii) 2013-14 and (iii) 2014-15. [121891]
The Solicitor-General: The Law Officers' Departments have spent no money on research and development in 2008-09, 2009-10, 2010-11 and 2011-12 and have no plans to do so in 2012-13, 2013-14 and 2014-15.
Social Security Benefits: Fraud
Priti Patel: To ask the Attorney-General pursuant to the answer of 5 September 2011, Official Report, columns 125-6W, on social security benefits: fraud, how many arrest warrants had been issued in cases where a defendant had failed to attend a hearing or trial without an explanation acceptable to the court on the most recent date for which figures are available; what the monetary value of the alleged fraud was in each such case; and how many such warrants were successfully executed in the latest period for which figures are available. [122126]
The Solicitor-General: Benefit fraud prosecutions that had previously been prosecuted by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) became the responsibility of the Crown Prosecution Service with effect from 1 April 2012.
The Crown Prosecution Service does not however hold data on the number of warrants issued or successfully executed, or the monetary value of the alleged fraud in such cases. Such data could not be reasonably obtained locally or nationally other than by a manual exercise which would incur a disproportionate cost.
Wales
Research
Dan Jarvis: To ask the Secretary of State for Wales how much his Department spent on research and development in (a) 2008-09, (b) 2009-10, (c) 2010-11 and (d) 2011-12; and how much he plans to spend in (i) 2012-13, (ii) 2013-14 and (iii) 2014-15. [121889]
Stephen Crabb: There was no spending on research and development between 2008-09 and 2011-12. The need for research is assessed on a case by case basis, and any future spend will be met from within the Department’s overall spending review settlement.
Training
Luciana Berger: To ask the Secretary of State for Wales what media or public speaking training Ministers in his Department have received since May 2010. [122067]
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Prime Minister
Iraq: Military Intervention
George Galloway: To ask the Prime Minister what information he holds on which Ministers, legal advisers and officials were excluded from discussions on military action against Iraq. [121114]
The Prime Minister: The Iraq Inquiry's terms of reference cover consideration of the run-up to the conflict, including the way decisions were made and actions taken. The Inquiry has access to all information held by the Government relevant to the decision to take military action.
Defence
Armed Forces
Sir Nick Harvey: To ask the Secretary of State for Defence pursuant to the oral statement of 18 July 2012, Official Report, column 643, on defence transformation, how many uniformed personnel were based in Scotland in each of the three armed services at the time of the statement. [121831]
Mr Francois: At the time of the statement in the House on 18 July 2011, Official Report, column 643, the number of uniformed personnel based in Scotland is estimated to have been as follows:
| Number | |
These figures are correct as at 1 July 2011, and are rounded to the nearest 10.
Bahrain
Caroline Lucas: To ask the Secretary of State for Defence what the names are of the people who participated in the 10 September 2012 delegation to Bahrain; and whether they participated in (a) an official, (b) an unofficial, (c) a private and (d) another capacity, specifying what the capacity was. [121905]
Mr Philip Hammond: In addition to myself, the delegation consisted of one member of private office staff and a special adviser. General Simon Mayall also attended a number of meetings in his role as defence senior adviser middle east. All personnel visited Bahrain in an official capacity in support of Her Majesty Government’s policy for defence engagement and wider foreign policy.
Cyprus
Andrew Rosindell: To ask the Secretary of State for Defence how much his Department has spent providing bottled drinking water in the Sovereign Base Areas of (a) Akrotiri and (b) Dhekelia in the last 12 months. [122119]
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Mr Robathan: From 1 September 2011 to 31 August 2012, the British Forces Cyprus budget spent the following on bottled water:
| € | |
The water was for use at decompression facilities, for in flight catering (flights transiting through Cyprus), and on exercises.
Defence Procurement
Mr Ainsworth: To ask the Secretary of State for Defence which contracts his Department renegotiated in (a) 2010, (b) 2011 and (c) 2012; and what estimate he has made of the savings to his Department arising from each such contract renegotiation. [119937]
Mr Dunne [holding answer 7 September 2012]: I refer the right hon. Member to the answer I gave on 8 October 2012, Official Report, column 665W, to the hon. Member for Plymouth, Moor View (Alison Seabeck).
