3 The role of Ofqual in qualifications design
67. It is accepted that the regulatory body bears some responsibility for the events of last summer. For example, Lord Justice Elias concluded that the structure of English GCSE qualifications was the source of the difficulties experienced in 2012 and that the structural problems with GCSE English may have been "of Ofqual's own making (or at least, Ofqual's predecessor)".[82] Ofqual itself criticised decisions made by its predecessor bodies in the design of the current English GCSEs in its November 2012 report, which found that:
curriculum considerations and a common approach for qualifications appear to have been given more weight than standards when the new qualifications were proposed. Little attention seems to have been given to the difficulties of maintaining standards in a set of new qualifications of such complexity.[83]
The question therefore arises of how these problems occurred and precisely which body was responsible.
68. The qualifications development phase of the current English GCSEs, from late 2007 to late 2009, coincided with a period of organisational change for the regulator, whereby the regulatory function was separated from the Qualifications and Curriculum Authority (QCA), a non-departmental public body reporting to Ministers, and an independent regulator, reporting to Parliament, was established. From April 2008 until April 2010 Ofqual operated in interim form as a regulator, but part of QCA, pending changes in legislation.
69. The interim regulator did not have any statutory powers and was not established as an independent body. A sub-committee of the QCA board was created, chaired by a QCA board member. The framework for the operation of the interim regulator was set by a direction from the Secretary of State issued under the Education Act 1997, and by memoranda of understanding between the then Department for Children, Schools and Families and QCA, and between QCA and the interim regulator.[84] On 1 April 2010 Ofqual was established by the Apprenticeship, Skills, Children and Learning (ASCL) Act 2009, as a non-ministerial government department, reporting directly to Parliament.[85]
The impact of organisational change on qualifications development
70. According to Ofqual, QCA developed the GCSE qualification criteria for the current English GCSEs in late 2007.[86] It was then that the decision was made by the QCA board that all GCSEs would have 0, 25 or 60 per cent controlled assessment. In July 2008, QCA developed and consulted on new GCSE English subject criteria.[87] In 2009 exam boards developed new English GCSEs in accordance with the qualification and subject criteria. The interim Ofqual accredited the current English GCSEs in December 2009, for first teaching in September 2009.[88] Ofqual's Director of Standards, Dennis Opposs, told us:
The arrangement in 2008 was that it was QCA who was responsible for developing the criteria, for consulting on them and for finalising them, and then passing them to Interim Ofqual. It was not Interim Ofqual's job at that time to keep a close eye on, or be responsible for, the development of the subject criteria. Interim Ofqual's job was to pick up those criteria at the end and then sign them off.[89]
71. Evidence from the exam boards suggests that they raised their concerns about the design of the current English GCSEs with the interim regulator, rather than QCA, although they stressed that the interim regulator was smaller and lacked the assessment expertise which Ofqual now has.[90] Mark Dawe of OCR told us that "they say [Ofqual], 'it is not us', but it was the original form of the regulator that caused some of these problems with the original design".[91]
72. Ofqual rejected the suggestion that organisational change was linked to the problems with the design of the current English GCSEs, although Glenys Stacey did acknowledge the commonly held view that substantial change can increase the risk of problems, "because you are imposing an additional demand on your very senior managers."[92] She told us that "I have seen no evidence to suggest that any turf war or difficulty of creating the new organisation actually has any relevance to those decisions [about qualifications design]."[93] Dennis Opposs stressed that proper care and attention was taken in the original design of the current English GCSEs and that "it would have been very difficult, thinking back to 2008, to imagine the sorts of scenarios that we saw in schools in 2012".[94]
73. Ms Stacey was critical of the way that the interim regulator had been encouraged to brand itself as a different organisation, when it lacked independent powers and authority.[95] She was also clear that having the regulator part of the curriculum authority, as was the case in QCA, had meant that the design rules gave "undue weight to curriculum considerations and did not give sufficient regard to the complexity of awarding or to standards".[96] This, she argued, underlined the need for an independent regulator, separate from curriculum policy.[97]
74. The fact that the qualifications design phase of the current English GCSEs coincided with a period of organisational change for the regulator has made it challenging for us to understand who did what and when. The evidence we heard would suggest that there is confusion even among the exam boards, who were closely involved at the time. While we accept Ofqual's argument that organisational change did not directly contribute to the structural problems with English GCSEs, it illustrates the point made by Cambridge Assessment to our previous inquiry that the greatest threat to standards comes at moments of change, even if that change is broadly welcomed.[98]
75. Contrasting evidence from the exam boards and Ofqual would suggest some confusion about roles and responsibilities with regard to qualifications development while the interim Ofqual was still part of QCA. Encouraging the interim Ofqual to brand itself as a different organisation when it remained a sub-committee of the QCA may have led to confusion over its role, responsibilities and powers at the time.
