Science and Technology CommitteeWritten evidence submitted by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (Census 38)
Declaration of Interests: None
The Joseph Rowntree Foundation is an endowed charity that funds a large, UK-wide research and development programme. We seek to understand the root causes of social problems, to identify ways of overcoming them, and to show how social needs can be met in practice.
Our purpose is to influence policy and practice by searching for evidence and demonstrating solutions to improve:
the circumstances of people experiencing poverty and disadvantage;
the quality of their homes and communities; and
the nature of the services and support that foster their well-being and citizenship.
We have no political affiliations and work in partnership with all sectors – private, public and voluntary. We aim to present evidence in a balanced, unbiased way and to stimulate debate on current and emerging issues.
In all our work, we look to reflect the diversity of the UK population, learn from others and operate in a sustainable way - socially, environmentally and economically - finding practical and realistic solutions and focusing on the needs of disadvantaged people. Through our housing, community and care services, we aim to achieve the highest professional standards.
Across our research programmes we have used information collected in the UK Census to support various projects and these incidences will be highlighted in this submission. It is our intention to answer the four questions posed as requested and to make the case that the Census is an invaluable data source in the field of social science.
1. How do social scientists use census data?
1.1 As the census attempts to get information from every person in the UK it is the only survey which provides a detailed picture of the entire population. It is unique because it covers everyone at the same time and asks the same core questions everywhere. This makes it possible to compare different parts of the UK, Local Authorities and even smaller area statistics on many of the range of variables collected.
Although this response will focus on the social research value of the Census, it is important to note the key role it plays in providing and developing public services. The information the census provides allows central and local government, health authorities and many other organisations to target their resources more effectively and to plan housing, education, health and transport services for years to come.
1.2 Census data is used by social scientists to form the backbone and in many cases the core of many research projects. Aside from the obvious national representation (despite undercounts for certain types of people such as homeless people and the travelling community) the census data enriches many other datasets by linking with them and therefore really enhancing the analysis possibilities. For example, the ONS Longitudinal Study (LS) is a data set comprising linked census and event records for 1% of the population of England and Wales (about 500,000 people at any one census). It was set up in 1974 to address problems with the adequacy of occupational mortality data, and the lack of longitudinal fertility data, but since then it has been used to address a wide range of other research questions. The LS is invaluable for longitudinal and cross-sectional studies of census and events data as it contains all information from census returns since 1971 (including data on occupation, economic activity, housing, ethnicity, age, sex, marital status and education), administrative events data (on births & deaths, fertility, mortality, migration and cancer registrations) and also geographic data. The linking of the data to the LS allows researchers to look in detail at so many things which would not have been possible otherwise such as; survival rates of cancer in relation to socio-demographic characteristics of the population; and birth outcomes of second generation migrants.
1.3 Secondary data analysis from census data saves time that would otherwise be spent collecting data and, particularly in the case of quantitative data, provides larger and higher-quality databases than any individual researcher or research team could collect on their own. This coverage and robustness would not be possible to carry out or maintain by a small research team. In addition, analysts of social and economic change consider secondary data essential, since it is impossible to conduct a new survey that can adequately capture past change and/or developments.
1.4 Here at JRF we have used information from the Census to support a wide range of projects and programmes, some of which are summarised below:
JRF recently commissioned two projects as part of its “A Better Life” programme, to stimulate and inform thinking on alternative approaches to a better life for older people with high support needs. We supported the projects as part of our programme of research and development projects which we hope will be of value to policy-makers, practitioners and service users. Key information from the Census used in this project includes the question asking respondents whether they have “any long-term illness, health problem or disability which limits activities or work”. Media coverage from this project includes a round up about how to empower older people on Publicnet.co.uk (October 2010) and an article in The Guardian (October 2010) – “A better life for older people” discussing this research printed on Older People’s Day.
The other project as part of the Better Life Programme resulted in a research paper entitled, “Demographic issues, projections and trends: Older people with high support needs in the UK” (October 2010). The population aged 85 and over is the fastest growing age group in the entire UK population. More older people than ever before live alone and this has implications for residential arrangements and care among this group. This paper provides an overview of demographic issues (from the Census), projections and trends in relation to older people with high support needs in the UK and recommends continued investment in data sources to further understanding of health, disability, economic and social well-being in old age.
The Census Programme run by the Place team at JRF produced a number of influential reports based on information collected in the Census. A study on “Population turnover and area deprivation “(Bailey and Livingston, 2007) draws on detailed analysis of flows of population for neighbourhoods in England and Scotland, based on 2001 Census data. It examines whether deprived neighbourhoods have less stable populations, whether they are poorly connected to the wider housing market through movements of people in and out, and whether they are losing better qualified individuals through net movement out of the area. Using data from the 2001 Census, this study looks at inward and outward flows of population for small areas or neighbourhoods in England and Scotland. The Census provides a unique opportunity to study these population dynamics, as it captures information on all people who moved in the year before the Census. It therefore provides data on inward and outward movement of population and hence net flows of people for every neighbourhood in the country.