Mr Ainsworth: To ask the Secretary of State for Defence whether any of his Department's procurement programmes have been delayed since publication of the Strategic Defence and Security Review; and what implications any such delay will have on the total projected costs of each programme. [112716]
Mr Philip Hammond [holding answer 19 June 2012]: In-Service Dates for new equipment are formally set at the Main Gate investment approval point.
Since the publication of the Strategic Defence and Security Review in October 2010, two new equipment procurement projects, which had previously passed their Main Gate approvals, have been delayed.
Because the cost implications of delay to programmes is a matter of negotiation with contractors, disclosure of further information at this stage would prejudice the Department's commercial interests.
Alison Seabeck: To ask the Secretary of State for Defence (1) pursuant to the oral statement of 14 May 2012, Official Report, columns 261-4, on defence budget and transformation, which programmes have been ended in planning round 12; [115949]
(2) with reference to planning round 12, which projects which have been (a) cut and (b) deferred as a result of steps taken to balance his Department's budget. [113053]
Mr Philip Hammond: In-Service Dates for new equipment are formally set at the Main Gate investment approval point. As a result of decisions taken in Planning Round 12, no major procurement project that had passed its Main Gate Investment Approval point has been ended and one has had its In-Service date deferred.
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I am withholding the details of the project concerned since their release would prejudice the Department's position in its negotiations with its suppliers.
NATO
Angus Robertson: To ask the Secretary of State for Defence how many flights the UK has made under the NATO Strategic Airlift Interim Solution since December 2011; what the (a) total cost and (b) cost per flight has been; and which aircraft were used. [120307]
Mr Dunne: Between 1 January 2012 and 30 September 2012 the UK has chartered seven flights under the NATO Strategic Airlift Interim Solution (SALIS). A further flight is planned for 15 October 2012. The aircraft used for these flights is an Antonov An-124.
Based on the relevant data held by the Department the cost incurred by the Ministry of Defence for drawing on the SALIS arrangement since 1 January 2012 is estimated to be £3.5 million. However, not all of the invoices have yet been received for the seven flights.
Due to the pricing mechanism used by participating NATO countries for the SALIS arrangement it is not possible to offer meaningful information on the cost per flight.
Ministerial Visits: Nottinghamshire
Mr Spencer: To ask the Secretary of State for Defence what ministerial visits to (a) the City of Nottingham and (b) Nottinghamshire have taken place since May 2010. [121771]
Mr Philip Hammond: Nottinghamshire figures could be provided only at disproportionate cost, but figures for the East Midlands were provided on 3 September 2012, Official Report, columns 59-60W, to the right hon. Member for East Renfrewshire (Jim Murphy), and are shown as follows:
| Since May 2010 to June 2012: East Midlands | |
| Number of visits | |
Olympic Games 2012: Security
Sir Bob Russell: To ask the Secretary of State for Defence how many armed forces personnel were deployed to provide security at the London 2012 Olympics and Paralympics, by unit; how many working days of their time this amounted to; and if he will make a statement. [122057]
Mr Robathan: The number of armed forces personnel deployed to support the safety and security of the Olympic and Paralympic Games peaked at 18,700.
