International Development CommitteeWritten evidence submitted by Dr. Tom Mitchell, Head of Climate Change, Overseas Development Institute (ODI)

1. The evidence presented in this submission reflects the views of particular ODI staff and does not necessarily constitute an Institute perspective. With inputs from a group of ODI’s climate change and environment researchers,1 it focuses on the climate change and sustainability aspects of the post-2015 development agenda.

Climate Change Impacts are Being Felt Now and Will Get Worse

2. The rate of decline of Arctic sea-ice is accelerating at unprecedented levels, exceeding the most pessimistic predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.2 The government of Kiribati has agreed to purchase land in Fiji with a view to moving the country’s entire population because of salinisation of their water supplies due to rising sea levels.3 Extreme weather events are now more frequent and severe as a result of our greenhouse gas emissions,4 with climate change making the recent US drought 20 times more likely.5 Droughts and floods in food producing regions are having a dramatic effect on global food prices, with significant implications for poor and vulnerable people who already spend 75% of their income on food.6 The Great Barrier Reef has been reduced by 50% in the last three decades as a result of climate change and tropical cyclones7 and many other marine ecosystems, on which poor people rely, are under considerable pressure.8 Climate change and resource scarcity have also been linked to inter-communal and cross-border conflict, something that we know to be a major barrier to development and poverty reduction.9

3. These impacts are associated with a 0.8°C rise in average global temperatures since pre-industrial times. International climate change negotiations have the objective of keeping the average global temperature rise below 2°C. The current level of action to reduce greenhouse gases has set us on path to 3.3°C by 2100.10 With accelerating climate change and its associated impacts on conflict risk, livelihood opportunities, disasters, food prices, health and biodiversity, it is unthinkable not to have action on climate change embedded in post-2015 development goals. While the impacts on poverty and development are already clear now, they will be much more significant by 2030 or 2040 when the next goals period is likely to end.

Without Urgent Action, Climate Change Will Reverse Development Progress

4. Consequently, there can no longer be any separation between environment and development or between sustainable development and human development. ”Development” itself must fully embrace environmental protection,11 action on climate change, resilience to shocks and sustainability at its heart. The post-2015 development goals must address climate change and associated shocks and stresses head on, or risk progress on poverty reduction, health, nutrition and education being reversed. This may happen either within the period of the next goals or shortly after, if adequate progress is not made on tackling climate change. Research on the potential impact of climate change in rural India finds that poverty could increase by between 1% and 6% by 2040 when compared to a counterfactual of no global warming as a result of lost agricultural productivity and incomes and rising cereal prices.12 Ignoring climate change and relying on other processes to deal with climate change and resource scarcity, risks the continued separation between action on poverty and action on the environment. Equally, thinking that environmental challenges can be dealt with later is false—the science dictates action now and development decisions taken today (eg on energy and transport infrastructure) lock in environment and climate impacts for a generation or more13 (content of future goals, question 9; relationship with SDGs, question 2; timescale, question 8).

5. Nonetheless, including climate change, resilience and resource scarcity within post-2015 development goals does likely elevate the political complexity of negotiating an agreement. There are some key tensions. Any agreement that places unfair levels of responsibility on the part of the world’s poorest people and countries to meet development as well as sustainability, climate or resource efficiency targets should be avoided. To stay within environmental limits and to provide a safe space for poverty reduction in poor countries, consumption patterns (including greenhouse gas emissions) in richer countries must be addressed. Consequently, if the goals are not universal and do not address levels of resource use and efficiency in some form, then sustained progress on development and poverty reduction will not be possible. In this context, Scott and Shepherd (2011) discuss the role of climate change in post-2015 goals, highlighting that consumption goals or targets as part of a wider framework of goals would be necessary to address these constraints14 (coverage, question 3).

New Development Paths are Necessary and Must be Supported by Post-2015 Goals

6. Equally, the magnitude of the climate change crisis, as indicated by the latest science simply does not allow poor countries and poor people to follow the same high emissions, resource intensive development path as others have in the past and the post-2015 goals should not shy away from this fact. Universal goals, that motivate progress on reducing poverty and inequality as well as on tackling climate change, using natural resources efficiently and other measures to make progress resilient, should be the only choice. A universal goal on “sustainable energy for all” can serve as a useful example, where targets would relate to poverty (universal access to modern energy services) and sustainability/avoided emissions (doubling the rate of improvements in energy efficiency and a share of renewable energy in the global energy mix).15 With this in mind, discussions on future post-2015 development goals should also be acutely aware of the overlap and potential harmonisation with other international policy frameworks being negotiated over a similar time frame. These include the 2015 climate change agreement set out in the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action and the successor to the Hyogo Framework for Action on Disaster Reduction (content of future goals, question 9; process, question 4).

