Aviation Strategy

Written evidence from Peter McManners (AS 06)

1.0 Summary

1.1 The outcome of the current debate about airport capacity will have significant consequences for infrastructure investment and the position of UK within the European transport network. This is an industry with long time horizons such that decisions taken now will have an impact well beyond 2020. Over this timescale, it is likely that there will be substantive action to deal with emissions from aviation as part of sustainable policy. Therefore, pragmatic policy should factor in sustainable policy requirements, whilst remaining sensitive to short-term considerations. Through the lens of sustainability, when all factors are considered, the preferred option is to commit now to a new airport in the Thames estuary, concurrent with taking a leading role in renegotiating the international aviation policy framework. Such a balanced approach will deliver a resilient strategy for UK airport capacity planning.

2.0 Introduction

2.1 Current international aviation policy is inherently unsustainable, locked into a policy framework established at the end of the Second World War. Today’s priorities are different, with concern over climate change growing and sustainability rising up the policy agenda. Aviation policy is not adapting fast enough to deal with this emerging challenge. Effective strategy for aviation should look ahead to the future when sustainable policy holds sway. A simply extrapolation of the status quo would not be sufficient and would lead to policy that would not endure for more than a few years.

2.2 Deciding strategy for aviation capacity, without further delay, is important because decisions taken now will take many years before the required infrastructure is delivered. The decision is particularly important because aviation is a global industry with long time horizons. Policy enacted now will have consequences up to the middle of this century. Getting it wrong could set the UK back in this important area but getting it right could put the UK in a leading position as the parameters of aviation in the 21st century start to take shape.

2.3 The context of the current debate makes it difficult to reach the best and most appropriate decision because discussion is highly polarised between environmentalists and other stakeholders; and the loudest voices are from those with a vested interest in maintaining the status quo. Incisive balanced analysis is in short supply, but using the overarching policy of sustainability the debate can be shifted onto a firmer basis. There can be little doubt that the influence of sustainability on policy will grow and the current debate over airport capacity should mesh with this bigger picture.

2.4 The route to formulating effective strategy for aviation is to focus on getting it right over the long-term before considering how to address immediate and near-term challenges. In the years ahead, it is expected that the consequences of climate change will become a clear and present danger to society. The strategy for airport capacity should factor in the resulting switch in people’s attitudes in favour of low-carbon aviation solutions.

3.0 Objectives of Aviation Policy

3.1 A primary objective of UK aviation policy should be to ensure that it is future-proof to the unfolding policy of sustainability and the expected shift in public attitudes towards effective emission control measures.

3.2 The reason to elevate the environmental impact of aviation from secondary to a primary issue is that the required response is deep-rooted change and a complete rethink of some aspects of aviation policy. Unless these changes are factored in at the foundation of policy, the whole strategic framework could collapse when public attitudes start to support sustainability measures. It would be better to craft a resilient strategic framework that can bend with the coming changes providing a clear and consistent policy framework to be able to make the required investment in a timely manner.

3.3 There are a number of short-term concerns, which will require a response, but these should not be allowed to drive strategy. For example, airport capacity is needed during the current period of growth in conventional aviation but this bulge in demand is unlikely to endure. Another example is policy for Air Passenger Duty (APD). One reason for this tax is as a proxy for a tax on aviation fuel which is currently tax-free through outdated international agreements. It is becoming widely accepted that tax on aviation fuel will be the most effective lever to drive change and facilitate a transformation of the industry. But resistance to this sensible policy is stiff, particularly from the United States. The government should plan for, and help to orchestrate, the change in international agreements to be able to tax aviation fuel, not assume that high levels of APD will continue to be the UK solution.

3.4 Aviation should be an integral part of the overall transport strategy leading to consequences beyond aviation. For example, short-haul capacity is likely to be squeezed particularly hard to deliver emissions reductions as there is an alternative in the rail network. Aviation capacity policy has therefore a corresponding strategic objective to improve and expand capacity on the rail network. Again, timescales are long and strategy is required without delay. Improving and decarbonising the rail network will take decades to complete but is required to support contraction in short-haul flying capacity.