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The personnel came from a mixture of established units as well as individual augmentees. Units and elements of units involved in the operation are set out by service as follows:
HMS Ocean
HMS Bulwark
RNAS Culdrose
RNAS Yeovilton
30 Commando Royal Marines
43 Commando Royal Marines
42 Commando Royal Marines
45 Commando Royal Marines
Commando Logistic Regiment
24 Commando Engineer Regiment
1 Assault Group Royal Marines
539 Assault Squadron Royal Marines
Fleet Diving Squadron
RFA Mounts Bay
HMS Blazer
HMS Exploit
HMS Express
HMS Pursuer
HMS Raider
HMS Smiter
HMS Tracker
Royal Navy and Marine Reservists
Household Cavalry Mounted Regiment
1(st) The Queen's Dragoon Guards
Queen's Royal Hussars
Irish Guards
The London Regiment
3 Scots
The Argyll and Sutherland Highlanders (5th Battalion The Royal Regiment of Scotland)
7 Scots
3(rd) Battalion The Royal Anglian Regiment
1 The Princess of Wales Royal Regiment
2 The Princess of Wales Royal Regiment
3 The Princess of Wales Royal Regiment
1(st) Battalion The Royal Regiment of Fusiliers
2(nd) Battalion The Mercian Regiment
2(nd) Battalion The Parachute Regiment
3(rd) Battalion The Parachute Regiment
4(th) Battalion The Parachute Regiment
1(st) Battalion The Rifles
2(nd) Battalion The Rifles
4(th) Battalion The Rifles
5(th) Battalion The Rifles
6(th) Battalion The Rifles
The King's Troop Royal Horse Artillery
7(th) Regiment Royal Horse Artillery
26(th) Regiment Royal Artillery
12(th) Regiment Royal Artillery
16(th) Regiment Royal Artillery
100 Regiment Royal Artillery
106 Regiment Royal Artillery
23 Regiment Royal Engineers
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28 Regiment Royal Engineers
35 Regiment Royal Engineers
HQ 1 Signal Brigade
1 (UK) Armoured Division Signal Regiment
10 Signal Regiment
39 Signal Regiment
71 Signal Regiment
HQ 101 Logistic Brigade
HQ 104 Logistic Brigade
13 Air Assault Support Regiment
17 Port and Maritime Regiment
150 Regt Royal Logistics Corps
151 Regt Royal Logistics Corps
152 Regt Royal Logistics Corps
156 Regt Royal Logistics Corps
27 Regt Royal Logistics Corp
29 EOD and Search Group
1 Military Working Dog Squadron
11 EOD Regiment
16 Air Assault Brigade HQ
13 Air Assault Support Regiment
Queen’s Own Yeomanry
Composite Units to include: 13 Medical Regiment, 216 Signals Squadron and 156 Provost Company Royal Military Police
4(th) Royal Army Medical Corps
3(rd) Regiment Royal Military Police
Joint Force Air Component HQ
1 Air Control Centre
RAF Conningsby
RAF Leuchars
RAF Odiham
RAF Benson
RAF Northolt
Queen's Colour Squadron RAF Regiment
3 Force Protection Wing RAF Regiment
5131 Bomb Disposal Squadron
The total number of working days has not yet been finalised. However over the period of the Games, some 60 days, it is estimated to be of the order of 500,000 to 600,000 man-days. A breakdown by unit of the number of armed forces personnel deployed is not held centrally.
Research
Dan Jarvis: To ask the Secretary of State for Defence how much his Department spent on research and development in (a) 2008-09, (b) 2009-10, (c) 2010-11 and (d) 2011-12; and how much he plans to spend in (i) 2012-13, (ii) 2013-14 and (iii) 2014-15. [121875]
Mr Dunne: Ministry of Defence research and development (R and D) expenditure for financial years up to 2010-11 is published in “Science, Engineering and Technology (SET) Statistics 2012”, available at:
http://www.bis.gov.uk/policies/science/science-funding/set-stats
The figures for net R and D spend across the Ministry of Defence (MOD) for the year 2008-09, 2009-10 and 2010-11, inclusive of non-recoverable VAT at current prices, are shown in the following table:
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| Financial year | MOD research and development (£ million) |
MOD R and D expenditure statistics are designated National Statistics status and as such the release of the figure for 2011-12 is embargoed until they are published for the first time by the Office for National Statistics in March 2013.
There is no centralised budget for R and D because development expenditure is applied as needed against requirements of individual equipment programmes.
Reserve Forces
Sir Bob Russell: To ask the Secretary of State for Defence how many civilians employed by his Department are members of the reserves in each of the armed forces; and what proportion of the civilian workforce of his Department this represents. [121846]
Mr Francois: Civilian employees are encouraged to volunteer the information as to whether they are a reservist in their records, but this is not mandatory. It is estimated that there are about 500 reservists and, of those, we estimate that about 15% are Naval reserves, 73% are Army reserve and 12% are RAF reserves. The figure of 500 represents slightly less than 1% of the total civilian workforce.
