Aviation Strategy

Written evidence from Mr Ken McDonald (AS 02)

I have submitted my comments to the Department for Transport on its Draft Aviation Policy Framework (DAPF).  I would like you also to consider my concerns regarding the context in which long term aviation policy is being discussed.

 

The first sentence of the executive summary of the DAPF is "The Government’s primary objective is to achieve long term economic growth". I submit that this is an unsound premise. Sustained global economic growth was possible when the Earth’s human population was relatively few in number and the demand per capita placed on Earth’s finite resources was modest, but the industrial age and the dramatic and accelerating growth over the last two centuries in both world population and average personal consumption has brought us to an unsustainable position. Global consumption is already greater than the Earth’s capacity to renew its resources, so further global economic growth is not sustainable.

The longer that global economic growth is maintained, the greater will be the resource deficit that has to be faced in due course. The longer we wait before admitting the inevitable, the bigger will be the bubble that bursts. It is like borrowing further and further beyond one’s means until there is no option but to default on the debt. Yet, there will be no banker to default on when we do come to terms with being unable to feed and warm all the human race because the Planet has insufficient resources.

The bubble may not burst within the life of this Government, but this Government risks being judged by the next generation as turning its back on UN General Assembly Resolution 42/187 that defined sustainable development as "meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" . If the Government is consciously forecasting long term global economic growth, despite the "One Planet" theory, then its rationale should be explained. If, on the other hand, it is this Government’s belief that the UK can continue to grow, against the inevitable tide of global reality, then that rationale should be explained.

If it is accepted that economic growth is dependent on the ongoing renewal of resources, then it is only a matter of time before the inevitable turnaround from growth to contraction arrives. When this general tipping point will be reached (or perhaps, when it was reached) is a matter of conjecture, but it is certainly unsound to expect economic growth to continue long term, either globally or nationally.

Within the broad picture of sustainable economic growth and availability of finite resources, aviation is at the leading edge of one of the dilemmas of finite resource, being heavily dependent on fossil fuel. The use of fossil fuel has increased dramatically over the last century and the ongoing high level of usage relative to the Earth’s diminishing and non-renewable resources indicates that availability of this particular finite resource is likely to start to decline in the foreseeable future. Given that fossil fuel has many other uses, the presumption that some degree of long term priority or parity of supply should be afforded to aviation is highly questionable, especially the majority of aviation which is leisure orientated.

The opening paragraph of the Executive Summary goes on to say "The aviation sector is a major contributor to the economy and we support its growth within a framework which maintains a balance between the benefits of aviation and its costs, particularly climate change and noise". This introduces a key factor, climate change, which we cannot afford to be treated as subsidiary to the search for the holy grail of economic growth.

The second bullet of para 1.4 refers to the need for proportionate action to be taken at the international level, yet the aviation industry continues to receive the unfair and unjustified protection of the 1944 Chicago Convention and continues to benefit, to the detriment of other sectors, by the success of ICAO in retaining that protection. Until that exceptional degree of protectionism is unwound, the aviation industry will continue to operate with the uncertainty that the bubble in which it operates may one day burst.

 

Thus it is against the background of the rather distorted and unreal world, in which the Government expects perpetual economic growth and aviation operates under a cloak of outdated and outlandish protection, that we are being asked to comment on the UK’s aviation policy. These factors are so fundamental (one might say the two elephants in the room are so huge) that I felt unable to offer further meaningful comment on the DAPF.

I hope the Transport Committee may be able to ensure that these fundamental issues are addressed before the next stage of the Government's aviation consultation, thereby providing a clear context against which I and others may comment on the Government's proposals.

20 September 2012