4.0 Best use of Existing Capacity

4.1 The current regulations for airport design are highly prescriptive to ensure all international airports can serve the current aircraft fleet. The next generation of air vehicles will require a different ground infrastructure. Which comes first, the new air vehicles or the new ground handling facilities? The UK aviation strategy has to be able to handle this dilemma. Investment in increased capacity for conventional aviation is likely to be wasted unless part of a coordinated sustainable infrastructure plan.

4.2 Strategic capacity planning requires an understanding of the likely shape and scale of aviation beyond 2020. It will depend on how quickly the world responds to concerns over the role of emissions from aircraft in climate change, but it is safe to assume that curtailing emissions will be required. Attitudes could change fast as climate change starts to have real impact on people’s lives. The infrastructure needs inbuilt flexibility to support change as a wave of innovation engulfs the industry.

4.3 The broad outline of the changing passenger and freight demands can be ascertained (McManners 2012). Conventional fast jet aircraft will continue to be required using aircraft that are an evolution from current models. The newest models now coming off the production lines – such as the Boeing 787 Dreamliner and the Airbus A380 – are expected to remain flying for the next two or three decades but older aircraft will be retired early, as fast flying becomes much less affordable. Fast jets will be for people under time pressure such as senior government officials and business leaders. As ordinary people are priced off conventional aircraft the demand for cheaper alternatives will support the development and deployment of a new generation of relatively slow air vehicles where the aero engineers trade speed for fuel efficiency, and passengers trade time for money. Despite a short-term backlash against high tickets prices for jet travel, the passenger experience in this new breed of relatively slow air vehicle will be much improved and become embedded as the low-cost air transport method for passengers and air freight.

4.4 This transformation in aviation could take less than one decade from the point when world leaders decided to act. Strategic airport capacity planning in the UK should accommodate the new parameters whilst continuing to be able to support the industry as it is now. The initial conclusion is that existing conventional airport capacity should be squeezed to accommodate expansion in the short-term with minimum additional investment whilst making plans to invest in the new future transport infrastructure.

5.0 Constraints

5.1 Question: Are the Government’s proposals to manage the impact of aviation on the local environment sufficient, particularly in terms of reducing the impact of noise on local residents?

5.2 Answer: Noise reduction is an important issue from a local environmental perspective but is also a potential distraction from the bigger picture. Focussing too much on noise limits could hold back development of more efficient engines, such as open-rotor jet engines. Noise limits should be set that allow the new generation of aircraft to be built with an uncompromising commitment to low emissions without excessively onerous noise reduction targets. Some flexibility with regard to noise limits should be allowed if this leads to significant efficiency improvements.

5.3 Question: Will the Government’s proposals help reduce carbon emissions and manage the impact of aviation on climate change? How can aviation be made more sustainable?

5.4 Answer: This is the key question at the heart of aviation strategy. The simple answer is that current policy will not be effective in reducing carbon emissions, but the government is in a difficult position. For the UK to take unilateral action and set appropriate, effective policy for aviation emissions would impact the UK economy disproportionately hard compared with other countries. It is proposed that the UK government deploys a two-pronged approach. The first is to understand sustainable policy for aviation and formulate appropriate policy aspirations. This will then require a long-game to push for the necessary changes in the international agreements that shape aviation. Meanwhile, the second prong is to craft pragmatic policy that delivers sufficient support for UK aviation whilst the global industry remains stuck in the current policy stalemate.

5.5 Question: What is the relationship between the Government’s strategy and EU aviation policies?

5.6 Answer: The EU has made a well-intentioned move – which it believes will contribute to sustainable aviation policy – by including aviation in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). This has caused an international outcry, with the United States and China particularly incensed by unilateral EU policy impacting upon their flights. In reality, this is a very small step which will not lead to a more sustainable aviation industry and could even make it harder to broker sustainable aviation policy through raising the prospect that carbon trading could the source of a solution, which in aviation is unlikely (Lawson 2012).