Gareth Johnson: To ask the Secretary of State for Defence what plans his Department has to encourage higher levels of participation in the reserve forces. [121994]
Mr Francois: An additional £1.8 billion is being invested in the reserve forces over the next 10 years to grow the trained strength of the reserves of all three services by 50% or more by 2018: the Royal Navy and Royal Marine Reserves to 3,100, the Territorial component of the Army Reserve to 30,000 and the Royal Auxiliary Air Force to 1,800. The Future Reserves 2020 (FR20) programme is on track to deliver the revised manning levels in 2018.
The FR20 programme will include the engagement required to ensure the necessary levels of participation. For example, there will be a move to relationships with employers based on partnering.
The Ministry of Defence will consult the public and employers on how to achieve our vision for the reserves, which includes the participation required of reservists. A formal public consultation, beginning in late October, will enable a better understanding of the needs and desires of employers and potential and existing reservists, and how they may best be balanced with the requirements of Defence on an enduring basis.
Trident
Mr Ainsworth: To ask the Secretary of State for Defence which Minister in his Department is responsible for the Trident Alternatives Review due to report in the autumn. [120195]
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Mr Philip Hammond [holding answer 10 September 2012]:I refer the right hon. Member to the answer given by the hon. Member for North Devon (Sir Nick Harvey) on 26 March 2012, Official Report, column 957W, in which he stated that the Trident Alternatives Review is expected to report to the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister at the end of the year.
The Trident Alternatives Review continues to be led by the Cabinet Office, aims to assist the Liberal Democrats in assessing the case for any alternative systems that could maintain a credible nuclear deterrent at lower cost. Ministerial oversight will be provided by the Chief Secretary to the Treasury.
Mr Spellar: To ask the Secretary of State for Defence which Minister in his Department is responsible for the review of the future of the UK nuclear deterrent. [120503]
Mr Philip Hammond: There is no review being conducted on the future of the UK nuclear deterrent. The Government's policy remains as I set out on 18 June 2012, Official Report, column 611, that the Vanguard class submarines will be replaced at the end of their lives in the late 2020s/early 2030s by a successor submarine carrying the Trident missile, subject to main gate investment approval for the project in 2016.
The Trident Alternatives Review being led by the Cabinet Office, aims to assist the Liberal Democrats in assessing the case for any alternative systems that could maintain a credible nuclear deterrent at lower cost. Ministerial oversight will be provided by the Chief Secretary to the Treasury.
World War II: Anniversaries
Gordon Henderson: To ask the Secretary of State for Defence whether he has any plans to commemorate in 2014 the 75th anniversary of the Battle of the River Plate; and if he will consider funding a suitable memorial. [121934]
Mr Francois: It is Government policy not to fund memorials but a matter for the public and veterans associations to manage as they see fit. The Government are considering a number of commemorative events for both world war one and world war two.
At present nothing specific is being planned for the 75th anniversary of the Battle of the Plate, although I would expect the event to be marked in someway, and this matter has already been discussed with the Royal Naval museum at Portsmouth.
Written Questions: Government Responses
Mr Ainsworth: To ask the Secretary of State for Defence when he plans to answer question 112716, on procurement, tabled on 14 June 2012 for named day answer on 19 June 2012. [117717]
Mr Philip Hammond [holding answer 17 July 2012]: I replied to the right hon. Member today.
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Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Agriculture: Pay
Huw Irranca-Davies: To ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs how many agricultural workers in each parliamentary constituency are covered by the provisions of the Agricultural Wages Board. [122102]
Mr Heath: The number of paid agricultural workers in each parliamentary constituency is shown in the following table. This includes salaried managers, regular workers, casual and gang workers.