Environmental Negotiations can Provide Insights for Agreeing Post-2015 Goals

7. Negotiations on climate change under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) can provide some insights into the political challenges of achieving agreements on global goals that blend environment and development considerations. These insights may be useful for the coming post-2015 goals process:

(a)Environmental targets (such as a 2°C rise in global temperatures), with some basis of scientific backing, can create political momentum and a focus for mobilising action16 (targets, question 5).

(b)Action plans at national level to both adapt to and mitigate climate change have helped to shift public policy concerns on development decisions from the short to the longer-term.

(c)Action on the environment and climate needs to be sustained in the long-term to be successful, with short-term injections of resources unlikely to generate the progress required. Post-2015 goals therefore need to have a target of 2030 for example, but be considering whether people and countries are better prepared for the future to 2050 and beyond (timescale, question 8).

(d)The principle of common but differentiated responsibilities17 underpins many aspects of negotiations of the UNFCCC. In the context of post-2015 goals, this would require goals to cover all countries but recognise the differentiated nature of the contributions to achieving targets based on their circumstances—either of poverty for example or the extent to which the country had a responsibility to achieve environmental targets based on their past actions. One of the challenges recently evident in the UN climate negotiations is the lack of flexibility in this system—as it provides limited opportunity for reflecting changes in countries’ ability and responsibility (coverage, question 3).

(e.While post-2015 development goals will likely be negotiated by national governments and aggregated through national level reporting, the UNFCCC negotiations demonstrate that progress can often be achieved in the more contentious areas of the negotiations by linking sub-national entities. Networks of cities for example (through the C40 network or ICLEI initiatives) have tended to generate innovation on climate change mitigation and resilience. Learning from and potentially replicating such networks in the context of post-2015 goals may be prudent (process, question 4).

(f)Country blocs are a key aspect of UNFCCC negotiations, but are regularly dividing and reforming as socio-economic contexts change, as issues emerge and as politics dictate. Recent changes have seen the G-77 and China fragment, a group of progressive developed and developing countries, known as the Cartagena Dialogue emerge, and new alliances being forged between the EU, Least Development Countries and the Association of Small Island States. Such blocs tend to enable smaller countries and those with limited resources to have a stronger voice than would otherwise normally be the case. Such blocs and alliances may emerge in the post-2015 negotiations (process, question 4).

(g)When considering mechanisms for financing future global goals, it is important to beware of the risks of fragmentation—a lesson that has been evident in research on aid effectiveness as well as the experience of new financial mechanisms established by the UNFCCC. Instead, it is important to build on what is already in place, rather than assuming new mechanisms are needed. At national level, the national budget should be considered as the default channel for public financing (finance, question 6).

There are Concrete Proposals for Including Action on Climate Change

8. While political agreement may prove challenging, it cannot be denied that climate change will affect the achievement of future development goals. Consequently, post-2015 development goals need to incorporate measures to strengthen resilience to the impacts of climate change and take steps to ensure the development actions taken to achieve the new goals do not exacerbate climate change by increasing global greenhouse gas emissions. Box 1 presents some proposals for ways action on climate change might be incorporated in a set of goals (content of future goals, question 9).

Box 1: Action on Climate Change and Sustainability in Post-2015 Development Goals

The post-2015 goals should have a carbon budget

The set of goals could have an overall “greenhouse gas emissions target”, where from an established baseline, progress towards the goals should be carbon neutral at worst (not contribute to net greenhouse gas emissions). This will likely require trade-offs when setting targets and choosing methods of implementation.

Universal goals should include climate and sustainability targets

Each goal could have resource efficiency and climate change-related targets. Examples are as follows.18

Goal: Modern energy access for all

Universal access to modern energy services.

Doubling the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency.

Doubling the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.

Goal: Water and sanitation for all

Ensuring universal access to improved drinking water sources.

Ensuring universal access to improved sanitation.

X% reduction in per capita global freshwater use by x.

Goal: Healthy nutrition for all

Zero incidence of child stunting by x.

X% reduction in rate of biodiversity and forest loss by x.

X% reduction in nitrogen levels in the world’s oceans by x.

There should be specific goals promoting resilience to the impacts of climate change

Some climate change is already locked in and impacts will become more severe. Development will need to become increasingly resilient to these impacts. Suggestions for relevant goals are as follows:

Goal: To reduce risk and build resilience to [natural] disasters for all19

X% reduction in people affected by disasters by x

All countries have national disaster resilience plan by x

All countries using forward looking risk assessments to make development decisions by x

Goal: Access to comprehensive social protection for all

% of people with access to education and healthcare

% of children with income security during childhood

X% reduction in poverty impacts in the period following shocks and stresses.

5 October 2012