Transport Committee - Plug-in vehicles, plugged in policy?Written evidence from the Institution of Mechanical Engineers
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Summary
Current battery technology is too expensive to provide an attractive equivalent energy store for cars. Despite improvements in electric vehicle costs the gap between electric vehicles and fossil fuel vehicles is not narrowing as they are continuously become more efficient and cleaner—electric vehicles are not affordable over the long term.
At the moment electricity is primarily produced from fossil fuel sources. Until there is a major shift to low-carbon electricity, there is only a limited environmental benefit of using electricity for transport.
Implementation of LCA methodology would allow industry to be technology neutral by ensuring no bias towards petrol, diesel, electric, synthetic, biofuels or fuelcells, encouraging a greater range of methods and innovation all focussing on reducing the carbon emissions. Improvements to conventional powertrains continue with developments to the aerodynamics of the vehicles, engine downsizing, vehicle weight reduction, implementing automatic start-stop features, improving the thermal management systems and reduce the rolling resistance of tyres.
The contribution of plug-in vehicles to decarbonising transport
1. Plug-in vehicles have a potential role in decarbonising transport but there are two major obstacles to overcome—affordability and sourcing the electricity.
Battery Technology
2. Current battery technology is too expensive to provide an attractive equivalent energy store for cars, compared with the cost of fossil fuels. Developments in fossil fuel mean that their efficiency and cleanliness are improving, so despite improvements in electric vehicle costs the gap between electric vehicles and fossil fuel vehicles is not narrowing and electric vehicles are not affordable over the long term. Currently the price for battery cells used in electric vehicles has stabilised at $300/kWh.
Electricity
3. At the moment electricity is primarily produced from fossil fuel sources. Until there is a major shift to low-carbon electricity, there is only a limited environmental benefit of using electricity for transport. Electric cars using fossil fuel power station electricity produce about 76gm/km CO2. There is still the need to address how plug-in vehicles fit with the total energy demand that will be created. Questions need to be addressed in terms of supplying demand as we decarbonise the national grid. There is also a lack of public support for nuclear, onshore wind or solar panel farms. Electric vehicles and “reducing carbon” implies increasing renewable electricity, or will this demand for electricity result in higher demand for nuclear power?
Uptake of plug-in vehicles and how this can be improved
4. Uptake of plug-in vehicles is extremely small accounting for less than 0.01% of current vehicle sales and there is little growth in the uptake forecast to 2020. This is made worse by the current economy. The Institution of Mechanical Engineers believes that this will not improve until plug-in vehicles become affordable. Plug-in vehicles are currently around twice the cost of fossil fuelled cars, with limited savings of reduced fuel costs. Fossil fuels are still comparably cheap over a car’s life compared with the capital costs of electric vehicles (including the £5,000 government subsidy). There are concerns about reductions in electricity storage capacity over the lifetime of the vehicle as the battery depletes.
5. With the increasing uptake of electric vehicles leading to an increased energy demand the Institution of Mechanical Engineers believes that this work has to be coupled with programmes to develop more low-carbon energy, better energy storage systems, a smarter grid and encouraging intelligent travel.
The effectiveness of the Plugged-In Places scheme
6. Plugged-in places are a necessary first step in the “chicken and egg” cycle to encourage electric car adoption. Without a recharging infrastructure consumers will be reluctant to purchase electric vehicles, but the network will need to be in place before usage starts to increase. Government (OLEV) funding has been used to integrate these charging facilities into the public infrastructure. Take up by consumers is currently very low and question two makes suggestions to improve the uptake.
The role of plug-in vehicles alongside other technologies to reduce carbon emissions from road transport
7. With 90% of all transport emissions emanating from road transport plug-in vehicles will play a role in reducing carbon emissions. They are not the only solution or best mode for all consumers. There needs to be multiple technological solutions to reduce carbon emissions in transport and Government policy should not try to pick winners. The best solutions will be the most cost effective solutions for consumers.
Life cycle analysis (LCA)
8. Life cycle emissions need to be taken into account when evaluating the net carbon benefit. Provided decarbonisation of the electricity grid proceeds in step with plug-in vehicles deployment, carbon emissions will be reduced. The net impact may be lower than “well-to-wheels” analysis suggests.
9. Plug-in vehicles must be competitive across the board compared with conventional vehicles or their embedded CO2 could lead to net increased emissions. Calculating the average of a fleet will not capture this.
10. Implementation of LCA methodology would allow industry to be technology neutral. It would ensure no bias towards petrol, diesel, electric, synthetic, biofuels or fuel cells to encourage a greater range of methods and innovation all focussing on reducing the carbon emissions.
Powertrain development
11. Improvements to conventional powertrains (internal combustion engines) are required now. Improvements that can be made include developments to the aerodynamics of the vehicles, engine downsizing, vehicle weight reduction, implementing automatic start-stop features, improving the thermal management systems and reduce the rolling resistance of tyres.
Driving style
12. By changing our driving style we can reduce the amount of energy consumed, resulting in fewer emissions being produced.
Action taken by other countries to encourage the uptake of plug-in vehicles
13. France has a major advantage over the UK with a high proportion of electricity being sourced from nuclear power (low carbon) and domestic manufacturers investing in electric vehicle production.
14. The US has promoted plug-in vehicles but uptake remains very low due to low fossil fuel prices and poor financial appeal to consumers. Lack of commitment by US Government is hindering uptake.
15. Sweden and Brazil have been much more successful in promoting biofuel through active Government co-operation with manufacturers to deliver a supportive environment for low carbon solutions.
16. New Zealand has taken a different approach by carrying out studies that address Active Mode Accessibility (AMA). This is a method by which transport activity has been modelled to address where there is a greater resilience to fuel price shocks and constraints. AMA looks at both the time that a journey takes as well as the distance travelled looking at networks for demand for travel of selected such as: food shopping, retail, social, work commuting and travelling to education facilities.
Plug-in electric vehicles will make a small contribution to reducing carbon emissions until they are cheap and sell in significant quantity. To make plug-in vehicles successful we need to ensure that there is affordable technology that consumers will buy.
April 2012