7 Conclusion
142. Although the judicial review endorsed the actions of Ofqual and the exam boards, we agree with Ofqual's assessment that there are some very sobering lessons to be learned from the events with GCSE English in 2012 and that the experience has engendered a great deal of mistrust. Confidence in the exam system has been shaken and a substantial amount of public money has been spent. Many teachers and pupils still feel that the action taken by Ofqual and the exam boards was unfair, even though it was found to be lawful.
143. Lord Justice Elias noted in his judgement that whichever way Ofqual chose to resolve the problems with GCSE English last year, there was going to be an element of unfairness. Once it became clear that the January cohort had been assessed more leniently, Ofqual was engaged in an exercise of "damage limitation." The judge concluded that at some stage, a decision would have to be taken to depart from the January grade boundaries, which were pitched too low, in order to protect standards and the currency of the GCSE English qualification, and at this point, there would be winners and losers. The judge endorsed Ofqual's decision to prioritise comparable standards between 2011 and 2012. The relatively small number of students from the January exams received slightly generous results, while the majority of students, the June cohort, received results which were line with previous years.
144. The 2013 results will be crucial in helping to restore confidence in the exam system and in the assessment of GCSE English in particular. Overall, we believe that measures put in place since last summer, along with further proposed changes, should help to strengthen assessment and moderation in the current English GCSEs and make them more resistant to pressures from the accountability system. The increased variability in results between schools came about because it was a new and very flexible qualification. We note Ofqual's warning that GCSE English is still a relatively new qualification and that some variation school by school in this year's results is to be expected. All will be watching the 2013 results very closely.
145. Lord Justice Elias attributed the source of the unfairness with GCSE English to the structure of the qualification itself. This underlines the vital importance of getting decisions right during the qualifications design phase. We are reassured that changes since 2007 and the establishment of an independent regulator with greater statutory powers and increased assessment expertise should facilitate this.
146. We welcome Ofqual's indication that in future it will take into account the context in which qualifications will operate during qualifications development. Careful attention needs to be paid on a subject by subject basis to the balance of internal and external assessment, and to setting appropriate marking tolerances. Ofqual must ensure that sufficient attention is paid to any warning voices, particularly from subject and assessment specialists, during qualifications design and accreditation. The lessons to be learned from GCSE English for qualifications design are especially important as the exam system is facing multiple reforms, with fundamental changes to GCSEs due to take place at the same time as significant reforms to A levels. We need to be prepared for increased variability in results, as this is more likely at moments of substantial change.
147. The Secretary of State has shown that he is prepared to act on the advice of the Chief Regulator regarding changes to the exam system and qualifications. We recommend that the Government continues to have serious regard to Ofqual's advice on qualifications design in the forthcoming GCSE and A level reforms. We also recommend that Ofqual ensures it has systems and procedures in place for qualifications design which are sufficiently resourced and appropriately robust to enable it to meet the significant challenges ahead and to secure high quality qualifications for young people.
148. Young people and their future life chances are at the heart of this matter. It is important not to underestimate or forget the impact on those who took the GCSE English exam in 2012 and those who are taking it this year. It is essential to stress that, despite the problems highlighted in this report, students, both in 2012 and 2013, will have gained a GCSE English qualification that is a meaningful and valid reflection of their achievements, and that should enable them to progress to further education and employment.
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