5.7 The UK government should, of course, continue to work with the EU over aviation policy but there is a danger that policy, seen from outside Europe as primarily environmental, will be blocked in international negotiations. Environmental concerns are the prime reason to drive change but the better tactics might be to focus on transforming the industry to serve passengers better, support a sustainable economy and curtail carbon emissions. The UK is well placed to make a robust balanced case for sustainable aviation building on its heritage as a pioneer in aviation, using its close links with the United States and utilising its expertise in the technology and knowhow required.

6.0 A new Airport for London

6.1 Extrapolation of historic trends indicates that conventional aviation will continue to expand and that the South East of England will run out of airport capacity. Options being considered include a third runway at Heathrow or a new airport in the Thames Estuary. The vision of increasing demand for conventional aviation arises from a blinkered perspective that the status quo will remain unchanged. Examination of aviation through the broad lens of balanced sustainable policy delivers a vision with a much sharper focus. This perspective points towards the counter-intuitive conclusion that a new airport is the preferred long-term solution.

6.2 The argument in favour of a new airport is that it supports resilient policy that is flexible to accommodate future changes in the industry. The rough outline of 21st century aviation includes a much reduced fast jet capability (relative to now) supplemented by the development and deployment of a new type of air vehicle that is highly efficient and slow (relative to current jet airliners). These are likely to be hybrid air vehicles with the characteristics of both a plane and an airship, but the exact design will not emerge until policy changes and make such vehicles commercially viable. The ground handling requirements between these two classes of ‘aircraft’ will be different.

6.3 The UK will have a choice, to build new facilities for the new air vehicles or reconfigure existing airports to accommodate them. One option is to design London’s new airport to be the first major airport in Europe designed to the new parameters. The early stages of the planning approval process could commence without making the final decision whether to build for conventional aircraft or for new air vehicles. The decision in principle could be taken now, to proceed with a new airport, whilst holding back finalising the design until there is more clarity with regard to international aviation policy.

6.4 Attitudes to aviation policy could reach a tipping point where policy change is rapid (McManners 2012: 158-160) but it is also possible that the transition to sustainable aviation remains stalled. In such circumstances, the new airport in the Thames estuary could be built for conventional fast jets, which would have the convenience that many flights would approach and take off over water. When completed, Heathrow would become available for redevelopment, perhaps as a hub for the new generation of air vehicles.

6.5 Committing now to a new airport for London, but remaining flexible over the detailed design, is proposed as resilient and sustainable aviation capacity planning strategy.

7.0 Cost and benefit analysis

7.1 Many countries in Europe have invested substantially over the years in new hub airports. The UK has been saddled with Heathrow which has evolved in piecemeal fashion without the security of a long-term strategic plan. This has been a fortunate oversight because the UK now has the option to ensure that London’s airports conform to the needs of 21st century aviation – when that becomes clear. The future-proof and cost-effective strategy is to push for sustainable aviation policy on the world stage whilst designing the appropriate infrastructure for London. This would not only give the UK world-class international transport facilities but would also provide UK’s innovative aerospace sector with a launch pad to be at the forefront of a renaissance in the aviation industry. I believe that this is a golden opportunity for UK plc but will require bold action by the government to set the appropriate strategy.

8.0 Conclusion

8.1 Airport capacity planning for the UK cannot take place in a vacuum. As major investment in new infrastructure is contemplated, there should be an overall vision for transport and aviation that reaches out to mid-century. Over this timeframe, concerns over climate change will have a major impact. The government should commit now to a new airport in the Thames estuary concurrent with leading the international dialogue over sustainable international aviation policy. The UK will then be poised to reap the benefits, with the flexibility that few other countries can enjoy through what is likely to be a difficult transition.

28 September 2012

References:

Lawson, C. 2012. Aviation lock-in and emissions trading, Cambridge Journal of Economics 36(5): 1221-1243.

McManners, P. J. (2012) Fly and be Damned: What now for aviation and climate change? UK: Zed Books.