Science and Technology CommitteeWritten evidence submitted by the Equality Commission for Northern Ireland (Census 40)

Executive Summary

1. The Equality Commission for Northern Ireland is concerned that the ending of the decennial Census of Population could have considerable implications for the understanding of equality related issues in Northern Ireland.

2. Although we recognise that the Office for National Statistics (ONS) “Beyond 2011 Programme” is centred on assessing alternative options for producing the population and socio-demographic data required in England and Wales, we wish to respond to the inquiry as changes in England and Wales will likely have considerable implications for Northern Ireland.

3. The ending of the Census will provide a number of significant challenges to social science research in the UK including the provision of robust statistics on equality-related demographics, small population equality subgroups and small area statistics.

4. In Northern Ireland, the availability of high quality local level data, (which can be reliably disaggregated by equality group) is central to the effective implementation of key pieces of equality legislation such as the Fair Employment and Treatment Order, and Section 75 of the Northern Ireland Act.

5. Surveys conducted using samples of the population, for example the Labour Force Survey, do not currently provide a robust alternative to Census based small area statistics in Northern Ireland, as small sample sizes often do not allow figures to be meaningfully disaggregated to consider equality characteristics at the local area level.

6. Administrative data in Northern Ireland would need to robustly record characteristics across a range of statutory equality (Section 75) grounds and be comprehensively cross-linked to provide any suitable alternative to the Census.

7. There are likely to be considerable cost implications of enhancing UK wide sample surveys (ie by increasing sample sizes) so as to provide robust small area estimates in Northern Ireland; and in comprehensively linking administrative records to form robust estimates of the population at the local area level.

Introduction

8. The Equality Commission for Northern Ireland (“the Commission”) is an independent public body established under the Northern Ireland Act 1998.

9. The Commission is responsible for implementing the legislation on fair employment, sex discrimination and equal pay, race relations, disability and age. The Commission’s remit also includes overseeing the statutory duties on public authorities to promote equality of opportunity and good relations under Section 75 of the Northern Ireland Act 1998 (Section 75) and the disability duties under the Disability Discrimination Act 1995.

10. The Commission, along with the Northern Ireland Human Rights Commission, has been designated under the United Nations Convention (UNCRPD) as the independent mechanism tasked with promoting, protecting and monitoring implementation of the UNCRPD in Northern Ireland.

11. The Commission welcomes the opportunity to provide evidence to the Science and Technology Select Committee Inquiry on the Census and social science, as we acknowledge that any changes to the Census methodology in England and Wales will have profound implications for the UK as a whole.

Questions Posed by the Committee

Question 1: How do social scientists use Census data?

12. The Census of the Population play a fundamental role in the provision of comprehensive and robust statistics essential for modern policy-making in Northern Ireland and is used extensively throughout the public, private and community and voluntary sectors. The detailed, reliable information provided on, for example, age distribution, spatial distribution, community background, national or ethnic origin etc. is crucially important for developing, targeting, delivering and evaluating policy and programmes and is pivotal in the planning and development of front-line service provision.

13. The Census of Population informs a range of equality relevant work in Northern Ireland – both via research undertaken by the Commission and in facilitating employers and service providers to fulfil their statutory obligations.

14. Northern Ireland has historically been at the forefront of developments in Equality legislation – including in the use of robust data to identify, monitor and challenge inequality. The Fair Employment and Treatment Order, and Section 75 of the Northern Ireland act are two examples of where high quality, local level data provided by the Census is central to their effective implementation.

15. Article 55 of the Fair Employment and Treatment (Northern Ireland) order 19981 requires employers to monitor the composition of their workforce and of those applying, appointed, leaving or being promoted (Article 52) and review their workforce composition at least once every three years (Article 55), “for the purposes of determining whether members of the Protestant and Roman Catholic communities are enjoying… fair participation” in their employment. This consideration involves the employer comparing the community composition of their workforce to the composition of the local labour supply. Robust, local level data is central to this comparison. The Commission considers that the Census of Population is the only available data source in Northern Ireland which provides such data at the local area level.

16. Recognising the importance of Equality of Opportunity and Good Relations between different groups in Northern Ireland, Section 75 of the Northern Ireland Act 19982 placed a statutory obligation on public authorities in carrying out their various functions relating to Northern Ireland, to have due regard to the need to promote equality of opportunity:

between persons of different religious belief, political opinion, racial group, age, marital status or sexual orientation;

between men and women generally;

between persons with a disability and persons without; and

between persons with dependants and persons without.

17. In addition, without prejudice to this obligation, Public Authorities are also required to have regard to the desirability of promoting good relations between persons of different religious belief, political opinion, and racial group.

18. In delivering these duties, public authorities use data to undertake audits of inequalities to identify key areas within their remit on which they might exert a positive influence. Public authorities also undertake screening and equality impact assessments as part of their policy development processes. Robust local area data is not only required to identify inequalities, but to track the subsequent impacts of any associated policies. The Census of Population is the only data source in Northern Ireland which can provide robust data, by equality ground, where it is required at the local area level.