The numbers are based on 2010 data for the new parliamentary constituency boundaries and for commercial holdings with significant levels of farming activity. These significant levels are classified as any holding with more than 5 hectares of agricultural land, 1 hectare of orchards, 0.5 hectares of vegetables or 0.1 hectares of protected crops, or more than 10 cows, 50 pigs, 20 sheep, 20 goats or 1,000 poultry.
| Parliamentary constituency | Paid |
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| Note: Where figures relate to less than five holdings data are suppressed and replaced with an asterisk (*) to avoid disclosure of information about individual holdings. If only one item contributing to a total in a row or column has been suppressed then secondary suppression is required to preserve confidentiality of the initially suppressed item. Secondary suppression is applied to the item which relates to the second smallest number of holdings. Source: DEFRA Survey of Agriculture and Horticulture—June 2010 | |
Air Pollution
Philip Davies: To ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs how much has been awarded to each local authority in air quality grants in each of the last two years; and by what means the level of funding awarded to each local authority is determined. [121699]
Richard Benyon: Tables showing the local authorities in England that were awarded air quality grants in 2010-11 and 2011-12 have been placed in the House Library.
We are currently assessing project bids for the 2012-13 allocation period. As in the previous year, priority for grant funding will be given to projects that propose tackling exceedences of the UK objectives and EU limit values for nitrogen dioxide (NO2). Eligibility has been limited to English local authorities with one or more air quality management areas for NO2 and those authorities where DEFRA's national air quality assessment in 2010, as reported to the European Commission, identified an exceedence in their area. Full details of the eligibility criteria are on DEFRA's website.
DEFRA provided additional funding of £1.186 million for the 2011-12 programme because the original £2 million fund had been very heavily oversubscribed. £2 million has been provided for the 2012-13 programme. The allocations will be announced later this year.
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Local authorities that are successful in gaining this funding are required to provide DEFRA with a progress report to monitor the delivery and value for money of each project.
Beavers
Zac Goldsmith: To ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs what his policy is on the reintroduction of beavers in the UK. [121739]
Richard Benyon: This is a devolved matter so I can only answer with regard to England. Currently the Government has no plans to re-introduce the European beaver to the wild in England.
Bisphenol A
Annette Brooke: To ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs what discussions he has had with the Secretary of State for Health on cross-departmental discussions assessing the cancer risk of environmental exposure to endocrine disrupting chemicals such as Bisphenol A. [121652]
Mr Heath: There is an active network of officials across UK Government who keep each other appraised of developments in the regulation of Bisphenol-A (BPA) specifically and endocrine disruption more generally. This group is also engaged at EU level.
It is well established that BPA can disrupt the endocrine (hormone) system, but only extremely weakly. A recent, well designed study found no adverse effects in rats exposed to levels 4,000 times higher than the maximum exposure of human adults in the general population.
BPA has been found not to produce significant carcinogenic responses in rats and mice. Further reassurance arises from BPA's tack of mutagenicity in relevant animal studies; substances that otherwise produce positive results in such tests are generally viewed as a carcinogenic threat to humans.
In 2006, the European Food Standards Agency (EFSA) assessed the health impact of BPA and established a Tolerable Daily Intake (TDI), which is the amount that can be eaten every day, over a whole lifetime, without causing appreciable harm. The TDI is well above general levels of human consumption. A further Opinion by EFSA on BPA was published on 30 September 2010 and took into account more recent studies on possible BPA enhancement of breast cancer, but concluded that the existing TDI did not require adjustment.
In the light of the EFSA assessment, we do not propose to limit further the use of BPA in non-food applications beyond current levels, which have been set following already rigorous risk assessment.
BPA is registered under the EU REACH (registration, evaluation, authorisation and restriction of chemicals) regulation. According to REACH provisions, the German competent authority is already evaluating its registration with a view to deciding whether any more information or regulatory action is needed. We should know more about the outcome of this process early next year. While there is currently no reason to believe that robust evidence will arise requiring further controls on BPA, we remain alert to any evidence derived from this or other sources.
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Cod
Dr Offord: To ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs what estimate his Department has made of the likely level of cod stocks in UK territorial waters over the next decade. [121637]
Richard Benyon: International Council for the Exploitation of the Seas fisheries scientists only make fish stock forecasts suitable for the setting of management quotas up to a maximum of two to three years in advance. Over longer time periods natural variation in the recruitment of young fish to the stock introduces significant uncertainty to the estimates. Forecasts are used to inform cod stock conservation policies and in the design of management objectives.
DEFRA's overarching position is to follow scientific advice relating to setting catch limits and by doing so we expect cod stocks caught in UK territorial waters to recover to be within safe biological limits and achieve maximum sustainable yield for the stocks.