4 Conclusion
73. Although the concept of
deterrence is most commonly thought of in respect of the nuclear
deterrent, the ability of the Armed Forces to deter threats worldwide
to the UK's interests is integral to the National Security Tasks
and applies to all branches of the UK's security apparatus.
74. The deterrence of threats
to national interests is made more complex by the greater significance
of asymmetric threats compared to the Cold War strategic context,
but is still a concept fundamental to national security. We call
on the Government to use the opportunity of the 2015 Defence and
Security Review (DSR) to set out more of its thinking on the role
all parts of Government play in deterring asymmetric threats,
including those from the ideologically driven and radicalised.
75. It also needs to be emphasised
that, even in this new strategic context, NATO remains the cornerstone
of UK deterrence and we call on the Government to ensure that
the 2015 Defence and Security Review focuses also on how the UK
can best contribute to the Alliance. Recent events in Ukraine
not only illustrate the importance of NATO to UK security, but
bring into question the continued relevance of the categorisation
of threats in the current National Security Strategy. The 2015
National Security Strategy must reflect that threats to UK security
include the re-emergence of state threats that we may have been
tempted to think had diminished with the end of the Cold War.
These state threats may become manifest in a range of ways, including
through attack with CBRN weapons, conventional forces, terrorist
proxies or cyber capabilities. We will return to this point in
our overarching report on Towards the next Defence and Security
Review, later in the year.
76. The UK Armed Forces have
a deterrent capacity dependent on calculations of their capability
and on perceptions of the UK's readiness to use force when the
need arises. We are concerned that recent comments by Robert Gates,
former US Defence Secretary, about the UK's value as a military
partner for the US in the wake of defence cuts, illustrate a deterioration
in perceptions abroad of the UK's military capabilities. The 2015
Defence and Security Review must be drafted with reference to
the Armed Forces' continuing deterrent capability and decisions
around the MoD's financial settlement in the next Comprehensive
Spending Review must be made in the light of the need to retain
a credible deterrent capacity in the country's Armed Forces. A
failure to do so could have significant implications for the country's
security. Credible conventional forces are also essential to maintain
the credibility of the nuclear deterrent.
77. We conclude that deterrence,
both nuclear and conventional, has an important place in the defence
philosophy of the UK but will increasingly form part of a more
complex security strategy alongside greater need for resilience
and recovery as the world becomes more multi-polar and less stable
and where the certainties of identifying an aggressor may be reduced.
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