19. Beyond statutory requirements, social science research using Census data plays a vital role in increasing the understanding of inequality and forms a significant basis for evidence based policy-making in Northern Ireland.

<?oasys [pf10p0] ?>20. Over the years, the Commission (and its predecessor bodies) have used the Census of Population as a data source for key analyses (for example - Equality Commission (2006) Census 2001: Limiting Long-term Illness in Northern Ireland) or as part of the evidence base to inform flagship publications (eg Equality Commission (2007) Key Inequalities in Northern Ireland).3

21. The Commissions have also supported academic work, using the Census, to consider a range of key issues over time - for example, with regards to fair employment:

Osborne, R D; Shuttleworth, I G; (eds) (2004) “Fair Employment in Northern Ireland: A Generation On”, Equality Commission / Blackstaff Press.

Cormack, R J; Gallagher, A M; Osborne, R D (1993); “Fair Enough? Religion and the 1991 Population Census”; Fair Employment Commission.

Gallagher, A M; Osborne, R D Cormack, R J; (1994); “Fair Shares? Employment, Unemployment and Economic Activity”; Fair Employment Commission.

22. The Commission also draws on the work of others, for example:

Shuttleworth, I; Lloyd, C; (2006) Are Northern Ireland’s Two Communities Dividing?: Evidence from the Census of Population 1971-2001, Shared Space, Northern Ireland Community Relations Council.

23. Often, a key defining characteristic in the decision to use the Census of Population is not only the precision that a census provides, but that sample surveys in Northern Ireland are often insufficient to allow a detailed consideration of patterns at the local (community) level. Census data has allowed the Commission to establish quantitative data for small population subgroups (for example, Irish Traveller, BME) and small geographical areas for which sample surveys cannot supply robust statistics.4

24. Census data has also played a crucial methodological role in equality-related Commission research. Census data has been used to benchmark and improve the quality of information from other data sources used by the Commission such as sample surveys. For example, census-based population estimates have been used to benchmark population-based quotas in surveys and weight data post-survey to ensure a representative sample of key equality groupings in Northern Ireland.5

25. The harmonisation of the Census across UK regions has allowed the Commission to establish cross-comparisons between equality groupings in Northern Ireland and other parts of the UK. It has also provided a reliable means of tracking change across social and economic indicators across time.

26. In summary, Census based research has been used to provide at least part of the evidence-base to allow the Commission to identify and describe key inequalities in Northern Ireland; to influence policy-making in Northern Ireland, to assist in the monitoring of fair participation in the labour market; and in the evaluation of legislation and policy in Northern Ireland. As noted above, robust local area data, disaggregated by equality grounds, is also central in allowing employers and public authorities to fulfil their legislative obligations.

Question 2: What impact will the ending of the Census have on social science research?

27. The ending of the Census will provide a number of significant challenges to social science research in the UK which have the potential to impact on Commission research given the small population in Northern Ireland. These challenges include the provision of robust demographics on equality grounds; the provision of robust data on small population equality subgroups and at small geographical levels; disaggregation of data on equality grounds, and benchmarking for sample surveys.

28. In general terms, population data on equality grounds plays a pivotal role in policy-making and is essential for monitoring policy implementation and outcomes. Policy without valid and reliable data is potentially costly and wasteful. The ending of the Census will potentially impact on the ability to obtain data on equality grounds as at present the Census is the most comprehensive means of capturing equality-related statistics.6

29. Sample surveys in Northern Ireland are often insufficient to allow a detailed consideration of patterns at the local (community) level. Sampling variability due to small sample size will impact on the ability to provide disaggregated data on equality grounds. In the context of population estimates in Northern Ireland this would mean that surveys would need to be larger and would require costly booster samples to ensure appropriate coverage and reliability.

30. The issue of sample size may have wider compliance implications, for example, Article 31 of the United Nations Convention requires that data on disability should be disaggregated to assess the implementation of the Convention and to identify and address barriers.7 In addition, the Regulation of the European Parliament and the Council on Population and Housing Censuses requires Member States to provide data at the level of Local Area Unit 2 (LAU2) equivalent to electoral ward level in Northern Ireland.8 Currently this information can only be fully captured at this geographical level by the Census.9

31. The small size of the total population in Northern Ireland adds a further layer of complexity. The Labour Force Survey (LFS) User Guide notes that “it is the nature of sampling variability that the smaller the group whose size is being estimated, or from which an estimate is being derived, the less precise that estimate is”.10 Due to the relatively small size of the Northern Ireland population, population estimates from surveys may be unreliable, in particular for small population subgroups (eg ethnic minorities) or small geographical areas as they may be subject to a high degree of sampling variability.