Changes in communal provision for adult social care: 1991-2001(Banks, Haynes, Balloch and Hill, 2006) examined shifting trends in care home provision for adults between 1991 and 2001. The report analyses detailed census data from 1991 and 2001 to reveal general trends in adult social care provision. A number of variables are used to understand these trends, including levels of local authority funded places, health and poverty indicators, property prices and provision of other types of social care. This project explored changes in residential and nursing care provision between 1991 and 2001. Using Census data, the researchers were able to look at general trends and also at relative changes in the age, gender and ethnicity of care home residents.
A particularly influential project that attracted a lot of media attention, both nationally and internationally was on “Migration and social mobility: the life chances of Britain’s minority ethnic communities” (Platt, 2005). This project investigated the impact of class background and ethnicity on class position. Drawing on data from the ONS Longitudinal Study (LS), the report traces patterns of intergenerational social mobility for children from different ethnic groups growing up in England and Wales. For the first time, this report measured their progress and class position compared with those of their parents. It provided a unique insight into the differences between the class positions of parents who had migrated to Britain and their children raised in the country. Taking advantage of the new question on religion in the 2001 Census, the report also asks whether patterns of intergenerational mobility vary by religious affiliation and whether religion can add to our understanding of ethnic group differences.
The relationship between poverty, affluence and area was also analysed using 2001 Census data by Wheeler, Shaw, Richard Mitchell and Dorling. The report used Census data to map the nature and extent of geographical and social inequality in the UK at the beginning of the twenty-first century. Findings included higher numbers of practising, qualified medical practitioners living and working in areas where rates of illness are lower; an “inverse education law” in which areas with the highest proportions of young people with no qualifications tend to have the fewest teachers; well-qualified people living outside London and the South East who accept lower status jobs simply because of where they live; households which might be said to have more cars than they need, while others don’t have any at all. The two groups of households tend to live in very different places.
JRF also publishes annual publications that use information from the Census most notably, Monitoring Poverty and Social Exclusion (JRF’s flagship publication) Monitoring Poverty and Social Exclusion is an essential resource for policy-makers and others wanting to take stock of what is happening and understand the challenges ahead. It highlights a number of issues that need to be addressed through government policy: in-work poverty, the number of children/young adults with few/no qualifications, young adult unemployment, health inequalities and low-income households' lack of access to essential services.
2. What impact will the ending of the census have on social science research?
2.1 Aside from the rich and robust research that is possible from the census a fundamental concern about ending the census is its impact on overall social science data quality. Data quality in general will be greatly reduced. For many of the most valued and robust social surveys in the UK the census is used to select postcode sectors for the main sample and (in the case of surveys such as Understanding Society) the ethnic boost sample. Census information is therefore integral to the design of these surveys. Virtually all sampling in the UK is based to some extent on census information, as it enables researchers to pick a representative set of areas. Consequently, if the census was cut, it would reduce the quality of all social (and commercial) survey designs.
2.2 As well as the value of linked events data to the Census in the ONS Longitudinal Study (LS), it is also used to carry out invaluable longitudinal research on themes such as mortality, fertility, cancer survival, migration, infant mortality, deprivation, social mobility, ethnicity and ageing. It is the only study that has a complete set of census records for individuals, linked between successive censuses, together with data for various events. Thus, the LS represents a continuous sample of the population of England and Wales, rather than a sample taken at one time point only. It now includes records for over 950,000 study members. Fresh LS members enter the study through birth and immigration and existing members leave through death and emigration. In addition to the census records, the individual LS records contain data for events such as deaths, births to sample mothers, emigrations and cancer registrations. This rich data source based on the census has allowed us to undertake prospective analyses of census and event data. For example: studies of associations between employment status and mortality, between economic status and cancer registrations, and between socio-economic factors and fertility; survival analysis of mortality by area deprivation: prospective analysis of successive census data. For example: analysis of patterns of retirement migration, studies of the effects of divorce and remarriage on housing tenure, comparison of changes in education, employment and migration between the 1970s and 1980s.
2.3 The 2011 Census will be linked into the LS study. The main purpose of this is to link a fifth tranche of census data, laying the foundation for the linkage of a fifth decade of life events data. Information gathered while linking the data will feed into the 2011 Census quality assurance process, identifying areas of possible undercount or overcount. If the 2011 Census is the last of its kind, this clearly has severe implications for the LS as the rich social research that has been carried out using this data source will no longer be possible after 2011.
