2 Foreign, security and defence policy
SNP Foreign, Security and Defence
policy update
11. At its annual conference in October 2012, the
SNP agreed a Foreign, Security and Defence policy update which
included a commitment to maintain NATO membership—something
to which the Party had previously been opposed—subject to
an agreement that an independent Scotland would not host nuclear
weapons.[6]
12. Other key elements of the policy included:
- an annual defence and security budget of £2.5bn;
- Scottish defence and peacekeeping services which
would be answerable to the Scottish Government and Scottish Parliament;
- Scottish armed forces would comprise 15,000 regular
and 5,000 reserve personnel;
- a Joint Forces Headquarters based at Faslane,
which would be Scotland's main conventional naval facility;
- a Scottish air force would operate from Lossiemouth
and Leuchars;
- all current bases would be retained to accommodate
[army] units, which would be organised into one regular and one
reserve Multi Role Brigade (MRB);[7]
- regular ground forces would include current Scottish
raised and "restored" UK regiments, support units as
well as Special Forces and Royal Marines, who would retain responsibility
for offshore protection; and
- a sovereign SNP government would negotiate the
speediest safe transition of the nuclear fleet from Faslane which
would be replaced by conventional naval forces.[8]
The full text of the policy update is reproduced
in the Appendix to this report.
13. During the course of our inquiry it became clear
that, since its ratification at the SNP Party conference in 2012,
certain aspects of the policy had changed as the Scottish Government
set about the task of preparing its White Paper on independence.
For example, the concept of a Multi Role Brigade and the commitment
to maintain two air bases had changed. These changes are discussed
in more detail later in our report.
POSSIBLE THREATS
14. In its policy update, the SNP states that "conventional
military threats to Scotland are low", but that it is "important
to maintain appropriate security and defence arrangements and
capabilities".[9]
15. In a report, A' the Blue Bonnets,[10]
published by RUSI in October 2012, Lieutenant Colonel (Retd) Stuart
Crawford and Richard Marsh set out in some detail one possible
vision of how an independent Scotland might organise its defence
policy and its armed forces. They reached the view that the potential
military threats to an independent Scotland "would seem to
be very low" and concluded that any threats "would likely
be limited to infringements of airspace and coastal integrity,
and the security of oil and gas rigs and other economic assets
like fishing grounds".[11]
16. George Grant, however, in a report published
by The Henry Jackson Society, concluded that an independent Scotland
would "very likely be confronted with many of the same risks,
and to at least as great an extent, which it faces as part of
the UK". Such threats would include cyber crime; instability
overseas; disruption to oil and gas supplies; and international
terrorism.[12]
FOREIGN POLICY
17. The SNP's policy update states that "an
independent Scotland will be an outward-looking nation which is
open, fair and tolerant, contributing to peace, justice and equality",
and contains a commitment to become a non-nuclear member of NATO.
It also establishes a regional rather than worldwide focus, driven
by interests in the North Sea, North Atlantic and the Arctic Region,
which Scotland shares with northern European neighbours. It is
also anticipated that an independent Scotland would be a full
member of the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) of the
European Union and the Organisation for Cooperation and Security
in Europe (OSCE).[13]
18. The absence of more detail about the foreign
policy for an independent Scotland has implications for the development
of the associated defence and security policies. In oral evidence,
Stuart Crawford explained the difficulties:
Without [a foreign policy], it is very difficult
to decide what you would want your Armed Forces to do. And if
you do not know what you want your Armed Forces to do, you don't
know how to configure them. And if you don't know how to configure
them, you don't know how much they are going to cost.[14]
19. Rear Admiral Martin Alabaster, former Flag Officer
Scotland, Northern England, Northern Ireland, Flag Officer Reserves
and Flag Officer Regional Forces, told us that when trying to
assess what kind of defence force an independent Scotland would
need or want, it was necessary to start from the basis of what
the foreign and security policy was and an assessment of what
it was that you wanted that defence force to do.[15]
Similarly, Air Marshal (Retd) Iain McNicoll, former Deputy Commander-in-Chief
Operations, Royal Air Force, expressed the view that there was
a requirement for a "proper foreign and security policy"
which could then be translated into defence needs and how these
might be met. He said:
I do not believe that those who propose separation
have got as far as doing any of the considerable amount of work
that would be needed to define exactly what might be required.[16]
Scottish Government policy position
20. When he appeared before us, Keith Brown MSP,
Scottish Government Minister for Transport and Veterans, acknowledged
that the threats facing an independent Scotland would not be "radically
different" from those currently facing the UK. He pointed
specifically to the protection of energy assets, maritime security,
drugs and terrorism. Looking further afield, he continued:
We would contribute to international efforts
where we believed it was in the interests of the people of Scotland
to do so. We would seek to be a good neighbour in the world and
a good partner with our partner countries—those in the immediate
area—and our policy is to be a member of NATO.[17]
THE SCOTTISH GOVERNMENT WHITE PAPER
21. When asked to provide more detailed information
about various aspects of the defence and security policy his Government
was preparing, in many areas, Mr Brown declined to give a commitment,
referring instead to the forthcoming White Paper which he said
would contain the detail that was lacking at present. He told
us:
our plans will be presented in detail first of
all to the people of Scotland well in advance of the referendum,
allowing them to take a fully informed decision.[18]
22. Our scrutiny of the SNP's updated Foreign,
Defence and Security policy has revealed a large number of questions
which remain to be answered by the Scottish Government in advance
of the referendum in 2014. Much of the detail has still to be
produced and we will await the Scottish Government's forthcoming
White Paper with keen interest. This document, once published,
needs to provide answers to the unanswered questions for Scottish
voters. They will wish to understand better how the defence of
an independent Scotland would be configured should there be a
"Yes" vote in September 2014. It will be for the Scottish
Government to make its case that an independent Scotland can sustain
an appropriate level of defence and security.
6 SNP members vote to ditch the party's anti-Nato
policy. Available at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-19993694
Back
7
HM Government (2010). Securing Britain in an Age of Uncertainty:
The Strategic Defence and Security Review. This envisaged
a British Army structured around five multi-role brigades. www.direct.gov.uk/prod_consum_dg/groups/dg_digitalassets/@dg/@en/documents/digitalasset/dg_191634.pdf
Back
8
SNP. Foreign, Security and Defence Policy Update, October 2012 Back
9
SNP. Foreign, Security and Defence Policy Update, October 2012 Back
10
Royal United Services Institute, A' the Blue Bonnets,Whitehall
Report 3-12 www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/Whitehall_Report_3-12.pdf Back
11
Ibid, page 3. Back
12
In Scotland's Defence? An Assessment of SNP Defence Strategy,
The Henry Jackson Society 2013 Back
13
SNP. Foreign, Security and Defence Policy Update, October 2012 Back
14
Q 33 Back
15
Q 126 Back
16
Q 126 Back
17
Q 266 Back
18
Q 261 Back
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