76. Ofqual is now responsible for developing, consulting on and finalising the aspects of new qualifications that it regulates, such as assessment structures and grading arrangements, and for accrediting the qualifications. We believe that the decision to separate regulation from curriculum policy and to establish an independent regulator was sound and that the current status of the regulator, independent from Government, and accountable to Parliament, is the right one, but current developments will put this to the test (see Forthcoming A level and GCSE reforms below).
Warning voices
77. Exam board representatives told us that they raised concerns about the current English GCSEs during the development and accreditation phase, regarding the high proportion of controlled assessment and technical difficulties in standards and awarding. Ofqual's November 2012 report supports this, stating that "we understand that English subject experts in exam boards tried unsuccessfully to keep proportions as they were, and influence the balance ultimately struck by QCA".[99] Glenys Stacey also agreed that "it is true to say that technical experts—in my view, late in the day—raised concerns about the difficulty of awarding in modular qualifications, modular GCSEs. It was not particularly English, but modular GCSEs".[100] She confirmed that the concerns were considered but no changes were made, as this "really would have been undermining entirely the concept of modularisation".[101]
78. Mark Dawe of OCR told us, "if there are lessons learned, it is that when all the awarding bodies [exam boards] are saying, 'This will not work. This will cause problems.' They should not be ignored".[102] Ofqual has acknowledged that:
the views of technical assessment experts in exam boards matter, and they need to be consulted as new qualifications are designed. There is some evidence that this did not happen sufficiently or at the right time when these GCSEs were being designed by our predecessor body.[103]
79. It is clear that warning voices regarding potential problems were raised but not acted upon during the development and accreditation phases of the current English GCSEs. While innovation and change is healthy and essential in any examination system, one of the crucial lessons that must be learned from this episode is that Ofqual and Ministers should listen when concerns are raised, especially when they come from specialists in the field. Balancing innovation and change with sound, specialist advice is the hallmark of a robust and high quality examination system.
Forthcoming GCSE and A level reforms
80. On 6 February 2013 the Secretary of State announced that the Government would like to see new GCSEs in English language, English literature, mathematics, biology, chemistry, physics, combined science (double award), history and geography introduced for first teaching in September 2015, for first examination in summer 2017. These new GCSEs would be available to schools from autumn 2014 to assist with planning. Changes to GCSEs in the remaining subjects to follow as soon as possible after that, with the aim that they are introduced for first teaching in September 2016, for first examination in summer 2018.
81. Significant reforms to A levels are due to take place at the same time. The Government would like A levels in the "facilitating" subjects except languages, namely English (language, literature and language & literature), mathematics and further mathematics, physics, chemistry, biology, history and geography, to be developed for first teaching in September 2015, for first examination in summer 2017. This is a year later than originally planned, a delay to which the Secretary of State agreed following advice from Ofqual.[104] The new timetable, as Ofqual noted in a recent letter to the Secretary of State, "aligns with the GCSE subjects being reformed to the same timescale, and promotes coherence between the subject content for new GCSEs and A levels".[105]
82. Ofqual has also agreed that a further six A level subjects with high numbers of entries will be reformed for first introduction in September 2015 and first examination in summer 2017.[106] According to Ofqual, revised A level in subjects covering about 70 per cent of entries will be introduced to this timetable. Ofqual's letter of 21 March 2013 to the Secretary of State does not specify the timetable for the reform of remaining A level subjects, but its website indicates that the second group of subjects will be introduced for first teaching in September 2016 and first examination in summer 2018.[107]
83. Ofqual will clearly have a pivotal role in the development of the new GCSE and A level qualifications. Its key task, as Glenys Stacey stated in a letter to the Secretary of State, is to make sure that standards are right.[108] This task becomes especially challenging at times of change, when the risk of volatility in the exam system is increased. As Ofqual stated recently, "when qualifications change, results vary more than normal—both between schools and from year to year— and this variability is inevitable for several years as reforms work their way through the system".[109] Increased variability is therefore to be expected, particularly following significant reform of both GCSEs and A levels.