2.4 Another impact will be the loss of the small area statistics and indeed microdata that enables analyses to be undertaken at the Local Authority level. This level of geography enables mapping, local level tabulations, and even multivariate analyses using local area level variables. These data differ from aggregate outputs such as the Census Area Statistics in that users can look at individual level characteristics within areas and define area level measures of their own choice. Users can define and use subsets, and can create new classifications by grouping existing classifications or combining information from more than one socio-economic characteristic. Microdata from the UK census are a unique source for studying residential mobility, and particularly for providing an insight into ethnic differences in internal migration and the processes of ethnic residential integration. The size of the Sample of Anonymised Records (SARs) and the Controlled Access Microdata Sample (CAMs) enable the migration patterns for relatively small population subgroups, such as minority ethnic groups, to be examined; and to be examined alongside other characteristics of individuals and neighbourhoods.
3. What alternatives to the census would provide population and socio-demographic data of equivalent or higher quality?
3.1 There are various potential alternatives to the census in providing population and socio-demographic data although each source has its strengths and weaknesses. The new UK Household Longitudinal Study, Understanding Society (USoc), offers the possibility of a much more fine-grained analysis of UK society, with a target sample size of 40,000 households and 100,000 individuals, bigger than any other comparable longitudinal study. The study design includes a significant sample boost for key ethnic minority groups and aims to collect biomedical measures and samples to enable new research on the social determinants and impacts of health in a household context. This will complement data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and from national birth cohort studies. The main problem however with USoc as an alternative to the census, is that it’s longitudinal, so over time because of wave on wave attrition (where the number of respondents decreases over time due to loss to follow up, emigrating or death) it becomes less representative of the population. Although it is large and robust, when you get down to small area statistics which census produces, then USoc is not appropriate.
3.2 There are a number of surveys in the UK that allow detailed analyses at a national level to be carried out due to advanced techniques in weighting the data so that population projections can be made. These surveys include:
The Labour Force Survey (LFS).
The Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE).
Households Below Average Income (HBAI).
The Annual Population Survey (APS).
The Family Expenditure Survey (FES).
Health Survey for England (HSE).
Families and Children Study (FCS).
Growing Up in Scotland (GUS).
Millennium Cohort Study (MCS).
Although incredibly rich and invaluable in many instances it is not possible to produce small area statistics from these datasets by many indicators due to the size of the samples and confidentiality issues. Another problem for national level analysis is that of missing data where most often the information that is missing is from the key population that we are most interested in. It is of course noted that the detail and information collected in these surveys are invaluable in their own right and that they are all hugely rich data sources.
3.3 The LFS Annual Local Area Data Series, for example, and the Unitary Authority/Local Authority (UA/LA series) have been withdrawn on instruction from ONS, due to confidentiality issues. Although LFS databases released for analysis to social science researchers by outside bodies have always been anonymised to ensure that users could not identify any respondent with the information given, advances in technology and software has made it easier to link survey records to either other survey files or other administrative or commercial databases. “Although the risk for most respondents is very small, there remains a risk of identification for people with unusual combinations of personal circumstances. Thus the release outside the central government statistical services of social survey databases with small area identifiers, alongside a national database with detailed coding, has now been ceased” (ONS).
4. What other sources of population and socio-demographic data could be improved upon?
4.1 A key survey that it may be possible to build on would be The Annual Population Survey (APS). APS represents a major survey which comprises key variables from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), all the LFS boosts and the APS boost. The APS is now able to provide survey data that can produce reliable estimates at local authority level. Key topics in the survey include education, employment, health and ethnicity. There must be potential to build on this survey improving the variety of information captured. The APS combines results from five different sources: the Labour Force Survey (LFS); the English Local Labour Force Survey (LLFS); the Welsh Labour Force Survey (WLFS) and the Scottish Labour Force Survey (SLFS). The APS aims to provide enhanced annual data for England, covering a target sample of at least 510 economically active persons for each Unitary Authority (UA)/Local Authority District (LAD) and at least 450 economically active persons in each Greater London Borough. In combination with local LFS boost samples from Wales (WLFS) and Scotland (SLFS) the survey provides estimates for a range of indicators down to Local Education Authority (LEA) level across the UK.
The position of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation is that the Census should certainly stay due to the evidence collected and summarised above. It will always be the gold standard of data collection and social science research would not be as robust without it in terms of data quality, coverage and analysis. Practical and effective policy interventions based on evidence which is not as robust may be less effective. The analysis that is possible using the actual Census datasets and those combined and linked to others opens up realms of additional research opportunities that would no longer be possible if the Census was no longer carried out.
Joseph Rowntree Foundation
30 November 2011