32. Concern with the quality and reliability of survey statistics in the absence of a Census have been raised by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA). NISRA has stated that sample surveys cannot provide robust statistics for small population subgroups, such as ethnic minority populations11 and at small geographical levels such as electoral ward.12 In presenting the business case for the 2011 Census, NISRA was of the view that “the Census was still the most authoritative source of information for a wide range of uses. It provides a snapshot of the country, with consistent and comparable information for small areas and sub-populations, and allows multivariate analyses that are not feasible using any other data source”.13

33. The ending of the Census may also create challenges in the provision of statistics for persons living in communal establishments (CE) that may receive limited coverage in sample surveys, such as the LFS. In 2009, the ONS stated that “the decennial Population Census is likely to remain the most reliable integrated source of CE population data”.14

34. Other challenges in relation to the use of administrative and/or survey data include the consistency and stability of concepts used in survey and administrative data. The quality and robustness of equality data for the population is contingent on the consistency of concepts used between surveys. For example, research15 has identified that the concept of disability used in a survey can impact on population estimates of disability. The challenge would be to ensure stability of concepts between surveys and administrative records used for the purpose of gathering census information and longitudinally across time.

35. In addition, inconsistencies between regional administrative records and surveys due to differences in the regional context have the potential to impact on the harmonisation of UK statistics and will need to be addressed. For example, the Northern Ireland version of the Family Resources Survey (FRS) and Labour Force Survey (LFS) use a different sample design and/or sampling frame than in Great Britain.16

36. There is a related danger that the ending of the Census may result in de-harmonisation of statistics between the UK regions and greater challenges in making robust inter-regional and/or whole UK comparisons. It is, therefore, crucial that continued close cooperation and joint working is carried out on Census policy between England and Wales and other UK regions to ensure harmonisation of any alternative arrangements.17

Question 3: What alternatives to the Census would provide population and socio-demographic data of equivalent or higher quality?

37. We offer a limited response to this question, in seeking to confine our response to areas within our core area of expertise.

38. We consider that the Census provides the most reliable source of population characteristics in the UK and is used to improve and quality assure information collected from other data sources such as sample surveys. Other sample surveys, for example the LFS, are comparatively less reliable, in that they provide estimates of population characteristics rather than exact measures.18

39. NISRA is of the view that “without the Census, surveys would be less reliable or would need to be larger and more costly” to ensure robustness.19 Given the issues with sampling variability noted earlier, this may present challenges in relation to the small population of Northern Ireland.

40. In light of the particular challenges for Northern Ireland the Commission is of the view that should the UK government decide to discontinue the decennial Census the Northern Ireland Executive should be strongly encouraged to introduce a Northern Ireland Census. The Commission recognises that the issue of scale and cost of a Northern Ireland Census would be an important consideration, however, Ireland which has little more than double the population of Northern Ireland has a quinquennial census.

Question 4: What other existing sources of population and socio-demographic data could be improved upon?

41. Surveys conducted using samples of the population, for example the Labour Force Survey, do not currently provide a robust alternative to Census based small area statistics in Northern Ireland, as small sample sizes and associated sample error often does not allow these estimated figures to be disaggregated to consider equality characteristics at the local area level. In the context of robust population estimates in Northern Ireland this would mean that surveys would need to be larger and would require costly booster samples to ensure appropriate coverage and reliability.

42. Administrative records in Northern Ireland do not always collect information on all equality-grounds covered by Section 75. Where data is collected this may be confined to a limited number of grounds (eg age or gender) or data may be incomplete. This is because administrative records are by design focussed on their administrative purpose and thus may not meet wider user needs or may only provide a proxy for the underlying population.20

43. To present an alternative to the Census, administrative records, registers would need to be comprehensively linked and cross-tabulated21 and capable of tracking change on a longitudinal basis. This may require a comprehensive population register and system of linkage, such as that used in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden,22 and such data linkages may require legislative change.23 Research in Northern Ireland has however indicated that many such records are subject to gaps in the range or quality of data.24 It is also likely that none of these would at present be able to provide the full range of equality demographics required by the Commission and provided for by the Census.

44. NISRA has indicated that the Census provides the basis for equality monitoring by government, in particular “census information on age, sex, ethnicity, religion and disability help to identify the extent and nature of disadvantage and to measure the success of equal opportunities policies”.25

45. The Commission is of the view that should an alternative to the Census include administrative records, this must include the recording of equality demographics on Section 75 grounds. This level of information is not only useful to the work of the Commission and equality-related social science research in general, but would be useful to public authorities in fulfilling their statutory duties under Section 75 of the Northern Ireland Act 1998.

46. The Commission acknowledges that administrative data cannot always be completely accessible due to issues of privacy and confidentiality. If administrative records were used to gather Census data the issue of data access for research whilst maintaining the confidentiality of individual records would need to be addressed.

47. Any decision to move away from a Census of Population must also recognise that there are likely to be considerable cost implications of enhancing UK wide sample surveys (ie by increasing sample sizes) so as to provide robust small area estimates in Northern Ireland; and in comprehensively linking administrative records to form robust estimates of the population at the local area level.

The Equality Commission for Northern Ireland

December 2011