84. Ofqual has described the timetable set out by the Government for qualifications reform as "challenging"[110] and has indicated that it would, if necessary, delay the reforms. Glenys Stacey has also warned that "the introduction of new GCSEs and A levels at the same time will place a considerable burden on schools and the effect of this should be monitored."[111]
85. Ofqual's statutory framework requires it to have regard to Government policy steers, but not, as Glenys Stacey pointed out to us, to follow them slavishly.[112] There are signs that this may be particularly relevant in connection with the forthcoming GCSE reforms and the issue of tiering. The Secretary of State is concerned that tiered assessments place a cap on ambition, by limiting foundation tier students' attainment to a grade C. He has indicated that he would like reformed GCSEs to avoid tiering.[113] Ofqual has indicated that there may be some difficulties with this approach, with Glenys Stacey describing it to the Times Educational Supplement as "quite a challenge, really".[114] She was clear about Ofqual's role in evidence to us, stating that:
it is Ofqual's job to determine whether or not new GCSEs will be tiered or whether there is a better arrangement that could ensure that these qualifications remain universal, as the Secretary of State has asked, and remain as accessible to the same proportion of students as they are now [...] we will make the right decision [...] it may be tiering; it may not, but we have a job to do to get to the right solution.[115]
86. We asked the Secretary of State recently to clarify the respective roles and responsibilities of the Department for Education and Ofqual regarding qualifications development. Mr Gove told us that "we [the DfE] give a broad indication in terms of curriculum content and how we wish syllabuses to look. They take the final decisions on whether any of our suggestions are consistent with standards being maintained over time. By definition, there is dialogue".[116] Following his oral evidence, the Secretary of State sent us a written statement of how the DfE considered that this arrangement with Ofqual will work.[117]
87. The Government is embarking upon the most significant and wide-ranging reforms to GCSEs and A levels since Ofqual was established as an independent regulator and has set a challenging timetable. We recommend that the DfE and Ofqual set out in detail their respective roles and responsibilities in qualifications development, particularly regarding how subject content will be developed, and publish this information before their respective consultations on the proposed GCSE reforms have ended.
88. We welcome signs that Ofqual is itself prepared to be a warning voice on qualifications reform to Ministers, if it judges this to be necessary, and we were pleased to see that Ministers acted upon Ofqual's advice in connection with qualifications and market reform earlier in 2013.
89. Ofqual has taken steps to increase its assessment expertise, as recommended in our 2012 exams report. Ofqual must use this expertise to heed warning voices and take on board technical arguments in qualifications design for the forthcoming GCSE and A level reforms. It should be prepared to put a robust case to Government, should those arguments be contrary to Government policy steers.
90. Ofqual's role in qualification design is likely to come under significant pressure in coming months as the proposed timetable for GCSE reform coincides with significant changes to A levels. Ofqual should ensure that it has in place robust systems and adequate resourcing to undertake this role effectively, and that it gives explicit advice to Ministers about the risks involved in reforming GCSEs and A levels at the same time. It also needs to raise public awareness of the likelihood of increased variability in results during times of significant changes to qualifications.
82 Judgement, paragraph 152 Back
83 Ofqual second report, paragraph 1.48 Back
84 See Ofqual second report, paragraphs 7.2-7.7 Back
85 Introducing Ofqual, 2010/11, Ofqual 2010 Back
86 GCSE qualification criteria stipulate the structure of GCSEs and their assessment and grading arrangements, as well as their general aims. The regulator produces the GCSE qualification criteria, in line with Government policy steers, and consults upon them. Back
87 In some subjects (mostly high entry subjects, where more than one exam board offers a GCSE), GCSE subject criteria are produced. These contain more subject specific rules, such as the assessment objectives and the proportion of internal assessment. Back
88 See Ofqual second report, paragraphs 4.1 to 4.26 and 7.1 to 7.22 Back
89 Q368 (Glenys Stacey) Back
90 Q180-181 (Ziggy Liaquat), Q182-183 Back
